Member Info for Bordersman

Crikey AEM. Would love that, but reverse engineering that , with the no of shares we have , even if you assume a TRAK like PE of 40 ( big if), would imply an expectation of 10p earnings per share. C. £45m group profits after tax + say £100mfor cash in balance sheet. Around "£2b " market capitalisation. I didnt get where I am today by knowing anything about the future. Mel

Phrontist Just look at the massive debt SGH has arranged. QPP needed a small fraction of that for 18 months. With the new probity types on board, which hedge Fund would not have offered additional £40m lending ( with an interest and equity bonus giving return of 30 %) £13 M cost of banking £150M conribution to profits over 12 years - trivial. £1b market cap - almost certainly. Shorts back off and take profits when weknesses are dealt with. mel

Phrontist It somehow was obvious that shorters would pick on the marked increase in debt and drive the SP down. U are right......I rejected the notion of SGH until the shorters had had their evil way. Mel

Sorry much lower quantum of finance than SGH had to find. Mel

Phrontist Any irriot could see that the QPP inherited WIP would suck in cash before it spat it out again. It is the same in any business which increases its work in progress. (an extreme example- Imagine building a dam - all it does is suck in cash until it begins to generate cash ) Key here is that SGH has arranged funding to see it through ( and we assume QPP had been inept and had not) . If SGh's plan is to scale back a bit ( 10%? = £30 M cash need reduction) volume throughput, it can assume a contribution to profits of around £150M, less finance costs, over the next 2 years from QP's WIP. Remember SGH has its original profitable trade. Eddison is predicting an Earnings per share ( ie after all costs and tax) increase of just short of 90% in 2017. I am a dutchman if SP does not treble sometime in 2017. My point all along is that QPP could have scaled back by shedding some of its WIP - arranged expensive short trem mezzanine finance /bank or bond funding .......and worked through the WIP to profit and cash generation. Even if the plan had been to shed PSD in time, it would have been a far stronger negotiating position if the sale had been delayed by a year. So then .....ah but it was in trouble and mincing towards liquidation I hear y'all say. Trust me - as debt clearance post sale was only £35M ( although a bank might have played awkward) there must have been options for financing a couple of cash flow. If QPP had had £100M debt the bad bit might have happened. It didnt and financing QPP through the lumpy WIP would have had a much quantum of finance than SGH had to find. Mel

Phrontist. Perhaps you should review the Edison research on SGh which points to 89% PAT uplift in 2017. That uplift as it works through the WIP and the cash generation should enable debt reduction...which in turn should eliminate the perceived weakness of high gearing. shorts dont like weakness elimination. If Eddison is right that should lead to higher PE . From where I sit , it appears that SGH's PSD purchase will prove to be materially accretive ( although I hate that word) over 2 years. They would be mad not to scale back throughput by 10%. Not difficult. The accretive bit, reduction of WIP coming point to a 200-300% sp rise possibility ( Probability) over 2 years. SGh is doing nothing that QPp could not have done. Pity. Mel

Have not got a feel for Indivior yet. Freedom can unlock new energy and direction. Will hold since they dont owe me anything. Anyone got Financial diary dates? Mel

RU not a bit scared of dilution solution? mel/brdrs

cyberbub you are not all wrong. However NAV relies upon a fair wind and any need to sell might find a lower property value. So NAV is probably ephemeral.......and my bet is that Alpha group will arrange a within stable dilution which My incompetence point is that the company should have been making annual provisions or hedging for this so obvious material risk. Its not sensible to invest and rely on management which makes a complete @rse of it. Better to find directors with the wit and wisdom to run operations properly and create value.....because that is the point of directors. History repeats itself and my bet is a large chunk of what you think is your % of AP will disappear elsewhere in the ALpha stable, dilution will be at a stonking discount to the SP and your gambling directors will do so again. My view is that the best route to value is for the directors do their duty - to own up, liquidate, & return your capital. They wont. They will try to gamble again. If you want a reliable defensive divvy - I like PEW ( water & power gen) - 2 Ftse headed cash cows in 2 yrs ( AVN & VOG) ...& if it comes good - a multi bagger Cyan ( smart meter chips). I am not always right - and am embarrassed about my laziness here. Bad shares have a tendency to stay that way. Mel/Brdrs

Enilk .....I am afraid I don't get your observation. Thanks to VkSing on Intreactive Investor: "ALPH to Pay BARC 130.1M Euros BARC to Pay ALPH 87.6M GBP ALPH to Pay BARC 33M Euros BARC to Pay ALPH 21.6M GBP Add collateral, cash etc and do the maths! " How can it tick up sensibly and how could you see confidence return with the above hanging over it? Mel/Brdrs

Knigelk . I have experience in corporate analysis. I cant believe I was too lazy to spot the exposure growing. You are right I have moved back damaged holding to Inmarsat ( but gambling on Cyan Holdings; & reckon 2 year bets on Vog and Avanti wlll fix the loss). On Alpha. If the £/Euro rate moves in the right direction then there is a get out of jail. On balance I think it unlikely. The unanswered question is the size and terms of any need to refinance. Dilution could further damage shareholder wealth in an environment where II's wont be uberenthusiastic for a highly geared French small portfolio. Then there is the question - why did management not endeavour to reduce risk by hedging? They didn't - They gambled and in my book thus demonstrated incompetence in their Treasury Practices. When management demonstrates this sort of incompetence - it ought to be replaced - but turkeys seldom vote for Xmas. I cant complain. The information is there. I was too lazy to drill down to it. I wont be looking back much. I wish everyone luck in their approach to investing and making a buck. The Property net asset value is delusional and refinancing almost inevitable. I cant see how it would not be very dilutory & very painful . SP recovery - ? with a management tainted by incompetence? Long time methinks. Thanks for the Picton suggestion. Mel/Brdrs

....Because Barclays have to be sure Alpha's loans meet criteria of loan covenant next year. If they do not they will contribute to Barclays loans at risk pile and affect Barclays lending ratios adversely. Barclays will effectively be forced to demand Alpha P improves its balance sheet. II's would be an expensive source if II's can be found. Another co in the alpha stable might lend / subscribe to equity. The dilution is likely to be eyewatering. If the euro collapses it could be a get out of jail card. If the trend continues - OMG! Remember that one way pound sterling gets out of jail is devaluing. . However Alpha P should be guarding its resources and cash like the crown jewels - not putting assets at risk. I am guilty of being stupid. I was unaware of the extent of the currency risk exposure. The management are guilty of reckless incompetence. Whether the sp rises ( if the swap improves as euro falls) or not ( or worsens as euro rises against pound) is now irrelevant. I don't trust stupid and incompetent people. It is no longer for me. The experience has taught me to research the heck out of anything I invest in. Good luck - I hope you make a profit - I doubt it. Mel/Brdrs

Well just lost a stack on a 3 year investment here after taking the view that they have gambled away all their cash, all the collateral with Barclays, cant possibly meet the loan requirements at the next loan review unless they sell a property at valuation ( ?) I do gamble on AIM based on growth paths /cash burn and future cash flow expectations. ... but a geared property company Inv Trust which loses all its real equity on a currency swap? The likely outcome is that dodgy lending co in the alpha stable will dilute existing shareholders big time. Dilution in the current climate ? Oh dear. The Value in the share will be a lot less once its cash and collateral have been given to Barclays. Barclays wont then like the loan and the shape of Alpha P. This for me was a bottom drawer investment for yield. It is just possible I am wrong. Nevertheless I can not believe any Inv trust manager would gamble to the degree Alpha appears to have done. It suggests they don't really know what they are doing and have a treasury practice policy which is absurd. Not for me. Mel/Brdrs

I don't often badmouth anyone unless I am joking. However the existence of Alpha P depends upon the Oct outcome of its currency swap exposure. Not being sure of the implications and putting yr money at risk is really really silly. Yes euro has dropped a bit and that is good - but it still stands to lose all its collateral and balance sheet cash - and a couple of weeks ago was still then short of £8M. If it does not improve it looks as if it would definitely fail its LTV tests to Barclays on loans - and your G*nads will be crushed in the dilution ( If that is thye can find ii's to invest) Then there is the small matter of property valuations and bonkers dependence upon one tenant. The info is all there - check it! Mel/Brdrs

Dont be happy. If you can work out a way for Alpha P to escape the massive Currency swap loss ( cost is all their BS cash - all the Collateral at Barclays + £10M cash) then be happy. After you have checked out the currency swap exposure which has gone really badly wrong - I think you will take the obvious sensible option. It cant possibly get better unless the Euro collapses against the pound by Oct. It might. However as it stands it it will be insolvent at the next LTV bank covenant test. Do you think it sensible to invest in a company which takes a 50% gamble on currency direction and puts the solvency of the co at risk on a 50% direction bet. Gambling and punting in ignorance is just fine. This doubly geared company ( High LTV loans and Currency swap exposure which has gone bedly wrong) has to be refinanced if it is to continue. Without a eurocollapse by Oct it will be very painful. Mel/ Borders.

Would love to know - especially as I am left with massive loss and no dividends. What they do not know is that Treasury Practice is about hedging and eliminating curency risk. The Swap losses got out of hand because they took an exposed position and risk beyond the ability of the company to cover or finance if it went wrong. I believed I was investing in a dull geared mainly paris property investment company not a casino. My guess is the directors are desperate - they stand to lose their fees and probably think - it isnt over till we see where the exposure is in Oct 13 but anywhere near where it is now and they have to sell property to pay Barclays in Oct. Do you believe they will get their valuations on a quick sale? So 1. Alpha group have a dodgy high rate loan co in their stable. That part of the Aplpa group will have a duty to screw Aplha P in a distressed position if it finances the £10m swap settlement ( after using all Alpha P dosh and the collateral at Barclays) 2. Can you see a II investing in a failed property invetment trust without suing for HUGE dilution 3. Do you really believe the "valuations" stack up in the open market? 4. Directors Inv - petty cash V's fees. I am not saying this for fun - and I dont like my losses & would stay if there were recovery prospects. best hope is breakup and other parts of Alpha buying the properties - then there may be some value engineered in house - but not the so called asset value which does not take into acc the swap losses. mel/brdrs mel/Bordersman

And what pays for the monster currency swap loss in Oct? All the cash, all the bank collateral ....and where is the £10M extra to come from? And who is going to buy dilutory shares to refinance so it can pass bank covenant tests? Dilution - massive dilution - or bust. I rather suspect your wealth is in danger - please check out the currency swap loss position before making uninformed encouraging posts.

Forgive me but I invested here for 4 yrs and sold out for 78% loss - The monster currency swap losses look as if they will soak up bank collateral/ cash in bank/ and need another £10M in Oct. Then its obvious that it cant pass the next bank covenant tests and will need refinance. The dilution would be eye watering if it can be achieved. I urge you to do some research. I cant see why anyone would risk investing here. At least I exited with 22% of my stake.

Its not just the £10m shortfal, aplh p will have lost bal sheet cash and the £7m collateral at barclays. If proparty could be sold at valuation - it would need to sell £40M ( they have 75% gearing) to generate £10M cash. Admitedly with a 20-25% smaller portfolio and a couple of years of no divy , it could rebuild some bal sht cash. Who on earth would trust alpha p again after gambling with your assets? I was lazy and thought I wa sinvesting in geared property in Paris. ....and they get paid to gamble at 1 % of the whole property portfolio. It could be that our banks are being told to ensure extra £25B capital because the next stage is rising interest/ falling asset valuations. The only organisation I could see refinancing is another alpha stable co in the risky loans business. ....and back of an envelope it needs £20M to look respectable again. I dont need to tell you the ords have been hammered and NAV 34p needs a huge leap of faith when anyone can see covenants are breeched. My foolishness has cost me about £16K.

You dont need 2 months. U know 0 vlaue unless Currency swap comes good. If the Euro Drops Vs the £ to 1.25 then OK. If it stays the way it is - The collateral at Barclays + all BS cash + a further £10m required. "Funding" would involve horrendous dilution/