Member Info for Boyobach

Well something does seem to be driving the sp, Hydrogen.
There’s been a perceptible improvement in G’s sp since the 8th October, which is best demonstrated in this chart https://invst.ly/m8qnf which shows that Brent today is at the same level (0% gain) as on the 8th whilst G is up over 5% and the others are all down - GKP especially. PMO is not shown here btw - but has also had a good run.

Just to underline the cheerful aspect to G at the moment...
OP's 2019 peak was at around $73 in mid May - in case you blinked and missed it - and from that point to today (not throughout the period in between btw) G has performed better than most of the other usual suspects. G is matching RDS over the same period to today. https://invst.ly/m6pba . These things can be deceptive - PMO is also looking good at the moment, considering it has had a pretty dire time, this is due to some good news last week I believe.
Not too shabby as Hawkey might say...

Here's a Bloomberg opinion piece that suggests KSA should crash the price of oil to put the Shale guys under more pressure
It's NOT my opinion BTW:
Saudi Arabia’s Best Bet Is to Crash the Price of Oil
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/saudi-arabias-best-bet-is-to-crash-theprice-of-oil/2019/10/20/0a77a830-f308-11e9-bb7e-d2026ee0c199_story.html
The OPEC+ agreement was meant to drain excess stockpiles in six months. But we are now approaching a fourth year of Saudi Arabia leading a global alliance of producers in trying — and failing — to push up oil prices in a sustainable way.
For a while it appeared that the cuts were having the desired effect. Inventories came down and Brent prices rose from about $45 a barrel in June 2017 to reach a high of $86 in October 2018. But they swiftly fell back towards $50 and a second round of cuts that began in January has failed to keep them above $60. Even the temporary loss of more than half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production — and most of the world’s spare capacity — in an attack on two of the kingdom’s biggest processing facilities The latest data from OPEC itself — along with the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Administration — show the failure of the policy.
All three see global oil inventories building in the first half of next year in the face of what is starting to look like America’s forever trade war. The global gridlock has also prompted a reduction in forecasts for growth in oil demand this year and next. The average level of Saudi oil production in the first eight months of 2019 was the lowest since 2014 — even excluding the dip caused by the Sept. 14 attacks on the kingdom’s oil processing infrastructure. And it will have to come down further next year if the kingdom wants to continue trying to manage the market.
Meanwhile Russia, the kingdom’s leading partner in the OPEC+ group of countries that came together to manage supply, has seen its output continue to rise each year, even as it has come to dominate OPEC+ policymaking.
Saudi Arabia should let American shale drillers take the strain. After all, aren’t they the producers of the marginal barrel of crude now? As long as Saudi Arabia and its cohorts continue to restrict output and subsidize shale they are merely delaying an answer to the question.
It’s time to discover a true price of oil.

It’s been a while since I paid much attention to G from a chart pov. This is because it is fairly slavishly locked to OP. That situation hasn’t really changed much but recently it has bubbled up above OP slightly and is having a good day today so far, moving up despite a falling OP, so it’s probably worth a recap on what we need from G.

In simple terms, the green trace on this chart https://invst.ly/m6csg is 3xBrent (LCO) closing prices with its current or last closing price (x3) marked by the green dashed line. The daily candles are G, of course with the latest price marked by the red dashed line.

In general we need G to be above 3x Brent by the best possible margin. When it falls below then it is underperforming relative to its average performance v Brent. When G starts to really perform then I’ll be able to plot it against 3.5x or even 4x Brent. As a guide, if G gets to the levels indicated by recent broker figures - approaching 300p - then the ratio at $60 Brent will be 5x. Ha! So now you get the reason I’m not hanging on their every word just yet.

Other lines on the chart are:
Pale red parallels: the previous and now weaker rising trend
Blue parallels: the current rising trend.
Orange: an historic falling trend which G hasn’t bettered since August 2018 (so don’t dismiss it as a potential factor as G progressively approaches it).
Grey horizontals mark potential resistance (going up) and support (going down) - an sp may simply cycle between these

If G starts to make headway then you can expect to see it punch upwards through successive trend lines.

.....another gloomy entry.
I think OP is likely to be heading down. So my entry is based on $58.5 Brent and a ratio of 3.05x (about average for G recently). G should be capable of, and would justify, a much higher price if its market valuation was more realistic.

Boyo 178
Wolfbag 184
Withoutt 189
Bunks 193
Hawkey 200
Broadland 202
ocelot 205

Thanks Hawkey: I’m very pleased and honoured to share this prestigious prize with the current holder Mayor bunks.

I’m sure that such gloomy sp predictions as ours will not prevail forever - for why else would I still be invested in G? On this occasion I’d expected OP to be nearer $61, or the middle blue trend line here: https://invst.ly/lgu-b . The only reason I’m on the podium today has more to do with G’s relative strength this week rather than any calculation on my part.

So, whatever the OP: Here’s to more advances by G v Brent in coming weeks!

Ha! Touch and go I see, bunks. Only OP can hand me the prize, I fear. .....

It's a shame the tussle isn't above 200p though. I'm starting to doubt that will happen this side of Christmas.

Thanks Ocelot - I was looking under 'Reports and Presentations' . Good to know. Cheers

A solid vision H - thanks for the summary.
Is there any other update due between now and the New Year? I assume not as there's nothing on G's website but it has been rumoured on this BB
Hopefully G's projects will lead to a steady sp improvement to realistic levels. I don't expect fireworks - especially whilst OP is below $65 .
Funding for Bina Bawi at an acceptable pace for the KRG appears to be an issue. Until it is green lit (and possibly until first oil) the market won't price it in.
Qara Dagh is tricky and an unknown quantity, apparently - a bonus if it works out as far as the market is concerned.

I think you'll find the big fish have either been written down, postponed indefinitely or are highly prospective.
G is what it is - Tawke (inc Peshkabir), what remains of Taq Taq, Sarta.
What else is about to be landed? Qara Dagh?

Premier is up because of its success with Tolmount East apparently.

For some reason, GKP enjoyed a peak v OP (and G) around mid August but it has been slipping back into line since then whilst G has recently held rather firmer.
A year ago it was not unusual for GKP to be around the same price as G and sometimes markedly lower.
It's swings and roundabouts - both GKP and G reached their 2019 peak in April but are now both back down to previous levels.
All oil co's in this chart https://invst.ly/kzd9s are currently falling except PMO which, despite being the weakest overall, is bucking the trend for some reason.

It’s about time that G started to deliver for us long-time, long suffering shareholders - who certainly deserve to see £3 for our trouble. Let’s hope G has shaken off all the bad luck that dogged the Tony and Guy era and that the ‘riches to rags’ chapters will be followed by a ‘happy ever after’ ending.

G’s lifetime chart https://invst.ly/kk6lz tells much of the story, I might stick around if G gets past 250 by next summer although 210 is currently top whack if oil stays near $60 (that’s a highly optimistic 3.5x OP). Any anal yst should be able to read the market and temper their enthusiasm for OTT forecasts accordingly.

In the meantime, prompted by Malcy’s annuity comment in that interview, I’m investing in alternative ‘annuities’ - RDSb is priced nicely at the moment and G will never catch it in terms of the last eight years performance (G would need to add £8 per share plus seven years of divis to match RDSb performance since G was launched).

Bunks: by 'Crazy' I'm assuming you are referring to the Anal ysts at Canaccord and elsewhere?

It was a subtle comment, Withoutt: they were also hired by G to perform the buybacks.

Canaccord? Name rings a bell.....

Yes - down a little now, I think - usually a good $0.5 above LCO .

G has done well v Brent over the last 5 trading days. Ratio still not up to 3.1x though - so no chance of 'shooting the moon' at 3.5x
https://invst.ly/khzfn

The Saudis tell porkies? Surely not!
Excellent article Hydrogen and more than a few grains of truth.
It is quite strange that the name Qasem Soleimani is so little heard in our news bulletins.

Malcy didn't really reveal anything new about G in this interview did he? Not that the interviewer seemed to be on top of the subject. A bit disappointing really: there's obviously no news concerning Bina B about to emerge and if I wanted an annuity I'd frankly be in RDS rather than G. I realise that Malcy was underlining the safe and stable aspect of an investment in G and that's fair enough if we are now talking about a non-volatile sp stuck in the region of 190p having a yield of around 6% for the foreseeable, although G would have a tough time competing with RDS on that basis. I'd love to know where analysts are plucking their 300p + targets from.