It's not just G11 Aug 2021 00:04
In truth you can easily run a GKP v G sp comparison selectively rebased to give results that favour one over the other. However, going back to when oil peaked in October 2018 does give a fairly representative view: https://invst.ly/vpjgp
This captures the pre-2020 position where the two tracked each other quite closely, the collapse of both sp’s in 2020, the late but sharp recovery of GKP and the recent fall of both to about 45% of their value when Brent peaked at $86.
In other words, they are back ‘in sync’ but both are much weaker against Brent than they were in late 2019, when G would typically be 200+ and GKP about 220+ at today's OP of $70. This sharp decline has only recently occurred in G from mid March this year, and probably dampened GKP's recovery at the same time.
Another interesting thing is that if RDS and CVX are added to the chart, then G and GKP are effectively back in sync with the European major, whilst Chevron is back ‘in sync’ with Brent over the period from $86 OP: https://invst.ly/vpkp6
One conclusion is that there’s nothing ‘G specific’ - although there seems to be a ‘KRI specific’ impact on sp. There is no obvious reason as to why G and GKP should have fallen similarly to RDS over the period - that seems to be mainly coincidental because RDS cut it’s divi last year - which explains its sp relative to CVX.
The good news - for eternal optimists - is that G has outperformed RDS and GKP on occasions during the last three years, so there’s an implicit possibility that it will do so again. Pessimists would presumably argue that G’s windows of opportunity have been progressively closing over the last ten years and, with the natural decline of producing assets and RSA time running out, there are precious few of them left.
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