Member Info for bluemoon71

Amazing that some are disappointed. Steady and predictable is exactly what Tullow needs,and is giving us to rebuild investor trust. Less ammunition for shorters and day traders also means they'll soon get bored and move on. Steady as she goes is definitely what the doctor ordered

GLA LTH

Total shorts at end October 5.9%, 3.9% of which are those reported with holding over 0.5%. The 5.9% is vs c12% at start of year, since when there's been a steady,but slow, month on month reduction. Getting there

GLA LTH

In the absence of a major production disruption, SP downside is limited from here. Once shorts overhang is reduced/removed we should move to a fairer value(60-70p), thereafter oil price and production performance will be the main drivers. It will be mundane, slow burn, as is the way with production vs exploration companies.

GLA LTH

Capital have dropped 0.11% and are now below 0.5% reporting threshold. Nice start to November

GLA LTH

Agree Jet. There are too many short term traders and not enough investors interested in Tullow at the moment. With the "going concern" risk behind us that will change in time, but it is a slow burn. Happy to hold

GLA LTH

Whilst 75% of our production is effectively capped at c $70/Bbl , 25% is benefitting from the higher oil price. 15,000 bbl/day @+$20 vs $65 basecase plan is +$100m YOY run rate. All helps.

GLA LTH

To be clear, the $72/Bbl for 75% of production, is not the downside floor of Tullow's hedges, it is the ceiling,ie. the max we get for the 75% of production. The floor is still around 55$/bbl. At least that is my understanding.

SP is up 75% ytd and 150% yoy. Timelines are all relative. Chill.

GLA LTH

The presentation was entirely inline with expectations of anyone seriously following Tullow. Some(deluded) people think we are still in the days of massive swings where uncertainty about going concern status was the main driver. As Rahul stated, we are predominantly an operating not exploration company now. That means a focus on delivery and costs. Boring perhaps, but certainly more robust. Hopefully those looking for excitement, including shorters, will move on when the penny drops.

GLA LTH

Odey reduced by 0.33% on 28th. Confusion with total shorts is that Pictet is reported twice at 1.27%. Actual declared shorts ( above 0.5%) should be 3.9 not 5.2%.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Odey reduced 0.33% yesterday. Now we're cooking. Although what appears a double count for Pictet still showing???

Pictet reduced 0.11% yesterday to 1.27% but are reported twice in short listing as Pictet Ltd and Pictet S.A so total shorts showing as increased to 5.5%. Strange

After yesterday's update, let the shorters have their bit of fun. There are 80-90 million shares shorted that need to be bought back. An announcement about JV on Kenya could land anytime in next 3-6 months, at which point the shares will be a lot more expensive than they are now. Enjoy the ride and GLALTH

Jan, if you type ENQ into the LSE search box something amazing happens. It takes you to the Enquest chat board. Enjoy.

https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/d5erhti3 or go to Tullow website and link is there

Another impressive input from Rahul, he's a man with firm control of the detail. Kenya is looking good with "strong interest" from potential strategic partners.

GLALTH

2 key messages for LTH today. 1. We're officially back as a going concern. 2. Strat plan on course with no new negative surprise in results. Every thing else is noise from rampers/derampers. Enjoy.

Capital have had the bulk of their short (0.49% out of 0.62%) open since 2018 when SP was over £2, so they are well up. It is strange they chose this week to increase by 0.12%, but it is against the general reduction in shorts since start of this year. Will be interesting to see movements this week. I remain positive. GLALTH

Risk, no, Capital took their latest short out this week, so need the SP to be below what they took it out at to make money. As for total shorts, someone reported on it back in July, it was roughly twice the declared level at the time, so around 7-8%

Capital increased their short by 0.11% yesterday. Interestingly they've held a short way back to 2018 .