Member Info for Boyobach

Brent was all over the place today, throwing a spanner in the works during the afternoon and ending a bruising week for G:
https://invst.ly/vg9v4

And a bruising month so far for the sector including all the KRI oilies, especially DNO :
https://invst.ly/vg9yd

Since 2019, you’d be hard pressed to choose between G, DNO and GKP.
G has generally had more time in the sun and suffered fewer troughs:
https://invst.ly/vg42a
They all took a massive slide from March 15th:
https://invst.ly/vg44-
G then saw a big advance over the other two - worth about 20p - prior to May 13th at which point that 20p gain plus another 5 or 10p got wiped away.
Given where OP is, they are all doing sh*t - but so is ‘gold standard’ Chevron, which is not much further ahead of them:
https://invst.ly/vg49g

DNO are arguably being smoked more than G - since the end of May that is:
https://invst.ly/vg3w3
All three on a downward path, but G had suffered the biggest hit in May (not shown here).
It seems set to get worse before it gets better.

An interesting tussle over the $73 Brent line today: https://invst.ly/vg3f9
Prospects for RDS finely balanced too on the newly critical 1380 line. The old trend is dead and its potential replacement isn’t established yet: https://invst.ly/vg3i8
That gap-fill would be jolly handy.

Well it actually says 'experienced mixed fortunes before Mr Hayward stepped down' , in other words 'during his watch'.
Now, there were clearly events and circumstances that TH had no control over. However, there would be questions about his reaction to them - as, indeed, there were about his handling of Macondo. Some would deem G as 'unlucky' but whether the company should have lost 66% of it's value in the process is debatable: massive Taq Taq over-valuation, expensive drilling campaign before solid cash flows were established, mis-judging/stating the timescale associated with gas resources... Just some on my list of observations

Strange times across the market and lots of jitters about inflation, COVID, stability of OPEC+ control of Brent, levels of demand etc etc and £15 is indeed proving elusive.
Brent could yet remain in an upward trend and it’s a bit too early to say with certainty that it is levelling off:
https://invst.ly/vfwty
Likewise RDS:
https://invst.ly/vfxgi
For some it is going nowhere (which I translate as cycling around a horizontal price line) whereas it is still within an upward trend where it has recently tested higher resistance (1450) rather more than lower support (1300), which is encouraging. If the H1 results are as good as they’ve intimated, then 1500 is within range but it rather depends on the market as a whole, which does seem to be in retreat right now.
Like watching paint dry, frankly.

Yes bunks - disappointing times across the sector and market as a whole but G coming off worst amongst the usual bunch since last Friday: https://invst.ly/vfy3q
G is plainly not enjoying market confidence since May 18th and remains 30p (16%) below parity with others like DNO or GKP and 25p (14%) down compared to RDS, with no sign of that gap closing. I don’t think today made matters much worse but things certainly haven’t improved.
On OP, I do have to remind myself that $65 average for the year was deemed above expectations at one time, that we are seeing prices at 2018 levels - better than 2019 - and that, despite the recent stumble,Brent is still within the upward trend - so may have further to go. Even if it levels off, G should be doing better than the current sp suggests: https://invst.ly/vfyze .

how do you propose we humanely arrive at a world with less people?

Humanely implies that humanity - through international agencies - has either control or influence over it. Population increase is concentrated in some specific parts of the world where that humane influence may be quite weak or ineffective. In developed countries then education and financial incentives/realities are already limiting population growth to more sustainable levels in many places. Religion, as in other critical stages of human development, has not always been a helpful influence, especially in less advanced cultures.

Point taken AquaeSulis - although some positive news regarding commercialisation prospects would not go amiss as inflation takes its toll.
The afternoon recovery did at least put CWR back above 940, so it continues to hold its own in comparison with ITM, Ballard, Plug Power and the CELS index: https://invst.ly/vfjny . Quite uncomfortable, nevertheless.

Well maybe you are seeing how the market feels about the lack of updates today.

I don't wish to be over-dramatic, so will just say that today's break downward is not good:
https://invst.ly/vfb96
Like I said on Saturday: 'it could go either way'
Let's hope it drops no further than 875.

Unfortunately Char, we may read your posts but some of the points you make get lost amongst all the repetition regarding Voda, Sains etc. Anyway - thanks for your reply which does seem to get to the bottom of it, where you say ‘ i find whatever share i swap does well for a year, then bang….’
I did recall that you were in ‘A’ and intended moving to ‘B’ - it’s a common mistake to be in the wrong one - and that also clarifies that you don’t plan to move from RDS, which means you think it is the best option for you at the moment. So it’s not all bad - just rather disappointing. I think a few here would echo that.

Yes indeed Jim - but you never know, exploring ideas rather than moaning might lead to a 'light-bulb' moment' for Char.
Or maybe not......

Hey Char - I wasn't telling you what to do, I was asking what you plan to do . You are clearly unhappy - and I can understand why, even though RDS is doing fine for me right now . So, given you are really unhappy with RDS, what do you intend or want to do about it? Is there another investment that you feel will outperform RDS? There certainly will be some potentials to choose from - we'd be interested in your thoughts.

char:Well still on the road to no where. Stuck at this impasse. ..
Yes indeed Char- the current trend (daily low closing price) is only rising at a rate of about £1 per month.
https://invst.ly/vemjq
What's your plan?

So what's your plan?

Barrie: you mention having ‘a trading position around 1400 looking to sell at 1500 and buy on any dips’

I’m rather hoping that, following the H1 results, the ‘top’ for RDS will move up from the previous maximum at 1520, so I’m not currently convinced that ‘top slicing’ at that level would be particularly attractive to me. My overall average is below 1200 so I don’t feel any great urgency to adjust it down by trading unless the potential margin looks very good or readily achievable, bearing in mind the risk of the sp continuing upwards and leaving me underweight. For me, much will depend on the behaviour of the sp as it passes through (or stalls in) the 1500-1520 band.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Contrarian-Investors-Approach-To-OPECs-Oil-Spat.html

Whilst I think that the comment here that ‘Oil prices have been reeling ever since OPEC+ talks collapsed on Monday …’ is typical attention-grabbing media overstatement (the three day pull-back from 18th May was deeper and more significant https://invst.ly/ve4xn ) , the rest of the article has some merits.

https://news.sky.com/story/former-bp-chief-hayward-plots-float-of-energy-transition-spac-12352984

Seeing Tony Wayward's name in the same sentence as the words 'blank cheque' brought a shudder. I'll not be reaching for my chequebook. Scroll to the bottom to find mention of G:

Energy Transition Partners will not be Mr Hayward's first experience of launching a cash shell.
In 2011, he raised £1.3bn for Vallares, an oil investment vehicle, in partnership with the financier Nat Rothschild.
The company acquired Genel Energy, which owned assets in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, but subsequently experienced mixed fortunes before Mr Hayward stepped down as chairman in 2017.
It now has a market value of just over £430m.
Mr Hayward declined to comment on Saturday.

I agree, Chilting, that the market is looking for commercial progress. This would also address AquaeSulis’ point about inflationary pressure.
I regard charts as indicative rather than predictive. Since April, CWR has effectively levelled out asymmetrically near 1020 with the current baseline of 940 being tested rather more than the upper limit of 1150. This does indeed suggest that the market is reluctant to value CWR more highly until there are commercial developments.

Yes, AquaeSulis, but, as they point out, it is a pattern that has not yet formed completely. It only becomes indicative when the next element occurs - hopefully an upward break through resistance. This would include a break through the red limiting trend, which, along with the lower blue, forms the handle in this classic ‘cup and handle’ pattern. I avoided speculating on that, using the word ‘tricky’ because, at this stage, it could go either way: a break down through the blue being much less appealing.

https://invst.ly/vds5d (chart as posted previously for reference)