Member Info for Boyobach

Shell, BP and OP up today but Chevron and Exxon are down?
https://invst.ly/v4u17
Why?

The Motley Fool author, Sheldon says: I did take a loss on my Shell investment. My average purchase price was around £23 and I sold out for £13.20..... that's probably going to look silly in the next couple of months.
It seems like he wasn't exactly adept at managing his investment? £16 should have been about his average purchase price - but reasonably capable 'traders' would have done a lot better. 'Buy and Forget' is not smart.

Well you are right about RDS being sluggish, Bimmer, but 'a couple of years' is a long way from here - and a 50% gain from £11 is just £16.50, which you'll very likely see this year given the overall rate of sp growth since October.
The Q1 disappointed the market and the Hague court ruling has been hyped somewhat by the press - the court actually found that RDS is not presently in breach of its reduction obligation, as the claimants argued and there is no immediate impact on RDS. BP is ahead (supported by share buybacks) but responding slightly less this morning.
https://invst.ly/v4o59

I'm guessing that disposal of the Permian assets would assist RDS' CO2 reduction targets because of the excess gas that is notoriously produced in the region. The quality of oil is not necessarily good either: this year old article explains:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-02-25/to-manys-dismay-permian-produces-more-gas-and-condensate-instead-of-oil-and-profits/

Interesting point, Capitalist. I don’t follow BP news and I now see they started buybacks at the end of April? Often, well controlled buybacks seem to be a steady hoovering up of the low-hanging fruit - so accumulation without inflating the price. The result tends to be the formation of a firmer floor without unduly inflating the price. There’s no doubt that BP has firmed up since they started, although volumes appear to be falling if anything. This chart shows BP v RDS with BP clearly pulling away from early April (ie before the buybacks commenced - anticipation maybe?) and volumes at the bottom:
https://invst.ly/v4hh0

I agree with your comments re spike to 1500, Gavster, in fact I think the spike could be higher as part of a more sustained rise.
Comparison charts are inevitably selective. I use them a lot but am always careful with the reference (rebase) point and the context. BP does appear to be ahead of RDS but it’s debatable by how much and they invariably weave around each other - as this longer-term comparison, including Chevron, demonstrates: https://invst.ly/v4chm . Nevertheless, in the recovery period since all majors hit a low at the end of October, https://invst.ly/v4ci9, BP has pulled ahead of RDS by around 10%-12%, which seems to be due to disappointment with the RDS Q1. In reality, they both have a long way to go to catch Chevron - largely due to the dividend issue (as discussed separately) and, maybe to some extent, energy transition strategy - where US companies appear to be under less pressure to change as quickly. A year ago, RDS spiked up to 1500 and BP spiked to 365, with Brent at just $40. it seems bizarre that they are both well short of those levels today with OP at $70+ and the supply glut effectively gone.

Char: ‘all the above mentioned stocks cut their dividend + have never recovered the share prices from before. So why will RDS buck the trend?’

The trend for sp’s that fall steeply and reach bottom is often, but by no means always, to recover to some extent. I happen to think there is upside for RDS from the current position. However that does not mean I think it will necessarily make your recovery target - whatever that happens to be. At any given time we have x amount of capital which we aim to place where we believe it will perform best according to our own personal targets and appetite for risk. If you think your capital can do better elsewhere then you should obviously consider moving it. To that extent, the past performance of VOD, SAINS and TSCO is irrelevant when considering RDS’s prospects.

Bugerov: ‘I would be interested in hearing how the slashed dividend is the damaging factor to the SP….’

I think that’s fairly easily demonstrated by direct comparison between RDS and Chevron, a pair that had been tracking each other closely until the sharp drop across the sector of March last year:
https://invst.ly/v420m
The divergence between the two started ahead of the RDS Q1 results and dividend announcement on 30th April and deepened sharply thereafter. BP, which also cut divi, followed a similar path. In mid 2019 RDS was around £25 and it ultimately fell to a minimum of £8.50 -pretty much pro-rata the cut in divi. However it has since recovered and the sp today is about 65% of the level it would have been had it continued to track Chevron. It is now a matter of debate as to which company’s approach will come out of the ongoing challenges better.

Let’s face it - today was all about GKP and a stunning performance from them since last October: https://invst.ly/v3zz8

In terms of monthly revenue from actual production (ie excluding recoveries and RSA), I now make GKP ahead of G by just over $2m per month
Here’s the usual weekly group summary: https://invst.ly/v3-9x

In terms of directly comparing the sp of G and GKP, do bear in mind that their similarity of price range is coincidental: GKP was restructured in 2016 and the ‘new’ issue sp, after 100:1 consolidation in December 2016, was 127p with G at around 74p at that time. So GKP should be approximately 70% above G’s sp based on equal performance from that date - ie 260p today. Here’s a chart rebased to Dec 2016 with Brent, CVX and RDS also shown :
https://invst.ly/v3zuc

Interesting to compare G with GKP since last year's price crash: https://invst.ly/v3tt3

Good results from GKP obviously - strong cash position and the special divi. Bear in mind also that their monthly revenue from production is $2m more than G currently ($22m for March v $19.8m). Recent strength of GKP might have reduced the upside?

Thanks for clarifying Char - pretty much what I thought.
I think your much earlier prediction of up to £18 for this year might still be achievable if OP remains firm above $70 . The sp seems well established above 1280 now and +300 from here seems very possible to me given the bullish vibe regarding OP.

Correction: 1250 line on that last chart was misplaced:
https://invst.ly/v3lng

Has Char sold out?
I'm sure he'll correct me but I was under the impression he'd held most of his stake from somewhere above £20 and that his gloomy posts were primarily to express his regret at holding on to them for too long. Like many here, he appears to buy on dips but almost immediately have doubts. And who wouldn't at the moment? With Brent at $72+, RDS is below its equivalent 2010 level of 1600-1700p (weekly chart from June 2008): https://invst.ly/v3kxp . The current sp is arguably rational in relation to the declared level of dividend alone, so Char is correct when he says that the sp is going nowhere at the moment - the market is obviously waiting to see how much cash flow is being generated and, given that it is not being distributed, how it is being used. There's plainly no market appetite to push the price up on the basis of assumptions. I'm optimistic about that - but Char isn't. As he says - time will tell and neither of us should have too long to wait.

.... making up for Tuesday, maybe?
https://invst.ly/v3kmh

The fundamental causes of RDS's decline at the time of the 2008 crash are substantially different to those which drove RDS down in 2020. Let's not forget that Big OIl went into the global 'pandemic crash' with the added problem of a global supply glut and price war, which ultimately forced US Shale into another bust, giving OPEC+ back some degree of control over the supply and demand balance. The situation is very different now.

The following article is primarily about Exxon and Chevron but mentions RDS along the way. The two US majors did not cut their dividend and that is the main difference between them and RDS. But by cutting dividend RDS has used the cash to strengthen the underlying value of the business. RDS will now be generating cash at very respectable levels compared to 2019 and imv there's more upside remaining here than with either Exxon or Chevron, where the sp was supported by retaining the dividend rather than minimising debt etc. It's certainly not a time to be selling because the dividend yield is fine for those who managed their average sp down to around £12 or less last year and, on a comparative basis, the sp gap with Chevron is worth about £5 and very likely to close up as energy demand persists. It may be out of favour with institutions but, ultimately, the cash it generates must go somewhere. Dividends are not everything - as the Dividend Irrelevance Theory explains.
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/exxon-chevron-powerful-rebound-set-to-continue-200479778
RDS v Chevron: https://invst.ly/v21dw

According to my records, G’s sp started 2021 with a two year average ratio of 3.1x Brent. Today the average remains just above 3x despite very low performance over recent weeks. The green line on this chart traces 3xBrent against G and clearly shows how G has performed against this historic ratio over the last sixteen months: https://invst.ly/v1z5g
This longer term chart is more of an approximation to 3xBrent but the green line still shows fairly accurately where G’s sp would have been at that ratio: https://invst.ly/v1zcn
With revenue, including receivables, returning to 2019 levels, Bina Bawi (& Miran) unexploited, Sarta flowing and the potential of QD, it does beg the question of whether G’s sp is realistic today given that it has dropped to early 2018 levels with respect to OP. Payment reliability is presumably the critical thing (as always).

Did G get the $11.3m for March Recovery and Override according to the KRG's own revised payment schedule or is that slipping already?
According to the last RNS on the subject:
The Company has not yet received payments for March's invoices under the recovery mechanism, regarding which it is engaging with the KRG on their proposed amendments, nor the Tawke override. Assuming the proposed revision to the terms of recovery stands, the recovery payment will be $3.1 million. The override payment will be $8.2 million. Given the proposed new schedule, Genel expects to receive both payments shortly.

I just read this article posted by AquaeSulis over on CWR. Thought it might be of interest here - especially after the recent 'disproportionate' fall: https://www.griproom.com/fun/10-signs-your-stock-is-being-manipulated

Good article AquaeS -thanks.
The comparison with ITM is indeed interesting - the tracking is quite uncanny considering this is a 15' chart: https://invst.ly/v1rv3 (CWR v Nasdaq CELS and ITM)