Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
£3.03 - bigbas2all
£2.88 - Nobbyd
£2.85 - BH .... Hope
£2.70 - Emerald
£2.54 - Johnnytaffia
£2.45 - EM202020
£2.40 - StanleyPro
£2.38 - wokinpark
£2.15 Bordersman
Watched pot never boils.
Mel ( watching)
Baysil
If the tender offer is low it may mean low take up. ...and more cash in company..perhaps a bit of leverage and bigger scale. ( Entry into more attractive sector eg CO2 storeage or wind energy storage - hydrogen - even hydro???? )
CNE is on manoevres with big cash. If someone gives me cash I then have to invest it. I can see CNE with a PER of 10 + ...15 in the sexier sectors . 5 yr inveestment could/should be a multibagger.
Unfortunately Putin is also on manoevres so short term cash and fence sitting makes a great deal of sense.
Mel
Hope you are right.
Mel ( in finger in wind mode )
Methinks you have to picture the sitrep post tender offer. The directors do and they wont want a collapsing sp then. They will be trying to do what Cairn has been so good at doing before. We and the market cannot see how well they will do yet. Meanwhile the speed of the Indian Civil Service. ...and of course the blues retaining Calcutta Cup.
Mel ( in Festina Lente mode )
I think too much hubris is unwarranted. The Directors and the ongoing shareholders will not want to manage a company which has volunteered to be attractive to shorters ( In this unloved market sector) , even with retained cash for the ongoing shares buyback plan. . The tender offer price will ensure that the SP falls below that price. ( Or nobody would offer their shares) I cannot see the tender price going much above £2. 25 but would be glad to be wrong. First however we watch and wait for the GOI.
Mel
It makes sense to support the sp for a period post tender offer - in an unloved investment segment - while looking for bargain basement priced oportunities to perhaps make supernormal returns. When the returns are returned to shareholders - the fewer the shareholders the higher the returns.
I think the post "spike"( ?) post tender offer invesment oportunity has improved.
The really disappointing no news is re the GOI payment date.
Mel
If you are interested in just cash? Sell?
Schatzy An odd conclusion
Mel
Well Emerald - here is why. The world and his dog knows about this situation probably don't want to be stuck with CNE ex div and we all know what happens on the ex SP.Div date.
I cant tell how the SP will behave bewteen now and ex div date .. but did get stung in a similar situation when I thoght I was being clever after gearing up a bit with CFD. Ouch when shares were suspended for a week. .
I am going to take a modest profit soon and will probably buy a few again for bottom drawer post ex div date.........( if they look cheap) when I can form a view on future profitability. Reason> CEO someone I really respect.
Mel
Well the torygraph suggested it, Baillie Gifford inv trusts seemed to be buying bucketloads last yr, NAV -attractive , no love for china right now, Prosus trading growing like topsy and MC less than its Tencent ( 28% OF) share ownership. The value is there but nobody is going to take it over, divy is rubbish. Some predictors really bearish. Nap/Prosus ownership difficult to fathom. I am not a buyer until I understand. Wish someone could explain - as the torygraph is not normal stupid and sp seems to undervalue underlying 10 cent holding and pay no heed to trading activities ( which should be 4-5 100 billion??) BG not normally stupid either.
What??
Mel ( in Winnie the Pooh mode)
Emerald
I do . Bet it is after We *ocks have won the Calcutta Cup again.
They have slow, very slow and stop modes in ICS
Mel ( In 6 Ntns *ock mode )
easyp
Festina Lente !
Mel ( in slowly catchhe monkey mode )
PS dont be too greedy or you will fall into mantrap
I have paid little attention to my Cairn Holding until IG tax refund. Nearly ditched it. Do I want it fro long term. Cash rich post special divy it will be in an enviable position in an unloved sector.
With an eye on its opportunities and a likely market cap well below its NAV , a post divy sp collapse - and the run up to ex divy date are likely to present opportunities to sell and buy back.
Mel ( Unlike me mode)
Nope. School 3rds XV. and 2cnd XV Melrose. Then he was easy to knock over. Bill was no star until, after glandular fever, he joined Heriots FP , then you could only tackle him if he slowed down...which he seldom did.
Mel ( In old history mode)
Banbury. I am an expert at being wrong. Hope I am wrong.
On the other hand let us speculate that the markets take a dive in the next 6 months.
Waiting for Divi in CNE should be a very good place to be.......and if the markets rise - still a good place to be. Either way CNE should be in a good place to pick up cheap earning assets.
Can anyone tell me why the change of name ??
Mel ( in great wisdom mode )
Maisy we both know that we were led to believe last drills would be capped at £42M cost and the £75M cost - not wholly successful ( and continuing lack of clarity as to results/added reserves ) meant VOG nearly was no more. Ouch!
Mel
Hi Maisydaisy.
Capricorn Energy ( Formerly Cairn ) $1Billion from Indian Govt tax refund imminent.
Mkt Cap not far from total expected cash. ( Guess is rest value £.6M -.8M ) Difficult to know how to value non cash earning and new egyptian assets until co comes up with a plan.
Cam govt is v. unenthusiastic about exporting energy assets. Gas exports by VOG = access to reliable customers . Wont happen soon.
Mel ( In not in Vog mode)
PS only posting as should be doing tax return
I gave up on VOG some time ago. I did not learn from Foxdilution. However some may want to note that VOG is cash poor, Its past drilling cost control/success rate is shocking , it is still landlocked and it is path to future gas sales is unclear/ speculative . Could a spike once again preceed a cash raise. Whatever else is true - be wary.
Mel
Good luck with yr optimism. The only way I can see rising sp is when it is possible to export gas.
I do not see that coming.
Mel