Member Info for Boyobach

The long awaited breakout might be happening today. Consolidating and building upon 1050 could begin a new phase: https://invst.ly/vshnt

That’s interesting Getafgrip. It contributed to a robust day that strengthened 1400 as an apparent support level. In context I think the buybacks are running at about 1.2m per day, with yesterday’s total traded volume of 7.527m according to Investing.com :
https://invst.ly/vseu4
The daily average volume is apparently about 6m.
My feeling is that the sp should progressively strengthen as we approach the Q3 point. It’s still over two months off, of course, but O&G prices look set to remain at healthy levels. I’m increasingly optimistic about RDS reaching 1500+ during that period with 1600 starting to come within range: https://invst.ly/vsf04
Perhaps more importantly, the floor should be shifting upwards too.

G looking more robust yesterday and a good start today, positive moves whilst the noisy neighbours still falling - their support line much more fragile it seems.

Yes bunks. I agree. Closing prices are more significant than intra-day spikes and the sp will also weave around OP rather than follow it rigidly. Unfortunately, whilst the negative drift between sp’s and OP has been evident in other oil co’s since the end of March, it has been particularly severe with G: https://invst.ly/vs0vh It did correct sharply in the week leading up to ex-div but we know what happened after that.

Ha! Did you actually make a case?
Jury seems undecided on the breakout - a good start this morning but fell back somewhat. Securing 1050 would break a seven month downward trend for CWR. A tussle worth winning and it does look much more promising than it did last Friday: https://invst.ly/vs0er

RDS doing well this morning against the general market backdrop and weaker OP:
https://invst.ly/vr-9t
If it secures 1408 as a new baseline that will be a real step forward.

Do you mean manipulation or normal market downgrading? I think the latter.
I also think it's clear when it happened: https://invst.ly/vrzru - the boot largely got stuck in back in May, knocking roughly 20% off the sp, at which point it was down to 137p at an OP of $69 - so it's only a couple of p lower today.

I can’t honestly see any difference in what we said, bunks:
G stepped up first, in the 15 mins leading up to 14.30, whilst Brent was heading for a low which it reached around 14.45. Brent subsequently recovered after 15.00 when G was showing signs of slipping back - hence my comment about underpinning G’s earlier rise. https://invst.ly/vrv6h

Hi Ed - if my insights were fantastic I'd be worth a bob or two and I'm not. I find that they can tilt the risk a bit more in my favour and also help me quickly recognise when a price is changing direction. Some people track prices on spreadsheets etc and some, like me, use charts to get a visual on the trends etc. others use more sophisticated technical tools. I use the chart facility at investing.com . It's quite intuitive. ATB.

Meanwhile: an interesting trend developing (purple) and worth keeping an eye on - https://invst.ly/vrrpz

Well there was a definite step up between 14.15 and 14.30 - which was then underpinned by a recovery in Brent. https://invst.ly/vrrhy
Every little bit helps at the mo.

What happened to today's posts? many disappeared... meanwhile RDS seems to have held onto 1408 thanks to some help from Brent: https://invst.ly/vrrc3 . (15' view)
1340 - 1380 remains on the radar, of course.

£15 should only be a matter of time - and possibly a relatively low longer term target given the trends and peer performance. RDS still has to prove that its dividend and buyback policies were the best options: https://invst.ly/vrnti
There are profits to be made in the meantime, of course - I added at £14.08 today and may accumulate more purely for trading if it falls back further. I don't intend selling any of my £11 core holding given the yield.

I agree Pokerchips - a lot depends on volumes, as you say. Buybacks are not going to stop a significant market move but can mop-up on quiet days.

It’ll be interesting to see how far down RDS now retraces. Will the share-buybacks raise the floor higher than the chart tends to suggest ?
1408 is a candidate but relatively new and untested. Perhaps a bit optimistic but given the recent results, divi increase and buy-backs it can’t be ruled out.
1380 has previously offered resistance on the way up but precious little support on the way down. The lowest trend line here, currently around 1350, should provide a fairly reliable bottom, with the tried and tested backstop still at 1280 if things get worse again. https://invst.ly/vrmj3

Well that's the gaps accounted for: https://invst.ly/vrltm

Yes, the steam has certainly gone out of the long term rise in OP which has run for over fifteen months (the blue trend here): https://invst.ly/vr5gv When Brent crosses the green and blue lines it will be more definitively levelling off, although it clearly hasn't tested the upper limits (red) for a while.
Still, EIA inventories were down a bit this week and the dampened price seems to be due to demand uncertainty due to Delta yada yada ... Maybe OPEC's policies will succeed in hitting a sweet spot of nominally $70 (+/- $5 ) : high enough for them and low enough to limit US and other non-OPEC production. $65 could push G into the 122-125 range based on current ratio to Brent and previous support levels - it depends how solid the 133 floor is. I've not regretted de-risking. If QD comes good then that should start to fix things. Unfortunately, it's not a dead cert - the original attempt, by a Canadian speculative outfit I think, was a failure. Chevron reckon they've unlocked the reasons but they still farmed it out didn't they?

No breakout this time around:
https://invst.ly/vr0hq
If it cycles back down, it will be interesting to see what the next low is, with 880-930 being the obvious target area.

G v the rest: https://invst.ly/vq-d7 At least it didn’t drop as far as DNO and outpaced RDS (which went ex-div after a terrific rally, btw).

G v reality: https://invst.ly/vq-f0 If the trend from May was bad the one through July and August is proving much more of a challenge. Something has to give by the end of next week though:- either the red or the blue (bottom right).

I absolutely agree bunks.
The KRG did say that if OP dropped back they'd review the Receivable Recovery .... nice of them.
I think the market valuation is now based on production revenue alone - with the RSA and other receivables effectively ignored. This would explain the 1/3rd cut in SP that we've seen. Bina Bawi hasn't been a serious consideration in relation to the sp for a long time because development of it appears to have become highly unlikely. Along with Miran, it served its original purpose of drawing investors in.