Member Info for Boyobach

Nice progress today by RDS, in line with the steadier OP which, as Nomad anticipated, seemed to stabilise a bit more quickly as a result of Ever Given blocking the Suez. Looking overall, there’s a neat regularity emerging, although the top line is flattening out - sp’s do not always follow a tramline path!
https://invst.ly/ua0pq
If I overlay Brent (green) then one possible reason becomes a bit clearer:
https://invst.ly/ua0pl
-it seems that RDS ran a bit ‘hot’ compared to OP during November through January but has now settled somewhat. Today there are signs of RDS breaking back up, although this will surely be dependant on OP, which may steadily pull back towards its ‘sweet spot’ of $65: https://invst.ly/ua0rt unless the eventual opening of the canal causes it to resume its downward course.

I find it useful to filter out the variations in sp which seem to be due to movements in OP. This is not a precise art and it inevitably requires adjustment from time to time but my current formula, which has worked for me over the last month is:
Nominal Sp = 1280p for Brent at $59 +/- 22p per $1 variation in Brent
At $63 Brent, for example, this would estimate RDS as nominally 1368
For me, the difference between this calculated ‘nominal’ and actual sp serves as an indication of how strongly RDS is actually performing.

Maybe - almost certainly if Brent drops to $60 or less.....
However, if Brent remains above $62 I thinks it's unlikely.

CWR still on a downward path for now, it seems:
https://invst.ly/u9pzr

It takes several miles for a cargo ship to stop.......
No worries CT - I think they stopped a couple of days ago

Indeed bunks . That particular job - reacquiring the tranche offloaded near 192 - finally done. Did much the same with RDS so a fruitful week. G not dependant on the canal for access to the European market has to be a plus point. Some further falls quite likely, of course so must stay prepared.

I topped back up (to overweight) today when RDS hit my trading target on the 5 month trend here:
https://invst.ly/u9nrt .
I agree that 12.50 represents a credible possibility and I’ll consider adding if/when that happens

I think it all depends on Ever Given, stuck in the Suez canal, bunks.
Brent was heading down and was destined to keep going, due to the EIA numbers yesterday, until that boat embedded itself in the sand. I had a re-acquisition order for a tidy chunk of G nicely lined up until Ever Given messed up my plans.

Cheers Nomad - I hadn't thought of the 'low tide' cracking problem. It's a fine mess!

Agreed Nomad - it seems you are familiar with the location and/or problem ? The protruding bulbous bow seems to have become embedded deeply in the bank and, initially, officials incorrectly reported that the Ever Given had been floated free.
I also can't understand these claims about an 'old channel' being used to get ships moving - the canal was expanded to provide extra two-way capacity to the north of Great Bitter Lake - there is no 'second channel' to by-pass the incident as far as I can make out.

A 15’ view of the last fortnight shows just how close RDS came to breaking out of the recent down-trend in the last half hour: https://invst.ly/u98zc .
Ordinarily this would be promising but is it really? Firstly the bounce up in OP seems to have been caused by the Suez disruption which will only have a temporary effect on oil flows. Secondly, the EIA number for US crude inventories rose by 1.912 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a draw of 272,000 barrels. So decidedly mixed messages affecting Brent today. Meanwhile RDS at 1387 is just under my calculation for the expected price based purely on OP - so I’d ordinarily expect it to regain 1400 but that would be supposing that Brent does not resume its downward track.

Yes indeed Nomad. Also, now I've looked at the location, it doesn't appear to have a parallel channel for that section - so the beeb's report doesn't make sense to me.

Although it’s currently ‘up’ from yesterday’s close, RDS continues in the downward trend today, marked in blue. The ‘highs’ usually give a better sense of direction during a fall and the ‘lows’ when a price is rising: https://invst.ly/u91q2
The lower edge of RDS’ rising trend from November is at about 1340, coincidentally a potential level of moderate support, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens if it does fall further.

Egypt says it has reopened the canal's older channel to divert traffic. (BBC)

Whatever your position on PFC - apparently we are all either rampers or de-rampers - it's very much worth watching OP, because this is what has influenced PFC most since the fall on the 15th - accounting for most of the additional drop below 100p. Here's a 15' view of PFC v Brent and RDS which demonstrates how tight the link is: https://invst.ly/u8pa8 .

To be fair, 1518 was not overdone given that Brent was near $70 at the time. But now it's below $62...
I reckon you can easily allow around 20p change in sp per $ change in OP.

Some fair comments CC.
This cat certainly hasn't bounced and, if you view it with Brent overlaid, then one of the reasons is obvious: (15' view) https://invst.ly/u8mbq .
It also demonstrates that the Hedgefunds have two shots with PFC: the company and OP.

With Brent now under $63 there's pressure on all oil co's and their respective support levels. Here's a 15' view of G: https://invst.ly/u8m77

Waiting for the US market seems like a smart move to me.
And even then, I don't think I'll be rushing to react. With Brent now below $63 the downward pressure is increasing.

Well TBF bunks, I was anticipating the possibility of a deeper re-trace than we've seen to date.
Given the drop in Brent, G has done pretty well so far - better than I'd have thought. If oil recovers then maybe G will not slip further.