Member Info for Bordersman

But Jed "WM will be the making of VOG" Ho Ho.

Mel

Thanks Colour. Got a giggle from your post.
Melrosian

But Kev told us the VOG model would roll out in all africa.

mel in covid boredom mode.

The best new news is that someone is carrying out due diligence on WM.
"The making of VOG " is not WM . Ho Ho.
Could VOG have a higher Market Cap? Maybe if VOG can export gas. ...and maybe if WM turns into cash. Do I have the courage to once again invest in VOG. After 2 secs the answer is no. I dont fancy the risks in those "virtual pipelines".

I have lost a fair amount on VOG but have been out for a good while. I did find the chatrooms quite entertaining and was a believer. I do have to apollogise to those wiser than me.
The spreadsheets and volume sales assurances did seem to point to a time when exploration would be much financed by cash flow. Theoretically that is still the case but I can not see it ever happening. If Cameroon decided it should sell into the International oil and gas markets.... that might one day ensure a route to reliable cash flows.
However that and the mooted power station conversions ........do I believe. No.
Mel

3 card
Just been to Dublin to checkout its meaning.

Mel

Happy New Year all.
I have more or less written off Cyan . It is possible that there will be a time when Cyan SP climbs but there is no evidence that Cyan will generate cash surpluses in the near term. Until then more dilution is inevitable . Hope I am wrong.
mel

Malbrun

If the proposed 150 MW plant is to work then there has to be enough liquidity in the system for the consumers to pay. It is not clear whether that can be assured.
It is much easier to be clear that VOG can not fund its ambitious gas exploration plan without new funds or a big brother JV partner with deep pockets. JV Partners dilute income.

Mel

Naks

Before VOG supplies any company with much gas, is there not a capex spend need to expand the gas processing capability and of course piping gas to any new plant?

Until such time as VOG is generating enough cash to self fund its expansion , exploration plans and buying out Kevin's interests, I don't doubt that ord shareholders will see yet more dilution.
Melrosian

MT

There is an old maxim. It is often better to sell 3 apples at a 1p profit per apple than 1 apple at 2 p profit.

True too that means you can hardball big customers which do not pay.

mel ( in Wiliam Tell mode)

Am I missing something? If VOG could sell some gas in the international markets - then there could be another cash flow source. Vog surely can not get to gas supply to new/ or converted power supply plant(s) without material capex.While gas export cannot be a next week project, it was snuck in there as a future possibility in the previous regime narrative. It would be good if Kennedy if gas exports are or will never be part of the strategic plan Rolling our over africa? Aye right? . any review of the capex to get there might just deter? Mel ( in curious /realistic mode)

My Cyan investment has futtered/ diluted to the point that it has lost a few thousand. In a portfolio that happens.

I havent given up hope but I find myself reliant on the company advice that no more dilution in the near term and that there is cash flow in the order book.

If the order book really does ramp up then the balance sheet would grow and Cyan would need more finance to finance the debtors and WIP over and above the ongoing and probably rising R&D.

So further dilution seems inevitable but the potential for the SP to reflect future rocketing profitability could .........?.. or not.

Dont know

Mel

Showme the money

I have been in Vog for a while but took the view that the overspend on driiling/ the stuck drill bit and the loss of half the ENEO sales/ and need for 2 dilutions was not going to lead to large sales contracts and the net surplus cash generation to set VOG on a growth path.

I too tend to have faith in directors encouraging growth and progression. nevertheless I no longer believe that
big power contracts are in the offing and it is difficult to see which large oil entity would want to buy into onshore cameroon gas.

I still have some Vog but have parked my losses and am in safer pastures. I have found posters on Vog more entertaining than other boards.

mel ( in exited mode)


My hope is that I am wrong for .those sticking with the VOG story

2017 : $23.5 million revenue (2016: $32.8 million)

2019? $24 m

Mel

Maisy daisy
you are braver than me.
Mel

...and the $11.6M indian order ( spread over what period?)
Mel

One day the shareholders will see the results of the $110 order book we learned of in Sept/.

I have no doubt the company will need to fundraise to finance an expanding balance sheet and that at some point there will be more hits on the patient. However Cyan is a " breakeven chart " and the crossover point to profits is surely closer than it was. Geometric progression could follow Another couple of years?

Mel

Paranoia

Just as US gas and European gas values do not always go in tandem, VOG's interest is in landlocked Cameroon.gas ( and a bit in Matanda in shallow water). VOG's gas valuation is in my view constrained by the market for landlocked gas in Cameroon and the fact that Kribi gas is being sold to ENEO at lower price. The material uplift in VOG market Cap is only likely to happen when the market is clear where VOG is actually likely to sell the gas.

Mel

Paranoia

Why would there be a massive reevaluation? The next results will be poor ... Matanda is a gleam in the eye like
Kazakstan ( or Olga's?) and WM. Eyeglimmers have not so far been much use so far except to help shareholders lose.
The unconstrained "demand" is not matched by the ability to pay and is constrained. The gearing will be difficult to dismantle without dilution and capex can only really come along with reduction in value of ord shareholders sunk investment. Am not alone in being wary and weary.

Dibamba or 20 gensets or a route to export would be reason for a reevaluation but despite management hints at the last dilution, not convinced methinks. ENEO have brought us back from a cliff.

If Vog looks as if it has material +ve cash flow from operations, then there would be reason for a reevaluation. and
yes the current valuation is on low side ( Given the sunk costs) ....

Happy to be convinced otherwise.

Mel

NO VECKING

When you have relatively high bank gearing and hear of a new banking arrangement which smacks of inability to meet prior bank obligations.......the bank holds all the strings. Without the returned ( lower ) ENEO cash flow the sitrep would be serious.

Mel