Member Info for Boyobach

Ha! It threw me a curveball - dropping a day later ...
https://invst.ly/u0ntj

The deferral of sentencing could be due to any number of procedural matters which we simply don’t know about, Paddy, as the reasons have not been reported. So it seems a bit wild to assume that it is due to admissibility of evidence - simply because of the recent unconnected KBR ruling in the Supreme Court.
All we know is that Lufkin has pleaded guilty to a total of 14 charges in a very complex case. The court may well need more information in order to carry out sentencing, hence one possible reason for a directions hearing in order to set out all the information needed. There could be other reasons, of course, but we simply don’t know do we? The courts move at their own pace and following procedures largely unfamiliar to the rest of us, so it seems a waste of time speculating.

Paddy: 'I really never understood the dip...'
I think January's fall in sp was the market reaction to Mr Lufkin's new admissions of guilt in relation to matters not previously reported plus the fact that the SFO confirmed that their investigations into PFC are ongoing and that it is a'live case'. The SFO statement therefore eliminated any prospect of the case being closed in the near future, whilst the twelve month gap between revelations means that new evidence is still coming to light or being assembled at a painfully slow pace. The market was bound to react to the ever deepening uncertainty and the possibility that worse news is to come.

Indeed Chilting. A bit early to say from a daily chart but a 15' view does suggest that CWR is levelling out: https://invst.ly/u07ho
with 1200 the nominal bottom.

Neversell:
Those trend lines go back to PFC’s historic lowest close on 22nd Jan.
https://invst.ly/u06db
There’s only one channel which is bounded by a pair of trend lines - which trace the highs and lows of the open and closing prices, usually (but not always) ignoring the intra day extremes (the tails). The lines are usually parallel but there are times when they form a wedge because the price range is being squeezed. Ordinarily, the lower trend line is used as an indicator for rising prices and the upper line is used as an indicator for falling. This is because the relevant line will automatically get broken when there’s a significant change of direction.

Today PFC only just managed to close within the rising channel but it is clearly falling well short of the upper line and hasn’t been near it for a fortnight- so it’s a fair bet that it has run out of steam for now and may well fall back - with 125 the next most obvious support line. At that point the trend will be dead and it’ll be time to look for a new one.

Here’s a long view (3 years) of G, against Brent x2.9 on the sp scale.
G is on the brink of consolidating above 165 - the baseline for its price during 2019. Hopefully this will be more permanent than the spikes of last June and a few weeks ago which took it briefly to around 180.
https://invst.ly/t--lw
If it does consolidate above this level then it brings 200+ into the prospective trading range.

Closing below 128 would not be brilliant, of course, as it would take PFC out of its five-week rising trend and potentially mark a levelling off period:
https://invst.ly/t-xyu
With OP easing off, there's no upward pressure for oil-related stocks today.

Looks possible
https://invst.ly/t-xij

I think you may have missed the main article about Mr Warner, Neversell.
https://www.theage.com.au/interactive/2016/the-bribe-factory/day-2/the-dirty-execs.html
The roots of the SFO investigation presumably go back to these allegations, the extent to which his colleagues within PFC may have been involved (I think any that have been named were in sales related positions) and whether the company was aware or encouraged them and had appropriate control procedures in place. There is also the strand discussed here:
https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/33451-family-of-late-petrofac-co-founder-denies-bribery-accusations

There are quite enough direct connections to worry about , Neversell, without adding more. This seven year old article mentions one of them, in case you were unaware:
https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/article-11796-unaoil-group-appoints-peter-warner-to-its-board

Well CWR held the 1260 line at the close. Quite a tussle today, with the outcome postponed until tomorrow .....
https://invst.ly/t-kte
Although there's usually a definite 'up or down' breakout under these circumstances, there is always the third possibility - that the sp will level out in this range, ie 1200-1300. Presumably that would not be the worst outcome for most LT holders and a positive signal after the drop back of the last couple of weeks.

I notice that one comment on the GKP board says:
'I would imagine that any payments will be after the budget has been approved and signed on Thursday'
That should be utterly wrong, of course. The budget should have no bearing upon contractual payments and, if it were true, it would be more worrying than a straightforward delay of a couple of days.

No update on payments during February for January's production., which is disappointing to say the least. I've not seen anything over at GKP either.
It's a key one too, with OP above $55 for much of the month, Sarta producing and RSA payments resuming, I'm expecting a very substantial increase from typical 2020 levels .

The immediate problem is obviously advancing beyond 135 - let's clear that before getting too excited
https://invst.ly/t-dxs
The next significant milestone for me will be 175 but there'll be a couple more challenges on the way, probably around 145 and 160.

Yes indeed Chilting. For me, it’s an interesting play at the moment, with a narrowing price pattern (red) that could break up or down on Monday. I’m obviously thinking it might be down, similar to what happened on the 18th: https://invst.ly/tzsnn , in which case I doubt that 1200 would hold and it might retest 1100. None of which should be too much concern for LTHs, as sentiment is strong, but it might offer myself and others an attractive buy-back point after taking some profits recently.

I guess you mean next week? It was a down day, Neversell, but I wouldn't call it a bloodbath. Admittedly, the FTSE100 did lose over 2.5% - making a 2% loss over the week, but PFC, along with oil majors, was up about 4% over the week. It is a volatile time but, as I said yesterday, PFC is on a steady climb. From a trading perspective there's an interesting short-term squeeze on PFC's price - the red wedge here:
https://invst.ly/tzrfe , which is narrowing the price towards 132. A break up or down from that pattern is inevitable. My guess would be up but, from a long-term perspective , as long as it doesn't fall below 125 I won't be especially bothered.

Not an especially interesting week for G, which fared marginally worse than Brent over the period, at just 2.6% up. Except for RDS, where I took some profits on Wednesday, the majors mostly managed over 4% gains overall, with BP closing 7% up over the week: https://invst.ly/tzhk3 after hitting +13% on Thursday.
G sp (p) has generally continued to move upward with Brent since November, though rarely managing more than 2.8 x OP ($).
https://invst.ly/tzhud
O/T: is anyone here still in CWR? I made a small profit trading it this week but it does seem to be correcting after possibly being overbought and hitting £16 at one point. I have a few left at net cost just over £13 but won't be adding until it shows signs of breaking out from the current downward pressure of the red trend here: https://invst.ly/tzijo . I made a bundle on it back in November so certainly not complaining. It's been a good trading share.

CWR continues to be dominated by the downward trend (red) of the last couple of weeks,
https://invst.ly/tzcul
significantly dropping through green and potentially heading below the more established orange .
Chasing the price down, whilst it remains below the red line, does not appeal to me.

It’s really been an unremarkable but reassuringly positive week, Neversell.
Supported by Brent reaching the $65 ‘sweet spot’, PFC has been on a well defined upward trend throughout February despite some volatility. The main question is whether this will continue into March, which would place PFC firmly back into the nominal 130-150 range.
https://invst.ly/tzc99
The steepness of the current up-trend makes it difficult to make significant gains on trading - sure, you can sell on the highs but the re-entry point is following not far behind, so that reduces the gains to scalping a few pence. There is also the ever-present risk of missing out on a sudden jump to 145+ which is plainly on the cards. I guess it’s ok for those that sit at a screen, but small beer for long-term holders.

£3 in coming months? That presupposes the O&G market returns to pre-covid levels and the Lufkin case is resolved to the market’s satisfaction, I presume? In those circumstances 350 would be a realistic target but let’s not get ahead of what may be realistically achieved in ‘coming months’.

To reach £3 currently, PFC would need to outperform oil majors like RDS, which has yet to recapture its ‘covid-19’ high of £15. PFC’s equivalent top price for the period is 230. PFC may have recovered from recent lows but it still remains around 45p down as a result of the SFO news in January. The delay in completion of the case involving Mr Lufkin clarifies nothing and the uncertainty that the market has meanwhile priced-in will therefore remain unless new contracts roll in. So 190 looks about top in H1 - assuming ‘big-oil’ gets back to 2020 highs, which seems reasonable if OP strengthens in Q2 as it ordinarily tends to do. If the SFO matter subsequently clears then, yes, 250-300 and beyond would be on the radar but until then a list of 'reasons to be cheerful' won't cut it in my view.