Member Info for bottom_feeder

To be honest, I've never truly believed that the MMs DON'T use 'signals in addition to private communications to (shall be be 'fair' and use the word) 'CONTROL' the market [AIM].

however, what signals exist, and what they mean isn't something I try to identify or decipher.

I always rely on good old-fashioned technical analysis and monitoring news along with other research.

Maybe EARACHE is referring to me as a 'self-proclaimed' guru - if so it's very funny. I certainly don't proclaim to seek to influence others or try to shout out that I'm right 'IF' the market moves in the way I predict.

I do however, like to offer an opinion (and that's all it is) as to what I see potentially developing.

So in that vein let's do some 'predicting' based on good-old fashioned tech analysis using Bollinger Bands, MACD & RSI.

UFO is a VERY interesting stock to me because it has some VERY CLEAR breakout signals. I haven't been able to go back and review previous trades to se if there are any "300 signals" or other such "trade related signals" on or around these UFO breakouts.

So, given that shares can go UP as well as down - I apologise if some of you will simply look at my 'predictions' and say "Yeah the guy just said the share is either going to go up or down - hell there's no way he can be wrong is there!"

Well, in this case it's NOT about being right or wrong about which way the share goes; what is IMPORTANT is whether there is a trading strategy that can be defined that can provide a net profit regardless of what the share price does over the next 1-2 months (or even earlier).

So my overall prediction is this -------

1) There is a VERY GOOD indication that here is opportunity to make anything from 70% to over 900% in the next 1 week to 2 months.
2) If the chart drops down and performs the double saw-tooth spike with intermediate (1 or 2) plateaus then it's possible to generate a 30%-50% intermediate profit, buy back in as it drops to grab an additional 5-10% then wait and gain option (1).

That is , Option (2) gives a very nice gearing effect.

So, here is the prediction.

A) In the first instance, Earache 'may' be right that there is some 'end of year' surge. This is where there might well be a jump of around 60% - 70%+ briefly. There is a 'weak' Saw-Tooth formed that indicates a small possibility of this. So Buying in now to top up (but maybe only using 60%-70% of reserves could give the increase specified - but the spike is probably short lived. So sell as it spieks up and don't try to predict the top - it will drop back very quickly to current levels.

B) The one I am hoping for and seems more likely is price drops slowly over the next 2-4 week, bounce s up to a higher point than present by 3-5 point. In between there will be either one or two plateau periods of only 2-4 days.

When the upper spike forms as a result of the SP dropping to around the current price then the big spike will be in 1-3 weeks. This coul

P.S. Thank you for your input regarding Simon etc.

I know many are trying to provide helpful 'guidance' and that's appreciated; I'm sure people who have been badly bitten by losses will hopefully overcome the dilemma and realise that there are still profits to be made.

Investing is a hard life but has its rewards as well as humour..... and heartache

BOLFI

Okay let me be a bit clearer on previous comments.

firstly, I think I've made it blatantly clear to 'logical' people that I am not aligning ith anyone. People may perceieve 'alignment' as they see fit.

I give my own honest, researched opinion.

I give credit where its due.

I don't give chaff, even if it's due ... unless the commentator is being offensive, rude or violating the law (e.g. possible insider trading).

I do my own research AND I seek out any 'USEFUL' comments on chatboards.

I agree that anyone such as Simon or even MRTRIUMPG or others who simply make a statement that the share is going to go up or down, is frankly of no use and ignored - whether right or wrong.

As MRTRIUMPH points out, there is no point making a 'minimal' statement or trying to persuade others to buy or sell, without backing up the statement with reasoned (in theirhonest opinion) statements that aid people in 'APPRECIATING' their input.

If Simon or others want to ramp or deramp a share - fine, knock yourselves out; I'll make my own decision regardless; unless you give me reasoned facts or propositions that are helpful or enforcing or even CHANGING my mind.

I fell sorry for anyone who loses money.; after all we are ALL in this to benefit.

So..... I think I've made my points clear (I hope).

Now let's get own with generating more constructive posts (negative or positive, for/against the share).

BOLFI

P.S. Anyone who Trolls me will not be blocked - because one day you just might give me a little POW (Pearl Of Wisdom) that actually benefits me and others :-)

Earache,

Your username is apt if you read my posts then subsequently think that I am somehow 'aligned' with Simon.

The truth is that I know a hell about investment and know that UFO is still a substantial risk.

The one thing that generates biggest risk is that they haven't done any form of preliminary mining operation (preliminary because it may take the form of entering any previous working to excavate towards a possible seam pocket to identify viable recovery rates).

and of course all of this is dependent on them trawling through the maze of generating environmental impact reports, permit applications etc. thankfully it seems they are employing the services of an eperienced consultancy to help them with those areas of concern which will help smooth matters.

But this share won't begin to fulfil it's true potential for at least another 15-20 months.

What we will get in Q1-Q2 next year is an initial upturn based on more concrete results and the start of any excavation/recovery surveys - knowing where something is and getting it out is a big jump.

Luckily (imho) UFO may indeed begin obtaining Permits etc in Q4 next year (maybe earlier) and this will coincide with predicted hikes in precious metals, industrial metals (e.g. iron ore, zinc etc) as well as combined with likely Global market shocks.

Such events will result in the beginning of a up-stroke that may hike us into larger multiple returns than are likely in the next year.

So, putting it bluntly, Simon was right when he inferred earlier that current SP hikes were NOT indicative of a good imminent bull event (at least not yet). The SP actually dropped today (and I am soooooo happy about that as I gained a very nice averaging down).

So why don't you all give him a break, stop putting people down and accept that everyone has a right to their opinion. Maybe you can even apologise to Simon by saying that he might have been right (in this instance - or would that stick in your throat lol).

As for me, I agreed with him that there wasn't any reason to assume that the stock was going to gain momentum given the current situation.

And, if Simon or anyone who appears to 'dish the stock down' wants to do so during the next 3-4 months - hell yeah go ahead. I won't, I'll just give my honest opinion as to where I think issues and good news exists and base judgement on that.

You can accept or ignore my posts as you wish.

Personally, its more fruitful if people simply stopped 'gassing' and tried giving more productive input rather than 'trolling' others.

Festive times are approaching, it;s time to be merry and kind to your fellow investor. As a festive treat for me can everyone dish UFO shares down please for the next month (pretty please) ...... I want to average down a forthcoming £10k+ across 4-5 block purchases before February.

For anyone thinking of 'trolling' me for the above festive wish..... you would have to be nuts NOT to want this stock to drop so you

Agreed Simon

Some people do like to, shall we say, 'Inspire' this stock on :-)

In my view, at the current state of play for the company, I really want this stock to fall further ( as it appears to be doing as I write - down over 2%).

Reason being is that I really like the Risk/Reward prospects of this company.

The rewards are:-

1) They do appear to have some 'reasonable' drilling results - that may lead to possible extraction capability.
2) If the above event occurs, a "Royalty" company (preferably 2) may jump on baord.
3) Precious and other metals are seen to be a VERY Bullish market in the next 6-12 months.
4) If China do release a Crypto currency of their own the Markets in general will dive due to the American Dollar taking a Major, unprecedented hit. This will Drive Precious metals substantially.
5) It's very likely that there will be a medium to substantial correction to the Global markets over the next 1-2 years which will have a MAJOR benefit on UFO and other Miners; especially the "Royalty" companies.

So given, the above I REALLY DO want this stock to fall over the next3 months so I can gain more income to 'average down' with.

Then hold and hopefully watch it in Q2 onwards making me, and every other 'brave' investor become amazingly happy and content in the coming year.

P.S. I'm not actually trying to Ramp the Share up or down.

I'm simply expressing my view that this is a great potential reward AND I really want to be able to get in as low as possible. So in a way I want people to actually ramp it down - go figure. Now that's reverse psychology for the Chat Boards eh :-)

BOLFI (Best Of Luck Fellow Investors)

Errrr?

I've been away a bit so not sure who's claiming to be me or who is purporting that I'm someone else???

I do like the latest RNS about the new trucks.

Seems Aerial was right about the EDL BOD being 'newlyweds' in the Mining business.

One can only hope that they either have a Maintenance contract in place or know how to maintain these trucks well.

Q: I wonder if they know how to even change a tyre on one of these ha ha

What about my questions regarding Mr Pryor and EDL BOD engineering capabilities?

I appreciate you confirming the intended recipient of your .... shall we say.... rebuke.

But I was somewhat shocked by the 'depth' of your language which I believe isn't really worthy of such a website.

however, it was the reference to "ersefeeder" that triggered my response as it was a bit confusing as to your intended audience :-)

I'm not up to speed with the 'history' of this channel as only been following EDL for around 5 months on a rather haphazard basis. As such I don't know the history between yourselves and LG.

However, I think LG has a very real point regarding the loss of Mr Pryor if indeed he was providing the level of engineering knowledge and skillset that LG refers to.

Likewise, I'm not really one to cast accusations or aspersions to others unless they respond in an inappropriate manner (which I believe Bigeye did). I try to separate the chaff from the wheat and in that regard I guess the question to you both (i.e. Bigeye & Aerial) wrt to the information LG has provided is as follows:-

Did Mr Pryor's departure represent a significant loss to EDL in terms of Engineering skillset,
and, does EDL currently have that equivalent level of engineering ability or is LG correct in that EDL haven't effectively replaced him?

I think those questions are important, at least from my perspective because I just don't have the information at present as to what the BOD capabilities are.

However, given EDL's previous and current RNSs it does seem to me that my own interpretation, (which I would say conforms with LG' statement), that EDL's current engineering skills to carry forward their plans, is either very lacking or not showing itself???

You both must agree that having only one screener, one crusher, one washer etc is both risky and incapable of allowing them to in any way reach their proposed 6K-10K of washed coal (I may be wrong but I believe EDL IS referring to washed coal when quoting their monthly tonnage targets?)

Larrygrayson: Thanks for the info regarding the previous departure of Mark Pryor (who seems to be the only person in the company that had any real Systems Engineering skills P.S. Bigeye I am in fact a Systems Engineering Consultant working in both Civil & Military sectors so I do actually know a hell of a lot more than you about all of this :-)

As for the BOD they truly need to establish Contingency plans and cover the blatantly obvious vulnerabilities in their current setup - any reasonable engineer can see where they are both going wrong and what is awaiting them down the line.

Time for the BOD to get some common sense and seek professional advise.

Esquimo: Thanks for the referral to the 31/01/2018 RNS. Not sure what the BOD is doing but if they can produce so-called unwashed coal at 30-40 tonnes per hour then surely the best thing is to start ramping up additional equipment for the washed product.

You're right about it being a laugh :-) :-) :-)

If they were achieving 30-40Tph back then surely they should have looked to commence double shifts and create a very nice stockpile for future orders. Indeed, the stockpile by now would be worth a small fortune for them and allow the support of a long-term contract for larger supply contracts.

I must be missing something about this Board's abilities ????

The big question here is:-

Can EDL afford to buy new equipment as well as high the additional staff to run them in the near term???

More than 2 washers, sorters are needed if EDL is to achieve any market success.

Let's look at what they've actually said so far:-

1) The average washed coal output per day for a single shift is 60 tons.

2) The best record washed coal output for a single shift is 102 tons - but this is the record!

3) They only of one washer, sorter etc. so with single daily shifts they are at best looking at generating an 'average' 1800tpm- no where near the 6Ktpm to break even.

4) If they were to begin somehow maintaining 100 tons per shift (doubtful - and could lead to equipment malfunctions etc) then they may reach 3Ktpm.

5) EDL have said they will 'consider' introducing double shifts in the near future; Well, they need to introduce double-shifts now and with a daily single shift output of 60-100 tons they will generate 3.6K-6Ktpm.

This means they have to introduce double shifts NOW and hit their record production output on every single shift, every day of the month.

So, most engineers amongst us know that Murphy's Law will kick in and the plant is likely to suffer some issue.

Hence not only should they introduce another Washer but they actually need to introduce 2 new washers and likely additional equipment such as new separators, crushers etc.

Only this way can they possibly reach and maintain a steady 6Ktpm output and have a chance of reaching 10K+tpm.

So, one or more RNS's need to be coming out very soon about what the BOD is going to do to address this very clear 'black hole' (pun intended) in their production strategy.

Here's hoping the RNS's appear soon - and nothing happens to any of the existing equipment :-(

The Investor sat on the beach watching the tide going out further & further while everyone was running and scampering off the beach.......

Shouting......

TSUNAMI!!!

:-) :-) you have to laugh (or you'll cry)

Not sure.

I'm getting a Bid - Offer of 0.0975 - 0.09 on X-O trade page at present (08:07am) ???

Sailorchef: Stop your nonsense. You're trying to persuade people on the fence to stay put in your little field of grass.

Unfortunately, that grass is about to get seriously mowed.

It's my view and my money; so if you want to stay then happy mining. I'll be back when the prospects look much better.

I'm out - sorry but this is getting too risky.

Better to take my losses on the chin and wait for a future time, while seeking possible alternatives - but market seems to be in dire straights at the moment.

Good luck to everyone.

Sob Sob

JimR:

I agree that improvements, adjustments etc are definitely best carried out now but if you look again at the RNS you referred to I think you will see a number of things that really don't make sense wrt such a long rebuild time.

Firstly, when looking at the original Utah plant there are 4 sub-sections, each of which is effectively a CS production rig. I suspect that they originally designed it so they would load up all 4 chambers and run together; and that they only had one set of Valves to control the process.

Hence, the RNS states that they are fitting each individual chamber with their own Valves. This indicates that one of the chambers can already be running while the other 3 can have valving installed.

The RNS also indicates that one of the chambers also has the Conveyor already installed; hence why the RNS states that only 3 more conveyors are to be installed.

So, like I say, one of the chambers is already able to start operation once assembled - instead of waiting for all the other 3 chambers to be upgraded.

In my view AEG therefore has an opportunity to concentrate on the most complete chamber and get it up and running first. Then get others up and running as they complete the upgrade.

If we have to wait until near the end of the year then that in my view is incompetence.

You may also note that the last two list items (surge bin and Screw Press/Dryer) are independent of the CS Chambers (aka Standalone Plants [StPl] ) and hence do not impact on the ability to start production with at least one StPl within 3-5 weeks.

Obviously this is just my view - but I suspect there are many other engineers who will agree that a more Proactive approach can be very easily adopted by AEG.

So, YE - I stand by my previous comment about this being yet another AEG farce and worrying. No wonder there was some ruffling of feathers at the AGM.

ScoutS: Frsutration & Disappointment? - is a BIG understatement from my perspective.

I believe the BOD have been lying to shareholders for quite a while.

Let's look at the real facts:-

They stated that the Utah plant was operational in 2018. This was a 5TPH plant, not Test Reactors etc.
They were able to dismantle and transport the plant in less than say 6 weeks (although should have only taken 2-3 in my opinion).

Yet! They CAN'T put it back together before end of Q4 this year!!!!

AND..... They need a welding company to do it! What the F$%£££!!!!

There's something seriously wrong here! They didn't need any form of 'weld' related operations to dismantle it.

Maybe they are putting in additional support structure to cater for possible future weather events; however that doesn't stop them putting it together as it was originally then build structure around it.

There is DEFINITELY something fishy going on and I for one don't below the BOD are telling the truth at all.

The Utah plant was supposed to be operational! So, why can't it be rebuilt very quickly and producing CS.

This is all bull!!!!

grsshaw: Thanks for providing the link, much appreciated.

So,

Where did the reporter get the info that the 5tph plant won't be operational UNTIL Q4'19???

If that was from AEG then it clearly shows how terrible AEG is at recommissioning plants. The engineers required to help build the plant were supposed to have arrived by now according to AEG's previous statement. So there appears to be another 3-4 months required to put the plant back together and commission???

I'm not sure this is a reason for the reporter to be optimistic :-(

Personally, I think this HAS to be wrong? ..... I hope so.

Hi JimR:

Can you confirm what figures the report used to calculate the £7M from the 5tph Plant?

The reason I ask is that previous quoted net profits for 1T of coal was around $80-$90. Given this, even IF the 5tph plant worked tirelessly & faultlessly 24/7, every day of the year they would only produce around 43800 Tons. With the estimated net profit margins this gives a MAXIMUM $3.94M (@ $90 rate) - so the report seems to be using a much larger net profit margin of $160 per ton?

I also doubt that any of AEG's plants will be able to work at anywhere near 100% efficiency for 100% of the year.

So I would have thought a more realistic net profit from the 5tph plant would be more in the region of $2.8M-$3.2M per year.