Member Info for Bordersman

The AR to be received within 5 weeks should give us some more clues.

Of course the Board ought to be giving us a handle on future likely profits

in the AR. You never know.

Mel

LTI

All true but if you project that the current order book should be 90% delivered within the next 2 years we should be able to have a broad stab at the profitability range headed Cyan's way . It is the key to getting a handle on Cyan's worth.

Have a go.

Mel ( in delegating mode )

LTI

You have been watching Cyan for a decade. I have been busy with other pots on the boil outwith AiM and the FTSE

so although I have on occasions tried to get a handle on the coming income stream and finger in wind trying to work back after the direct and indirect cost to project future profitability...... I really havent got near to anything approachng future net profitability. HAVE YOU ? or have you any idea about the gross T/O likely to arive in the next 2 years?

Mel ( in evauation mode)

Of course attending Harvard fpr an MBA ?.......all should note that MBA stands for Master of B***** All

Mel ( former Bus school lecturer)

PS why on earth am I invested in Cyan?

ITT

IF the future has turnover growing by geometric progression ( You can broadly calculate a value on that)

You can also place a value on B/F tax losses created by our ( shareholders) cash contributions over the years.

10.44 brings the hanging tree at Jedburgh to mind.

Mel ( ridiculing 10.44 mode)

ITT

"Tomorrow and tommorrow and tommmorow,

creeps in this pety pace from day to day

and all our yesterdays have lighted fools ........."

WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE

put another way - The AR hoving into view

may allow us to peer through the mist.

Mel ( in misty mode )

HG True.

Meanwhile am up a path in garden.

Mel

Thanks LTI. More fancy tickling. .......which makes 10.whatsit look even worse.

Mel ( All tickled mode )

Dear Harley

I sold out of vog 95% when the drill obvioulsy failed. ( Ouch )

As to Cyan - have lost a bit in the past and since been out/circumspect. However

decided to pitch in at New Year . I like the story/ product and since my grandfather

was Accountant general in Amritzah in Raj times was brought up on positive stories about India.

( although there is a letter in the family from the Army telling my grandpa to get the heckk out in

riot times - he did - just)

I met an indian student in woods near Dalhouse castle. He was of the indian "Trains Family".

He waxed lyrical about the contribution Dalhousie made in building a huge railway network

doing more to make India into a workable economy than anyone else.

Anyway I do stand to lose a bit now if it all goes south but that would help with inheritance tax bill.

Cyan's Omnimesh / smart metering could make a huge contribiution to saving india energy costs .

So part of thereason I am here is rather stupid sentiment.

Dont worry Harley but thanks for your sentiment.

Mel ( in small brain mode )

But there is no rush to buy at current SP. Nellie probably knows why but we do not.

Certainly a chunky EY shareholding would make subsequent bid for Cyan more difficult if not impossible as Cyan relies on EY to install.

Mel ( in truncated mode)

Tony

I Govt must be scrutinizing every move for their new multi millions smart metering. Be daft not to. It needs to be sure services are underwritten by solid capital. Problem may be that Cyan is tiny & maybe does not have the balance sheet to make I gov sure its service provision is built on solid enough base. Hope I am wrong. However if as LTI sugests CY buys a

chunky slice of Cyan shares (10.44 p) then that could be a form of underwriting which might satisfy IG.

CY is not going to lend then let CY collapse if future orders mean it overreaches.

Mel ( in conjecture mode)

If AN other Co was planning a bid.......it would wait until there was an actual offer from EY.

Fingers crossed no offer appears and the mist is just playing for time. AR may reveal the reason for the mist and Nellie.

Mel

Due dilligence on a tiny co does not take this long. With any luck the notion of a possible offer at 10.4p is fadimg away.

With more luck clear growing profits are hoving in justaccross the near horizon

Mel

Well if Cyan can forecast £4m sustainable profits pa then MC shoul be about £60m if a PE of 15 is assumed.

If the probability is for future growth in material measure......then more.

Mel (maybe all cusped up)

7 weeks? They cannot hide sitrep then.

Mel

On the cusp of crossover to profits? Maybe we should start being nice to Nellie?

I like a good cusp.

Mel

£180M order book doesnt suggest trouble. SP is daft.

Mel

On the other hand if the probable offer and probable acceptance is all just a smokescreen until JC gets ducks in a row

it could work out well. That being the case we have a couple of months before we find out more of Turnover P?L and order book progress. My hope is that profits hove into view and the SP adjusts to reflect that. That is my optimistic view.

On the other hand the stitch up may be real

Mel

Annual report will be a fun read

Mel

I have no more knowledge than anyone else. However I havent come across a "possible bid "

at a possible price with variants about how a proper bid might appear. I am as perplexed about

the price/share indicated as it appears to materially underprice the future earnings per share .

I say appears to. Theoretically an SP is the discounted value of future revenue streams.

Usually when a growing company crosses over from losses to profits you can astsrt to take a view on future income streams

......certainly Cyan seems to be on the cusp of that cross over with a large order book and the prospect of matearially larger

future income streams. It could be that Cyan becomes a bit of a darling once the mist clears on those prospects. Cronin hasnt been shy about talking up propects.

The fly in the ointment could be that this large new indian business is indian nad new. It coulkd be indian authorities are taking a nationalistic view and ensuring not too much profit from the smart metering roll ot ends up in foregn hands. This may be why EY is dithering and possibly why Cronin is taking frigh and recommending what appears to be a materially undercooked bid. Just conjecture.

Meanwhile the SP is at laughable level and with luck EY walks and Cyan progresses with its order book It would be good to think Cyan can garner big slices of the smartmetering indian market and income - providing a model for other countries ... and that Cyan is set fro the big time.

Could be a flawed argument

Mel