Member Info for Bordersman

.........on the other hand Glencore must have exited stage left for a reason........and the cash flow at end 2018
was obviously near terminal. ENEO certainly helps.

If VOG can get a powerful JV partner,, explore without going bust and a market for the gas,
then you are right.........VOG would have the ball back because Matanda really looks as if it is Huge. Kevin's cartwheels again?

Any thoughts on the insurance claim ? Uncharitable it may be but my initial reaction was more fluff.

Mel

Happy New Year Nostromo

.................or .........did you call me Honey?

mmm? Hope you are right.

Mel in ever the optimist mode

According to Wikipedia Ratcliffe is worth £9B

I presume VOG has the legacy of all the exploration/investigation by Glencore.

Wow again
Mel

Gosh

Matanda resources of Gross Prospective Mean GIIP are estimated at 1303bcf of gas contained in 23 prospects and leads.
If VOG could plug that into LNG for export ..(.maybe billionaire Jim Ratcliffe of INEOS might be interested?.......I might be less of a sceptic ....... but there again if drill costs are always double the expected............

Mel in wow mode for once.

PS Think I know why KYC said he was in till 2023

Jonesy

1P and 2 P ( internal estimates) reserves not quite the same!

Mel

I have been paying a lot less attention to VOG since progressively reducing exposure last year. so perhaps have missed bits.

nevertheless I thought VOG had 2 producing wells and another with a stuck unrecovered drill bit. While it may be an uncharitable notion, could there be other reasons 108 is not a producing well? If reserves are being proven by pressure and production levels, shareholders can not really know the potential of 108, and the VOG record on whole truth is not great. On the other hand the management may know its real potential and is ready to be uncorked
when it can sell it and have production facility adequate to meet higher sales levels. It would be reasonable for the directors to put this information in the public domain.

It is obvious that if VOG can sell lots more gas ( and catch up with its spreadsheet predictions ) - market capitalisation could rocket. In the meantime investors can only guess whether the 108 was a failed black hole or whether it is huge as was implied during the drilling process.

Mel in lost a packet so far mode..

Does V have enough gas ( 10 yrs) to supply Dibambe ? If I was in conversion mode I rather think I would want 10 yrs assured gas first.

On the other hand I understand D has World bank finance and one of the conditions is a ( small) reduction in finance cost if there is converson to gas.

Mel

Smokey

Not the baw but the bawbees !

Mel

Ah Annual clear out time.

To Vog or not to Vog?

Vog should be a goer from here if it could sell a lot more gas. It is however difficult to forget

1. that it has essentially been operating with one ( + a near enough failed well without telling us) over the last few years
2. the huge sucess in Kazakstan and sale plan for WM
3. Drilling 2 wells which cost twice as much as shareholders were told and really only produced 1 well( twice) and some real unanswred questions about the drilling company.
4. Gensets dont seem to have lit up the heather
5. Our JV pardner ain't no sprightly teenager and has offspring who just want some cash sometime.
6. The obvious emerging bull market glimmering on the horizon
7. Production limits and the itsy bitsy small question of gearing to be refinanced one day.

Despite all that, bought some yesterday, just in case. You never know.

Mel in should know better happy mode

I have been having one of my thinks about VOG. I have lost a fair bit on VOG . I tend to invest and wait and the main reason I headed for the hills was because VOG now seems to be overgeared and without ENEO, cash flow negative. Sage is right. One day there should be a lot of gas sold. The questions ......how soon and whether the banks will allow VOG to be geared up with negative cash flow. ....

The big question is the proven gas reserves . VOG has oddly provided very little detail on the viability of 108 ( with its stuck drill. ). That there is a pile of gas at 108 seems believeable but the lack of detail is discouraging , especially since , for years we were made to believe that VOG had 2 viable wells - but actually one was failing.

So - does VOG have 3 viable wells when the suck bit is unstuck and how does the investor value the self certified gas reserves? VOG is in a tight spot cash wise ...but clarity on the viability of 108 and why 109 was the justifcation for the recent dilution would help me / others and probably the VOG big picture masterplan. .
Is VOG good value now? Don't know but with ENEO cash flow - quite possibly. There is mist about a series of VOG questions and I don't yet have the courage to get back in - but may if ENEO cash flow arrives. Will it?

Mel

3 card

Best is "Bridge to profirs"

Mel

Methinks will rise early on the morn - just to make sure the dawn is OK.

Mel

Malbrun

Ah ...but but when Gazprom buys WM for £100M and Olga hands our well back ?

My monacle would .........

Mel

3 Card
They would say cost control is difficult wouldnt they? We were given estimated cost . The nearly obvious outcome at the outset would be 2 slices of dilution - share issue and shares to Savannah. The placing kept the company afloat ... but the second unexpected ( by me) masks the degree by which costs over ran.

My notes show that I had at the back of my mind the broad notion that it would take 1 year - possibly 2 before gas take up at new volume gas to power generators. With heads of agreement(s) in place that is bridgeable........and then VOG would be cash positive. The drill dragged on for months beyond my expectations .....and still not a slither , ripple sniff or brush of a tail on actual supply contracts ( dangled a lot).

I dont believe that costs could not have been controlled and while it is obvious that proving up gas reserves helps prove supply ability........running out of cash is not on. Whatever the downside they should have conserved cash or sought an additional JV partner.

Excessive dilution and a plan which ensures running out of cash is highly likely is definitely not in the interests of equity holders.

Milk is however spilt and there is a pattern . The group can and should seek assurances that the company should conserve cash until there is an actual large supply contract and bridging finance to enable a Vog spend.

Mel ( Taken my losses on the chin mode)

MT
Convenient answer. Is it not correct that there has been lowered demand for prospective drilling in the last 6 years.?
.........putting Vog in a stronger position.?

So the drill company has no incentive to complete within a timescale and within a budget. Slower the better from their standpoint.

Mel

Enshried in the Companies Acts is the need for directors to act in the interests of shareholders.<br /><br />In a case like this it is difficult to show that it is not the case so far. The Fox Davis dilution speaks for itself and lack of cap on latest drill cost takes VOG possibly to the point that Vog might not be a going concern, despite its apparent new proven reserves. A competent Finance Director could have set finite limits on cost and applied brakes on the drill costs. The Excessive drill cost may, or may not eventually prove to be in the shareholders interests. I think it unlikely but am listening.<br /><br />One two or three volume contracts to power gas powered electricity generation would rocket the SP but considerable capex would be needed to put it all in place. The company has appeared to hint that it is all just over the horizon - but it has not got the finance or self generated cash flow to get there , without material new finance or a JV partner financing the next phases. <br /><br />I don't envy the directors. I do not doubt they are trying - BUT if there is a question of them going for volume rather than earnings then Kevin's conflict of interest looms large. I have heard him fend off questions about this at 2 agm's . If the company is to gain equity investor confidence - then I believe that he wont be able to do it without addressing that issue head on and coming up with a way to align his interests fully with equity holders.<br /><br />Mel<br /><br />

Pshepp

Did you get to know anything about the stuck drill or the value of what is in the hole , whether stuck drill is smokescreen for collapsed well and whether 109 talk is because 108 is as bad as 106 . It took a very long time to learn that 106 wasn't tickety boo?

Mel

Best wishes MT. Do your best.
Mel

3cardbrag

Give blood play rugby. The joke might be reversed next October in japan?

Mel ( in its coming home to Murrayfield mode)

PS Well done England and good luck in the semis.