Member Info for bottom_feeder

Trend wise this was expected to retrace back towards 13.5 or even towards 13.10; but the recent drop is the sharpest yet and a little surprising. unless there is a good reason (e.g. decent RNS about porespective clients etc resulting from recent Asian EXPO) then this should dip towards 13.10 before rising again.

As TruroTrader says; it's a rollercoaster ride but ever upwards from here I hope.

I view it as a good top-up opportunity :-)

thanks Littlegidding. Yep I use the Tech Analysis on this site to monitor the Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI which seems to give a decent 'picture' of trend etc at least.

yep, UFO & EUZ are penny shares but hopefully they are 'climbers' and add a little 'SPice' to the pot so to speak.

Not come across MXCT or GRP so will look into them.

Dav3J: I am kind of 'reconsidering' my tech analysis view as the current support and lack of trading isn't what I was expecting quite at this point.

However, interestingly EUZ (the other metals company I've referred to and which shows a completely opposite trendline as I expected) is trading more 'briskly' wrt SP; which is what I was expecting UFO to do here.

I'm hoping it's just a 'sticky' week and movement should initiate shortly.

Personally speaking; and somewhat greedily; I want the SP to drop briefly so I can grab a further Short Tranche batch of shares - I still want the shares to continue upwards; especially as I think this share can certainly double over the next 10-12 months (if not more).

but that's the market. I suspect trading is concentrating in others sectors at the moment (renewables) and will return shortly.

But being Short, Medium and Long in both UFO and EUZ is giving me plenty of no-lose options for sure :-)

Mr T : Yep I do agree with you wrt people selling without doing sufficient self-research.

And thanks for 'investment' support (i.e. good wishes).

You too; and here's hoping a spike occurs in next 1-2 weeks :-) (preferably in the right direction)

Littlegiddings: It would be interesting to know how much "Trend Analysis" you rely on and what Stats you consider appropriate for the likes of YGEN.

I monitor the Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI mostly as this gives me the different up & down trends.

I invest in mostly Biotech, Renewables & Metals at present and wonder if you have covered the likes of "UFO" and "EUZ" in particular at present.

Have you or anyone else looked into the Tech Analysis between UFO and EUZ.... it's an interesting 'plot' (pardon the pun). Seems the two companies are perfectly opposing each other at present wrt trend lines etc. A very interesting 'play' appears to be establishing.

MrT: ".... I noted a few mug punters sold today at a loss!!!"

Not necessarily a bad thing as you seem to imply.

for example, I was one who sold 'some' of my shares and reaped over 5% profit on that tranche over a 3 week period - not bad at all in my view.

I part sold because I could take a nice little profit during hat I consider a 'sweet spot'. I'm 'guessing' the SP will retrace slightly down towards the 0.17-0.18 mark now; so will use the total sale funds to gain a nice gearing for a future spike.

Logically, if the SP continues to rise and even spikes on earlier than expected good news, then I still have my medium and long tranche holdings to reap additional reward.

So, from my point I'm now on a no-lose ride. My current 'small' tranche sale should cover any 'medium' tranche loss that may occur; while my long-term tranche gives potential for a very nice Summer/Autumn.

If the SP begins to retrace in a defined-manner; and based on the RSI & MACD deviaitons; I might even sell the Medium term tranche to gather 10%-15% before buying back in to give myself further future gearing.

Compounding is the way to go! It's serving me well - thus far :-)

It would be nice to think others have done the same - but that's up to them as to their investment strategy.

P.S. Have you or anyone else looked into the SP relationship between UFO and EUZ.... it's an interesting 'plot' (pardon the pun). Seems the two companies are perfectly opposing each other at present wrt trend lines etc. A very interesting 'play' appears to be establishing.

So far I've only come across the two snippits of Warrant info (via Genomoweb service). I don't know how the Warrant quantities/batches relate in terms of the 9% and 27% values etc or what conditions are placed on them; but info might be useful to others.

Useful link for anyone wanting to subscribe (free) to GENOMEWEB for their daily/weekly email:-

https://www.genomeweb.com/companies/yourgene

Feb 19, 2019
==========
"NEW YORK (GenomeWeb) – Thermo Fisher Scientific has acquired a 9 percent stake in molecular diagnostic company Yourgene Health by exercising warrants it held in the company.

In addition, Thermo Fisher has further warrants that, if exercised, could take its ownership to 17 percent."

July 12, 2017
===========
"Premaitha will also issue Thermo Fisher warrants over 28,938,797 new ordinary shares, exercisable at 10.725 pence, which is a 10 percent premium over Premaitha's closing share price on July 10. The company will issue a second tranche of warrants over new ordinary shares on March 1, 2018, or earlier if it starts drawing on the second part of the loan."

P3T3R: I'm basing my (eager) forecast on the basis that YGEN expect to reach or exceed 15M+. This is a factor of 400% on the previously quoted £3.9M (for 78k IONA tests). This is a large increase over a short period; and given that the IONA test may shortly cover over 90% of the Global 'Sequencing Platforms' seems to infer a much greater take-up potential.

given the estimate of 50% annual growth and assuming YGEN will/should capture their current 'share' of that growth; I think a proposed estimate of £20M-£24M is 'cautious' to say the least. Remember, they expect to breach £15M+. Their previous Financial statement indicates "Organic Growth (which excludes Elucigene input); But, I consider this to be inline with the 50% 'growth' and doesn't cover 'Expansion' - which I see as two different things here for YGEN.

EXPANSION (and DIVERSIFICATION) is where the big increase is going to come from. Although any acquisitions etc are going to reduce overall profit, they can only be achieved 'realistically' from substantial increase in Revenue; which in turn spurs the associated needed funding.

Of course this is all in my own opinion but even if they breach the £24M as you indicate it will still be great going.

Maybe I should err on the side of caution - lets say £30M-£35M :-) :-) :-)

Littlegiddings: Thanks for your guidance/support.

Following on, I've been digging further and trying to gain better insight/understanding as to where YGEN sits regarding the IONA IPR, market opportunities etc.
So for myself and fellow shareholders here's the general position I see YGEN have:-

Thus far it seems (maybe others can clarify/confirm/refute)....

1) YGEN finally ceded legal proceedings with Illumina on the basis they license NIPT patents from Illumina AND modify their IONA technology to work on the Illumina Genetic Sequencing (NGS) platform. (Illumina receives a royalty for each test performed).

2) Combined with the above YGEN have collaboration with Thermo Fisher and this gives them access to the "Sequencing Platforms" that account for 90% of sample testing GLOBALLY. (NOTE: I would point to my previous references to the Sengenics Sequencing Array which is different and which YGEN don't include - yet?).

3) NIPT tests each year risen to 4mln from none four years ago - 2.6% of the Estimated 150mln births worldwide each year.

4) Previous research inferred Market growth in NIPT tests expected to be 50% pa (I think this is VERY under-estimated).

5) NIPT test costs typically £300-£600 each (dependant on type of testing etc).

6) There are 26 Million births in India alone - (c.w. 680,000 in UK); This is where the rapid growth in revenue will initially occur - YGEN aren't the only player - but collaboration with Thermo Fisher & Illumina gives solid foundation.

7) Q1-Q2 2019 YGEN achieved approx £3.9M revenue primarily based on IONA related tests (78k tests). This indicates a rough income of £102 per test. (seems like a lot of the £300-£600 test costs are swallowed up elsewhere?).

Given the above there appears no barrier for YGEN to establish an Exponential growth in revenue and SP.

YGEN should be able to easily exceed the proposed 17M revenue estimates shortly.

I would also like to think that YGENs revenue could easily run up towards 50M+ in the next financial year - if not more depending on expansion, competition etc.

Hence my view that there also needs to be a period of rapid acquisition/partnership in order to rationalise and condense market players etc.

This share therefore appears to be an absolute Stonker of a gift for my Pension pot - glad I came across it at such a Major Pivotal point in its development :-) :-)

P.S. In the Netherlands, ALL pregnancies are now screened. I expect this to be implemented in other countries, (particularly UK & USA - China?), as the benefit to Health care costs become much clearer; hence why I believe the proposed 50% annual growth may only be an initial (very low estimate). I expect it to increase substantially over the next 2-5 years.

Any ( "constructive") feedback gratefully received (negative or positive)

MrTriumph: You referenced possible further funding. Looks like there will definitely be some form of funding imminent...

AS per 9th Jan RNS:-

"...Once permission is provided Alien hopes to commence with four-six strategic holes as an initial programme subject to ***additional funding*** to further define the potential of the mineralisation and ensure each follow up hole adds significant knowledge and value to the project."

The noticeable thing is the reference to additional funding being required following the initial 4-6 drill Hole results.

Unfortunately, there is no info regarding timescales for the initial drilling nor whether this coincides with the upcoming/imminent site visits by the Technical Director [TD] and the inferred JV/Partner discussions.

However, as I mentioned w.r.t. Tech Analysis, everything seems well-placed to initiate a possible SP-ike following the likely RNS from the [TD] visit (timeline tbd - but hopefully within 1-2 weeks).

From the company's point of view, boistering the SP prior to a Funding round will aid the additional funding. But I'm hoping the funding will come from a JV or (much preferred) a 'Royalty' investment.

The biggest impact is a possible sell-off; but I suspect Alien will want to keep their fingers in the pie so-to-speak.

Note:
1) The Share has sustained a consistent 5 month uptrend - beating the last 4-month uptrend in 2017. In-between it has been a rollercoaster downward trend.
2) Last decent similar, consistent uptrend was back in jan'10 to jan'11:- which saw SP rise from around 20.0 to a mind-blowing 540.0+

I'd be absolutely ecstatic if the upcoming trend and good news represented a similar 'trend line' giving potential 5.4+ over next 8-12 months :-) :-)

Tech analysis indicates a reasonably good chance (70%+) of breaking into the 0.25-0.30 Band during week ending 24th.
Next 1-3 days looks like a regression down to 0.17-0.18 followed by rise to 0.2-0.21; then the spike. i.e. much anticipated Negative Saw-tooth as mentioned in previous threads.

This is also supported by the Bollinger Curves trending upwards over the last few months and RSI remaining in positive region.

Slight risk (30%) that the initial dip will 'compounded' by any neutral/negative news leading to a reversal of the RSI and Bollinger Curve trend and taking SP down towards 0.16-.

I would suggest that this fits in well with the upcoming Site visit and JV/Licensing Discussions mentioned in recent RNS.

Given this, I'm hoping that within the next 1-2 weeks an RNS will arise indicating either a firm JV or MOU (Memorandum of Understanding). If so then the SP is likely to SPike into the 0.35+; whether it stays above 0.3 for more than 3 weeks is largely down to any forthcoming news.

Personally, I'm looking for the Up-spike in next two weeks breaking into the upper-band; as I'm sure others are too.

IMHO

Thanks Kiwi. useful info and may prove helpful in future.

As an example:-

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/AU0000014342GBGBXASQ1.html DISPLAYS last 5 trades below:-

Time/date of execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
11:33:06 13-Jan-2020 0.03 GBX 10,391,877 2,597.97 Off-book AIMX
11:29:44 13-Jan-2020 0.03 GBX 3,564,942 926.88 Off-book AIMX
11:24:24 13-Jan-2020 0.03 GBX 1,000,000 250.00 Off-book AIMX
11:01:21 13-Jan-2020 0.03 GBX 3,000,000 750.00 Off-book AIMX
10:02:35 13-Jan-2020 0.03 GBX 7,712,370 1,928.09 Off-book AIMX

NEX Site
https://www.nexexchange.com/company-all-latest-trades?isin=AU0000014342&listingtypeid=PLSU
displays:-
Date & Time Volume Price
13/01/2020 11:21 13,522,557 0.026
13/01/2020 10:41 2,981,641 0.026
13/01/2020 10:21 5,526,734 0.026
13/01/2020 09:19 3,992,168 0.025
13/01/2020 09:19 431,743 0.025

Hi,

I've often noticed that my trades don't always appear either on the LSE trade page or the official London Stock Exchange page for EUZ etc. In most instances the trade appears on the NEX exchange - why is this?

If NEX is the official trading platform then why does LSE and london Exchange pages show some trades and not others?

All a bit confusing as I have to compare both trading lists to gain coverage.

Littlegiddings : I agree with you that in fact many other Users on here seek to ramp this company up just a little too much while attacking and deriding so-called 'newcomers' such as ourselves (they now who they are and should be ashamed of such actions).

I believe you and 'Bakky' have both seen what I have seen in that YGEN needs 'Diversification' in a crowded market-place which is filled with much bigger players.

The good news is that the market place is quite large and so there is room for 'expansion' of YGEN's original product line - but as pointed out by BAKKY its clearly nevcessazry for YGEN to expand their portfolio via acquisition and/or collaboration.

This is why I wanted to raise the topic of the likes of Sengenics' They are based in Asia and have already embedded themselves with a major US player (Lifecodexx). The good thing here is that Sengenics is still a private company and so more likely open to discussions with the likes of YGEN.

And, although Mr 'Florida' seems to think of us as "MM-appointed" 'guests' (whatever the hell he wants ot imply there), I do agree with him (reluctantly - bitter taste in mouth) that Q1-Q2 will be a clear 'stepping stone' for YGEN if/once the IONA-Illumina Platform proceeds.

But, all other investors (including 'Florida') need to understand that any Biotech company that tries to persist with a 'limited' portfolio (which is precisely what YGEN have at present) will only begin to be squeezed out. This is partucluarly important as they are now licensed by Illumina who will undoubtedly look at YGEN in the future when new licensing terms are to be agreed.

As 'Bakky' has stated, Lyn Rees has CLEARLY and UNAMBIGUOUSLY stated in the last report that YGEN will be seeking to diversify as well as capture market-share.

So for me I'm with Investors who want to see YGEN establish a clear business roadmap of diversification and acquisition.

Finally, Yes, the acquisition of Elucigene was probably one of the most pertinent and productive things the YGEN BOD could have done. I also agree that Elucigene will be one of the biggest money-spinners for YGEN.

P.S. I know how to do research for myself. Having petulant know-it-alls trying to imply that myself and others cannot research is quite frankly idiotic. Research also involves reviewing the likes of these comment boards and ignoring the 'Trolls', 'Bashers' and self-appointed gurus :- If you don't like my comments then you know the answer - filter me and good luck with your own research.

thanks Florida for that info.

I'll have to look into that :-)

I did see an article that infers that the IONA tech is based on Illumina Patents and hence I assume that is part of the previously concluded Legal case Yourgene encountered with Illumina. If the IPR belongs to Illumina then it remians to be seen whether Yourgene has exclusive rights on its marketability - as it looks to be used on the Illumina Platform.

Do you, or anyone else, have any info/links on the Patent/Licensing terms????

Note: It may be worth looking into Sengenics tech with Lifecodexx as they appear to be spreading their NIPT coverage over a wider 'net' in terms of Pathology markers etc.

i.e. NIPT is a 'generic' term and captures a wide area of pathology, not just restricted to Downs syndrome for example?

I was expecting a much better 'break' than this to be be honest too.

I really can't see why this SP isn't moving up?

The company is progressing their business plan excellently for an AIM company. They are certainly heading to achieve and even exceed the projected £17M and their 1-2 year market uptake is looking rather nice indeed.

I've done a bit more research and the NIPT market is somewhat awash with big players. The other 'minor' hurdle is that the rest of the Asian market is already being taken up by other players - see links below regarding for more info plus reference to Sengenics (it would be nice to gain other investors input on YourGene's statement about further 'Collaboration/acquisitions' to expande their Asian market?? - It seems that Sengenics is a fantastic 'partnership-cum- acquisition given their portfolio and presence?).

this first link is a REALLY good overview of the birth of NIPT (I hope it proves a worthy read)

https://www.asianscientist.com/2019/02/print/nipt-liquid-biopsy-grail-dennis-lo/

Look at Chapter 7 in this TOC link for th NIPT report that provides a list of the major players - Notable entires are Illumina (owns over 80% of patents etc -apparently) & Sequenom, as well as Lifecode..... But...... no mention of Yourgene?

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/noninvasive-prenatal-testing-market/toc

https://lifecodexx.com/sengenics-and-lifecodexx-partner-to-offer-nipt-in-southeast-asia/

https://www.sengenics.com/

Hope the above links provide a good reading and insight to possible market players.

Sengenics is currently a Private company but I've written to them to see if there is a possibility that they are open to potential 'private investment' funding and at what level..... hoping it proves fruitful. My view is they are in bed with "Lifecodexx" and covering a very large market; as well as having multiple other platforms/tech such as their KREX technology - see following link for Sengenics growth indicators:-

https://www.sengenics.com/release/sengenics-ramps-up-for-further-growth-announces-expansion-of-its-sales-and-business-development-teams-in-the-usa-europe-and-asia/

So..... What's the opinion of fellow investors on here regarding Sengenics and possible Yourgene collaboration?

Or any other input regarding research etc would be very welcome :-)

Dead Duck???

More like a PERFECT buy opportunity.

People have over-reacted and ran scared because one of the trials didn't perform as expected.

But the interest and uptake of NRF2 related topical bio-stimulators is becoming big business.

The most important thing is that the company' product is shown to provide near to mid-term benefit in certain cancer treatments; If this goes to Phase 3 trials and beyond, then that alone will make the current SP a distant memory.

If nothing else there is definitely potential here for a nice 'bounce-back'.

Or maybe the MMs are simply 'prepping' for a Q1'feb/Q4'18 scenario and hoping to catch the likes of those seeking to make history :-)

As I say; either an inversion down towards 0.0015; Sawtooth to 0.0019+; drop towards 0.0017/8 then maybe 80% gain in Q1.

Much better would be slight jump (3-5%+) tomorrow then inversion with deep inverse spike early jan and potential 2x+ late Q1-Q2.

If it hits the 2%+ high tomorrow drops then Jumps 60%-80% within next 1-2 week 'trading' time frame then that's the least favourable outcome.

As for saying goodbye to 0.002 etc..... that all depends on UFO RNS' - but none of us can predict that. Personally, I DON'T want it to leave this region; it's the area of greatest profit and future gearing as far as I'm concerned.

If only we had a 'Back door' mechanism like the recent BoE fiasco eh :-)

P.S. Anyone keeping an eye on the Gold price :-)

To clarify;

Buy in around 50% of your predicted investment amount;

If it spikes up around 60%-80% take quick profit. And that's it for 2-4 months.

However, having bought in around 50% of investment, if price does start dropping then begin Averaging down until bottom sawtooth forms and prices raises.

Wait for price to shoot up above current SP and "POSSIBLY" sell 50% of stock before SP drops to around current SP (i.e. you capture small gearing interest from upper sawtooth.

then after drop, buy in and look for a very nice large spike. Don't be greedy. The main spike will likely only last 1-2 days; it might wriggle a bit but best to take a 100-200% profit than risk losing it. Either way if the main spike doesn't appear the profit is still there from the Sawtooth. NOTE: The main after spike height will be based on the Depth and overall height difference between the two Sawtooth spikes - bigger the better.

Either way there is potential for nice short-term profit.

Good luck (if I'm wrong well that's life).