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So the value of the B/F tax losses amount to under half the value of the proposed possible offer amount.

Anyone who accepts is doing so after manoevering into a dishonest position or is a candidate for a brain transplant.

Fishy stuff.

Mel

LTI

Good projected income est. Of course the cost of delivery or anticipated delivery is unknown.

Given that it is India - delay in delivery could perhaps have been anticipated.

Notwithstanding delays any novice evaluation of the coming income stream surely puts the offer in the materially undervalued

box. There are a number of ways Cyan can refinance if there is a cash dip. If there is material bad news our directors have a duty to tell shareholders .

In the absence of up to date P/L & BS the shareholders are being let down . Cyan is worth more.

Mel

It is just possible that JC knows the bid that isnt a bid would be soundly rejected by sane shareholders.

Could he be playing for the time neded to show better cards?

Mel

In the event of an offer the bord can recommend aceptance - but the shareholders have to accept. Why would they?

LTI your contributions are invaluable and although there is a fishy smell about this is far from a forgone conclusion.

Why would shareholders accept a paltry offer . It makes no sense.

I have a shrewd suspicion that Cyan can not get to the big time without a bigger balance sheet. Oddly I would not mind another dilution to boost Cyan's BS.

Has anyone any idea when the quarterly update is due?

Mel

With any luck the bidder wont bid or extend, Cyan projects ongoing sustainable £5m PAT , the market rates the profits multiplier at 15, the market cap approaches £75M during 2026 and Cyan opt for a new listing in india .

.....then I woke up

With an order book of £157M ( with more to come )

It would be odd not to assume that Cyan could achieve £4-5 M profits pa

With a PE of 12 that would give Market Cap of £48M - £60M

I am obviously missing something as the possible offer seems materially undercooked .

The board promised quarterly updates and right now Shareholders deserve up to date information.

Mel

Or put another way - take up Vodoo and get some pins !

I suggest you dont sell below the current possible offer. It is possible a better bid comes out of the woodwork or indeed shareholders vote the bid down. If Cyan has enough dosh it is obvious that sales, and I assume profits, could grow by geometric progression if shareholders are patient.

lmagine if prospective near term profits ( b/f losses ensure no near term tax) can reach £3m pa. At a PE of 15 that would give a market cap of £45M. We dont have enough info to do projections but the quat=rterly reporting should have got us closer.

The Board can obviously project the P/L - if they can not see £3m PAT in the next couple of years then maybe the possible offer is the best we canhope for. Half the planet could use the Cyanconode genius unless there is a better configuration out there.

Mel

Sand

in this smoke and mirrors - there seems to be a disconect between the illustrations in the interim report and the SP. It is odd and clearly the SP isnt going to react until all can see actual geometric progression in T/O and Profits. We should be able to forecast near term profitability. I can not yet do it.

Mel

Thanks Tony and Gizmo

I have been trying to put my thinking cap on on the who why whynows. Almost always decisions are driven by self interest.

Companies dont normally act to reduce value. So I am perplexed by this indication of a potential bid. I havent got the answers

to the whys and whynows. In big picture terms I dont see why the market has brought about a 60% reduction on MC just as Cyan is about to process a huge order book.......and is just getting started. If this had been listed in US the sp would have popped. ( Us liisting may be great idea?) I am sure I am not the only perplexed one.

Mel

At the back of my mind is how difficult it was for Bill Gammel's Cairn and VOD to exit india.

Mel

Hi LTI

Simply PAT after Breakeven. In Cyan's case it should not be difficult to project LAT then PAT over the next 3 years.

Further wins might have similar breakeven charts?

Maybe you can do the projections with asumptions?

Mel

I have a small NESF holding and am sitting on 27% loss ( excl div) .

I am good at being wrong and remember being in Burray Orkney loking at the Mini windfarm experimantal scheme.

I was pretty sure it would never catch on. Here we are there are not a few worldwide.

The next part of the story has to be energy storeage. Unuseable energy from windfarms ( 0015 - 0600 hrs) can be used to

convert water into Hydrogen and Oxygen. Guess what there is a pilot scheme in Orkney. It seems likely to catch on.

So 27% losses. My reading is that while further falls and a divy cut are possible ... neither would be material.

Normally 16% divy is time to run. In the NESF case I am going to double my holding.

Mel

Tonyj

Thanks for that but I am still baffled by JC's price indication........the only thing I can think of is that it may herald a new finance raising.

With a growing BS JC may have to go down that route. ?

Mel

LTI

£157 M order book is all very well but first Cyan has had tp spend building backup service spport. With halved gross margins that has ( and will) push profits further down the line . If Cyan garners more large orders elsewhere then the backup support advance spend grows. Therefore a larger Balance sheet and from where I sit Cyan does nor have the ready finance to deal with advance services support spend. I certainly dont hav ethe numbers but my small brain suggests that every growing co needs a bigger BS and new finance.... ( dilution although it has dealt with Goa by borrowing)

If Cyan is really successful it will get to a crossover point after which cash generated can finance some growth but not massive growth in its target markets

It is a long winded way of saying that JC's price advice intervention may herald new dilutive capital raise. Hope I am wrong.

Mel

It is some time since I thought much about Cyan. with Order book of £157M (interims in Sep 2025) and a target market of gazillions then with small brain thatwould seem to point to Large PAT after the support spend. Goa is relatively small so the support spend for much further delivered orders is large indeed. A much bigger balance sheet would be needed . I assume that will need a lotmore diluting capital raising. It seems premature applies to a lot more than this pretendy T/O approach . Someone tell me why my thinking is flawed

Anyone - when is the quarterly update likely to appear. ( or is the board trying to avoid some more bad news?)

Of course perhaps we should ask Finn Russell if he is available

Mel

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