Member Info for bluemoon71

Results are in line with expectations, on plan and with no surprises. Rahul is doing what he said he would do. SP isn't down to him. If you're impatient, move on.

GLA LTH

85% of districts reported and it's currently a dead heat between 2 main candidates. This could get messy and protracted. Not good for an imminent RNS on Kenya deal!

As it stands the merger is clearly dependent on the Kenya deal being sorted, with a corresponding increase in Tlw SP before the merger vote. Without it there's no way Capricorn shareholders will approve given recent voicings. President election is close,as expected. An uncontested result will be a positive, whoever wins. Currently Odinga has 3% lead with 75% of voting districts declared

Not a very comforting read for those hoping for a quick resolution to President election. Could be a rocky path to getting a strategic partner announced. Fingers crossed

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/09/world/kenya-elections.amp.html

Whether Smith is 'on the make' or not, they own 5% of Capricorn, which is a sizeable No vote when only 25% need to vote No to stop merger. As others say, I presume it's been factored in by both boards that Tlw will be much higher post Kenya. GLA LTH

Some unrest within a major Capricorn shareholder put merger in question?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/capricorn-investor-seeks-to-end-tullow-deal-push-for-new-review

Reporting small supply increase for September (100k bpd), insignificant in scheme of things. Should provide strong support to oil price.

A positive RNS dropping soon on Guyana would go someway to explaining today's price movement. Fingers crossed

GLA LTH

I note that Capricorn has dropped off Short Tracker website (https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc ),meaning no holdings above 0.5%. Was over 2% when merger was announced. Tullow has been steady throughout at 2.8%. Could do with Tullow following suit now

GLA LTH

Rahul did not promise to inform us about Kenya by end of June.

No surprise here, just another start of the 40-60p cycle. Pity those frightened into selling(again) at the low end. One day we'll break out of the cycle on the upside. Maybe the update next week, Guyana drill and or Kenya news will be the catalyst

GLA LTH

No one loses or makes money until they sell. It's a basic principle of share dealing that I'm surprised people need reminding of.

Shorters make money because PIs react to sentiment not results. Good luck with your strategy of second guessing where oil is going. I'm holding until the data tells me the SP should be 25 not 75p.

GLA LTH

On an up day for poo, this is now getting into territory where either market knows something or company needs to issue statement.

Unusually following Tullow down today...

Over the last month Tlw is down 15%, BP down 12%,Enq down 21%...we're not being singled out. Hold.

Tlw SP has cycled a number of times in last 12 months between 55+ and 45. We were 55p a few weeks ago and suspect we'll be back there by operating update on July 13th. The doomsayers always appear at this part of the cycle. DYOR and GLA LTH

There's no sinister manipulation outside of traders taking advantage of low volumes. We almost went bust, I for one am pleased we are where we are,and confident in the future. We've had a some good green shoots , and Rahul has delivered everything he's promised so far, but no material reflection in bottom line numbers yet. Hopefully July 13th update is the start. Chill...

GLA LTH

Disagree, this isnt about merger, it's business as usual for last 12 months. 50M+ shares on loan and low trading volumes, means shorters/MMs can cycle this 10-20% at will and make lots if money,and they have been. There's been no major II selling and only positive news from Rahul. Patience definitely needed, but no panic from this LTH

CNE shorts down another 0.12% yesterday. Voleon, the only major short, is down from 2.1 to 1.37% in 3 trading days since RNS. Suspect it will be lower again tomorrow. Tullow shorts unchanged over same period. Seems they're forming an orderly queue