Member Info for Bordersman

Thebrancher

Perhaps I am missing something but don't the runes say " Regarding the 450 megawatts, Eneo,Altaaqa,Grennor will be hopefully connected over the next couple of years, ".......that that level of supply can not be achieved without more drilling/ capex/ pipelaying/ plant capacity expansion?

Cash generation isnt in happy bunny state......new gearing at uncomfortable level .......so it is difficult to see capex spend for the future being funded from VOG generated cash. It is difficult not to believe that VOG is boxed in with new equity injection needed. It is difficult not to wonder who on earth are the new bedfellows who put up the last dilution dosh.

Boxed in ?

Mel ( hoping am missing something mode)

PS Nobody has properly given an explanation as to whether ENEO can pay its o/s creditors and whether it is likely to pay on time for future supplies.

PS2 .....as MT points out he has lost a 6 fig sum , the degree of poor SP performance has been horrendous and it is very difficult to believe any of us will see our money back unless we get lucky trading the share. .

Thank you to all who have commented on the AGM

I am in the lost a material amount as a result of my faith that VOG would get to volume sales and material profits.
I think MT has really put his finger on the mark. I struggle to see how VOG could possibly wholly reverse the effect of the dilutions and consolidation even if the promised land of volume sales comes about in the next 2-3 years. I dont see how Vog could get there without material capital spend. Large Capex, and indeed exploration, is fine if the cash flow forecast allows it. By my calculations ( which I admit are possibly wide of the mark) ... it does not without even greater gearing or more dilution.

The questions about the previously unknown Savannah , who owns it ... and drill cost over run/// have not been answered . Unless I have missed something, we are none the wiser about the validity of the insurance claim. A successful claim settled in the early course is not something I expect..

All that said , Vog gas sales to 3 volume gas consumers should help the VOG market capitalisation materially.
Not enough to deliver investment returns to LT shareholders.

Do I believe VOG can get to volume sales without dilution. Not yet and I certainly need more information before I am persuaded.

Mel ( in listening mode)

In ouch mode.

Mel

I wonder why such an agreement has taken 6 years since it was first mooted.

I wonder too at 109. I wonder if there is more to the stuck bit in 108 , just as there was for 106 , which with collapsed well was not really a fully operating gas well.

I have reduced my holding again.

Mel

..................and there was a Virtual Pipeline " in it. Mel

ENEO back in July? ( at least the ops update refers to the possibility) 10 - 1 odds ( or is it a "Bridge to profits?") Mel ( in anyone seen Soc Gen skulking about recently mode ?)

Gosh that really is accretive. Spend $3-4M to save $250,000 pa Mel

LuckCounts I have not met Hart but I have had dealings with the previous chairman. Here is the critical factor. The main reason I have no confidence in COC is because they appear to have made no effort to tell the intitutions what the plan is. The Monaco base screams of gimme the cheque book. mel

chris211 Feel the quality of the information you have on COC so far .....and their directors..........and coherent strategy ( what is it?) My feeling is that COC has been so limited in the pertinent information they have supplied that you may find you have bought a nasty pig in a poke. mel Mel.

Richard What evidence do you have about COC which gives you confidence that they have the integrity, ability or plan which justifiies replacing directors with O&G technical experience with those who have , as far as we know, none. There is the small matter of relationships with the Cameroon government. Do you know something the rest of us do not? What is the agenda of COC? Billy Allen I trust. I assume he can be relied upon to look after the best interests of shareholders, both institutions and PI's. If COC come up with great plans, I assume he would not block. If COC just wish to grab the chequebook I assume he would not play ball. Sometimes it is prudent to beware what you wish for. Mel

I am now a shareholder and support Billy Allen wholeheartedly and will vote accordingly. Monaco based COC have given no evidence that they have the experience and ability to run Bowleven. I am more concerned about whether they have integrity. If they wish to bid for Bowmore - that is fine. Perhaps they would need pockets deeper than they have . Bowleven did not have the resources to develop Etinde. Lukoil does and 20% is huge. I shall certainly vote against the appointment of new directors. Mel

So COC. Private company. Monaco Is it friendly to Friends of the Earth, Friends of Dangote, Lukoil, Daesh, Mafia, the good Syrian doctor, the tooth fairy ,money laundry? You would think that the ordinary Joe would want to know more than grass cutting, lawyer ( dont trust them) . Monaco, and private company. Often good to know a little about who you jumped into bed with. Honour, integrity, competencies. all good things to know. It would be polite for COC to tell the public. Mel

Ted1 Institutional investors voted fro old guard, they know a thing or 2. COC, remerkably, asked shareholders to support them but havent shown a smidgeon of O&G expertise. or their actual strategy. Usefully they can bring their great ideas - ut they have not won board control and do not have the chequebook. Mel

COC stated this was not a company takeover. Are we to believe they are liars? Mel

CHRIS It isnt a quick fix - but if and when a LNG plant is indeed built then there is a monetising option for the gas at Bomono Etinde Matanda and Logbaba. - Huge. VOG and Bowl may seem like competitors, but they both have the problem that in country sales of gas have a limit. The real pot of gold can be derived by proving up enough gas to help brig about an LNG plant fro LNG exports. As a VOG holder I believe it is in the best interests of both companies to cooperate and prove the quantum of NG to justify the proposed LNG plant. Both companies could make that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow as and when and if it is built. In the meantime Bomono gas sales for Bowleven will ensure the cash assets of Bowleven are not diminished. I think there is every hope of large returns for Bowleven - I accept not tomorrow. Mel

Sorry meant LNG plant Mel

Rot1 In case you hadn't clocked it 1. Gazprom promised to buy all CNG from Cameroon 2. Of course no CNG plant built yet but endless discussion. As and when and if it is built the assets ubder the ground will have huge value. COC wasnt patient enough to wait till value appeared but may have stopped those who expected value to appear from reaping rewards. (Institutions) .......however the old guard still retains control with the chairman's casting vote. All that said I am on the side of PI's regardless and each has his/her own decisions to make. The waters certainly got cloudier and for sure it isnt over. Good luck with a director who presumably has grass cutting knowledge. I hope and expect 3 chunks of really good news from VOG on its operations in 2017. Great I hold a lot of VOG. ( for me) . When the news is in and voggies expect it all to transfer to P/L and material uplift in cash flow - It will be constrained by monetisation options just like Bowleven It is obvious to me that everyone would be a winner if VOG/Bowl ( & Lukoil?)can help bring about a LNG plant so monetisation is easy quick and assured. ( Gazprom has promised to buy it all) Then watch the O&G activity in Bomono Etinde Matanda and Logbaba take off. Hart & co may have been too expensive to carry - BUT taking eye off ball on the big prize ahead ( LNG plant) would be really stupid. Mel

legalese So, if you are right, we can expect a very rapid profits warning from SGH and Redde? You know what the chinese say about disaster ...opportunity about! Mel

meanwhile Redde plc has a divy yield of 7.4% and a PE of 18. Legalese - I do listen and often learn. I am sometimes wrong . Can you tell us why it will impact massively on RTA claims business. I ran this past a legal buddy ( fellow QPP investor) and in his view it would cut out dross rather than impact on the high margin cases where medical and legal expertise is needed to nail a claim. mel

Had a quick chat with my solicitor buddy QPp investor. His view is that SGH will be unaffected by the changes. No industrial injury claim would get anywhere without expert medical opinion and legal help. If there is some minor dross clear out , it will declog. No bad thing. Any businessman/woman knows SGH post acquisition had to keep pumping £'s into WIP and that SGH will have had the gumption to cover that in the finance arranged. As Greech ( of SGH) pointed out - wait till you see the second half to pass judgement. I see nothing to alter the Edison estimates of £0.25 Billion PBT spread over the 2 years to June 2017. .... the stonking 83% rise in Earnings/share for SGH shareholders in the same period. If there is a problem with SGH shares it will lie in the Covenant of the loans SGH arranged. If they are related to SGH market Cap.( now £165M) .....I concede there would be a problem ( and a jaw dropping/ astonishing cheap opportunity for those with cash to pick up £0.25Billion PBT, and expectations of net cash generative WIP over the next 20 months ) Central to the QPP normal shareholder thinking has to be the question of how to get value back into the equity/? It could take Aeons to grow datamanagement/ telematics business to a fraction of the profits stream now facing SGH. SGH Market cap is £160M ......I quite like the idea of no cash distribution and £0.25Billion Profits before tax over the next 20 months to end June 2017. and poetic justice. A merger with SGH could cure any borrowing covenant issue. Separation of data management from Legal services has been achieved and , if data management has lots of value, it could appear in an IPO or sell off. Meanwhile Greech of SGH tells us that the second half of its trading year will tell a completely different story. If no borrowing covenant is breached he does not have a problem. The converse is true. It would be odd if SGH cant tough out 6 months. Mel