Member Info for Boyobach

It’s worth revisiting this 13 month comparison just to remind ourselves that, whilst G has certainly had its bad moments during the year, it’s doing as well as the best of them in this particular race. If Oil was back at $86 today G’s sp would logically be around 285….
https://invst.ly/nwmyz

Got the first link wrong - should have been the three year view: https://invst.ly/nwma1

Well done Broadland! what a difference 24 hours and a dollop of positive update can do!
I've cast my Hallowe'en Ouija Board onto the eternal flames of history.

Today was a big deal, not least because G impressed the market with an update!

A picture is worth at least a thousand words - and the three year view of G puts today’s price move into context: punching through the orange wedge line that Rangor mentioned a few days ago and advancing towards that key trend at around 210:
https://invst.ly/nwkbs

Here’s a closer view v 3x Brent: https://invst.ly/nwkbs ,where G ended the day on a cracking ratio of 3.36x Brent (LCO)

It’s making G’s progress since 10th October look all the more impressive: https://invst.ly/nwkjq
16% up over the period whilst OP only up 2% and GKP, RDS and DNO all down, even against OP.

Well it's finally touched 200p and 3.3x OP so let's see what happens when the US market opens this afternoon...

Yes indeed Hydrogen - ratio up to 3.29x last time I checked. A very encouraging response to the Update. Let's hope this marks something of a watershed.

Looks like my Ouija board is working better than yours this Hallowe'en Mayor Bunks ! Ha Ha Ha Ha ....... ghoulish laughter fades as OP slides into the gloom.....along with my hard earned cash......
Boyo 192
Withoutt 195
Mayor Bunks 197
Wolfbag 199
Hawkey 201
broadland 204
ocelot 210

Cheers Hydrogen, Hasiba - as a long term holder (sufferer) I like those answers.

Do G investors want more production at today's OP, so potentially driving it down, or do they want more reserves to stay in the ground to feed future demand at higher prices?
Difficult to answer? Here's another question:
G v Op ratio at today's close was, by my reckoning, 3.2x: it's a recent high, so will that ratio be sustained by the market if OP continues at current levels or falls? As a holder I hope so, as a 'sometimes trader' I suspect not.

Presumably because of impairments:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/10/31/1938453/0/en/DNO-Reports-Third-Quarter-2019-Results.html
Financial results were impacted by impairment charges of USD 138 million, including USD 89 million for technical goodwill on the Brasse discovery (Norway) and USD 33 million for decommissioning of the Schooner and Ketch fields (United Kingdom).
https://invst.ly/nr67l

Oil to go up? Nah:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Fall-As-EIA-Reports-Large-Crude-Build.html

Seems risky to publish an article like this on a Wednesday - EIA report day - almost like imitating the self-shredding Banksy, though that did, at least, go up in value....

Yep - I was reacting to this morning's excellent start and the previous ten straight days of gain. Sometimes, maybe, I overcompensate for being a bit gloomy here!
That said, G really is making progress this month and is moving ahead of the other small co's and chasing the majors in the usual group when viewed over a twelve month period. I've even thought of buying back the tranche I sold a few days ago but will wait to see what happens to OP first
https://invst.ly/no-tf

Something other than OP certainly seems to be driving G at the moment: Gv 3xBrent : https://invst.ly/no1bs ,
Last three weeks Brent v G,GKP, DNO,RDS : https://invst.ly/no1nj

Yes Rangor - I do tend to take profits a bit earlier than maybe I should. I don't pretend to be particularly good at timing the market - just like some people have difficulty clapping exactly in time to a rhythm. I work on the basis that it's never wrong to take a profit, even if you could have achieved a bit more.

Despite my gloomy thoughts about OP, I do recognise that G is performing pretty well ATM although the G:Brent ratio is still below 3.2x, so hardly spectacular

Nevertheless, these are interesting times. Very noticeable today that G held up around mid day despite an obvious fall in OP. I think this has happened before recently and it strikes me as a possible sign that there is concerted buying going on - shares being hoovered up in a similar manner to the buyback. So are significant numbers of shares being accumulated but using a technique that avoids the usual hike in price when shares are bought in quantity? I simply don’t know - pure speculation.

Also, as Rangor has pointed out, G is currently on the point of breaking through some historic ‘wedge’ patterns - upper trend lines that it has not conquered in years. Because they are historic they are not accurately placed but, in theory, they have marked the top as far as G is concerned for a very long time. So, without moving up dramatically, G could effectively be ‘breaking out’. Here’s a closer look at those orange and blue lines posted earlier in the 'Sold a Few' thread: https://invst.ly/nmy1r . The placing of these is highly subjective - so, as with all such charts, they may be indicative but don’t rely on them

Meanwhile Brent is down but admittedly not yet as decisively as I expect it to be.

Well there's certainly a wedge there Rangor - and also one going back five years. https://invst.ly/nm3oy Yes, chartists (I don't count myself as one as I really only look at trends) do make a big deal of these and sometimes they are a big deal. In my limited experience wedges are just two trend lines converging and so the price is bound to break through one or the other. Whilst this can 'take the lid off' - effectively a break up or down - I don't necessarily think the price will rocket (or collapse) as a result. But, it's no bad thing provided it doesn't break downwards of course! However, G is so tied to OP that I'm not convinced the usual behaviours apply.

I confess to selling a few G today and taking a profit. That’s no reflection on my long term view of G, or the comments I made to Rangor over the weekend. But trading is trading - and you have to do it when the hunch is strong.

Today, as Hawkey has said, G did pretty well. To prove that, the sp ratio to Brent held at 3.1x despite a slight fall back in OP. The sp hit a max around 193p

But let’s look at Brent:
https://invst.ly/nkg7a
Does this chart look promising of an increase to you? It doesn’t to me but, hey, oil moves in mysterious ways. It’s always a ‘bet’ rather than a considered investment.

I have earned more through trading G than from capital gain in the last twelve months, and I have never traded more than 20% of the capital employed. I also maxed out on the dividend by making sure that I was fully stocked-up on ex-d date.

Up or down from here - G is a winner for me.

I agree Hawkey - the Chevron guy could hardly say anything different .
OPEC and Russia, though, are probably in a total dilemma about US Shale. They want Op to be $80+ but there's no chance given the volume that the US produces at below $50 WTI. Their options for bankrupting US producers are running out because the likes of Chevron will buy up the distressed assets and produce the same volumes without the high borrowing levels.
So oil producers (including G) pump more of the stuff to maintain market share and revenues, causing OP to fall, causing producers to pump even more..... etc etc
It's a mug's game at the moment.

Chevron sees Permian boom continuing. Chevron (NYSE: CVX) dismissed rising concerns about the longevity of the shale boom. “We see a long, healthy pace of activity in the Permian and Texas for decades to come,” Steve Green, president of Chevron’s North American business, said at a forum sponsored by the Texas Oil & Gas Association.
'Oil Bulls Broken By Economic Fears'
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Bulls-Broken-By-Economic-Fears.html

if you like that story, here's something similar:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shale-doubters-finally-moment-revolution-110023765.html
However, fewer companies does not mean less oil - production is still growing, just not as fast. And, the majors are getting bigger in those regions. So don't expect a shortage of the black stuff anytime soon.