RE: Placing15 Mar 2020 23:05
Pashman : Yep, agree that it was indeed highly fortuitous that UFO BOD managed to gain the investment when they did.
Des/JTF : Yep, agree that certain Trolls don't seem to be able to swallow their pride and accept that other Users can actually make a valid, reasoned call; they seeemed to think my sudden reversal from Strong Buy to Strong Sell was somehow 'misguided' or the ramblings of a fool :-)
As for UFO, well; yes the COV19 issue was going to be a major impact. In part it is somewhat 'over-stated' but it does represent a major impact on Health/Treatment resources; which is the big issue. It is going to SERIOUSLY shake-up a LOT of businesses that are going to suffer both short, medium & long term; particularly, hospitality, food (restaurants, hotels, B&Bs) etc.
I too, like so many took my eye off the ball regarding the OPEC meeting and, had I paid more attention, might of gleamed a hint of the impending potential trouble brewing. This double wammy has certainly caused strife. It resulted in my being hit with a 13% drop on the one day I took my eye off. Thankfully, I managed to regain the losses last friday during some day trading and managed to scrap back almost 5% profit margin across my entire portfolio. It's a real bummer though as I could have been sitting on a lot more.
However, UFO isn't looking that good. Why did I change to a heavy sell?
Partly because of the Coronavirus; also because it was clear that UFO's Cash Balance was in dire straights. UFO had only £0.3M after current Liabilities in June'19. This was perilously low given their indicated cash burn. So a Raise was on the cards meanings there had to be a decent % drop coming - and it came.
The BIG problem is that the £700K itself isn't enough for the next 12 months. UFO clearly intends to hope for a sale of at least the Donovan site; remember their half year report statement:-
"Where preliminary studies evidence sufficient mineralisation, increasingly comprehensive studies will be undertaken with a view to delineating a compliant mineral resource estimate in readiness of potential sale of the asset to a producing mining company, at which time a significant premium over its acquisition and development cost may be justified."
UFO also stated that they wanted to 'diversify' and were looking a t a number of other optional sites, notably in Australia.
This Diversification can only come from them receiving much needed cash to commence and run parallel activities; hence my view that they need to potentially sell - and in the next 3-6 months.
In the meantime, unless they release a VERY Favourable RNS soon; the SP is likely to drop now.
Note: The "Market Dynamics" have fundamentally changed; Gold etc are no longer acting as Safe Havens. People are 'Extracting' Funds for bleaker times rather than having them locked up. Negative Interest rates; Hysteria and Government Draconian antics are going to make the next 3-6 months Financially, seriously 'Awkward'.