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Prices are gong nuts meaning so will the SP here. Simples Vanadium Nitrogen up 10% in a week. My advice, get those defibrillators charged up. https://www.vanadiumprice.com/pangang-vanadium-prices-skyrocket/

@Killerpidgeon if I were you I would stick around for July, in my opinion it’s going to be a killer month (excuse the pun). All this talk about the SP potentially experiencing further falls once the quarterly updates are upon us, is with all due respect nonsense. It’s all about sentiment which can change on the spin of a hat. What one minute is grey suddenly becomes sunny and bright. Right now it’s easy to doubt because the trend is down, but it will soon switch and no doubt will take many by surprise. It will happen here soon enough. Just take a look at the AV RNS from last night and note the contact that was noted as being the instigator of that MOU, one Mastermines. Then look on twitter and read what they and their other partner DragonEV are saying about where they believe V prices are going in the second half of the year. The fundamentals are only just kicking in and BMN has yet to show its latest 3 monthly cards. But it’s coming and combined it’s going to kick this downtrend right out of the window.

Apologies I perhaps made a slight error earlier because BMN state in their June Junior Indaba presentation, a YTD figure of $64 per kg FeV. If we factor in the 4 weeks since, then the YTD figure we should see from the brokers will be circa $65 per kg. I say again $65 per kg at half year. BMN SP at 18p. The two simply do not fit one another meaning something has to give.

The time for the SP to begin its next move north must now be very close. V205 prices are now averaging over $17 per lb, that is phenomenal. Vametco at 3 week into their realised H2 is averaging $72.30 per kg FeV in Europe and $76.30 in the US. Wow! These are truly heady times. Better still the real time H1 average FeV figure has been strengthened further these last few weeks, such that any reference brokers employ for H1 2018 should be reported in the region of $63, which again leads to an even stronger basis for valuation. This week will see the 2017 accounts released, which will in turn see the start of a minimum month long period of news releases across BMN’s main platforms. Everything but everything points to a strong focus being once again placed on BMN’s latest achievements, at a time when Vanadium prices are as strong as they have ever been. If BMN has achieved their milestones as planned and as signposted, then the progress combined with those prices should see a very strong reaction in the SP. For those that believe the market always prices stock fairly and in line with their current worth, I would encourage you to place close attention to what happens here over the next few weeks/months. BMN are likely going to deliver near as damn it exactly what they clearly stated they would in this time period. The price of Vanadium has very clearly and much more publicly demonstrated it strength. This in turn has been clearly benchmarked by the company in terms of the outcomes that will drive for the company. And yet the market sits and waits and does not give respect to what is clearly going on in the background. It will soon enough and it’s highly likely going to be quite a thing to see when it does. And that of course ignores the bonus developments, the perceived progressive items. We are talking merely what the company is producing, planning to produce, developing and executing in line with what they said they would do this year and beyond. Tick tock. .

@Loudspeaker yes when all of this comes together it’s going to be quite a show. I read about so many potential start up junior miners reveling and rejoicing in the current V205 pricing environment, and what it means for their future schemes. But it’s a discussion about a price environment of now influencing a world of the future, of which there is no true guarantee. But for BMN it is a now that is all about now. Thus for every pound I would deem worthwhile investing in said start ups, I would have to be investing at least 10x that in BMN, because at this valuation and those prices, those fundamentals, there is currently no comparison, no percentage play that says to me the return is worth the added risk. For all of their SA positioning, this perceived risk is drowned by the fundamental environment that Vanadium and BMN find themselves in. By knowing and understanding that one can readily conclude that BMN is going to see a considerable increase in value, because it’s simply got a powerhouse of pricing activity backing up the multiple development front it is pursuing, and like I say it will be quite a show to see.

@1210 the 24 hour shutdown was worth it to read your post. Very funny

@Paludina this is just the start of things to come. H2 is looking like it’s going to be substantially stronger than H1, which is saying something. We are two weeks into Q3 and the average European FeV price sits at $72. Whilst in the US it’s at a whopping $76, both mid price only. The environmental inspections are already being evidenced as affecting V205 supplies, but the true effect will be when those inspectors start asking for production pullbacks in this winter. Both act as a rather tasty wrapping to the new rebar regs, which should starting biting in Q3 as steel mills seek to build inventory ahead of the implementation in November. At the same time BMN will be ramping up production post phase 2 expansion. It’s a very very very strong fundament driven position indeed.

@UKsteveg By the time we reach early Oct BMN will have presented a substantially more developed and profitable company, such that the SP has absolutely no chance of holding at this now lowly level. So all the pressure will be SP related not news. We are now 28 weeks into BMN’s 2018 sales period and are averaging over $62 per kg and rising. BMN need only deliver somewhere close to its production guidance and that alone will be enough to double the SP from here. It now simply about when and how it will be confirmed because they have, to a great extent, already taken place. That’s the point here. We are not talking about what could happen, we are waiting to be told what we already know has happened, so the less informed market can react. Then throw in those items with clear direction and to date clearly signposted timelines that are painted as being on schedule, and we have a cocktail of high impact progressive news backed up by big numbers. That can only mean one thing.

@Sharesahoy I wouldn’t worry about that too much. All known facts point to a substantial re-rate once the next phase of news is released.

The current price action is most interesting given that the newsflow will begin in earnest next week. Common sense says the market will start to turn its attention to BMN again as this period draws closer because a number of updates are signposted and fairly clear in their outcomes. We will find out soon enough. Ona separate note I see Pangang has raised its FeV prices by nearly 5% this week. That’s going to cause a ripple or two.

@PennyPusher it’s a Chinese public holiday at the moment, back to work tomorrow.

@Sanchez no I believe they are playing this very professionally. They have immediately answered the charter meaning they are demonstrating a clear position and giving the government the maximum amount of time to take these views on board. They know exactly what court action means for Ramaphosa and they want to explore every avenue before recommencing their court action, because they need Ramaphosa to be successful. But at the same time they are being clear and concise on what they believe will undermine investment in the industry of which they make up 90%, plus what their members cannot live with. They will no doubt give ground but do to must the government and Ramaphosa.

@Sanchez yes I agree with you entirely but at the same time one cannot deny that RET was always a part of that same sales pitch. I believe it’s clearly more than a tweak because the once empowered always empowered question, which for me was the biggest thorn, has been answered. That aside it is important to remember that Ramaphosa and his team are walking a tightrope between the two main ANC factions here. That is why Ramaphosa was only able to partially remove all Zuma related ministers when he overhauled the government departments. He is slowly building up his power and leverage on the party, driven by his economic and corruption agendas. I am damn sure he would like to see a far more business friendly mining charter introduced having spent so many years amassing his fortune on that very sector. He knows what it’s like to be on the other side of the table. The problem he has is he does not have a clean slate from which to implement all of his policies from the off. The Zuma faction is still there, it’s still strong, and it’s looking for weaknesses. A failure to implement RET is a opportunity for them to attack him and undermine him. So he must tread carefully and play this game like a game of chess. The Mining Charter is a part of that game, thus we should judge the outcome on what is gazetted not what has this far been presented.

@Sanchez599 I appreciate what you are saying but the new charter is already a vast improvement on the 2017 version. The fact that the Minerals Council is approaching it from a position of negotiation is a clear signal that they believe things can be altered without the use of the courts. That’s a big step change. Therefore what we may find is that a tactical game of chess and face saving is going on here. That Mantashe wants to show a desire to play the RET card but in the end will water down the charter in order to avoid court and to get the industry moving forward. With a view to presenting the case that the industry simply would not budge and we cannot afford further delay and uncertainty. That’s not to say that he won’t walk away with a few wins, he has too, it’s perhaps more a case of demonstrating that the effort was applied but in the end the need to stimulate jobs wins over the need to extend RET, at this particular point in time. Ramaphosa for me is jobs and economy first and RET second, and that’s where the buck stops in the end, and Mantashe is his Minister not Zumas.

Good morning. So it looks very much like the Minerals Council isn’t going to accept the Mining Charter in its current form. There is a planned summit targeted for 7th-8th July with a view to thrashing out the exact content. From the enclosed initial response it is clear that the Minerals Council is setting their stall out easier in terms of their starting position for negotiation. From BMN’s point of view, whilst I am not happy that the BEE content must be raised to 30%, the fact that they have 5 years and, they are not affected by a number of other issues that new rights will have, means it’s by no means a show stopper, and that is what matters in the end. However, it is clear that the Minerals Council are not in agreement with this and even more significant, they have gone on record to say it was a surprise inclusion. A fact I am myself very surprised to hear. It means there is potentially a large gap to fill between the parties. The government cannot afford for this to go to court because it will make the new administration look very foolish as their commitment to free up business and bring certainty will fall flat on its face. However, it is also clear that the transformation policy runs strong enough within the ANC for it to be problematic to remove. That’s a headache that needs a solution. I look forward to seeing how this plays out over the next month. To be clear though the only risk I see for BMN is the uncertainty dragging on and thus the potential affect that could have on investment. But even then for me it remains limited because Vametco is fully funded and profits are running very high. http://www.mineralscouncil.org.za/industry-news/media-releases/2018/send/35-2018/598-minerals-council-notes-dmr-charter-2018

The reality is that the Mining Charter is out there for all investors to see and for BMN there is nothing that cannot be managed or knocks them off their stride. The release of the charter brings policy certainty and risk that can be measured. Yes there are questions as to how things will be implemented but they aren’t show stoppers. Also the 5 year window gives existing miners the time and room to implement the plan without the need to panic or unsettle their investors. It’s a very good result for BMN and that will show itself in time. In addition it caps off what is a very significant week for BMN, which those not paying enough attention will have not noticed. Vanadium Prices have broken their year highs, Environmental Inspections are real and taking affect, the CLNs have been closed, and the Mining Charter is finally out and us workable. That’s a good week, whatever the SP movements.

I am still digesting the content and mulling over the consequences but my initial view is it’s very good for BMN because first and foremost Vametco has 5 years to implement this. I appreciate that FM is keen to ensure local communities etc are looked after, but as a public company he also has a responsibility to balance that with the sacrifices that his shareholders have made. Remember there are some bigger fish swimming around these waters these days. So something in the middle would be perhaps fair for everyone and give BMN the chance to drive its expansion through the cash flows from Vametco over the next few years. All in all purely as a shareholder of BMN with a producing asset and mining right applications in play at both Mokopone and Brits, I am very happy indeed. Even more interesting is the section in the following article that states ; “Mining companies can offset up to 11% of the ownership element held by the empowerment entrepreneur through involvement in beneficiation of minerals and the sale of mineral production at an unspecified discount to mine-gate prices, which is the market price of those minerals less transport costs, or upgrading a portion of their own production to achieve a higher value.“ Does that remind anyone of anything? https://www.google.de/amp/s/www.businesslive.co.za/amp/bd/national/2018-06-15-breaking-news-new-mining-charter-released/

As discussed here already this week, here is the first evidence that those environmental inspections are already expected to cause problems in the supply side. They only started on 11th June. Isn’t that just wonderful. Remember also that the environmental inspections run until the end of April 2019. The term perfect storm has been banded about for a long time, but right now both the supply and demand side of Vanadium are experiencing unprecedented pressures from a multitude of avenues. Thus BMN is going to generate eye watering cash flows this year. https://www.vanadiumprice.com/vanadium-price-forecasts-for-next-week-june-18-22-2018/

@Tyfoon for me it’s about logical progression of the business. I don’t know exactly how BMN through Pa came to own only 64% of the project, but what I do know is a fledgling junior miner needs to get off the ground and so has limited negotiating powers with local landowners and BEE partners, In addition, BMN had no influence on how the 3 companies purchased from Sable Minerals were set up. They merely bought the potential at a time when even that was a major milestone. However, the world has now changed and BMN has a lot more cash at its disposal. So just like with Vametco, I see no reason why they would not up their stakes and control on these companies, and with it introduce a like minded BEE partner just like they have done at Vametco. To be clear, from what I have seen of FM/BMN he is very keen to ensure that local communities get a fair deal and with it the partner that is willing to assist with that transformation. So I would not be surprised if the percentages stayed slightly above 30%. But in the case of Cable Trade and Investment 1, the key company in the development of Brits, there is a great deal of wriggle room at 49% BEE compliance. Also at 49% BEE ownership the project is geared very heavily towards BEE and so puts much strain on BMN and it’s shareholders to drive the project forward. That for me is too great and BMN will know that and be looking to change it at the appropriate time. Just my opinion of course.

@Tyfoon a good question that only BMN can truly answer. What I do not expect to see is the company giving away more equity if the BEE percentage already sits at 30% it more. So it must be negotiated from those percentages that already exist. As it stands, the BEE percentages are as follows : Mokopone 36% Brits Cable Trade and Invest 1 = 49% Brits Gemsbok Magnetite = 26% Brits Great Line 1 = 30% It was stated in the Admission Dicument that the BEE partner for Gemsbok had indicated a willingness to sell and that Jaxson640 were willing to buy up this share. In terms of the immediate extension of the strike from Vametco, the companies Great Ljne 1 and Caber Trade and Investment are key, because they hold Uitvalgrond portions 2 and 3. Plus Caber Trade 1 owns the rights to Syferfontein which makes up the rest of the area immediately next to Vametco. Gemsbok is arguably the least significant at this time because it’s situated in a completely separate area east of the above farms. It is this interesting that Jaxson640 would be interested in partnering there. I have a strong feeling that BMN and Jaxson640 will look to negotiate both the BEE ownership of all 3 companies and furthermore look to reduce the total BEE ownership back down to more realistic levels. Hence BMN could, in implementing their new obligations, actually end up owning more of these projects not less.