Member Info for bluemoon71

Terms of Uganda sale were, Tlw receives 1.25%(net of tax) on upstream revenues if Brent above $62 and 2.5% if Brent above $70.

'That strategy is already failing' - Really? Do expand...we are 12 months into a 10 year plan and, as far as i see, all targets have been hit or accelerated.

The 'fool' in question I believe, is Motley Fool, where you got the quote from!

9% drop in SP for confirming results and future numbers in line with forecast. Strange times!

Good slide on hedges. Upside exposure to oil price is 40% of volume,not 25% as parrotted by doomsayers on here, increasing to 45% post pre exemption rights. Realised poo in jan/feb $89. All good stuff.

Same here

Far from hedging being suicide,it has underpinned Rahul's turnaround strategy. As for the "average investor " looking elsewhere. At 58.5p Tlw is up 20+% ytd, BP is up 8%! This is a great investment on 12 month outlook

GLALTH

There's so much intra day volatility because of the Ukraine situation that trying to second guess the market and trading the swings really is just pot luck. Much more relaxing to accept that whatever the swings, at over $100/barrel Tullow is making lots more than the start of year forecast. GLALTH

German Economy Minister quoted as saying he doesnt support embargo on Russian oil/gas seems to have spooked oil markets, but I suspect the dip will be short lived as companies effectively self embargoing Russian oil. MMs never miss trick to hammer Tlw SP

Irrespective of short term SP, take comfort that at these oil prices Tullow's coffers are being filled at a much greater rate than start of year forecast. The SP will take care of itself over time

GLALTH

Always a good sign when the doomsayers appear. Welcome to the FTSE250

GLALTH

The average price of Brent in January was $86.5. They could not achieve an average,including hedged volume, of $86, if as has been reported here 75% is hedged with ceiling of $78, irrespective of whether they produced more. The $86 is for the unhedged volume. The maths says it has to be.

When the note says, realised $86(post hedge), I read this as the price achieved for barrels up and above those that are hedged, given POO avg was about this in January. Don't see how the maths works otherwise?

GLALTH

You can look at the SP and recoil in horror at -20% in 2 weeks, or as a LTH, see +4.5% ytd over the month after another operational update that met or exceeded previous forecasts. I sleep well at where this is heading in next 12-18 months. For those that want to trade these wild swings,good luck,you'll need it.

Speaking of Shorters...

Bad day relative to POO and other oilies. Wouldn't be surprised to see shorts have increased post results

My initial concern from RNS of low FCF in 2022 has been removed. With limited opportunity to pay down debt this year, company is taking advantage of high oil prices to accelerate some of infrastructure capex. All good rationale. Once again, Rahul in charge of detail. GLALTH

At 41p Tullow SP is up 40%+ ytd and total shorts are down from 12% to about half of that. As a long term holder this has been a good year of progress, from the abyss we were facing. Day traders,shorters or just the impatient can paint a very different picture, but Rahul has steered a good course. Bring on 2022 and GLA LTH

Looks painful but with current hedge caps, unless Brent falls below 70$, makes little difference to our cash flow. Hold steady LTH.

Those complaining about Tullow's 'boring and disappointing' RNS yesterday, are seeing the impact of meets vs missing expectations in Enquest RNS today. Give me boring and predictable every time

GLA LTH