Member Info for Boyobach

The buy and sell volumes ultimately match up. The price varies as necessary in order to make that happen.

Everyone back at their desks then.
Best month yet this year, supported by June OP.
Tawke doing the heavy lifting (44%)
Receivables and Override contributing 40%
G Production doing the rest (about 16%)

I'm a LTH holder in RDSb, Ed - so I would not ordinarily exit entirely but do trade by + or - 25% of my holding and am currently overweight by 25% which I could offload now at a profit but I think Q3 results will be good. I don't hold BP but it does seem to currently be at the lower end of its range - so I'm tempted there. I assume that you are referring to broad market indices and, yes, I think there are risks but RDS (and BP) don't necessarily track them in direct proportion -https://invst.ly/vyrjn - there isn't an OP war in progress this time around, inventories are lower and gas is strong. With cash there's inflation to consider, too.

Cheers CapitalistP - it’s an interesting dilemma when the price rises to a resistance, as BP did for you on Thursday: Will it turn or will it progress to the next level?
The decision point looks a bit cleaner with BP (shown against Brent from Feb: https://invst.ly/vyo87 ) than it does with RDS (also v Brent from Feb: https://invst.ly/vyo6l ) though both were about to breakout when OP fell sharply on Aug 12th and neither have fully recovered despite OP bouncing a full $1 higher. So, logically, both have accumulated some upward potential. I like to see the possibility of a quid or more gain with RDS and 25p+ with BP when I add and am usually prepared to hold if it doesn’t get to target in a straight line. I think the red limiting line in both charts effectively represents ‘covid uncertainty’ at present: lots of upside potential if the next month or two goes well.

Yes indeed Ed - From a trading perspective, would you say that BP might be the more attractive at the moment?
https://invst.ly/vykfn

I dug the following out of Malcy's blog in relation to the BB RNS, bunks. I'm no fan but it does represent a positive argument. One problem is that he doesn't expand on his view of the assets - I guess we might find that further back in his blog:

'When all is said and done, for Genel the core value in Kurdistan is their oil business and this move is not a distraction to them in any way, in fact with what has been a most protracted brace of projects it could make it a cleaner company. The market will be keen to see ongoing payments, and as confidence in these returns then the value inherent in the oil assets should again reassert itself.'
Full text: https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/08/oil-price-genel-sdx-and-finally/

Sad to say but, apart from six deceptively good days in May and some respite in early June, it’s been downhill for G since the March results:
https://invst.ly/vy7g0
Overdone? Possibly - but with override payments in their last 12 months, Tawke/Pesh not destined to last forever and BB/Miran set to be never more than a dream, a lot now hangs on Sarta and QD.

My own target for November (post Q3) is £16 and a narrowing of the 2020 gap that opened up between RDS and Chevron: https://invst.ly/vy71i

Despite the excellent H1 results, divi improvement and stronger O&G prices, the sp remains very suppressed compared to March. Here it is against Brent (green): https://invst.ly/vy6cq It seems that, like last year, we’ll have to wait for the Q3 results to see any real action.

That ‘mini breakout’ I mentioned on Tuesday unfortunately came to nothing and the drop back has simply reinforced the limiting trend (red) that G must break through in order to go anywhere positive:
https://invst.ly/vxr3l
As ever, it’s the ‘highs’ that indicate a falling trend and the ‘lows’ that point to a rising one. It had been looking hopeful up until yesterday.
OP is not helping: With the current uncertainty, it seems risky to base thoughts about G on Brent continuing to average $70+ indefinitely and the G:Brent ratio has dipped to below 1.8x this morning.

The Doosan news has come at an excellent time for the sp, given the two trends that have marked its progress upwards since late July:
https://invst.ly/vxi2c
It might well have run out of steam at 1200 but has been given a boost today that could keep it on a trajectory not seen since January: https://invst.ly/vxi39

I'm not back in bunks as it's only back to the levels at which I started to exit, with little convincing sign of a sustained recovery. If I do re-acquire then it's likely to be in small tranches because I'm not anything like as optimistic about G's long term these days. 140 is starting to feel like it's the new 190 to me and a fall in OP - like the recent dip to $65 - seems likely to push the sp back to 120. Obviously, QD and Sarta could improve the outlook. I am sceptical about the fall since March, which intensified in May: were doubts about Bina Bawi's future already circulating? The KRG payment RNS was disappointing but hardly merited the drop to 133, whilst the recovery to that level after the BB announcement seemed extraordinarily swift - it's as if BB was anticipated to some extent. I think that resolving it could be very protracted and expensive, with no certainty of a positive outcome.
https://invst.ly/vx93c

Ignore the date at bottom left of that last chart - the first candle is for 30/7/21.

BH week, bunks - give it a day or two, maybe even till next Monday.
G doing well today, moving positively whilst other oil co's are generally a bit down compared to Friday's close.
A 'mini-breakout' is putting it back on its early August level compared to Brent:
https://invst.ly/vwrnb
So the 'Bina Bawi effect' seems to have been neutralised for now.

Two years ago, in a report about the Miran write down of $424m, Chief Financial Officer Esa Ikaheimonen was reported as saying that talks with the KRG about BB were “as challenging as it gets”.
https://www.reuters.com/article/genel-energy-results-idUKL3N2171UA

The KRG v Dana case is an example: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-dana-gas-arbitration-idUSKCN1BA272

Excellent points by bunks, btw.

Pangloss: Why are you so interested if you're out?

.... as a potential buyer obviously. The recovery from 115 is interesting as it has been stronger than I expected. However it does seem to have been heavily dependent on the bounce in Brent, which makes it risky.
Until mid-May, G looked very likely to achieve 200+ , with 230 a reasonable prospect.
Have the fundamentals changed sufficiently since then to warrant the drastic fall in sp from May 12th? Clearly the upside to 200+ would still be of interest to me IF it is still a realistic possibility.
G had withstood a fall in Brent in the days leading up to the BB RNS - so the drop in price to 114 arguably consisted of two elements: the potential loss of all gas resources plus the coincidental fall in Brent during the week leading up to it: https://invst.ly/vvx5l
When compared to GKP over the last couple of weeks, G is actually only about 4p down: https://invst.ly/vvx6u so maybe the market hasn't been highly concerned by the BB RNS .

With G's sp currently running at about 1.85x OP, it needs Brent to lift a bit more to solidly get over 133.
More to the point, what does the top end look like for G? If it can make it to 2x and Brent averages $75 we're looking at 150.
Is that really the best to expect?

Yes Muzzar - Chri55's posts did't make a lot of sense to me: he seemed to refer to support as resistance and also overlooked the historic support at around 42p. I also can't imagine a fund-raise being successful. What did they do with the £60m from the IPO? That should have generated something worthwhile surely? They'll have to have a jolly good story next time they pass the hat around!