Member Info for Bordersman

I hope most of mankind soon reads Animal Farm , 1984 and Brave New World.
I hope someone tells Putin that nobody on the planet wants to see dead russian or ukrainian soldiers or civilians or starving in the 3rd world.

I am trying to work out what the rest of Capricorn is worth or should be worth on the market. Havent got there yet .

Maestro
Invading a secular country Iraq with a fascist administration was almost bloodless. Problem leaving a vacuum post battle which turned the chance of a succesful democracy into ISIS Suni teritory. Done right it was a good idea. Israel is a functioning democracy is it not? Afghanistan font of 9/11 - seemed to have some merit if allies had stuck to the task for another 25 Years.
Yemen - well it is a proxi war between wonderful Saudi and super duper Iran.
Putin is mudering civilians in an adjacent country . As far as I can see Ukraine is a functioning democracy which had goodwill towards russia, despite stalin's 4M farmers muder program.
War crimes aplenty !

Astonishing post. It suggests you are actually backing Vladimir ?

Bonnie banks of Loch Lomond - so much nicer and singable than the Corries dreary song

The problem for large shareholers is that big purchases or sales will move sp against the buyer/seller.. The issue for them is - do they want to invest in a hydrocarbons exploration and production company. If they do Capricorn with zero gearing and a pile of cash is in an extraordinarily good position to pick up assets / opportunities cheaply........or indeed possibly change its entire focus as an energy company.
Do I want to be invested in a hydrocarbons company. Having a good think about that.

So the announced future tender offer will probably be ( revised?) buyback price + 5-10% premium. Capricorn is in control of SP and any hubris
Is it in the interests of the directors for there to be a low take up of the tender offer? Hope not but low take up would give directors more cash power and ability to really make something of Capricorn .

Meanwhile;
*ocks XV 32 England XV 22
Mel

£3.03 - bigbas2all
£2.88 - Nobbyd
£2.85 - BH .... Hope
£2.70 - Emerald
£2.54 - Johnnytaffia
£2.45 - EM202020
£2.40 - StanleyPro
£2.38 - wokinpark
£2.15 Bordersman

Watched pot never boils.

Mel ( watching)

Baysil
If the tender offer is low it may mean low take up. ...and more cash in company..perhaps a bit of leverage and bigger scale. ( Entry into more attractive sector eg CO2 storeage or wind energy storage - hydrogen - even hydro???? )
CNE is on manoevres with big cash. If someone gives me cash I then have to invest it. I can see CNE with a PER of 10 + ...15 in the sexier sectors . 5 yr inveestment could/should be a multibagger.
Unfortunately Putin is also on manoevres so short term cash and fence sitting makes a great deal of sense.
Mel

Hope you are right.
Mel ( in finger in wind mode )

Methinks you have to picture the sitrep post tender offer. The directors do and they wont want a collapsing sp then. They will be trying to do what Cairn has been so good at doing before. We and the market cannot see how well they will do yet. Meanwhile the speed of the Indian Civil Service. ...and of course the blues retaining Calcutta Cup.

Mel ( in Festina Lente mode )

I think too much hubris is unwarranted. The Directors and the ongoing shareholders will not want to manage a company which has volunteered to be attractive to shorters ( In this unloved market sector) , even with retained cash for the ongoing shares buyback plan. . The tender offer price will ensure that the SP falls below that price. ( Or nobody would offer their shares) I cannot see the tender price going much above £2. 25 but would be glad to be wrong. First however we watch and wait for the GOI.
Mel

It makes sense to support the sp for a period post tender offer - in an unloved investment segment - while looking for bargain basement priced oportunities to perhaps make supernormal returns. When the returns are returned to shareholders - the fewer the shareholders the higher the returns.

I think the post "spike"( ?) post tender offer invesment oportunity has improved.

The really disappointing no news is re the GOI payment date.

Mel

If you are interested in just cash? Sell?

Schatzy An odd conclusion

Mel

Well Emerald - here is why. The world and his dog knows about this situation probably don't want to be stuck with CNE ex div and we all know what happens on the ex SP.Div date.

I cant tell how the SP will behave bewteen now and ex div date .. but did get stung in a similar situation when I thoght I was being clever after gearing up a bit with CFD. Ouch when shares were suspended for a week. .

I am going to take a modest profit soon and will probably buy a few again for bottom drawer post ex div date.........( if they look cheap) when I can form a view on future profitability. Reason> CEO someone I really respect.

Mel

Well the torygraph suggested it, Baillie Gifford inv trusts seemed to be buying bucketloads last yr, NAV -attractive , no love for china right now, Prosus trading growing like topsy and MC less than its Tencent ( 28% OF) share ownership. The value is there but nobody is going to take it over, divy is rubbish. Some predictors really bearish. Nap/Prosus ownership difficult to fathom. I am not a buyer until I understand. Wish someone could explain - as the torygraph is not normal stupid and sp seems to undervalue underlying 10 cent holding and pay no heed to trading activities ( which should be 4-5 100 billion??) BG not normally stupid either.
What??

Mel ( in Winnie the Pooh mode)

Emerald

I do . Bet it is after We *ocks have won the Calcutta Cup again.
They have slow, very slow and stop modes in ICS

Mel ( In 6 Ntns *ock mode )

easyp

Festina Lente !

Mel ( in slowly catchhe monkey mode )
PS dont be too greedy or you will fall into mantrap

I have paid little attention to my Cairn Holding until IG tax refund. Nearly ditched it. Do I want it fro long term. Cash rich post special divy it will be in an enviable position in an unloved sector.
With an eye on its opportunities and a likely market cap well below its NAV , a post divy sp collapse - and the run up to ex divy date are likely to present opportunities to sell and buy back.
Mel ( Unlike me mode)