Member Info for Boyobach

A fortnight ago, with Brent very similar to today's price, G went down to 135.6. The fact that it has hit 134.6 today - given Friday's RNS - is pretty good going. The value hit concerning BB seems to be evaporating. I do agree that 133 is probably going to be a tough resistance to cross, however.
https://invst.ly/vvcu1

a placing or funding round could be in the 30s if the price keeps falling... Got to be buys at that price??....

Why must it be a buy given the lack of progress following the IPO?

Sorry typo, meant 31p,...
You mean support then (not resistance) ? Previously established at about 42p with a brief spike to 35p

This afternoon, G has certainly been closing the gap with Brent that formed after last Friday's RNS: https://invst.ly/vuzyg

Gaspunter - polling the chat….

I can say that £23 is not on my radar within the next 12 months.
I do think that £17 could be achieved in 2022.

So, rather than join the rant, I thought I’d assess whether there’s any merit in reacquiring G now some of the dust has settled after Friday's RNS. Here’s my rather crude attempt at estimating the effect of it upon the sp with the fluctuations of OP filtered out as much as possible: https://invst.ly/vukwh
On this 15’ view, the drop overshot to about 115 and has since recovered - at today’s close the sp is 127. To me, it seems the underlying sp fell by about 13p, with a rough estimation of the sp currently given by 2x$Brent -13p . This is very rough and ready - but it does help me to figure out if the sp is steadying up and also allows me to spot any potential entry points. It does not, of course, answer the question of where OP is headed.

Previous losses or gains with an existing investment are only relevant if you believe that they are likely to continue: they have occurred and there is no going back.

To evaluate an existing investment consider where you would place the cash (including under the mattress) and whether it is likely to generate a better outcome for you than where it is currently placed.

You’ll find that people who hold RDS at an average cost above £20 per share will tend to have a different view of their investment compared to people who’s average cost is below £12 per share. However, the future prospects are identical for both groups.

?
Re: 'Seems to be resistance at 41p.'
What is that observation based on?

Thanks for the comments.
I think the bounce in Brent this morning came as a surprise to many, including myself. I had pencilled-in 1300 as a possible sp at $60 Brent - at which point I would probably have added. However, I’m more than comfortable with today’s price moves and to see that RDS has strengthened against Brent as the latter has fallen back from recent highs : https://invst.ly/vt--8
Not that Brent is necessarily done with $70 yet: https://invst.ly/vu05f .

Interesting comment’s Alas_Smith.

I don’t think you are the only one who is disappointed to see RDS performing buy-backs when investment in transition should be a high priority. However, there is a balance to be achieved and if there isn’t an immediate use for the cash then proportionate spending on buy-backs may be a prudent option. As PI’s we have our own choices about how to manage our personal transition strategy. RDS remains part of the mix for me - I don't regard it as an ‘all in or all out’ situation. In terms of renewables, there are risks there too and few are offering much in the way of income for those who require it. I’ve had some success with CWR, for example, but it’s not been plain sailing and it’s still early days for them. RDS may well be waiting to see which energy technologies begin to dominate mass transportation, heavy goods and industry before they make any significant moves.

The following chart is an attempt to demonstrate how the RDS sp has compared to that of Chevron during the last 20 months. I've chosen Chevron’s sp as the benchmark because it does not appear to have been outperformed by another major over the period. Prior to 2020, the two sp’s would track each other quite closely but in early April last year they began to diverge and RDS cut its dividend later that month. This resulted in a gap which has averaged about £4.50 in terms of the RDS sp. The support/resistance lines on the chart are labelled in pence (2200 is at the rebase point of 0%) and the red vertical lines each represent 450p:
https://invst.ly/vtqkn
At its widest, in May of this year, the gap reached about £7 but it has since reduced to around £3.75 currently - roughly in line with the improved dividend. The Chevron line is an indication of the path that RDS’s sp might have been expected to take had the dividend been maintained and the two companies continued to perform similarly. The current gap of £3.75 therefore represents the difference between today’s sp and what might have been expected had the dividend been maintained, ie approx £17.60.

Looking from the outside now but keeping G on my watchlist, I think bunks made a valid point about potential trading opportunities here. The fact that Friday’s spike downward did not come near to testing 110 support and G closed at 122 (support) were encouraging signs.
I am less convinced about the prospects of G having a 49% option in a future gas PSC - if only because the language in yesterday’s RNS seemed to reflect a stand-off in relations with the KRG - there were no particularly encouraging or conciliatory words that I could see. For all the criticism that has been levelled here at G’s RNS communications, I think they have always played a straight bat in formal texts.
Might I trade G in future? Quite possibly but, as in the past, always mindful of the risks and the need to protect capital (including a margin of some accumulated profit) with a strict exit strategy. G was on a good run through to March 12th and had an interesting surge leading up to ex-div. The KRG has since inflicted a great deal of damage and, at the risk of being misunderstood, I’d always be wary of such peaks in G’s price if they occur in future. I recall something similar happened in Nov 2019, shortly prior to the payment debacle. That said, G continues to be a cash generative producer and can be judged on that basis alone.

SeekKnowledge: I think OPEC are to[o] quick to increase production [therefore] it will be hard to go over an oil price of $75.
Do we need oil over $75? That would just stimulate overproduction in the US and elsewhere, creating the volatility that has crashed OP previously. The ‘sweet spot’ appears to be in the region of $65-$75, which served the sp well enough previously. The current pull-back in OP is probably helping margins somewhere in the system, so not all bad news I'm sure.

SeekKnowledge: I think the Vaccines are not working well against delta….
I think you need to be clear what you mean by ‘working’:
Protection from becoming infected
Protection from hospitalisation
Protection from death
The last two matter most and, as far as UK data is concerned, vaccines are very effective by those critical criteria. The most recent government figures show hospitalisation levelling off at around 6500 which is far below the peak of nearly 40,000 people back in January. It is also worth noting that Northern Ireland has runaway infection rates, due largely to the delta variant, but a lower uptake of the vaccine.

Cheers chaps - I'm out.

You might be right lampedusa but G actually held up well today against the drop in Brent. I’ll leave you to judge if GKP did as well: https://invst.ly/vt0ff
GKP dropped 4.57% today against G’s 1.45% (according to Investing.com)
Here’s GKP with its main support line: https://invst.ly/vt0ik
And G’s equivalent: https://invst.ly/vt0ku
There’s no guarantee things will stay this way and GKP has tended to be more volatile since they both fell in 2020. However, GKP appears to have been more fragile over the last fortnight as OP has softened .

Today’s drop effectively brings RDS back into alignment with the recent drop in OP after Tuesday and Wednesday took the sp in the opposite direction. https://invst.ly/vt0b2

Hopefully a short-term factor. One advantage of the lower Brent:G ratio should be a smaller direct effect on sp today, with the $1.5 drop in Brent since yesterday’s close theoretically having no more than 3p impact, if any.

G does seem to be firming up, bunks. We ideally need to see it cross the thicker of the red lines here (basically staying above 138, except for minor intra-day dips): https://invst.ly/vskdi
If G starts to rally I might move some cash back in but, TBH, my enthusiasm for this one is shot after about eight years. QD and Sarta may prove to be brilliant - but the lure of 'jam tomorrow' stories from G which never quite materialise has worn a bit thin for me. One thing I've learned from G is that the narrative (including company, media and bb chat) is mostly a distraction - keep an eye on the trend, especially when the price moves out of it. ATB

Lotus schmotus….
As long as it closes ‘up’ it’s a result today - or were you looking for a retrace?