Member Info for Boyobach

The sp seems to be poised for an OP move in either direction: rather low for Brent at nearly $65 but somewhat high if Brent resumes a downward path towards $60,
https://invst.ly/uaw5g

It seems that today has not gone as well as they expected. I'm assuming that the tidal flow is as critical as the tidal height at the location: whilst the tide may well raise the craft it will also push it further against the banks because the boat lies across the canal. So the current presumably only begins to drag the boat away from the banks some time after high tide point - because the Great Bitter Lake will be at an average tidal height and will continue to fill for a while even after the level at Suez starts to fall.
It starts to become more apparent how the accident might have occurred if the ship was 'speeding' (as reported), possibly against the current, and pointing slightly into the high wind rather than central to the canal: it probably wouldn't take much misalignment with the canal for an opposing current to reach a tipping point and drag a huge vessel sideways in those circumstances.

It appears from Vessel Finder that CAMPECHANO I L61, a large Spanish operations vessel is at the scene. I'm wondering if this signifies some removal of containers from the front end of Ever Given?

This has probably helped CWR more decisively break free of the two month downtrend this morning.
https://invst.ly/uatw3
Looking good to recapture higher levels - 12.50 would be a nice starter in the next week or so.

Front end still stuck - but the mid-day tide should provide the final push. Brent hit a low of $63 overnight and RDS currently priced a bit higher than expected for that OP.

Fair point bald_eagle. There's a limit in terms of comparative cost via the Cape route, although some cargoes - perishables - will be time sensitive. So there'd be a distinct ceiling on OP impact.
I think they are up against it with the tide - literally. They need to shift the stern southwards but, of course, the rising tide pushes the other way. The Ever Given is presumably acting like a dam - being pushed into the bank by rising tides and perhaps limiting or delaying the effect of falling tides because the height differential is a bit less. Still, if they shifted it by 30m yesterday and they have some extra tugs today - which I believe are finally on the south side of the boat - they may now have the necessary grunt to do the job. Interesting time, with high tide just passing as I type.

It seems the figure might be 30m (which would also happen to be nearer 3 degrees) according to Mail Online:

.... in a major breakthrough, rescue crews reportedly told NBC News foreign correspondent Raf Sanchez they have managed to move the enormous carrier by around 98ft (30m)....

Well, if you assume the bow is stuck and you pivot a 400m boat through 30 degrees then you've shifted the stern by around 225m! I think the canal is about 300m wide so the stern would have passed through the centre of the channel - rather too much I'd have thought - it should look a lot different in the aerial clips if they've achieved that.

.....Yesterday the tugboats 'apparently' had some success, rotating the ship by 30 degrees......
As it looks to be about 30 degrees to the bank that would mean it was free. I guess they meant 3 degrees?

They'll presumably have a go after this morning's high tide turns after 10am BST.

Good interview, with some common-sense facts, Nomad, thanks.
Apparently the US Cavalry are on the way though, so it'll be sorted by Monday (Ha! Ha!)
I'm guessing some oil tankers are by now being diverted so, assuming Ever Given stays ever stuck, the gap in supplies to N Atlantic ports could be up to maybe 14 days maximum? It'll be interesting to see how OP moves before the market opens on Monday.

The tides get progressively higher up until around 1am Wednesday (Suez local time). After that they drop (quite dramatically by 20th April). So the next few days are their best prospect given it's the spring equinox period of high tides.

What tanker is that?

If my decision to exit GGP for the time being seemed like ‘panic’ then that is a misunderstanding as I did give a very full explanation. My intention had been to progressively increase from an entry level but this week’s price action was not encouraging for me as it breached the 20p level fairly convincingly. Hopefully for you guys it will have found support today at 18.5, in which case I will have made the wrong call.
For the record, I did post on the 23rd for the first time, so this is my third post on this board. It was a generally positive note that referenced my chart for GGP at that stage and the Berenberg 30p+ target price. I was beginning to have some doubts, however, and was looking for some useful analysis. Unfortunately, it seems that that thread and others have since been deleted, perhaps because of the tone in some of the messages that I saw relating to another newcomer. I am not negative about GGP itself and will continue to monitor both the sp and the exploration programme with interest, along with those contributors here who provide useful commentary.

Well this week’s results are in and quite a ride it has been, even if you weren’t on a cruise to Suez:
https://invst.ly/ua5p9
G, which often seems to take its cue from RDS, ended up at the bottom of the pack this week. Like its big brother, G hasn’t been strong against Brent since the middle of January and is, by my estimation, 17p below where its ‘all-time’ average performance would have placed it today. Still, at least it is back near 180:
https://invst.ly/ua5te

Yes Rangor - I'd set a limit buy and nearly cancelled it in order to intervene manually. Sub 170 looked on the cards but the OP was even more skittish than usual with the Suez drama causing an early turn-around in OP trend.
I added some CWR today although I've been anticipating it would pay another visit to around 1000 - that one is proving hard to gauge but I've convinced myself it's now on its lowest trend-line. Ha! famous last words!

I don’t necessarily think that GGP is a bad investment but I’ve decided to withdraw my holding for the moment and watch progress from the sidelines. This is primarily because one must manage all investments in order to minimise losses and maximise potential gains. I recently said here that I felt the 20-24 range looked reasonably stable but within a day or so that proved to be incorrect. Furthermore, the downward trend has been very consistent and it is prudent to unwind proportionately, if only in anticipation of buying-back as circumstances improve. https://invst.ly/ua4qo
It’s quite understandable that the price has dropped back following the rather overheated rise during December but the fall below 20 seems set to continue until some tangible news emerges and, to be fair, you can’t expect to get reports on a daily basis.
It also seems unfortunate to me that there is so much uninformed and uninformative noise on this board - hundreds of posts in a day does tend to send a cautionary signal, especially when the quality of so many comments reflects the poor skills and judgement of some (by no means all) contributors . Suffice it to say, there have been comments here, both positive and negative, that do not commend the abilities of some GGP investors to form objective and rational views and arguments. When you are trying to be objective about something the last thing you want to discover is that you are in an echo-chamber with people who cannot tolerate alternative opinions but are, despite their deep beliefs and convictions, utterly clueless. I wish all serious investors here well and also send my sympathies to PaddyGall in his sad loss.

I tend to agree Chilting. I'm getting more optimistic the longer CWR holds on to the nominal 1100 level especially if it manages to recapture the blue trend here: https://invst.ly/ua32z
On that basis I added today, even though I've been looking for a more definitive indication.

I do like it when, on the odd occasion, things eventually go to plan.
https://invst.ly/ua18m

There are obviously a number of factors influencing the sp, Barrie, but sometimes OP dominates the day to day movements more than others . Using an interactive chart it is fairly easy to find a suitable reference point (like sp 1280 for $59) and calculate the prevailing scale factor. It then becomes quickly apparent when RDS is undergoing a more significant market change. Put it into a spreadsheet and you can track it over time. ATB