Member Info for Boyobach

CWR was already quite 'hot' when it broke out on 3rd December. It's been a nice ride but maybe it will now settle back around £10 for a while: https://invst.ly/u2j3g

That really isn’t correct AD66 is it? Where you say that ‘Blackrock and ilk seem to have some access to info on the company as it plunged the day before the SFO announcement in 2017’

If you check the sp on Investing.com and also Google the SFO’s announcements then it is utterly clear that PFC’s sp plunged on the same day as the SFO announced its investigation, ie 12/5/17,The price was pretty level the day before - opening at 817 and closing just 2.5p down. The price subsequently tanked to a low of 345 over the following weeks.

Any sudden increase in shorting immediately prior to such an unexpected event would undoubtedly have drawn intense scrutiny. Some investors may despise shorters but they are a fact of life and they are ordinarily only successful with over-valued stocks. Their continued interest in PFC should be regarded as a warning rather than a challenge. With OP rising there may be a stimulus for new contracts that will lift PFC but lead times can be long.

Glad to hear about the selling faux pas Tartine - hope it works in your favour.
Just imagine if G confirms Feb's payment .... Ha! Always a snag eh?

Thanks Withoutt - the RNS hasn't appeared here on LSE yet.
Excellent news.

Correction: PFC has hardly ever had less than 4% reported as ‘shorted’ in the last six years (NOT 6%).

Chri55: They [shorters] always pick on a stock which has bad news coming. Hence why they have only just started here…..

Shorters have no prior knowledge of specific bad news - if they did then there would be a closer correlation between shorting positions and price movements and you would be seeing serious investigations into such allegations.
PFC has been shorted by professional funds for at least eight years and has hardly ever had less than 6% reported as ‘shorted’ in the last six years: https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0H2K534/ . At the end of January the reported shorts had dropped to 7.1% but have since risen back to 7.96 according to this source.
If you study the interactive chart of shorts against the sp and compare the dates of peaks or significant moves then you’ll see some correlations (eg May 2017) but the relationship is not as simplistic as you might suppose. So if you are expecting to see shorts closing out in direct proportion as the sp recovers then, in my opinion, you are wasting your time. However, the chart does seem to indicate that the Hedge Funds do not share the same expectations for PFC as most of those who post on this board.

The good thing about PFC’s performance today was the fact that it punched up through the wedge pattern that has put a ceiling on the price for the last three weeks: https://invst.ly/u1uql But it was plain that the rise had much to do with the ‘artificial’ lift in OP and little to do with the merits of PFC. By ‘artificial’, I mean OP rose on the basis of extended production cuts rather than an increase in demand. Does PFC benefit from reduced levels of production? No! So it was profit taking time for me, offloading about 2/3rds.

Off the back of OPEC+ cuts and Brent hitting $69, it was obviously going to be a good day for the sector as a whole - G came out top of the usual bunch for the week: https://invst.ly/u1tvm
G’s UT at 185 today seemed to hint that it might now consolidate near 180. For although G has more recently turned back during spikes to 180, prior to 2020 it provided support more often than resistance. Next week should confirm.

As I muttered earlier, with Brent approaching $70, G is underpriced at 185. It has easily managed over 210 under these circumstances in the past and my current target is 195+ minimum. So, unconvinced of a 20p pull-back and with the March lead-up to results, I resisted the temptation to sell even a small tranche (but compensated by profitably dumping chunks of PFC and Lloy). G is not alone in underperforming against OP: RDS is similarly afflicted, as this chart of G v Brent and RDS since they all started to rally in the autumn, shows: https://invst.ly/u1uar . Enjoy the weekend GLA

Lemming: 'The average cost of production seems to be north of $70 in OPEC+....'
That's obviously not the cost of production but the level of OP needed for the respective banana republics to break-even economically. That's a very important difference.

Today might be a good trading opportunity with G, but - as always if you are essentially ‘long’ - the profit only gets measured when you re-acquire. So the eye has to be on the prospective fall-back price. Today’s rise is driven by OP but still only represents a ratio to Brent of under 2.7x. That’s not been an adequate sell indicator for me in the past. Added to which, G has been consolidating above 165 and today’s breakout looks like it could stick. It’s all looking good for a continued progression to 195 - if they get paid!
https://invst.ly/u1ps7
But don’t blame me if you hold and the price drops back below 160 because the KRG screw up again!

RDS today is in line with OP when re-based to end-October - the low point for most oil companies:
https://invst.ly/u1opy
However, RDS remains about £2 down on its performance relative to OP in mid January.

PFC just following OP: https://invst.ly/u1omy
Nice, though.

Yes - a good walk. At least it kept me away from the 'sell' button. Ha!

Yes indeed bunks.
G is having a 'good' day which perversely inspires a rant from me - simply because it should be a good deal better.
And we all know why - so I'll shut-up about it. ATB.

Brent hits $68, G at 180 (just) but no payment news.
Time to dump it?
Going for a walk.

I'm not an advocate of blindly averaging down geokarbou, but accumulating in planned stages - with an eye to the value and risk - is a different matter as it is never possible to judge the bottom. My return to CWR has been on the basis that my initial re-entry point was likely to be too high, so I'm accumulating in relatively small tranches.
History does not repeat itself indefinitely, of course, but we do seem to be in the seventh phase of CWR's price 'correction' and it will be interesting to see if it continues to follow the pattern of the last few weeks: https://invst.ly/u15f8

Hi Leem - are you still in PFC? saw a couple of your posts over there.
The human race needs to clean its act up but needs energy sources and oil hasn't been replaced yet - nor will be for a few years. Meanwhile, lack of investment in exploration and development mean there could be a supply crunch as the machinery of economic recovery kicks in.... could be G's last window of opportunity (having failed with all the previous ones), Ha!
It has been doing nicely since the end of October but a hiccup with KRG payments could easily send it back down - and they usually manage to thrust a spanner in the works at a critical juncture (like now). https://invst.ly/u1591

Agreed Chilting.
I'm adding back now - 10.70 was a target for me but I could imagine it going as low as 9.50, which may seem pessimistic but an excellent opportunity if it comes around. As others here point out, it's a sector-wide hit, with end of year profit taking etc. etc. CWR remains a good long-term prospect in my view. GLA

It always struck me that hydrogen was a better bet for large vehicles.

Meanwhile the sp .... a tenner anybody?
https://invst.ly/u106j

Like we discussed yesterday, Neversell, PFC is certainly levelling off with a narrowing of the price centred on 130. This is a 15 minute chart, btw, so looks rather different, picks up finer detail and the trend channel is now flatter to reflect the levelling off, which will probably continue until the trend is horizontal. The 'price squeeze' could eventually lead to a break up or down:
https://invst.ly/u0rh-