Member Info for Boyobach

I don't think getting personal ever helps a genuine debate. In the end it's about facts - especially when it concerns balance sheets and profitability.
Regarding the level of shorts, Ctw, I didn't think Blackrock had reduced any further since 28th of Jan? The overall level seems to have risen by 1.91% since then, thanks to others, so the balance of expectation amongst those funds points to further decline in price.

I haven't seen it but it sounds like the guy on the video feels the same way about PFC as me. It's quite tempting again but the level of shorts is still rising, which isn't an encouraging sign. Will watch for a bit longer, I think.

Yes JSO, this line caught my attention: 'KBR last year said it had been notified by the SFO that the agency was no longer focused on allegations of corruption related to Unaoil.'
As far as I'm aware, the only issues that PFC may be implicated in are because of its dealings with or through UnaOil - so if that line of enquiry has been winding down then it implies that there is not much left to reveal about PFC.

It all seems to be down to OP at the moment, Barrie - so my advice would be to be guided by your instincts on that.

It's all about the steps forward outnumbering the steps backward Char. At the moment we are experiencing some backward steps, only if they push RDS below the lower trend line here will they be gaining the upper hand :
https://invst.ly/u89r2
Until then we are still moving forward, if not quite at the pace we'd like. Remember that the seasonally good months for OP come in Q2-Q3.

If you are nearly 'all-in' and have already 'jumped back in too early' then you could possibly afford to wait and see, Barrie?
The short term omens for oil are not especially good and we've yet to see how strong RDS support at 1400 really is. I'd like to top-up but not at any price, especially when there's a fair chance of revisiting 1360 if not lower - how much could that improve your average?
This article, although it primarily talks about the current WTI chart, also gives a reasoned list of the headwinds currently faced by OP. https://uk.investing.com/analysis/chart-of-the-day-oil-could-be-about-to-top-out-200464668
Whatever you decide - ATB.

I'm sticking to Shell....
Me too.
Good luck Bimmer.

Friday’s moves in sp clearly demonstrated RDS sensitivity to OP, which is a complex and unpredictable relationship at the best of times. For whilst there is obviously going to be an element of tracking there are also going to be other factors driving the underlying sp.
Friday’s sp appears to be roughly in line with the relationship that existed back in 2014 prior to the OP crash from $100+ prices: https://invst.ly/u7vof (RDS v Brent in green). Presumably because demand increased as OP fell, the sp did not suffer proportionately when OP fell by around $40 to an average of roughly $60 during the intervening five years up to COVID19 and last year’s OP ‘war’ that took Brent down to $20. However, those events of a year ago seem to have restored the old relationship, bearing in mind that there is also a loose link between underlying gas and oil prices, with gas prices also down by roughly 40% over the years in question: https://invst.ly/u7vxb (Brent v Nat Gas).
With this in mind, it seems fair to conclude the obvious: that OP currently has a direct but limited effect on sp which can only be improved if it is accompanied by a genuine increase in demand rather than simply being the result of supply cuts, as is currently the case.

Smart Meters have been a disaster because of Government/OFGEM policies rather than energy companies. There is a full breakdown of the reasons here:
https://theswitch.co.uk/blog/technology/smart-meter-disadvantages
Shell have undoubtedly inherited this unavoidable issue as a result of entering the UK supply market,

It's an auction Wigwammer - potentially high volumes and numerous sellers and buyers.

Ordinarily a gap isn't predictable - and my comments related to what happens next.
However, given what happened to Brent between yesterday's close and today's open, a gap was more likely today than on most mornings.

Jim:
If they are a loan company then don't forget that their repayments are dependent on Brent too....

Brent fell by about 8% this week, much of it in the last 24 hours and hitting -10% at one point yesterday evening before recovering sharply this afternoon. So today was ‘interesting’ for most oil-related stocks. Of the usual selection, G managed to stay at the top - which seems to indicate a positive market response to this week’s results and statement.
https://invst.ly/u7gji

RDS opened at 1401 today apparently and yesterday’s intraday low is given as 1432 - so there was a 30ish p gap down, which got filled during the morning, the implication being that the price might well continue down after the fill. I'm potentially looking to buy rather than sell but I'm not interested above or near 1400,

G is doing stunningly (absurdly?) well against OP today. It seems that if G can't rise to 3xBrent then Brent will drop to do the job :-) - totally bonkers but I can't complain. https://invst.ly/u7f3v

When your average sp is well below the market price, adding will obviously raise your average, so it’s worth pondering what the trade will actually do to improve your position or prospects. It’s easy to just add when it reaches a given target but the cushion of a healthy existing margin can cause investors to be a bit cavalier. The sp is currently heading down and it will recover but it’s not necessarily a good idea to buy whilst it is still falling.
https://invst.ly/u7egd
At 1400, RDS is not at an attractive 'add price' for me and, whilst it may also prove to be a reasonable support level it did not stand the test last June. There was a gap to fill today and now that that is done….
https://invst.ly/u7emi

I should add that the current price of Brent was compatible with an RDS sp of around 1350 just a month ago:
https://invst.ly/u7cvh

Agreed Fusion.
In any case, RDS is inextricably linked to OP and the latter started to shift sharply downwards a week ago and has subsequently fallen out of the three and a half month trend we have enjoyed since October. There was no way that RDS' sp was going to strengthen in that circumstance: Brent daily: https://invst.ly/u7coa .

It’s interesting when the daily tick chart : https://invst.ly/u7bvv
gives a different impression to one that reflects intraday in more detail: https://invst.ly/u7bw7 .
Has this week - which included the placing - seen a significant change in the recent downward trend? It’s certainly not as steep as it has been but is it over? Might take another week to be sure.

Just to add - the Primary Bid process was of no interest to me: quite small discount and a lot of hassle for a small number of shares (see posts on the CWR board ) and I don't know if I'd have been able to integrate them within my ISA holding with ii .
In any case my 'add' target is - like you - below £10, which is still on the cards. https://invst.ly/u7aq-