Member Info for Boyobach

Hi Rangor. There was a comprehensive Rationale for the Fundraise and Use of Proceeds towards the end of the Fundraise announcement RNS , better to read it in full than rely on a a swift precis by me. I received no notification about the fundraise or a direct opportunity to subscribe.

Yes indeed Rangor - I've been gently buying back in CWR, although I realise it could still be a bit high. A recent repetitive pattern makes today's rise less convincing than it might ordinarily be : https://invst.ly/u6-qh . Still, up or down would suit me at the moment - rather like G in that respect.
I recently had a buy order set at around 955 which didn't trigger on the last drop.

Shame about the drop in OP today - taking the shine off a bit and may push G back for a while. My chance to top back up may come around after all.

I agree with you both.
I think you are correct re Tawke (inc Pesh), which might hold or improve slightly. They say : 'Up to eight new development wells are set to be drilled and multiple workovers on existing producing wells are due to be undertaken in the drive to maintain production above 100,000 bopd.'.
With Sarta looking good, Qara Dagh has the potential to surprise me- its history with the previous licence holder didn't make it sound too promising when it was first mentioned and it does seem to have geological challenges/peculiarities. The market reaction is certainly going better than I expected - maybe it'll build solidly on this without revisiting the 170s after all.

No comments here.... or is the LSE Chat playing up again?
The statement seems fine to me - no fireworks or shockers as far as I can make out.
The sp dipped initially but is holding quite steady, although I still anticipate that it may cycle lower. The dividend decision, which will give many of us an excellent yield, seems sensible and in-line with forward guidance. It seems Bina Bawi is about as near to exploitation as it was ten years ago - no surprises there.

That's good Neversell - GL with BP.

It is good news for RDS although it appears to have been a very sorry story of corruption in Nigeria.

Yes, Leem, I was lucky indeed.
I’ve lost confidence in PFC, so I’m not able to be positive about it. The destruction of investor value over nine years is frankly horrendous. G has not been that different but with the crucial difference that, whilst G appears to have turned a vital corner or two, PFC hasn’t - and there's no sign that it is going to for a while yet.
(Here’s PFC v G to kinda justify that comment: https://invst.ly/u6m8e )
There’s a limit to the risk I’ll have in my portfolio and PFC is now a step too far for me, especially with the shorts still stacking up.

O/T Neversell / Pokerchips:
Did you guys exit PFC before this week's drop? I took my profits and got out last week- hope you avoided it too.
I'm not posting over there unless I've got something positive to say (which I haven't right now) as it would be pretty insensitive.

The pull back from RDS' recent highs is not specific to RDS and in line with other oil major sp movements like BP and Chevron, for example.
£15 was always going to present a significant level of resistance.

Is it just a wobble or a full-on retrace with oil related sp’s today?
Here’s a check on the usual group after just two days into the week:
https://invst.ly/u62hx
G is doing OK in relative terms. Obviously there’s results on Thursday but, even though I’m confident about G as we head into Q2, I’m braced for the possibility of a retrace to maybe 170? OK, I’m being naive - 165 is on the cards but that does seem absurd given G’s recent progress and resumption of payments plus the trend should limit any pull-back shouldn’t it?
Here’s a 15’ view: https://invst.ly/u62np
and a daily tick: https://invst.ly/u62pb
.. you decide what’s possible. Hands up to the fact I’m in top-up mode here and at RDS, so a brief drop at either would be a gift.

O/T PFC
Big commiserations Nightpusher. The timing of my exit was pure luck as I obviously had no idea that the ADNOC thing would go TU. I was prompted by thoughts that I put in a long tedious post, the writing of which convinced me to take my own advice. I couldn't possibly go back on the PFC board to make any further comment now, given what most over there have experienced. To me the hated Hedgefunds were the canary in the mine - they weren't budging and they are right more often than they are wrong, plus the sp was stagnating. I'm not rushing to go back in either - I may be very wrong but I fear there's someone specific that the SFO are still after. I hope you manage to recoup any losses. If it's any consolation PFC still owes me after it fell to £2.20 a year ago and I bailed out. ATB

Regarding the gap at 1305 - It started at about 12p but it was reduced to only 5p by three downward spikes on the 19th Feb, when I think it was effectively taken out. I seem to remember trying for a potential buy. And, if RDS dropped to that level, I think the gap would be the last thing on our minds because 1250 would be on the radar. Not that I want to see RDS dropping - but a brief buying opportunity at an attractive price is always nice.

RDS is certainly on the verge of dropping off its upward trend for a while, Bimmer: https://invst.ly/u5zxz
I'm not interested in adding at above 1400 as I'm happy with my core holding and its average value per share (below £11.50).
I also wouldn't regard 1400 as a major correction and, with OP staying firm and economic recovery prospects reasonably good, I don't think we'll see levels much below that although the chart does suggest suggest lower targets as possibilities.

It was disappointing that Friday's pull back continued today. If history does happen to repeat itself with the now familiar pattern, I guess we could have an indication by next Friday’s close if the drop of the last five weeks is continuing:
https://invst.ly/u5nsf
Obviously it is not identical every time but the similarities (in a 15' view) are quite interesting, nevertheless. Let’s hope for a levelling out or, better still, a period of steady gain.

Yes Ed, and as Hasiba says: 'CWR valuation is purely based on future forecast in its potentials .....'
The current shift in price range seems like an opportunity to balance the portfolio for the next phase, with 950 possibly marking the baseline.

Fair comments AS01 - and it seems Henderson only took some profits rather than moving out completely. I’m really judging it from a chart perspective in order to rationalise the net value of my holding and establishing my potential ‘sell’ and ‘buy-back’ levels, which are broadly suggested here though not specifically marked:
https://invst.ly/u5394 . The recent red down-trend has been adjusted in this version to indicate a potential ongoing challenge to any immediate recovery.

Since CWR broke above the blue trend line ( https://invst.ly/u5269 ) in early December, it has been on something of a rampage, with little rational explanation and somewhat typical of a momentum trap.
Last month it fell into a steep fall-back (red) from which it apparently escaped on Wednesday with subsequent profit-taking on Friday. The decline may have been triggered by Henderson Opportunities reducing their holding due to the high valuation it reached, prompting Henderson to take some profits. He is quoted as saying: ‘Some profits were taken in the holding, as while the commercial potential of the technology is large, commercialisation remains at a relatively early stage and the valuation on any traditional basis is high,’

Until the dust clears, perhaps 1000 - 1250 could define the trading range for a while, although, with CWR, anything seems possible. But is it still overvalued?

Anything above today’s price would be a bonus for G, Hydrogen & Ammu, but there seem to be mixed messages on US Shale.
So I'm not counting on any spike but I'll happily take advantage if one occurs. Has shale production dropped back as much as some suggest or predicted? There are plenty of DUCs (drilled but uncompleted) wells, so the number of rigs doesn’t tell the whole story. According to this article it’s far from over for shale and production remains ‘stubbornly high’:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-US-Shale-Production-Remains-Stubbornly-High.html

BP and RDS have tracked each other quite closely this week, Neversell, drifting apart midweek by up to 2% but otherwise remaining quite tight: 15 minute view BP (yellow) v RDS:
https://invst.ly/u4syd
They sometimes diverge for several days but went adrift between Feb and September last year, when RDS lost ground, but that seemed to get corrected in October. BP (yellow) v RDS since 2019: https://invst.ly/u4sx9