Member Info for Boyobach

Yes indeed, but all oil co shares seem to have the same issue:
https://invst.ly/vdt4x
Even so, G should be nearer to CVX and GKP here - at least at 180p

RDS managed to stay ahead of CVX, Exxon and BP since last Friday’s close. Here are the four of them compared to Brent and the FTSE100:
https://invst.ly/vdsz2
Not bad for a cr*p share in an out-of-favour sector.

G and GKP finished the week strongly compared to others but what has happened to DNO?
https://invst.ly/vdstj (compared to Brent since last Frday’s close, 15’ view)
Never mind, under the current circumstances, nearer to 160 than 150 is an achievement. Will the H1 report provide any lift next month? G’s cash flows must be miles ahead of 2020 levels even if the sp isn’t.
Thr three year view isn’t exactly stunning, especially for ‘cup and handle’ watchers: https://invst.ly/vdsum

It's a tricky time for some holders: https://invst.ly/vds5d
A few stop-losses ripe for picking off I suspect.

Chart guy getting excited here about OP in this article and with a different 'take':
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/chart-of-the-day-oil-rally-stalls-at-key-longterm-juncture-200485707
Interesting scenarios covered.
FWIW I think the current trend for Brent remains up - I’m not anticipating a serious correction for the moment - although that is what has always happened at this ‘red’ juncture in the past. To me, the price may well remain above the historic red resistance trend from 2008 (which I position rather differently): https://invst.ly/vdrqj (monthly view from 09/2007). However, I don't think it will be as dramatic as ‘a breakout’ would suggest. If OPEC and US Shale maintain discipline, then medium term stability in the $70-$80 band looks possible. But if it spikes much higher then we all know what tends to happen!

It’s a good point, casapinos.
Additionally, the recent ‘bust’ for US Shale has bankrupted some of the producers that were borrowing to keep drilling simply to replace the natural decline in production and thereby service their debts. There is supposedly more capital discipline in US Shale now than previously.
However, greed always seems to enter the equation once the OP rises too far and the UAE, amongst others, are obviously keen to grab a bigger share of the market. Also, the US still exerts political influence over KSA and will want to stop prices rising further.
Apart from a fairly stable period during 2018 when it averaged around $75, the ‘sweet spot’ for Brent has generally been $60-$70, with peaks beyond that range being followed by sharp and deep corrections. https://invst.ly/vdp9r . With demand still below pre-pandemic levels but rising, it may well be possible for that ‘sweet spot’ to move upwards again but downward pressures will increase as it does so.

Just to clarify the ' 25p hit' appears to be the comparative gap that has remained between G and GKP based on today's chart: https://invst.ly/vdody

G and GKP have been quite tightly in sync since the beginning of June - good from the point of view of consistency, but bad regarding G's failure to recover from the '25p hit' in May.
https://invst.ly/vdo1n

the days when big oilers went up with the oil price are over….

Well RDS seems to be doing just that this week: https://invst.ly/vdnem

we’re still nowhere near £15….

But a lot closer than a month ago: https://invst.ly/vdnhw

it was up 40p when i went to work, only for it to be down when i returned home….

Looking at the big picture might be less depressing. Day traders need to watch minute by minute but LTHs make different calculations. The context of the wider market is a factor too.

As Lutra says, it’s a matter of perspective - for some of us RDS is doing really well. In the end, though, what’s good for us is good for all. If you took your cash out of RDS at this point, Char, could you do better elsewhere? If you are convinced it is cr*p then shouldn’t you be moving to something that isn’t?

Brent may have paused in its march upwards but it’s too early to say that it has stopped climbing:
https://invst.ly/vdmvf
In fact, given the ‘green’ day yesterday and this morning’s start, the steeper blue trend from late May could well continue.

If the volatility of oil upsets you then you shouldn't be invested in an O&G Co .
Brent has just tumbled by 5% over two days and all oil co’s have experienced a drop. Whilst BP fell 5%, the RDS drop was offset by the positive reaction to the T&O update https://invst.ly/vd0xc
It's really not that surprising: The trading update was good but the market was already expecting that and is waiting for the Q2 numbers proper. So, there was a bit of froth in the first hour today but it never pushed the sp above Tuesday’s peak and it had started to fizzle away by the time Brent fell sharply below $75 in the afternoon. Vodafone was largely unaffected, of course, so I can't see the connection there.

It’s good but not all rosy:
'Integrated Gas: Trading and optimisation results are expected to be significantly below average and similar to the first quarter 2021.'
Nevertheless, there should be steady progress from here onwards.

all oilies collapsed end of the day.What's worse for Genel is it never rose when all others were rising.....

To be fair Ammu, that’s not correct in relation to the last four trading days - assuming that’s the period you’re talking about? G actually did marginally better than GKP, Chevron and RDS over the period: https://invst.ly/vcnt2 (that comparison is in 15 minute ticks since last Wednesday’s close). I’m also pretty disappointed with G’s recent sp performance but the damage was done between the 13th and 30th of May - as the last chart I posted shows ( https://invst.ly/vcj1u ). G’s performance over the last week or two has matched the others - it just hasn’t closed the gap between them.

The Americans really do have influence on OP and at $77 levers will get pulled to cool the price.
'They' - Republicans and Dems - like to see WTI in the $50s - never forget that.
Even with a green agenda, which should discourage ICE usage through higher OP, you're likely to see a lid on prices - either through politics or through increased home production. Spikes may happen but don't count on prolonged periods with Brent at $75+ . That's probably why the sp hasn't tracked OP upwards much since March. https://invst.ly/vcl73

Ha! So glad to find it's an EV Hub not an EV, Neversell!
If RDS started manufacturing vehicles I might be a little worried.

Thanks for the GKP div correction JP - I was quoting off the Fidelity website which incorrectly shows it as £0.117 - which I should've realised was wrong but as I don't hold GKP the number didn't leap out at me. I think that, in any case, I was slightly understating the gap between the two - probably more like 30p (on a comparative basis not p for p).
G has certainly lost ground to GKP since early May. But, as GKP has showed since the end of October, if G's assets deliver then they should catch back up. It's all swings and roundabouts - plus the KRG Rollercoaster, of course. I'll just send a wider view of that chart to justify my '30p below GKP' comment : https://invst.ly/vcj1u

Article summary:
The upside risk to oil prices is still greater now than the downside. Yet, don’t be surprised if the market consolidation/correction sets in faster than thought, despite the OPEC hype of no cuts.

https://uk.investing.com/analysis/oil-prices-may-correct-despite-opec-hype-of-no-cuts-200485050

Personal note: For RDS results, it’s the average over the full year that is relevant. I think that any increase in the $65 average for the year to date is likely to improve the sp from here. Every day that passes with OP above $65 improves the FY average, whilst only days below will reduce it.

A view of G v GKP in 15 minute ticks since May 10th shows how the two have tracked each other, including today’s rise due to OP (even though GKP took a steeper line this morning it was a tad delayed): https://invst.ly/vcfr5
G remains about 20p below parity with GKP, although the latter still does have a dividend payment of around 12p due in August (ex div on 29th July), which would ordinarily close the gap.

The rise was late in the day to be fair..
But a rapid rise is worrying isn't it? how will the KRG keep up with the payments? (joke).
Now, at 3x $OP (G was stronger than 3x a year ago in the grips of 2020) that'd be ..... 231p sp.

So Brent is just shy of $77. For most of March that would have been sufficient to put RDS near £17....https://invst.ly/vc5cp