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Here are the usual suspects v Brent and FTSE100 for last week.
At least DNO’s sp knows how to respond to KRG payments:
https://invst.ly/u4nck
Up 20% over the week!
Meanwhile G seems to be levelling off at a modest 192 - or maybe I'm just too impatient.
https://invst.ly/u4ndg (15 minute view). A week ago I thought 197 was a realistic target with payment news imminent but the response to that was more subdued than I expected.
So, having been overweight G for most of the time since August , I decided to sell the excess today (20% of my holding which I’d acquired then for 116). A handy profit and some cash available if the price pulls back, which is starting to look more likely, especially with OP and company news having potentially peaked during the week. It’ll be interesting to see how the price moves next week, with FY Results on Mar 18th.

https://www.reuters.com/article/shell-trading/update-2-shells-oil-trading-earnings-double-in-2020-to-26-bln-idUSL1N2LA0S5

Fair comments Pokerchips, particularly in relation to what may be described as corruption.
My inference was necessarily delicate: in simple terms I'm thinking that PFC can no longer grease 'essential' wheels in the way that (maybe innocently via agents like Unaoil) it did in the past. Whereas competitors from certain countries - it's not difficult to suggest a few - might not experience the same ethical restraints. The price of a being 'clean' might well have been fewer orders from certain places over the years might it not?

Warthog says of the shorters: 'they are a bunch of avaricious bar stewards who don't give a toss about the company or its shareholders.'
That's one description but, more objectively, it's worth remembering that they are a shrewd bunch of professionals who are making a judgement which is based on risk/reward and not on emotions. I find it never helps me to be objective about an investment when the reasons for price movements are obscured by a red mist and pre-conceived assumptions.

Am I so confident about PFC that I'd bet against the shorters? No, I am not.
Have I taken my recent profits? Yes - entirely as of this week.
Have I covered my losses from my previous investment in PFC? No - recouped about 20%, so it's unfinished business.
Would I re-purchase PFC? Possibly but probably not before results and also with an eye on the short positions.
Do I think the SFO case is close to resolution? No - the work appears to be ongoing and the longer it takes then, in my view, the bigger the stakes for both the SFO and for PFC.
Is PFC going to return to its previous glory days? Partially perhaps - but I doubt it will fully. The founding individuals - especially all those named by SFO and the press - oversaw the peak of PFC's success during a period that has since been thrown into notoriety and which led to a well charted decline from 2013 that possibly reflects the internal change in culture as certain individuals moved on. The inference is clear and it will take a long time to re-establish reputation and relationships with key clients - possibly in competition with companies that may not be as squeaky clean as, hopefully, PFC is today.

Assisted by an apparently firm OP, the upward pressure on 1500 continues. Maybe it will bear fruit?
https://invst.ly/u4241

I guess 'CNBC Steve' (don't know of the fella myself) was talking in late January?
I think you only get a feel for the ongoing relationship between an oil major and OP by observing over a few months.
There doesn't seem to be much doubt about the influence here: https://invst.ly/u3ptf

This is an old thread now, Barrie - things have moved on a bit since I scribbled my post on the 8th Jan and I’ve refined my view of the relationship with OP since then. Whether the company uses cash to pay a dividend or to limit debt etc. seems somewhat immaterial to me - I think the sp ultimately reflects the value that the market believes is being generated.

Four points I'd make about the sp today are that
1) It is at an established point of resistance.
2) It is under the red line that marks its decline from 2600: https://invst.ly/u3o-m and from which it must break out.
3) It also happens to be at the bottom edge of the gap down from 1595 that dates from 9th March last year.
4) As I explained separately, it’s relationship with Brent swings either side of OP, which would coincidentally centre it near 1595 at the moment.
https://invst.ly/u3out

So, whilst the sp may be turned back this time, https://invst.ly/u3pop , particularly if the wider market drops, there’s little doubt in my mind about the underlying direction of travel.

Ah! j'ai compris.
So I think we basically agree, Tartine: G has recently been on course for 190 and will hopefully recapture 194, although nothing can be assumed and there'll probably be some profit taking on the way - like today, for example.
Looking at today's RNS and the current outlook for Brent, I think G could well be on track for full year 'contract' revenue approaching $320m but perhaps not reaching the $370m figure which I believe was given for 2019. I'd be surprised and delighted if they manage to exceed that.
I'm assuming a steady ramp up of Sarta, eventually drawing level with and offsetting decline at TaqTaq. I'm also assuming that Brent averages $60 over the whole year (I think the average was $64 in 2019) . Meanwhile, like you and probably the market, I don't have any expectations regarding BB etc. and, given its history, I'm not really expecting much of Qara Dagh either. On that basis, I'm inclined to think that the trading range for G's sp may be similar but narrower than it was through 2019, perhaps 195p +/- 25p . All of this is pure speculation of course!

I think your point about OP is valid Leem, the current price is supported by production cuts (OPEC+) and not by demand. This is why the likes of RDS and other majors are not tracking Brent back to their 2019 sp levels. However, G's sp is more directly related to OP as they do not have all the other baggage - they sell what they produce, so the equation is somewhat simpler.
$65 represents a sweet spot for KSA - too high and it stimulates overproduction, too low and it is insufficient for their economy.
They will strive to keep it near that level. G's sp is based on its earnings and will therefore respond to that.

I'm not sure I know what you mean by 'in the mire' Tartine?
Historically, looking mainly at the sp during 2019, 194 was a resistance level and G hasn't tackled that yet. So, for me, that's the next challenge, with 203 beyond that.
During 2019, G traded mainly between 165-203 although it did trade between 203 and 230 during February to May. 180 has provided some support in the past, so I'm optimistic that G won't drop below that whilst news remains positive.
https://invst.ly/u3jpz

Thanks Withoutt - this hasn't appeared on LSE yet.
I must number crunch this info. It hasn't boosted the sp further but maybe it will underpin the recent rally to 180+

Well spotted bunks.

The extent to which there is a relationship between OP and the sp is evident in this chart, which covers recent months and, specifically, the period of the rally in RDS from early November: https://invst.ly/u3h3-
The sp obviously weaves either side of the trend marked out by Brent (shown in green), with a relationship that currently estimates RDS at roughly 1200 at an OP of $51 +/- 22.5p per $1 variation in OP. This estimate would put RDS at about 1570 today, so it is running about 80p 'under par' by this measure. Obviously this relationship changes over time - particularly when RDS or the wider market undergoes a significant revaluation - but it can be a useful tool for gauging when the sp might be a bit toppy or at a potential top-up point.

There's nothing 'regrettable' about filtering Rach , Barrie - sh/he never had anything to say about RDS. Interesting use of the word 'board' though.
1500 was always going to be a resistance for RDS and there's an additional technicality (red) to overcome at the moment: https://invst.ly/u370w . It is also cheaper relative to OP than it was in early January. At that time, when OP was about $55, RDS was in the region of 1400 and worth about 20p for every $1 move in OP. So 1600 would not be an unreasonable target today.
When you compare with Brent (rebased here in green: https://invst.ly/u374l ) , it becomes apparent that there are reasonable prospects for RDS, along with other oil co's, even though OP is currently driven more by supply cuts than demand. I'm anticipating a break upwards as spring demand sets in.
ATB

Interesting that announcement of the KRG payment to GKP for Shaikan’s January production did not boost their sp. Perhaps the response here will prove similar.
Out of curiosity, here’s a chart comparing GKP with G and Brent since late 2019 - ie a comparison over the whole payment & covid-19 period to date. In this chart, G crosses Brent at 2.8xBrent.
https://invst.ly/u2-b4

A GKP RNS of yesterday afternoon regarding payment for Shaikan production in January is encouraging. Interesting to note that included a part payment in relation to the arrears from the outstanding November 2019 to February 2020 invoices. Hopefully G will receive and report similarly for all its producing fields.

Cheers AD66.
PFC has been a painful ride since the SFO saga started. At 8% (even more than the level that fateful May) the percentage of short positions today is not encouraging - running roughly where it was in October when the sp was around 118. This implies that, for the Hedgefunds, the SFO story and related drop in January hasn't materially changed things and they expect to see it go lower.
PFC's recovery from January has been so sluggish - it's never qualified as a bounce for me - that I've taken some profits and held on to just 33%, at a net cost of 60p per share after deducting the profits. I'll only add if there are more tangible indications of a solid base or recovery.

Well the end of day auction answered that point: https://invst.ly/u2pj9
Who knows - a good news RNS and a healthy opening price could secure 194, but it seems a big ask at the moment.

Only a week ago I was talking about 165 but despite a lacklustre day given Sarta and OP, G looks like it may recapture 180 in this 15 min view:https://invst.ly/u2p93 . Let's see what the UT dishes up. It wasn't too surprising to see it turned back just shy of the historic resistance at 194. There'd be no doubt about 180 or 194 if payments were on track: will be interesting to see the reaction if/when news emerges.