Member Info for Boyobach

Last month G was paid a total of $26.3m (net G share including receivables recovery and RSA payments) for April’s oil production. This compared to $31.1m for March - when OP was around $1 stronger and the month was a day longer. Hence my comment that the payment was about $4m below (my) expectations. The shortfall was largely due to an apparent drop in Tawke revenue which was $2.6m down on the prior month plus a related RSA amount, so was around 13% below my expectations. This could, of course, have been due to timing.
The next payment will be for May’s production, when I reckon Brent was averaging $68 - higher than all previous months in ‘21. So it seems reasonable to expect G’s net share of revenue to match or better March’s figure of $31.1m. I certainly hope so.

I think it's usually only worth looking at intra-day prices if you are contemplating selling or buying.

Ha! Our expectations seem to be a lot more modest than they were three years ago!
.... which is perhaps just as well.
Last month's payment was about $4m down on expectations - can it get worse?

The unfortunate fact about G is that, whereas the likes of BP, RDS and GKP have all dropped back recently, none of the others have dropped back to their late 2020 support level: https://invst.ly/vjfer
G has undoubtedly been the worst of the bunch since mid-March. https://invst.ly/vjfjl

There’s been a lot of nervousness in the market over the last fortnight and RDS has not been alone in taking a tumble. Here it is against the FTSE100 since July 1st 2020: https://invst.ly/vj7oy
We can see that the long term trend for RDS has been very similar to that of the index apart from the massive dip during September through November last year. Meanwhile Brent and Nat Gas have been flying, with Brent remaining within the steeper rising trends that have characterised its price range for some months: https://invst.ly/vj7px . Notice that Brent didn’t actually break lower last week - as many expected - so the upward trends (the steeper green and the more measured cyan) are still very much ‘live’, with those ‘v’ shaped ‘plunge & recovery’ patterns becoming something of a regular feature. Consequently, $80 Brent still appears to be a possibility and it could be an interesting time leading up to H1 results.

Here’s my usual weekly comparison chart: https://invst.ly/vix4o . G has made no progress in recovering from May’s loss of value.

This nineteen month chart gives an indication of how the KRI companies have fared against Chevron (reference major) and Brent since pre-Covid 2019: https://invst.ly/vix83 . As we all know, G’s resilience and quick recovery last year has given way to quite dismal performance of late and the sp is currently weaker than it was 12 months ago, despite the fact that monthly revenue has tripled in the meantime (based on July 20 being $9.8m and my estimation that this month’s payment should total around $30m)

Although there have been some retraces en-route - Brent has been going in only one underlying direction for 15 months: https://invst.ly/vivbo , as supply continues to tighten. However, oil co. sp’s - including G - have generally not kept pace with it.

Just for completeness, here's that chart with Nat Gas added:
https://invst.ly/vikqo

most under performing share in the sector....

Have you got a reference and link for that char?
It's ordinarily a subjective assessment, based on the period selected and the criteria used - so the statement needs some qualifying information. I assume you are referring to sp performance rather than any other measure?
As has been discussed many times, RDS (and BP) reduced sharply against US majors as a consequence of the dividend cut last year, in other respects it continues to track them:
https://invst.ly/vikab (chart shows RDS against Exxon, Chevron, BP and Brent since Dec 2019)
The dividend cut results in the diversion of cash for other purposes such as debt reduction, share buybacks or growth in new business areas which are aimed at improving long-term investor value. Those investors who disagree with this approach should have considered the prospects for Fossil energy and the impact on RDS as OP started to decline in 2019 and as covid accelerated the collapse in price in Q1 of 2020.

I'm not sure which 'both' you are referring to Barrie but I thing RDS has dropped faster than the wider market (FTSE100) today although not as sharply as BP so fa. The firework has apparently been lit and I'm standing well back for the moment.

Anything's possible Bimmer but I broadly agree , I've marked the levels I'd be anticipating here:
https://invst.ly/vh0p6

Yeah. The whole market in retreat - so harsh on most this morning. G not particularly hard hit by comparison to, say, BP, DNO or GKP. Be interesting when the US opens...

.... so the updated situation, which is rather less contrived as regards the blue wedge line, looks like this:
https://invst.ly/vgxbb

what's happened to the support level ?
930 was broken last week. We are looking at 800 now: https://invst.ly/vgw-u

Like Hamilton gaining a couple of seconds per lap on Leclerc yesterday, maybe we’ll see a similar trend with G v the noisy neighbours and others over the next few weeks. Today’s weakness following the OPEC+ news at the weekend was to be expected but some people are still very bullish regarding OP - like this Citigroup fella:

'The market is very tight and a supply increase of 400,000 barrels a day will turn out to be a pittance....... Demand is significantly higher, despite the Covid-19 pandemic exploding in parts of the world, and oil prices are likely to climb much further by the time summer is over'
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/heres-what-citigroup-to-goldman-say-about-the-opec-oil-deal-2419065

That daily tick chart was rebased to 28/5/21, by the way, not the date shown in bottom left. Corrected version here: https://invst.ly/vgvls

If RDS is on the road to nowhere then so are BP, Exxon and Chevron. Why hasn't Char followed his own assessment and found something better?
https://invst.ly/vgvbz
Meanwhile, some Brent price weakness was to be expected following the relaxation of OPEC+ production. Any OP north of $65 is fine.
And , although I'm not sure I agree, if this Citigroup man is correct then: 'The market is very tight and a supply increase of 400,000 barrels a day will turn out to be a pittance....... Demand is significantly higher, despite the Covid-19 pandemic exploding in parts of the world, and oil prices are likely to climb much further by the time summer is over'
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/heres-what-citigroup-to-goldman-say-about-the-opec-oil-deal-2419065

I was actually agreeing with Tartine's comments - but most of us seem to have similar thoughts...

Yes bunks, I agree too. Although all companies seem to be failing to see a rebound in sp that 's proportionate to the strength of OP.
If it helps at all, here are some notes to put G's recent price action in context. I think it’s worth noting that G has tracked GKP and Brent perfectly well since the end of May and has actually outperformed DNO and Chevron over the same period: https://invst.ly/vgia9

As we all know, G’s sp suffered a setback between the 12th and 28th of May but the gap between G and the others that opened up has not worsened since then, indeed it seems to have improved slightly. Looking at the same group since 11th Feb, https://invst.ly/vgii2 the divergence between G and the others is easy to spot. At the worst point, G was effectively 33p down against CVX (measured against G’s price scale) but by last Friday’s close the difference had reduced to 20p.

A long-term view of the four, going back to pre-pandemic December 2019, shows that G has outperformed the others for much of the time but is now back within the group:
https://invst.ly/vgiq8
It’s not as exciting as we’d like but at least G’s performance isn’t totally off-track and should improve significantly as Sarta production increases and if QD proves successful.

There's a small gap of 1.2p to 170 which appeared on the 13th May.
With oil having hit $77 since then, I'm astonished that that gap hasn't been filled yet
I can't see any others that are outstanding, even going back to when the sp was 230p+ .

Yeah - I think you can blame Brent's usefully timed $1.5 dive in the afternoon for that!