Member Info for Boyobach

Getting back to the actual topic here: today certainly isn’t turning out to be a bad day.
The pull back in Brent isn’t perhaps as dramatic or unforeseen as some media seems to suggest.
The roll-over of the Brent September contact to October always looked set to knock $1 off - hence the step downwards since Friday - but the underlying trend in OP is encouraging:
https://invst.ly/vm67z As one bullish pundit put it recently: Brent tends to take a fast elevator down and then climbs the stairs back up, with the elevator progressively stopping at higher floors currently.

Well H, TBF, I did present some evidence and say that the interpretation depended on one's pov. You've been more bullish than me recently and I hope you're eventually proved correct. Personally, I'll be hovering near the exit until this gets back over 160 and there's evidence of confidence returning. All the usual suspects are up today except G, trailing the pack yet again-https://invst.ly/vm5-5

Perhaps Char provokes a strong reaction here because he expresses thoughts that many of us have had with investments when they let us down and don’t perform as we had expected. It’s a form of self-criticism and ‘out loud’ thinking - which I guess many of us do. It’s sometimes irrational and quickly dismissed when we recognise it as such. In terms of what he says about RDS - which is invariably based on the day’s movements and immediate prospects - he usually has a 50:50 chance of being correct about the short term. Char is not alone when it comes to disappointment: just look at some of the ads for CFD’s etc etc and notice the percentage of retail investors that lose money. Many of us will have experienced bitterly deep capital losses - including some here at RDS over the last eighteen months. I don’t think Char is a troll - just disillusioned and venting. Can’t say I blame him - I just don’t read everything he says. And I’ve stopped trying to rationalise with him - it isn’t what he’s here for.

Whilst there is some debate about whether share-buybacks do much to enhance an SP, I have noticed in the past that they can add tangible support by hoovering up the cheaper shares of the day. This tends to raise the floor and we may be seeing that currently, although the gap down to 1387 remains a concern: https://invst.ly/vm2vs
As far as the gap is concerned, there may be valid technical arguments that classify it as a ‘continuation gap’ and set it against the historic gap down from 1600 last year. I’d personally feel more comfortable to see it mopped-up by a brief negative spike followed by a resumption of progress. Either way, there’s reason to hope that the floor might be shifting up to 1460 with the Q3 range extending back up to 1520.

Yes indeed bunks. I’ll admit to becoming increasingly gloomy despite the fact that G’s last monthly receipt fell in line with what should be expected.
Since the end of March, marked in this chart of G v Brent : https://invst.ly/vm28n , the profound divergence between G and Brent has become a great concern to me. It does point to a market re-evaluation of G . Whilst it’s true that most oil companies have levelled off since March - GKP is an example: https://invst.ly/vm2ep - G has seen a marked decline in value. Depending on your view, this either represents a temporary undervaluation or signals a rather more prolonged condition. The risk/reward balance here has become far less appetising for me.

Cheers bunks. I try to do a seven day one (from Friday close to the next Friday close) so that the weekend OP and late Friday US moves (CVX and XOM) are included - although it’s not always perfect because of the way Investing.com handle the monthly Brent roll-over. Let's hope we have a better week coming up, however we measure it!

The unexpected directive .....
Those IOC's who didn't anticipate the need for the elimination of flaring and weren't already engaged with the MNR in discussions about it are incompetent. G had better not fall into that very distinct category. It obviously represents a change in contractual terms - ie an additional requirement, albeit a reasonable one.

Here’s that chart I promised that shows the discrepancy in Investing.com ‘s ‘live’ data for Brent last week. This is today’s ‘historic’ picture: https://invst.ly/vllu0 and this was yesterday’s ‘live’ view: https://invst.ly/vlfya - checkout the last candle and it’s opening price relative to the previous day, which effectively understates Brent by $1

I’m scratching my head, bunks.
According to Investing.com, G finished the previous Friday on 139.6 and yesterday on 143.8, which it ‘correctly’ gave as 3.01% up over the week. Where did you get the +6.8p / 4.96% week’s rise from? https://invst.ly/vlkje . Was there a very late 137p UT on Friday 23rd that Investing.com missed?

For me it was a collapse: G failed to hold onto the key recovery level of 150 or the trend at 148. I know others also fell on the day but not by as much as G, which is already on its knees in comparison to peers - https://invst.ly/vllcg . It should be 180 minimum based on sector performance and nearer to 230 based on past average performance against Brent. After two months I think it should be showing at least some signs of recovery but it isn’t.

There are so many conflicting message about OP, Barrie, and not helped in the last week of the contract - today is the end of the September Brent contract which reached over $76 - with some sources -like Investing. com switching to October ( a full $1 lower) for 'live prices' five days prematurely. Hence this chart for Brent is correct except for the very last candle: https://invst.ly/vlfya . I'll post the same chart again over the weekend so you can spot the difference. Meanwhile, many pundits are talking about $100 OP - clearly there's a lot of scepticism about that. Yet inventories are reducing and the price is not retreating.... Meanwhile RDS is holding on to yesterday's gains by its fingertips. It doesn't look as if it will make it to the next level just yet: https://invst.ly/vlg01

The last day of trading in the Brent September contract, which rose to $76.3 during the day. It rolls over to October’s contract by Monday- about a $1 lower at the moment. G, meanwhile, collapsing back this afternoon even harder than the market - not particularly logical - it always leaves the suspicion that there’s some factor we are unaware of. However, it was quite bizarre that G outshone RDS yesterday and today saw the correction. DNO and GKP are bottom of the pile this week.
Here are the usual riders: https://invst.ly/vlfh0

And here are the daily ticks for G over the last couple of months (the period after it took a 30p kicking in May): https://invst.ly/vlfht Looking at today’s close, I reckon it’s still around 30p down compared to, say, Chevron and about 20p down relative to GKP - a very subjective comment but, essentially, I don't think it has made any real recovery since the RNS announcing the KRG ‘adjustment’ to the receivables recovery rate, which coincided neatly with ex-div day to amplify the natural drop in sp.

RNS’ are necessarily factual and concise; there is a legal obligation to not be misleading. To that extent, the less said the better because the scope for misinterpretation is minimised, although - as we’ve seen here in the past - the lack of detail can lead to lots of debate and conjecture about what is actually happening. I guess that G’s communications team have two hats: there’s PR and there’s IR, the former allows rather more scope in terms of ‘selling’ good news, whilst the latter has the task of sticking to the facts and not preempting what PR will be saying in a week or so’s time. I think G’s IR has improved in terms of clarity and is much better than it was. However, the ‘PR’ side is not necessarily as proactive as it could be - although that does carry the danger of raising expectations unduly - as happened back in 2018 when Bina Bawi was projected as a transformational asset. As an investor I prefer restrained communications, I don’t like ‘hype’ - unless I’m looking to sell, of course! However, regular updates on projects in the pipeline, new opportunities and the performance of existing assets are essential. The payments updates can raise questions concerning monthly variability - April's disappointing figure (reported in June) being a good , example, especially as it came after the KRG reneged on the receivables recovery agreement. That's when an RNS can fail to be as reassuring as perhaps it could be.

Yield isn’t everything and ‘the way we were’ depends on who you are - it isn’t the same for everyone. Hence the preoccupation for some for the sp to get back over £20. But - if they took the hit and sold - where would they invest the proceeds in order to have better dividend and growth prospects? It may be better to sit back and not stress about the price every day, like Char does (not).

On yield, we should remember that the share price dropped sharply in August 2019 pushing the yield up. Indeed, RDS had reached sp’s of up to £28 in 2018 and I guess the yield prior to 2020 must typically have been around 5%? That would point to an sp of £13.80 today if yield was the only consideration. Of course, there are circumstances where even small but reliable yields can be attractive with the level reflecting low risk and the prospects for growth.

Chevron has not cut its dividend and on a comparative basis (RDS and CVX sp’s tracked quite closely prior to the RDS cut) RDS’ sp might have been around £20 today had it also held the dividend and matched CVX: https://invst.ly/vlapf
However, the yield under those circumstances would have been approaching 7% today, a high rate reflecting perceived risk associated with things like debt level - which RDS has now reduced and the possibility of an eventual dividend cut, which RDS has already done.

Those who traded RDS as it fell to below £9 and are consequently holding at genuinely bargain prices have little to complain about - the dividend is now good and reliable at any average price below £14 and the prospects for gains are high as OP tightens, demand recovers and RDS’ CFFO continues apace.

The best thing, in my view, is to assume that 24c is the new 47c and to take it from there.

I have to agree Shal - in my experience share buybacks never seem to have much impact on an sp. As you say, a small component in terms of mar-cap.

The thing is, Bimmer, that RDS looks set to regain the blue trend it slipped off a couple of weeks ago:
https://invst.ly/vkv79
If it captures the 14.60 level, then it usually trades in a cyclic range of maybe 80p - so the previous high of 15.20 comes into range.
Of course, it might get turned back at 14.60 but looking at today's results, the divi improvement and strength of O&G prices - a sustained pull back to 13.80 doesn't seem that likely to me. The US market may give an indication this afternoon.

Well Optimus, looking at the daily chart, there was a 10p gap down on the 15th July from 1408 and today’s gap up from 1386 is currently worth about 35p - so 25p is presently ‘unaccounted’, which, if it remains at the close, could well form a continuation eventually balancing half of last year’s Mar 6th gap down of 50p from 1595. With O&G prices strong and this week’s EIA inventory draw, I think we could see RDS consolidate into the next level up, which I reckon would be 1460-1600 (neatly taking care of the gaps).

Prior to last year's 66% cut I believe the divi was 48c, so today’s adjustment effectively reduces the cut to 50%.

Interesting to see how and when these get filled or matched: https://invst.ly/vkr3k

Well today's RNS was about DNO - so just an echo of their news. Hopefully G's H1 next week will address all the other issues that interest us.
Maybe it will be as positive for G as RDS' was for them today...

Good to see the payment RNS today for May production. At just over $30m it is more respectable than the figure achieved for April and much more in line with my expectations.

Brent September contract (last trade date this Friday) is back up to $75 this morning.
It’s that time of month when Investing.com switches the front-month ‘live’ price over on the last Sunday prior - so a full trading week prematurely this time around - and today’s price given there, for October’s contract, is currently about $1 lower.
Bearing that in mind, the chart for Brent continues to be encouraging, with the average for Brent this month about $74 - best month in 2021 so far, which will hopefully be reflected in G’s September payment: https://invst.ly/vk9-o
Contract Revenue for the year (including receivables recovery and RSA payments) for the year seems to be on track to make at least $300m.