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@Endion I would like to start by saying that for me the Mokopone license is a sideshow to what will unfold here over the next 12 months, bevit a world class one. In my opinion the Mokopone license has no connection whatsoever to the new mining charter. As it was already applied for the new proposed charter, in its current and by no means guaranteed form, has absolutely no affect on it whatsoever. The only element that could affect Mokopone is the raiding of the BEE component to 30%. But seeing as Mokopone already has 36% BEE compliant ownership, even that is a non starter. The Mokopone license is being put through a process that averages over 3 years. It currently sits at 3 years and circa 4 months. It is therefore in the ball park of pending or are I say imminent. But as I say, it isn’t a show stopper here by any means. What investors should reay be asking themselves, is how is Brits going to supply Vametco when it is partially owned by different BEE partners? Will it be a supply off take or an outright sale? Because given there is little need for a detailed mine plan, mine construction, or major capital raising and expenditure, Brits will highly likely be in production well before Mokopone, even if that license lands tomorrow. It should not have gone unnoticed that the cores are being tested at Vametco. So there is already a link in play. Question is where is it heading?

My own very personal view is that contributors here should spend less time worrying about SP Angel’s view and more time focusing and analyzing the fundamentals that got us here is the first place. When the SP was on its knees here, but we were nevertheless busy debating and concluding the potential of BMN, there was no SP Angel. There were no brokers targets. We had to do it all ourselves, but we succeeded anyway. When this board was concluding what BMN was going to acquire, before they had even given a sniff of their move, there was no SP Angel agreeing or disagreeing with us, because they didn’t even know who BMN was. But we succeeded anyway. In early 2016, when we were busy concluding that FeV was going to hit $60, $70, $80 per kg, there was no SP Angel telling us $30 or even $50 was our lot. But we succeeded anyway. So why on earth is their view point now given so much air time. That they can influence elements of the markets for a time is perhaps true, but does it really matter?because in the end it’s just a fleeting moment in time that demonstrates a chase rather than a lead. They can’t control the trajectory of this company and they likely cannot see what for some of us are clearly the next fundamental steps forward for this company, and that’s not their game nor their fault. I personally have no grudge against what SP Angels do or what they conclude. I read their analysis and I take from it what I need to strengthen or to test my own analysis, and that’s as far as it goes. If I followed them more closely, I highly likely would never have got anywhere close to the sort of returns I am now witnessing. In my opinion, you don’t truly win in this game by following the trail, you win by laying it.

@Daitom well we all have our own ideas on what Vametco is actually costing to run. My operating cost figure stands at ZAR 250 a ton, which at the current near as damn it year to date exchange of ZAR 12,50, is $20,000 per ton. I would allow $4,000 per ton for the expansion programne, so tough all in figure for 2018 is $24,000 per mtv. That figure though would cover all costs for the full 3 phases, which isn’t quite correct given they started in 2017. That said it’s a fairly safe figure which I like. At that cost and maintaining the $77.70 per kg mid price until year end, then at 3,680 mtv Vametco is producing over $172m in EBITDA. For me any potential shortcomings on the operating cost side can easily be countered by the US and Nitrovan premiums. So that $172mlooking very good. In pound terms that’s £125m. are more than

Good afternoon all. The publishing of last Friday’s Vanadium prices compelled me to share some very favorable numbers as I currently see them. If one takes the company’s words as gospel, then sales are lagging 4 weeks behind prices. Whilst this 4 weeks cannot 100% guaranteed, it is certainly close enough to allow a guide figure to be generated and followed. That means that whilst we may be still awaiting the Q2 update, BMN is in fact already 9 weeks into its Q3. Thus the year is effectively 35 weeks or, for ease, 67% complete. That’s significant because the certainty of the outcome for this year is far greater than perhaps some appreciate. The current average European mid price for BMN (4 week lag) in Q3 is a whopping $77.70 per kg. If we consider the US as well, then there it is even higher at $81.60 per kg. In terms of Europe, that place the year average (mid price only) at $65.70 per kg (H1 was $61.50). But that’s purely a base case figure. To this should be added the US premiums currently being enjoyed and of course the Nitrovan premium. But what is even more remarkable about Q3 is that it is the first full period whereby production should see a marked increase. My own personal Q2 production sits at between 10-15% higher than Q1. I believe the company will want to show a steady purposeful affect from the expansion programme. That places Q2 at 800-850 mtv and total year to date at circa 1,530 - 1,580 mtv. What that means is that Q3 and Q4 will need to deliver around 2,100 mtv to meet the current year’s guidance of 3,680 mtv. A guidance that was reiterated as recently as 6th June. This creates a situation whereby the company will have delivered a very strong H1 of circa 1,580 mtv at $61.50 per kg average. But will be in the process of delivering a further 2,100 mtv at a current base case average of $77.70 per kg. A quick calculation says that’s $97.2m in revenues versus $163.2m and rising. That’s a 68% increase, base case. Now one can adjust this figures and include other factors, but the fundamental difference stands and is only further compounded, once the other premiums are included. H1 will be an eye opener for the market I am sure, given BMN’s to date ‘nothing’ balance sheet. However, with FeV prices holding strong in August at $82 per kg, a move which in itself is very significant, H2 is shaping up to deliver something truly extraordinary, given it will be delivered inside 2 years from the original purchase of the plant.

One last point.

It is all the more interesting that this tweet was sent out today. It is almost as if the excitement got the better of someone at BMN, and they just had to get the message out there as soon as they were allowed too.

Something else very much worthy of note. CSP Projects of the type that has now been abandoned for a battery storage project, were part of the last draft IRP, despite the fact that they are very expensive. Well this move once again clearly demonstrates the improvement in the governance of Eskom and their desire to develop technologies that will make them better.

With Eskom already making this move, it is another clear sign that battery storage will be included in the IRP. See my posts of yesterday as to why that is so significant to BMn and us as shareholders.

I will say it again because I can't quite believe I am saying it. It looks like BE are going to shortly sign off on a "large scale energy storage mandate with Eskom. One that has dislodged CSP. . . Wow!

Having seen the tweet from Bushveld Minerals this morning , I felt compelled to continue my discussion with MiddleEastMoney.

I read the ESI Africa yesterday and of course immediately thought of Bushveld Energy because it is certainly in the frame if a battery storage project is available.

But now we have this tweet from Bushveld Minerals, which unless I am mistaken is strongyl indicating that the project in that article, will involve a VRFB.

With what we know now, let's remind ourselves of the BE 2018 strategy ;

"Development work to date is expected to yield results in the form of ;"

"securing large scale energy storage mandates in Africa;"

"Securing additional strategic relationships with downstream stakeholders in the global vanadium battery supply chain and electrical power developers and producers operating in Africa"

A large scale battery storage project with Eskom for me was always the most likely front end goal, though the testing regime for the BE battery led me to think it was soem way off. I am trying to convince myself not to join the dots too easily, but then that tweet joins them all too easy.

RedT just declared 80MWh in the next 2 years. BE could be about to declare upto 400MWh in the next 12 months.

@Martyboy it’s important to remember that right now there is no requirement to implement the new charter because it is only in draft form and has not been signed off by the government. There is also no guarantee that the 30% ownership will remain in place. Therefore the existing 26% rule still applies although to be clear even that remains voluntary, as some companies continue to operate with far lower BEE levels. However any respectable and well governed mining company is applying the 26% as good practice. The SPD Vanadium Project like Mokopone and Vametco, comes under the already applied for umbrella. Therefore, if and it is a big if, the new charter passes in its current form, then such projects would have up to 5 years to update their ownership levels to 30%. What that all clearly demonstrates is that the decision to buyout Sojitz, really has nothing to do with the charter, and if and when ready, will happen independent of that potential change in policy. As for the Mokopone Mining right, for me one should not try to over complicate things anymore than necessary. The Mokopone Mining right is in my opinion being held up purely by the DMR’s lengthy process. There are several other good examples out there that demonstrate that 3 years is actually around about the time it takes. As a means of placing that in context, it takes between 7-10 years to get a mining right in the United States. Hence Prophecy’s rhetoric regarding its belief that the US government will somehow fast track minerals on its critical list, something there is very little evidence of to date. Without that boost, Prophecy could be waiting a very long time. I trust this helps.

@MiddleEast Money if you don't mind I am going to refrain from answering your question for the time being because there is so much that needs to be defined in order to answer the question properly.

My focus is on the remainder of this year and the lead up to final results at the end of June 2019. By that point we should have a very good idea of what BE is about and what it will deliver for BMN shareholders. We should also have a very good view of where vanadium prices are and what we can expect in 2020, when BMN will enjoy it first full year at minimum 5,000 mtv. Plus Lemur's journey will likely have run its course.

What I do feel very strongly though is that this year will turn out to be the year that VRFBs truly arrived. I have always believed in the strength of the technology and the world's growing desire for it. However, it is the first 6 months of this year that for me have really cemented my belief that there is no way back.

I also feel very strongly that BE is going to deliver on a scale that many perhaps still haven't fathomed. The RedT deal is a very good example of what is very quickly happening in the VRFB space. Not only is it in Germany and Austria but it involves Secondary Control Reserve to the German grid, which is a very significant move indeed.

The deal looks good but it is spread over a number of years, although I fully expect implementation of the further projects to be sped up, as the technology proves its merits and gains further exposure. My prediction though is BE will announce a deal with Eskom that will blow that particular deal right out of the water. They are definitely hinting at it and if the IRP delivers as I believe it will, then the market in SA could literally explode.

BE have every chance of being the lead supplier to Eskom in a world where all REIPPs must include energy storage.

I feel confident that whatever the path of V prices over the next 4-5 years, the company should be able to deliver consistent profits of £50m plus. But that should be the lesser of the two profit streams given what I have just said about BE.

We also should not forget that the company is planning to take a lead role in assembling and manufacturing VRFBs in SA, which should be well within play in that time frame.

This is a very exciting company for sure.

@Alfacomp yes fat fingers unfortunately lead to false prints sometimes. I don’t blame Yellow Dragon selling down a percentage of their holding. At 23p they hold over £18m of equity in BMN, which is substantial.

I try not to get myself too involved in the chat about share selling etc because in the end it has no real long term affect on my investment. That said if one refers to the Junior Indaba presentation from June 2018, one will see that as of 32st May Yellow Dragon held circa 79.77m shares in BMN. On the company website it is stated that as of 30th June 2018 they held circa 71.76m So whatever else is happening Yellow Dragon have made a partial sell down in June of 8m shares. Whether they are selling now or not I don’t know but at least the more regulat shareholder holdings I updated will allow shareholders who care to, to keep track.

@Sanchez599 whilst I am prone to the odd period of impatience, I am as confident as i can ever be right now about what is coming to pass here. Things may come bit by bit or all in one whack, it doesn’t really matter. What’s important is it’s all clearly coming. I foresee a good Christmas here.

It is also important to realize that Brits lies within the North West province, the third problem area highlighted in that article. But as stated it looks very much like the problems are now being tackled head on.

@Sanchez599 I don’t believe hope comes into it.

@Sanchez599 here is a more informative article that explains the current actions and problems the DMR is having. What this article states is the administrative operations have been relocated to head office at Pretoria, which for me indicates that they will have better governance. It is also interesting to read the comments regarding these actions being taken due to comments received during the Charter discussions. So it looks very much like positive steps are being made and perhaps Mokopone isn’t all that far away after all. https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/mantashe-weeding-out-corruption-mineral-resources

It’s important to remember that whilst Mokopone is a to die for Vanadium project, in terms of its competitors around the world, it will likely be gazumped by Brits. The company has already started that the initial results from Brits look very good. If they are anywhere close to that historical 2.6% figure, then the company has a mind knowingly good project on its hands. Given it is next to Vametco and much closer to established transport links, it would be the right way to go if the timelines are favorable enough. Remember Vametco has the labour, plant, services, offices, canteens, toilets, you name it, right next door. Nobody has to travel, nobody needs to lay new cables, water supplies etc etc. The Brits resource is big enough to keep us and our great great grandchildren in dividends, so it’s never about having enough resource. I know others have other thoughts on this, and I respect that. The above is just my opinion on what makes logical sense if the timelines suit. In an ideal world we will have all 3.

@Sanchez599 whilst that is a nice thought it simply isn’t possible. BMN can hold back on reporting many things but they can’t delay the declaration of a mining right. For the record BMN is actually waiting on two Mining right applications, because Brits came with one much like the SPD Project got Tandon Resources. It’s important to remember that the DMR is not one entity, it is a series of regional offices. Some are better than others Unfortunately Limpopo is arguably the worst. It is for that reason that I personally have parked the Mokopone Vanadium Project in the nice to have category. I say this because the drive to deliver a resource and hopefully a simplified mining plan at Brits, will be the catalyst for the move to 10,000 mtv. I don’t see Mokopone being needed for that to happen. At 10,000 mtv BMN would be the biggest pure play FeV producer in the world and would deliver me as an investor, riches beyond my dreams. I want to see that mining right, I want to see Mokopone delivered, but I don’t believe I need it for my investment to be the greatest of my lifetime.

I have somehow managed to edit out a section of my last post. The Hors d’ouerves i was referring to was the estimated 2000MW initial energy storage needs that Eskom has publicly declared.

Thank you for posting the article Alfacomp. I have been banging the drum somewhat about this subject and this article is again further strong evidence of where the IRP is heading. Someone posted on here a few days ago the thought that the reaching out to the Chinese was perhaps based on political aspirations. I personally do not see it that way. The renewed leadership of the energy and public enterprises ministries, and with them Eskom, has brought about good governance. With that we can expect that these branches of the government will look to implement ideas and strategies that make sense for the country. i.e.sensible logical decision making. Eskom has to raise its funding and the Chinese are willing. It may come with a cost but the SA government and Eskom are paying for previous poor governance. Energy storage is a very sensible and logical development for both Eskom and SA’s economy. This message is being gradually but clearly delivered by those leading these departments and Eskom. Observers of SA politics and Eskom over the last few years, will be forgiven for being cautious or indeed expecting them to continue to fail. But in these departments at least, Ramaphosa has the control he needs to implement his plans, and for me it is clear that energy storage is a part of that. Given the statements being made in that article by Mr Radebe, I cannot see how the IRP, a plan that is designed to shape SA energy needs for the next 30 years, can possibly be released without energy storage included. And that would only be the hors d’oeuvres. Throw in an expectation that all new REIPP project tenders must include energy storage, and it’s sonic boom time at BMN House. Investors should not underestimate the impact the new IRP could have here. It’s a big moment in BMN’s development.

I would also like to add that those goals for 2018 when achieved, will make the BMN proposition a far more convincing one that is already. The reaction of the market to Largo Resources (see my post from earlier this morning), demonstrates what can be achieved by BMN the miner, when the Cashflow us clearly demonstrated. So that’s boost number 1. But imagine what the likes of Mr Cooperman will be saying when they discover there is not only a stronger and larger proposition out there, but that it carries a direct access to the multi billion dollar energy storage market. What that interview and reaction from the market demonstrated, is how under appreciated the strength of the Vanadium market is today. So imagine what will happen when the energy storage market for VRFBs is clearly demonstrated, the costs, the profits, the contracts, and then combine it with that mining success. Vanadium is a $3 billion market, but the energy storage proposition could/should be up to $70 billion. Demonstrate that that market is reachable, obtainable, then the spark is lit and it’s simply about awaiting the reaction of a market that is far slower to wake up to these things than contributors here give it credit for. The boom will be sonic.

@Daisydog I do not wish to sound anything other than helpful when I say to you, that you should take some time out to fully read the December 2017 Annual Report again. To say we have had no newsflow when that document is available is simply not correct. That report clearly sets out the achievements and more importantly the goals for 2018. To date the BOD of BMN have delivered to the point that no well researched contributor here, really, has the right to say that they will fail with their goals for this year. That some deadlines could be missed is a given because that is life. External factors and stakeholders mean that a company doing its very best still sometimes will miss well intended delivery dates. But knowing BMN as we do, it is highly likely that these goals were always reachable and planned. Remember it is us shareholders that believe the Sojitz situation should have been announced by now, not the company that has promised it. I expect the Q2 figures by the end of the week, most likely tomorrow. Let’s see how that shakes things up around here. The Lemur BFS should also land fairly soon. All other big items will land as soon as they are ready. My own personnel view is that H2 will be an incredibly busy time for the company and the SP, and that we are now right at the end of this current lull in SP progress.