Member Info for Bordersman

Try AVN & VOG - both on a 2-3 year view For low risk income - PEW - pr the PEW zeros.

Well if it only just passes the going concern test what do you expect. Survival is by possible rise in £ against euro/ dilution ( who would invest?) or dilution by convertibles within alpha group. - its a straight 6month bet on the euro decline V £.

Its all in the currency swap. If we see 1.25 euros to £1 by Oct - then its not bust & might pass 2014 LTV bank tests. Otherwise the auditors / directors are brave to allow going concern accs.

run. unless you see a £ rising against the euro. As an investment it would be a very long time before any divy or trust and faith warrant investment support. your losses will be a fraction of mine.

Well there could be a bounce. However unless the £ rises the company needs £10m to add to its cash and the collateral at Barclays ( £50m property sales ? would do it if valuations stack up - do they?) It would leave no cash - and dividend a long way off. 1.25 euros per pound by Oct does it.........£10M dilution would do it ( well MC is £6M) I suppose I prefer a hit rather than an investment where my trust is now zero. Investors are entitled to expect good tax efficient Treasury management, not exposures which can destroy all equity value. History repeats itself and nobody outwith the Alpha stable is going to have any faith in management competence. I am a fool because the clues have all been there. For your sake Ihope I am wrong. Mel.Bordersman

Dont unless you see a sustained Euro fall against the £ I'm out.

now out after 3 years - ouch.

Blowster It will go up if Pound rockets against Euro. There is no value if the opposite happens. I would dearly like the sp colpase to be undone. That surely cant happen unless the euro plummets and the swap exposure at least halved. Bit unlikley. Mel

Kira Hope u are right...however if it does lose its Barclays swap collateral and its Bal sht cash - & still needs £10 to settle in Autumn .......then there is a certain inevitability abouit refinancing , pain and dilution. Most PI's will like me be using this as a bottom drawer divypayer. Cant undo the losses but most like me will be out of here looking for a divy elsewhere. You have to be brave to see opportunity here.

yes but was gearing up to take the hit and then the knife fell again Mel/ bordersman

Knigelk Fortunately I halved my holding a year ago - but this fall is still painful. Have a look at Jam Roll and TX2 posts on iii. Both are saying TU ...with the arguments to back up their observations. Granted the SWAP exposure could improve .....but it could also get a lot worse. Who would invest in a highly geared property play where they allow a Swap exposure to get out of hand. It is very very bad management. This has a really bad smell about it and selling property to pay for their mistake wont be easy . Run ! The company has to be refinanced to avoid risk of covenant breeches. Then who would invest given the incompetence? That cant be good for your wealth. Melrosian/Bordersman

Yes I have lost. Will I miss divy - Yes . Have I had these for a couple of years - yes. Would I like to know what the "more to it than meets the eye bit is" -Yes. Would I like someone to say Jam Roll's analysis is wrong because .......... In the meantime, despite Cyprus, it did appear that a solid trend of £ decline against the Euro had set in ...so it could get worse. I do know that there are seldom good outcomes when a regular divy payer has to cancel divy. Here it looks as if ALPA P may lose its BS cash, its Barc Colateral and still be short of £10M to settle in Oct. Divy - which is what I am here for - could be a very long way off. My agenda is trying to decide whether to cut an run or not. In the meantime I would welcome analysis of the SWAP situation from someone who understands them better than I do. Melrosian / Bordersman

They are currently 31.5m out of the money on the swap. the issue is the currency swap not so much the leverage but the leverage exagerates the problem. it matures in october this year and the ex rate has gone badly against them alph needs to pay barclays 163m euros which at en Euro/£ ex rate of 1.14 is 143m barclays pays alph 109m pounds that is a 34m shortfall which is not covered by collateral with barclays and the cash on the BS they are short about 17m options are sell assets - unlikely, raise finance or agree a deal with barclays may be knock on implications for the debt ratios if they sell asssets if they hadnt taken out the silly currency hedge for huge amounts right at the level where sterling has never been stronger then this would be fine doesnt look good - they will need to explain soon what they are going to do about it luckily this is main market 7.5m on deposit with Barclays as collateral 8.4m cash on the BS 5m nimes property (assume discount from6.7 in accts to reflect feesetc) All that totals 20.5 Still leaves them 10m short (half of reserves) Mel/ Mordersman This is not my research - it is attributable to jam Role on 3iii. - makes sense to me. Conclusion - The colateral at Barc , Bal sht cash and £10M has to be found unless the swap exposure improves. They can sell property in a hurry, they can seek new capital ( with market cap as it is - painful dilution is a solution.....as are dilutory convertible loans from elsewhare in the Alpha stable.

Copied from TX2 post on iii Nobody should kid themselves that there is value here and buy more shares.It is a total worthless dog,check out this managers other funds.They have a truly dire record,this is not their only investment company in deep trouble......and they have been using significant funds from one of their trusts in high risk loans to keep this and another fund afloat.

I would be careful - after using the collateral at barclays and the cash in BS - they are still around £12M short in covering current swap losses which remain ( or have grown) by Oct. There are 2 unpleasantaries which could flow - 1 bail out by Convertibles which sweep away equity 2. Asset sales in a hurry - & that too swipes away equity 3. Going private - well that is g**nad gripping stuff Most PI's here were here for stonking divy - well I am a Dutchman if there is any divy in the next 18 months. .........so not sure where upward buying pressure would come from. .........breech of LTV covenants next year not unlikely. .........Therefore the co has to do something pretty serious and quick - and dilution somehow has to be probable. .........Alpha is now one for the brave,