Member Info for Boyobach

Why Are UK Shares Still Undervalued?

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/213529/why-are-uk-shares-still-undervalued.aspx
edited extract:
‘while the drive towards the low energy transition has taken on real urgency, these companies have plenty of time to get their houses in order. They do have the benefit of time … That transition isn’t going to happen today or tomorrow. It’s going to happen over the next 10, 15, 20 years …...investors need to see companies like BP (BP.) and Shell (RDSB) as “energy” rather than “oil” companies that can reinvent themselves.’

I think reaching £18 is quite possible whilst trading below £15 by the year end will be disappointing, Neversell.
Based on recent trends, the pale lines here give the broad price range by the year end as 1380-1800: https://invst.ly/vbs07
Closer view: https://invst.ly/vbrz5
It should be noted that RDS has been in an underlying upward trend since last November, despite some shorter-term pull backs.
The blue line gives the potential, if optimistic, top for 2021 of £20, based on previous highs this year. The red line shows the current trajectory over the last month - which points to a potential peak in the region of £16 in the next month or so, which is very conceivable if the Q2 results are as good as many are suggesting. If this works out then we’d possibly see RDS trading from £15 upwards, with £18 forming a potential top to that range by the year end.

I second that - the article is a well constructed and balanced piece.

Not to be confused with the other Duncan Hamilton (journalist) eh Jim?
The Elliott stuff would not be as amusing as I gather that book is.

Well it was about time that we saw G at the top of the week's list:
https://invst.ly/vbdvb
Everything was down since last Friday, of course.
G has a lot of catching-up to do since ‘not so lucky’ May 13th. Here is G against that lucky band of brothers since the 12th May close:
https://invst.ly/vbdw6
GKP still leads the list, despite one of its two ex-div days. G meanwhile would need to be somewhere north of 180 to be keeping up with the pack - so is effectively 25p down in comparison and hasn’t started to make up the difference at all as far as I can see.

Yes indeed - and thanks for clarifying it'll be Q2, following my gaff earlier.
Expectations will be raised as a consequence of O&G prices. This two year chart puts some perspective on it: https://invst.ly/vb2ik
But RDS is not alone in the lack of response to O&G strength: both BP and the US cousin, Chevron, have similarly remained quite flat since March, with Chevron apparently only ahead because it maintained dividend.
For those wondering how Exxon is doing - same chart with Exxon added and BP removed: https://invst.ly/vb2ml
(Exxon also retained dividend)

On a less positive note: this shows how the RDS sp’s pace of progress has been slowing down:
https://invst.ly/vavxp
At this rate, it could be reaching a plateau in the 1500-1600 range unless the Q1 statement livens things up as it certainly hasn’t kept pace with O&G prices since late March: https://invst.ly/vawhz

Yes Neversell - 25% up over the last month!
And Brent hasn't actually stopped either - people tend to watch the 'highs', but it's the 'lows' that give you the trend when a price is rising: https://invst.ly/vaue5 .
Brent average for the year to date is $65, starting to rise above 2019 FY . It's that average, rather than the day to day price, that ultimately matters.

Whilst I’m sure we were all glad to see confirmation of the KRG payment for April, the total was disappointing wasn’t it?
On looking closer, the production revenues for Taq Taq and Tawke were just about on a par with February, despite the fact that April’s OP was firmer. We know Taq Taq is on the fade, so it’s the Tawke number that grabs attention. In the end we’re really guessing at the levels of production and the month's oil-price calculation: here’s a chart showing the approximate average oil price for each month. Does April’s payment still look disappointing? Even allowing for the drop in receivables recovery rate from February, I’d say it does. The good news is that increasingly better numbers should be on the way for May and June’s production, which should each match or better March’s $31m unless there’s some other factor in play: https://invst.ly/valv-

Ha! Yes - I think you can nearly always make 'em fit after the event, Jim. But that's not much fun is it?
Interestingly the steepness doesn't seem to matter as long as the successive impulse waves each go higher (there are rules governing that, I believe) . The numbering of the waves defines their direction so, for a rising pattern 1,3 and 5 are up and 2, 4 are down, with the subsequent correction (not shown) being labelled a and c down and b up. All of that is reversed for an sp in a long term falling pattern. So you don't need to use two numbers to identify a given wave -just the end point. If you look at the article then you'll see what I mean. I can tell you are even less convinced than me about it - Ha! - at least Hydrogen seems positive. In the end, Elliott's theory cant't tell us if QD is going to be a success - and that's what we seem to need to fire things up.

"Why should we be able to buy a vehicle, as now, that is well capable of breaking the 70 mph speed limit? "

Entirely correct, although the range of motive performance must deal with hills and sufficient acceleration to keep traffic flows at optimum rates - hence a degree of excess capacity in terms of power. But the point is well made - and it’s ultimately journey times that are influential, not necessarily the top speed achieved. There’s not much point in doing a 300 mile journey at 70 mph if you spend an hour charging the battery at the half way point. Better to do the whole trip at 60 mph with just a 17 minute toilet break….. Oh, er, that’s the same journey time isn’t it? Bad example - most of us just do commuting, schools and shopping for most of the time, so it's perhaps more about having the right car for the trips we do most of and hiring a car for the longer ones. Transitioning from car ownership to efficient and on-demand car hire maybe? Now there's a business for Shell.

Profit taking as predicted....
Yes indeed Essexman. Around 22% within a fortnight was a no brainer, especially when it hit the resistance at 11.50.
Chiltern, I think, suggested that sellers would be in short supply because there are plenty holding at higher prices. But isn't it true that the volatility in any stock isn't the result of steady buy-and-hold LTH's? For them today's setback is just part of the big picture and, if they were smart, they will have top-sliced and earned around a £1 a share in the process: https://invst.ly/vagec

Are Elliott Waves a thing? For some chartists they are. I’m a simple trend watcher and, whilst I think Elliott waves are an interesting theory, they usually seem to be easier to spot in retrospect than to predict - which makes them fairly useless for me.
One guy who uses them is John Burford and this is a good example of how he uses them in connection with ITM, a stock you might find interesting too: https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/chart-week-should-you-buy-itm-power-shares-dip-ii520666

Anyway, FWIW, there seems to be a possibility that G’s chart fits with a text-book Elliott scenario, so for amusement rather than any deep conviction, here’s my take on how G might continue based on this model: https://invst.ly/vae4w
My classic Elliott fifth wave would be somewhere in the region of the dashed line and progress beyond the previous peak, with 230 the most obvious target but potentially beyond that, although Elliott’s theory suggests that wave three is usually the strongest of the five. All to be taken with a big pinch of salt.

I don't think your 1.79 for P/E can be correct H - it implies a profit of 86p per share - but I reckon FY revenue will probably be less than that, maybe 75p / share? so the profit per share would be .....? Anyone's guess till we see the H1 . I haven't got time to check these numbers right now, so apologies if they turn out to be wrong.

.... or maybe £26.3 - there's a rounding error in the RNS.
Good to see receipt confirmation for April’s production and a very clear RNS which removes the questions remaining after the last payments update. The total is quite disappointing at $26.4m - $4.7m below that of March, which may prove to have been an exceptional month. So I’ve reduced my revenue expectations to around $290m for the FY, based on a monthly average of $28m for the remaining months.

BaldEagle - No misunderstanding on my part about the distinction between cells, battery packs and modules. At battery and module level there may well be higher voltages present according to the design and configuration. Safe handling will be achieved by removal of a service plug (or equivalent device) so that the exposed main terminals of the battery are not at a high voltage and present no danger. This service plug breaks the circuit at both ends - exactly as I suggested would be the case.

Exactly.... in sync with Chevron (CVX): https://invst.ly/v9o7g

https://renewablesnow.com/ is an interesting site - thanks for the link Andrbea - I spotted this one whilst I was there:

https://renewablesnow.com/news/swedish-steel-mill-to-install-17-mw-hydrogen-plant-745424/
Extract:
According to Lars Stenqvist, Volvo Group chief technology officer, green hydrogen will be an important energy vector for long-haul and heavy freight transportation. “Decentralized hydrogen production in the steel industry fits very well with the transport industry’s need for fossil-free fuel,” Stenqvist said.

I never look at RDSa , Char, but just checking today on a 15' view I can see that you would ideally optimise the timing of your move from A to B (RDSa is the violet line here): https://invst.ly/v9lmq . I would probably use my trades in order to progressively switch over rather than do two separate exercises but I can understand why you might choose otherwise. I'm guessing you've made up to £1 per share on recent trades? Good work if so.

We are in uncharted territory, Neversell - as this chart going back to 2014 shows:
https://invst.ly/v9doh
The current (green) trend is steeper and longer than the previous big rise of 2017/18 (the dashed line is a parallel to aid comparison) and it has broken above the previous limiting line (red). This time around it’s not clear if/when US shale production will kick-in - it has previously put a ceiling on OP but I’m sure that eventually the rigs will jump back into life and kill the rally. Until then $85 does look possible before the seasonal cycle pulls it back. But, whatever happens, the rise will almost certainly stimulate overproduction and a consequential bust -unless OPEC+ control it. Which is possibly why RDS and other majors (plus a particular Kurdish IOC) are not responding proportionately to the hike in OP. Enjoy it whilst it lasts, Neversell - my hunch would be $85 top but a lot can happen before it gets that far.