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What I find really interesting here is how the market copes with the H1 figures. These figures are clearly signposted for late Sept 2018 and will be the first true evidence showing what all these Vanadium prices and production reports truly mean. John Meyer has himself just yesterday remarked that they are a pivotal point in the development of the business. The company will soon deliver its Q2 production, which along side the 731 mtv for Q1, will demonstrate the basis for those H1 figures. I fully expect an uplift in production as the company demonstrates its expansion plans are taking affect. Let say as an example they achieve a 15% increase. That would place Q2 production at 840 mtv and H1 at circa 1,570 mtv. Now without needing to go to far into the detail of what that means, that level of production will deliver considerable revenues and free cash flows, such that H1 will indeed be a pivotal moment, be it priced in prior or after the event. However, I would caution against taking it as read that this event will be the defining moment for 2018. Putting to one side the signposted developments for both BE and Lemur, simply because their exact timing and content cannot be truly determined at this juncture, then what we see is a company that is as of 29th June telling the market that it will achieve circa 3,680 mtv for 2018. Therefore just one month after the release of the H1 figures we will receive the Q3 production report. That report will need to demonstrate a figure that is pushing 1,000 mtv or the 3,680 mtv will be under pressure. Let’s remind ourselves once more that just 6 days ago the company re-affirmed the 3,680 mtv and that was just 1 day before the end of Q2, so they are confident. If Q3 does indeed demonstrate such a figure then what the market will have is the H1 figures with which to assess the impact those 1,000 mtv will have on H2, something many here already feel they know but not perhaps the wider market. So whilst H1 will no doubt cause a strong tremor here, just 4 weeks or so later, their could well be a second tremor, that wreaks greater damage than the first, particularly for those that see H1 as the high point for the year.

@Sanchez599 I get the distinct feeling that the BE numbers and business case, are going to blow the mining element of the business clean out of the water. It may not all come out with the electrolyte plant study, but that will certainly help build up the potential that the numbers have and how they can help secure the much bigger prizes on offer in the VRFB space. The strategic partnerships that are strongly indicated in the Annual Report, are also going to cause some strong ripples.

Here is a very worthwhile executive summary of what Bloomberg believes will happen in the power generation market between now and 2050. “We see $548 billion being invested in battery capacity by 2050, two thirds of that at the grid level and one third installed behind-the-meter by households and businesses.” So that’s $365 billion at grid level averaging over $11.4 billion per annum. Tick tock. https://about.bnef.com/blog/batteries-boom-enables-world-get-half-electricity-wind-solar-2050/

It’s almost becoming surreal isn’t it. European FeV mid prices as of 4th July reached $78.25 per kg. A jump of nearly $4 in just 3 day’s trading. This company certainly wasn’t born on the 4th July but it sure is living. https://www.vanadiumprice.com/european-fev-prices-boomed-on-high-buying-interest/

@Loudspeaker as far as I know the dispute is not resolved. The Admission Document states that the dispute affected the section 11 change of ownership. It may well be that the dispute has been resolved since then (October 2017) and does not need to be RNS’d. But the section 11 approval does and thus far it is still awaited (see Annual Report page 72). It’s by the by because the key thing is they are someway somehow progressing the drilling.

@kevkan a mining right application was already in play at the time the Brits project was purchased from Sable Minerals. It is being processed just like Mokopone. Where I remain confused is on the change of ownership. On page 72 of the Annual Report the company states they are awaiting regulatory approval. Once received they will begin to delineate the resource on the Uktvolgrond portion of the project. However, they have already started. If the approval had been received then they would need to RNS it. As they haven’t I can only assume they have decided that they have waited long enough, and have agreed a way forward with Sable Minerals. That aside the Lemur update is as thought on time and demonstrates a methodical and timely execution of what is an extremely complicated project in a difficult jurisdiction. The way this company hits the deadlines it has control of, is quite something to witness. We take it for granted but having been in the mining investment game for a good few years, I know what they are achieving is really remarkable. Lastly, I see the PPA has been revised up to 25MW, which is nearly half of the initial scheme, with the view that take offs will reach easily beyond the planned 60MW. Lemur is a very big thing that is managing to be sidelined by the Vanadium story. That in itself demonstrates just how big the Vanadium platform really is.

@Faramog the wording in the Annual Report, not the Final Results RNS, is very clear, it will for me be a dividend policy with dates and percentage allocation. “Bushveld is committed to delivering attractive returns to its shareholders. During the second half of 2018, the Company will define a capital allocation framework, which will outline the Company’s approach towards shareholder returns, including a dividend policy designed to encourage capital efficiency, to support the Company’s growth initiatives while simultaneously rewarding investors.“

I assume the vast majority here have seen the Strategic Priorities for 2028 on page 18 of the Annual Report ; Two that particularly caught my eye were ; “Simplify Bushveld Minerals Organisational structure. “List on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.” 1. The listing of this simplification process gives it far weighting than the company would perhaps wish for at this time. That simplification is Sojitz end of. 2. The listing on the JSE isn’t an idea it’s a plan and will happen in 2018. For me that will introduce SA investors who by their geography will bring considerable further funding and investment options. Everyone talks about investors being risk averse to SA companies. Well the company is tackling that head on by bringing in the one set of investors who know all about it, they being South Africans.

“Isn’t hoping”

@Sanchez after what I have just read in the Annual Report, 22.48p is a fraction of what this company will be worth by year end. The strength of the wording alone is enough. This company is ‘hoping’ it is stating that it is doing. It is stating that it has a very strong strategy in place across all its main platforms and that it is far further down the line than we appreciate. And all of that will be laid out on the table in the next 6 months. Just the mentioning of a dividend policy is enough to strongly signal just how advanced Mokopone, Lemur and BE are in terms of the funding arrangements they will need to real use their plans. You don’t signal a dividend policy if it’s 2 years away. Therefore it’s likely coming either this year or next. If that is the case one should be strongly asking oneself, how the company can be so sure that they can give cash back when there is so much to finance.

And on page 34 of the report we have our answer ; “In South Africa, demand for energy storage systems continues to rise, evidenced both by greater enquiries for provision of single-acid vanadium electrolyte or direct projects that require energy storage for at least four hours per day.” So BE is clearly receiving multiple enquires for both electrolyte off takes and projects, in SA. This despite the so called regulatory issues. “The new government in South Africa and the renewal of investor confidence has brought encouraging signs that suggests a move towards increased regulatory clarity over the treatment of energy storage, the renewable energy programme and the direction of the country's energy policy as published in the Department of Energy's Integrated Resource Plan.” The above statement is as clear a message as one could hope for, that the new IRP will recognize and include energy storage. We already know that MN is interacting with government through his role and leadership of the SAESA. So he has access to the government. Therefore that statement should be appreciated for the fact it strongly indicates.

Finally, it is very interesting to read that BE are playing a key part in trying to affect the minds of the SA government. Page 28 also states the following ; “Outside of Eskom, the source of both the largest opportunity and the risk to market development is regulatory.” “The IRP was set for an update in 2016 that was never approved by government and now it is stated for release in the second half of 2018” “Bushveld Energy has become one of the founding members of the South African Energy Storage Association (SAESA) and its CEO elected as the first chairman of the association. By working together with other stakeholders in the energy storage sector through SAESA, Bushveld Energy is able to support the South African government in ensuring a regulatory framework that supports the ability of energy storage and its users to improve the efficiency of South Africa’s power system.” Reading between the lines BE is central to the influence being brought to bear on the Energy Ministry and the revised IRP. The Energy Minister has already gone on record as supporting the idea of stand alone off grid power generation. That generation really needs energy storage, and that needs regulatory recognition. It is therefore most interesting that the BE update goes into say ; “there is also significant growth in the demand and attractive of the business case for “true hybrid” off-grid projects. Such projects replace existing (or planned) diesel and other types of liquid thermal generation (e.g. heavy fuel oil, jet oil) with solar PV and energy storage“ If energy storage appears in the IRP then it’s show time for BE in SA.

Ah but if all of that were not enough we have this little gem on page 28. “In addition to the Eskom 120kW/450kWh VRFB system, optimal sites for a large scale VRFB demonstration system of multiple megawatt hours are being developed in South Africa.” Now for those with a good memory there was always talk by BE of two demonstration batteries. The second it seems is alive and well.

If all of that weren’t enough then ladies and gentlemen we have the sleeping giant that is Bushveld Energy. Annual Report page 29 states amongst other things the following objectives for 2018. “1. Proving its capabilities and securing its position as a developer and integrator of utility scale energy storage projects by delivering its initial projects and securing large scale energy storage mandates in Africa; 2. Positioning itself as a key low cost electrolyte supplier and thus supporting the global industry while securing offtake agreements; and 3. Securing additional strategic relationships with downstream stakeholders in the global vanadium battery supply chain and electrical power developers and producers operating in Africa.” Those words add much more meat on the bones in terms of direction. It sounds very much like they are gunning for a binding tie up with UET but also PPA developers. Remember these are objectives for 2018, so Eskom must surely be too early given the need to test the battery. But they have their sights firmly set on someone that is for. And to finish it all off ; “Finally, the company expects in the second half of 2018 to be in a position to outline its business model, cash flow capabilities and valuation in Bushveld Minerals.” There is that business case model I have often referred to. That’s a key milestone and will be a very big day in BMN and it’s SP’s history. H2 2018 is looking like it’s going to send those doors into orbit.

What this also very much points towards is that Mokopone will highly likely be tied into a brownfield processor. One cannot keep talking up the cost benefits of brownfield and then simply go and announce a greenfield build with a $200m processor cost attached to it.

I am starting to get the feeling that the Annual Report was a cut off point, the drawing of a line in the sand, and thus a trigger point for 2018 to really begin. Annual Report page 22 “The Company continues to search for and evaluate complementary brownfield processing facilities close in proximity to its current resources.” “Bushveld Minerals intends to build its core processing capacity around brownfield processing infrastructure close in proximity to its primary vanadium resources. The attraction of brownfield processing facilities lies in the potential for significant reductions in capital expenditure and lead-time to achieve production.” Are they really trying to tell us that the search is still under way? Bear in mind the first quote appeared in the 2017 report (page 13) released as far back as August that year. That’s 10 months ago. You cannot intend such a proposal if you don’t have a very good idea that said proposal is achievable i.e. the brownfield is there and it’s available. Tick tock

I note that the Annusl Report actually contains a more thorough statement regarding shareholder returns. “Bushveld is committed to delivering attractive returns to its shareholders. During the second half of 2018, the Company will define a capital allocation framework, which will outline the Company’s approach towards shareholder returns, including a dividend policy designed to encourage capital efficiency, to support the Company’s growth initiatives while simultaneously rewarding investors.” So a dividend is on its way. . .

Share price pressure is building nicely as the market readies itself for the BMN reporting season. Lemur update and possible BFS just around the corner. Note the BFS was not listed in the CEO update and was scheduled for close by end of Q2 2018. https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9478J_-2018-4-5.pdf

@Loudspeaker i am of the opinion that they will simply feed off the signposted news flow from BMN to update their notes. Lemur - BE - Vanadium Platform Update. It will depend on the degree of progress with each but I fully expect them to hold off until the Vametco numbers are in. That said the Lemur BFS puts definitive numbers on the table, as does a business case for the electrolyte plant. Let’s see but I certainly see a staggered uplift in expected 2018 V prices from their end.

@Pennypusher as much as I would like to see it, I don’t believe we ever will. Things are moving faster than anticipated in the energy storage sector, therefore predicted timelines are being shortened on a regular basis. What has already been achieved this year will I am sure be gazumped next year. The mining side of the business is showing fantastic medium term profitability. But for me BMN becomes most desirable when those VRFBs and that electrolyte demonstrate that their market has arrived and is here to stay. Once that is achieved then the suitors will begin circling, knowing that BMN is an investment with longevity. That a good percentage of that high grade V of their has a good chance of being mined, and the energy business has a long term customer base. Then the price tag will be worth paying but I doubt it will be as high as the top end figures you have employed. I said a few months back I thought late 2019 was about when the suitors would begin to circle. I may be a year or so out, it depends on BMN’s progress, but what I am certain of is that it’s coming. This sector is just too big and has too much potential for a business like BMN to be ignored forever. They have the best V resources in the world with a fledgling electrolyte arm and VRFB business, and that makes them front and centre the best target when said arms begin to show their worth. In my opinion ‘.