Member Info for Boyobach

Not much to see today was there? Phew!
BP and RDS both opened about 2% down from Friday’s close - chasing Chevron which had dropped 1.9% on the US market after London closed on Friday. RDS then led BP for much of the day but BP and Chevron overtook it after the US market opened. All of them lagging Brent, which in deepest Kazakhstan - as indeed it is anywhere trading on ICE - is knocking on the $75 door again ($74.85 when I last looked). Disappointing to see RDS close just level with Friday’s close, although I guess it could've been much worse.
I'd love to post a snapshot of all this but Investing.com 's sharing facility isn't working tonight (all data from that site).

For the record, Getafgrip’s full sentence, which I foolishly thought referred to an unchallenged cancellation, was this:

‘The strategy they alighted on was 2/3rds cancellation of anticipated Interim Dividends for the immediate future! I am not aware of any legal challenges to this, but they would have no foundation, even if they had announced the Interim Dividend.’
(taken from his 12.59 post yesterday)
Apparently he was not talking about a cancellation that had not been challenged - so I hope we’ve all got that straight now. Silly dyslexic me!

Cheers Barrie. Getafgrip was perfectly entitled to criticise my apparently controversial comment that divi payment day is irrelevant from an sp movement point of view. Our debate wasn't very illuminating though, because it descended into bickering about who said what and what did they mean rather than revealing any useful information....
So apologies for my next post.

Getafgrip: You seem to be wriggling away from the initial argument about whether a share price should be expected to change significantly on dividend payment day. My view remains that, for a business in proper control of cash flows, the sp mainly adjusts on ex dividend day and in anticipation of the payment rather than on the day it actually occurs, rendering payment day itself largely irrelevant in the context of sp movement.

In the course of this debate, you suggested that dividend payments could be stopped between ex-dividend day and payment day, which could surely be described as an unexpected cancellation that might be challenged. You then implied some kind of parallel between that scenario and RDS’ reduction of dividend last year, which you misleadingly referred to as a cancellation that had not been challenged. I have also never said that cash flow is unimportant in the context of running a business. You can twist around the semantics as much as you like but you still haven’t justified your criticism of my original statement that payment day is ordinarily irrelevant in the context of sp movements. Nor have you produced any supporting references. The subject is now closed as far as I’m concerned and I don’t intend to respond any further.

'The strategy they alighted on was 2/3rds cancellation of anticipated Interim Dividends for the immediate future....'
Misleadingly put Getafgrip - RDS properly declared that the dividend policy was being changed and this was fully approved and communicated prior to ex-div date. There was no 'unexpected cancellation' involved after the declaration.

Although the NASDAQ CELS index has been in a rising trend since mid May, CWR has been going in the opposite direction this month:
https://invst.ly/v6rzk
It’s arguably ‘back in sync’ with the index from March 18th relative to the fund-raise price of 1060. In the meantime it’s obvious that its peers, Ballard Power Systems (Canada) and PlugPower (US) are not doing too well either:
https://invst.ly/v6s18
Of the three, CWR appears to have been the least volatile over the last year or so:
https://invst.ly/v6s56

The market capitalisation of a company naturally adjusts with the sp on ex-dividend day, thereby anticipating the dividend outflow and marking the point beyond which new shareholders are not entitled to the payment. Any further market reaction to dividend payment would imply a lack of financial stability. If new shares are issued on payment day, resulting in dilution, then that’s a separate matter. In the unlikely event of a company canceling dividend payment after ex-div date then the sp would react immediately - and not, I think, positively in proportion to the retained cash! Serious legal challenges would almost certainly arise for a variety of very obvious reasons.
Here’s a second and comprehensive reference from me in which there is no mention whatsoever of any material impact upon an sp occurring on dividend payment date. I have yet to see anything credible that suggests otherwise:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091015/how-dividends-affect-stock-prices.asp

The exceptional circumstances of Deepwater Horizon have no logical bearing on explanations of the generic and standard dividend payment process.

I don't have to try - it's a fact. Some folks may think the payment date affects the sp - and I guess it could if sufficient investors decide to plough the cash immediately back into the company but, other than that, of course it doesn't.
The cash distribution is known and committed for payment well before the date it is actually paid - it makes no further difference to the company's book value once it is approved for payment. On and after ex-div date anyone acquiring shares should be aware that they will not qualify for the up-coming dividend and that the sp reflects this - irrespective of other factors that may have also influenced the price.
All reputable references on the subject explain this very simple process , eg:
https://budgeting.thenest.com/paying-dividend-cause-stocks-price-down-29217.html
'When one of your stocks pays a dividend, there will be one day when the stock price drops because of the dividend payment. This ex-dividend date effect actually works to maintain your investment value. This effect is temporary. '

Well, was it just the FED that put the spanner in the works this week?
https://invst.ly/v6lb4

G really weak at the moment, like an unvaxed idiot at a rave in Bolton - simply vulnerable to the way the wind blows (15’ view):
https://invst.ly/v6lq9 It all went TU in the market this pm but notice how G was fighting the trend up until 15.45. Fair play!

Hydrogen :- we are suffering with KRG syndrome - it can lead to depression and paranoia. GKP are not - but they'll probably have a hangover after the divi party and they see who they are in bed with.

I don't understand the mystery about ex-div - the opening price, arrived at within the pre-market auction, will ordinarily take account of the fact that purchasers will not receive the dividend. Anyone bidding in the auction and unaware of ex-div should not be in the auction. The ex-div discount will also account for the fact that capital for the distribution has been committed by the company - the payment date is actually irrelevant as the dividend exists as a liability when it is declared and approved. Other factors may weigh on the sp on ex-div day and sometimes the sp will even rise despite the ex-div adjustment. It is just one component that happens to affect the price that morning but, if the sp is already weak then it can sometimes appear to give it an extra nudge. The price will naturally recover over a period of time if the next dividend seems safe enough. If the yield is something like 4% per year paid in four lumps - Like RDS - then it only causes 1% variation in the sp anyway - so what's all the fuss about?
I see Char has reminded us about Vod, Sains and Tesco - which, along with RDS have three things in common: Firstly, they were all held at some time or other by Char. Secondly, he never tells us how his experiences with each them have improved his investment skills. Thirdly they all went up and down as, in fact, do all shares - especially when the market as a whole is moving, like today.
Just remember - the trend is your friend and, using the appropriate view to suit your trading or investment strategy, should tell you when things are potentially going off your personal set of rails: https://invst.ly/v6kn2 . RDS is till firmly on the right track for me - but then I know what my expectations are. If I allow my investment car to hit the curb and it rolls down an embankment then I know who to blame - and it won't be Vod, Sains, Tsco or RDS.

$150+ oil Hydrogen?
Ha! -Please can I have some of what you are smoking?
You seem to be in real bullish mood recently - what do you think inflation (as per your other post) is gonna do for Oil and G in particular? I thought the dollar would slide - which has a mixed effect because it stimulates demand but it isn't worth as much....

The budget deal only reduces the risk of G being ripped off even more...

This year-old article is still worth a read if you’re not sure how the KRG budget functions (or, more correctly, doesn’t) and how it affects the IOC’s and their share price:

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-serve-us-interests-saving-kurdistans-economy

Quote:
it is tempting for a government to look at international investors [ the IOC’s] as a soft target, since their assets are stranded and they lack the local political clout of the domestic population. Yet investor confidence in Kurdistan is already very low due to a series of previous crises: the 2014 Islamic State uprising, the 2014-2015 payment shortfall, and the ill-fated 2017 independence referendum. Even before the current emergency, the KRI was beginning to miss payments to its investors in late 2019 due to the stranding of its financial reserves in Lebanon’s troubled Bankmed—a major red flag since many investors are required by law to announce non-payment, and all of them can suffer huge share price reductions and withdrawal of financing.

So is G's sp making any real recovery since the collapse in sp since May 13th and is the 'penny for penny' difference in sp with GKP warranted ?
Compared to ‘underperforming’ RDS it would seem that it isn’t - even the continuing strength of Brent hasn’t stimulated G’s price by more than that of the sluggish major. This is a 15’ ‘trading’ view of G compared to RDSb:
https://invst.ly/v5zgk
And if we compare G with GKP through the entire period from late April, then the picture is this, where GKP’s recent statement and dividend announcement added the step:
https://invst.ly/v5z-z
GKP’s rising trend after the ‘step’ is pretty much the same as G’s and the step would translate to about 10p in G’s sp.
So the conclusions?
G’s rise against GKP prior to May 13th was wiped out on the day and it fell back into line with GKP on the 14th but then suffered a further drop to 135, which GKP did not experience to the same extent. That ‘gap’ - ultimately worth about 12p to G - has not been closed since. GKP then experienced a step up, equivalent to about 10p against G’s sp, leaving G about 22p down in terms of equivalence with GKP.
Of course, GKP’s dividends (annual + special) appear to be worth nearly 17p per share in total and I believe half of that will be paid during July which might well reduce the effective difference to about 15p.

Yes Ammu- and today hasn't improved matters!

Chart correction: 3xBrent shown about 10p high against G in the last post: https://invst.ly/v5hig

A three year view of G v 3xBrent: https://invst.ly/v5h7i
With Brent now above $74, 210+ should really be a given under current circumstances with 230+ a reasonable target.

Indeed Barrie - RDS has broken above the rising trend of the last week: 'trading' 15' view: https://invst.ly/v5gno .
With OP rising, there's no point for LT holders to sell unless they need the cash. The pressure towards 1600 may well continue.

Yes Barrie - Q1 didn't keep the ball rolling here, let's hope Q2's statement - still a long way off - is a bit more stimulating. At least RDS is now chasing the likes of Chevron and BP as they chase Brent, having fallen behind over the last two months: https://invst.ly/v57ya

Brent is showing no signs of retreating - onward and upward for now in a similar pattern to 2018 - only this time US shale is maybe not as well placed to put a tin lid on it.
https://invst.ly/v530c

I agree that environmental pressures have been somewhat delayed in impacting US companies have but , for me, yesterday's sharp divergence between the US and EU /UK stocks pointed to a likely cooling off of RDS five day rally - even though I'd say RDS still has a lot of catching-up to do. The Morningstar piece posted by Neversell didn't tell us anything that we don't already know - but it did provide some confirmation about the current undervaluation by pointing to a 'fair value' sp of £22. The sp is only now showing signs of recovery after the March pull-back in Brent: https://invst.ly/v52c0