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@Faramog I was going to answer your reply earlier but it seems FM beat me to it. Note that FM clearly states in the interview that the simplification of the organizational structure is specifically designed to allow greater access to the “Vametco cash flows” So it’s 100% Sojitz and it’s on it’s way. PS FM is talking like a man who see’s a share price in the pounds not the penned, and from what he has clearly detailed, it will happen once all the pieces are firmly in place.

@Faramog I disagree. The rise is going to happen in steps starting with the Q2 numbers and it is those numbers coupled with prices that will start to push this north. But I believe what’s really going to send things crazy is the declaration of what BE means for the business and how it will be implemented. That is the key catalyst backed up by a very solid Vametco mining business, which will give the BE information a very healthy and much higher springboard from which to leap higher. The Mining Charter is already proven as having little or nothing to do with BMN even in its current form because all mining right applications are already in play and the BEE numbers are in the main, well above even the revised 30%. If it indeed makes it through the negotiations. I believe very strongly that even seasoned LTHs are greatly underestimating what the SP will achieve in H2 this year, with the ammo that is behind it.

@Sanchez indeed and there are many more complications that affect the numbers, such as the exchange rate. My very simple update to the SP Angel figure was merely designed to show that using their figures, means the SP must be near 60% higher from here for just that one uplift in the average V price. A result that in terms of V prices for 2018, is as good as achieved. Then start adding in everything else. . .

@ Knuttie et al. Yes but one can’t stop the inevitable happening. Personally I am pinching myself right now over what my brain is logically telling me is going to happen here. BMN is not only a very good stock pick, it’s a kingmaker. It’s the share to own as it enters a hand changing period of development. On the simple side of things, one more week of $82 Vanadium and the year average (BMN 1 month lag) will hit $65 per kg. That’s after 33 weeks, or 63.5% of the year. Done, achieved, booked. Given the current price sits at $82 and is backed by not one but multiple strong signals that it will not only be maintained but will drive higher, then it is a safe bet to say that the expected average should start from $65 per kg. Now investors can dig out SP Angel as they please but they will follow the trend and their figures do signal where they are heading. At $50 per kg for 2018 they upped their valuation to circa 25p. Assuming that circa 5p of this valuation was for the other assets in the group, then we have a 20p valuation for Vametco. At their stated operating costs of circa $23,000, that means a gross cash position of $27,000 per ton. Increasing that by $15,000 means a 56% increase, which translates to a revised SP of 31.2p for Vametco plus the 5p for the other assets, makes 36.2p. That’s merely a starter for 10 based purely on an average 2018 price of just $65 per kg. When one considers what sits within that 5p valuation, everything that is with BE to do, Mokopone, Brits, and let us not forget Lemur, which is about to deliver the key point in its value recognition. When one further considers what each of these elements will deliver in 2018, then that 5p will come under severe pressure, conservative or not. Then to top it all off, prices are driving higher, Sojitz and brownfield bubble nicely in the background, and a dividend policy will soon be communicated. A clear and sizeable re-rate is inevitable it last only the when that is left to answer.

@McMuff your choice of language in my opinion leaves much to be desired. It is unnecessarily provocative and demonstrates a lack of understanding of the information available. This information was clearly communicated, as it always is, in the Dec 2017 Annual Report (dated 29th June) page 85. So it’s not new news for those that have read the accounts. Furthermore, the previous Annual Report 2017, page 58 stated under special resolution 8 : “and issue (or grant rights to subscribe for, or to convert any security into) up to 250 million shares” At that time there were circa 807m shares in issue, so the resolution was for roughly the same 30% we see this year. So a common policy. BMN share price on 14th Aug 2017 stood at 9.5p. Since then the company has diluted shareholders (partly through previously agreed warrants) to the tune of 272m new shares. For that we have acquired a majority stake in Vametco, expanded its production by some 36% and commenced further expanding it by another 45%, brought the coal platform to the point of true value realisation, agreed and installed a VRFB at Eskom, planned and instigated a 200MWh electrolyte plant, demerged dilutive tin assets, and raised some £15m in funds to attack the next phase of the conpany’s expansion. BMN share price today 22.5p. A 136% increase in value, and that let’s be frank does not tell the full story because we should could easily be talking double that once the production figures/H1 figures land, both of which need no further physical progress or investment to be achieved. If that’s a sign of what 30% dilution truly means, then bring on the next 30%. And if investors cannot see all that beautiful wood for the trees, then that is their issue. If investors don’t read the information available thoroughly then they only create doubt for themselves, and that in turn brings ill informed decision making based on perception and not reality.

For those who are still wondering what BE is and will be, the accounts clearly state on page 5 ; “An energy storage project developer and component manufacturer.” “This includes the development and operation of a vanadium electrolyte production plant to supply to South African and international VRFB projects.” So to be absolutely clear the electrolyte plant comes under BE. With that plant they can leverage investment and share in the other key elements of VRFB development. Thus a binding agreement with the likes of UET is far more achievable, if not a given. Also on page 6 there are two very telling hints of what is to come from BE. “Ownership of processing capacity at Vametco means that we can optimise electrolyte production through an in-stream processing flow design giving the company significant cost advantages.” One should not underestimate the word significant in that sentence. It’s presence means they not only already know the cost savings are achievable but that it positions them as likely the cheapest electrolyte producer on the planet. Nobody else out there is as far down the line in terms of an intergrated model, and the cost of the Vanadium input is itself significant, which brings me nicely into the next quote ; “With vanadium making up >40% of the cost of the VRFBs and scope for sourcing other components of the VRFBs locally, the company will deploy battery systems with the highest local content of any technology in South Africa.” The highest local content of any technology in South Africa. That would place them right at the front if the queue for any SOE, which means Eskom. It also guarantees that they have more than enough local content to enter the SADC. I have written on this before here. 13 of thd 15 member states of the SADC have a free trade agreement so long as the local content element meets a minimum level. The highest local content technology in SA meets that level. Locally manufactured VRFBs gives BE, UET and the SA government access to the SADC. A group of countries I might as that don’t own vanadium assets or manufacture electrolyte, but very much need more energy that does not rely on transmission lines or power stations that they don’t have. Imagine the day when it is all in place, what a fully intergrated story it will be.

@faramog as far as the 2017 accounts state it has not yet taken place but is clearly defined as one of 4 strategies for Bushveld Minerals (the parent company) in 2018. That’s the whole point right there, it’s one of 4 and 2 of the others are the redemption of the Atlas Convertible Bond and floating on the JSE. So we are not talking small fry developments. It’s for me 100% Sojitz but as to why it hasn’t yet taken place I cannot say, but it is scheduled for H2 2018 at the latest. As to what it is, if can only really be Sojitz because it is clearly stated as being instigated to obtain greater access to cash flows, and right now they only come out of Vametco.

@Daisan I agree. It has though always been this way with BMN. For me (and you I suspect) I can very much live with this as fundamentally they keep on hitting big milestones and make it look easy. They say the plant remains on track to produce electrolyte in 2019, and we have every right to believe it will be achieved, and that goes a very long way in the investment world.

(Sorry posted before I had finished) They have already started the phase 3 expansion. Therefore given the timescales it looks at first glance very much like this EIA is for the next expansion phase, the decision for which we were told (up until now), was yet to be taken. If what I am thinking is true then it has been decided and it’s merely a case of delivering it to the market. Let’s be clear though, in this pricing environment and with the ability to achieve it at Vametco, the decision is a formality.

Well considering what BE/BMN has just achieved, that is one heck of an understated explanation. The battery and electrolyte progress aside, which I too am delighted with the punctuality of. The most yelling lines for me were these ; “An EIA is also required for the chemicals plant that will be co-located with Bushveld's existing mining and processing facility at the Vametco vanadium mine. This application will be combined with Vametco's overall expansion application” I was not aware that Vametco required a EIA for its expansion to 5,000 mtv. It has never been mentioned and they have already started

@AlastairMcGrift I have no doubt that the Mokopone Mining right, in this pricing environment, will have a substantial impact on BMN’s fortunes. But for me it has become too great a focal point by contributors here. The coming of age of the BE platform will for me dwarf the expected near term developments at Mokopone. Remember BMN with a clearly defined BE will be a giant leap closer to its fully integrated model, and it will be the very first. There is a very good reason why MN is chair of the Vanitec Energy Storage Committee and why his face is leading their campaign on Twitter. BMN is front and centre the leader of the pure play Vanadium producers and the shining light for all would be pure plays to come.

MN as already talked up BE being he biggest contributor to BMN in terms of earnings, so he already had a good idea where it was going and what was being negotiated, so think on and prepare yourselves, because it’s going to demonstrate itself as unlocking a very big pot of energy storage gold, and the market will for me love it.

There are two very important pages in the Annual Report, which between them deliver a very clear message. Page 16 states : “We see 2018 as a transformational year for Bushveld Energy. Development work to date is expected to yield results in the form of: 1) Proving the Company’s capabilities and securing its position as a developer and integrator of utility scale energy storage projects by delivering its initial projects and securing large scale energy storage mandates in Africa; 2) Positioning itself as a key electrolyte supplier, by supporting the global industry through the low cost production of electrolyte while securing offtake agreements; and 3) Securing additional strategic relationships with downstream stakeholders in the global vanadium battery supply chain and electrical power developers and producers operating in Africa. With these developments, the company will be in a position to outline its business model, cash flow capabilities and valuation contribution within Bushveld Minerals.” (A) Then on page 27 the company states these same 3 strategies but one key additional piece of information : “Finally, the company expects in the second half of 2018 to be in a position to outline its business model, cash flow capabilities and valuation in Bushveld Minerals.” (B) So what the last statement (B) is saying is that all of the strategies listed on page 16 will be achieved in H2 2018. That’s because the last statement on page 16 (A) clearly states that these developments are needed in order to deliver the BE “business model, cash flow capabilities and valuation contribution within BMN” So that means at least 1. 2 VRFBs because the Annual Report clearly states there is a second much bigger demonstration project planned. 2. Large scale energy storage mandates, so actual projects and of size. 3. The sign off of the electrolyte plant for construction. 4. Off take agreements for electrolyte. 5. Binding strategic agreements with UET because it effectively states as much when talking about VRFB supply chain, and those cash flows etc cannot be defined without an agreement with UET. Plus either Eskom, PPA developers or similar. For the company to state that they expect to be able means they are very far along with these goals. They may not come in the Q2 update but they are coming. We are talking actual information including actual contracts with a clear path to actual planned production, with clear costs to execute that can be valued. And that will be taking place in parallel to what we are witnessing in the mining side of the business. The company has already dropped very clear hints. They are talking about dividend policy, so they know where they are with costs with regards to BE. MN as already talked up BE being he biggest contributor to BMN in terms of earnings, so he already had a good idea where it was going and what was being negoti

@Sanchez599 I suspect that a great many investors are itching to commit here but just need the right excuse. The BE update is expected this week and it may not have all of what we would like to see in it, but it may well be enough to push the price into its next phase of substantial growth.

@Daisan yes what is unfolding in the Vanadium space is quite a story. What I find most telling here is not just that prices have reached nearly $90, but that the prices have moved by their greatest margin when the prices were already so high. It is something that I posted about a number of months ago. The idea being that as prices reached $65-70 the price rises would likely become more significant because a 5% shift at $70 is far bigger than at say $30. That said I did not for one minute expect to see a week where prices jumped by so much. To place that in perspective, in 2015 when we were all discussing the possibility and name of BMN’s brownfield target, FeV prices stood at circa $13 per kg. Prices in China just rose by almost that in just one week. We have come very far for certain.

@Alfacomp and Gambit. I very much look forward to your commentary from Lausanne today, and would like to thank you for not only attending but also your willingness to share your findings with us here.

And for those with any doubts as to just how strong a year BE is planning, its well worth a re-read if page 16 of the latest financial report ; “We see 2018 as a transformational year for Bushveld Energy. Development work to date is expected to yield results in the form of: 1) Proving the Company’s capabilities and securing its position as a developer and integrator of utility scale energy storage projects by delivering its initial projects and securing large scale energy storage mandates in Africa; 2) Positioning itself as a key electrolyte supplier, by supporting the global industry through the low cost production of electrolyte while securing offtake agreements; and 3) Securing additional strategic relationships with downstream stakeholders in the global vanadium battery supply chain and electrical power developers and producers operating in Africa. With these developments, the company will be in a position to outline its business model, cash flow capabilities and valuation contribution within Bushveld Minerals.” For those that know BMN, such words are presented as ideas or wishes, they are a signposted path to what is expected and will be delivered.

@Loudspeaker it’s quite extraordinary what we are witnessing here. 5 weeks into BMN’s Q3 and the average price of FeV in Europe is a whopping $75.70, mid price. It is important to appreciate just how significant this surge in Q3 is. If Vametco is able to deliver a 15% uplift in production in Q2, so circa 850 mtv, then at 1,580 mtv and average prices of $61,500 per mtv, Vametco will generate $97min revenues. However, to meet the 2018 guidance Vametco needs to hit 2,000 mtv in H2. Therefore if the current average of $75.70 is maintained, then Vametco revenues in H2 will jump to over $150m. As we know the new rebar regs are due to begin influencing things in late Q3, so the $75.70 has every chance of being a base case. It’s a base case I will be more than happy with that is for sure. If all of that weren’t enough, we have a BE update coming this week, and it could well be the point at which the market begins to understand just what BE is about and what it can achieve. If it includes those electrolyte numbers then things will get very interesting around here. Whatever the outcome it’s going to be another big week in the world of BMN and Vanadium.

I don’t appear to have received the latest news letter despite subscribing some time ago. Does someone have a copy available to post here. Thank you in advance.

@Nickd that’s it, it’s official, the doors have come off completely. Stand by your beds!