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@Loudspeaker I hear what you are saying but that isn’t their form to date. Their projection is ‘only’ running $15 or so behind the yearly average, so they will most likely lift it in bite sizes. It won’t of course all matter in the end because the average will be what it will be. After today’s pricing updates I have the BMN year to date mid price average (1 month reported lag sales v prices) at $64.30 per kg. That’s 30 weeks into the year. The calendar year average price is even higher. Since the start of BMN’s H2 the US mid price is averaging $77.50. These numbers are so big and so regular that they are often lost on many investors. But at 58% of the year booked, the pending result for BMN will be seismic.

@pb940 it is directors talk . net

@Squirtyflower a strong start but surely only the very beginning. The company after all just confirmed it now has a confirmed 3,750 mtv capacity at a time when prices are circa $74 per kg. Even the most rudimentary of calculations tells one that the valuation is simply far too low based on just those 2 details alone. Given what else is coming, this should re-rate substantially this month.

@Loudspeaker yes I understand and a fine job you are doing of keeping tabs on prices too. The US prices are for me very important given so much produce gets shipped there.

Without wishing to stir the already thick SP Angel pot, here is an interesting update following the BMN results. https://www.*************.net/bushveld-minerals-vanadium-production-expansion-on-time-and-within-budget-says-sp-angel/ The important thing for me is not to simply take the headline figure as negative press, but to appreciate what that headline figure is based upon and thus what it means for their future broker targets. I will however admit that they do themselves no favours with stating current prices are $73.50 but yearly average is $49.91 per kg. However, that if anything should give well researched PIs much heart, because it shows their efforts can be bettered and that we are ahead of the ball. They are using a $49.91 per kg average price for 2018. This despite the fact the average thus far is circa $63 and the current price moving into the calendar H2 is circa $74 per kg. What that means is prices would have to reverse almost over night to circa $35 per kg and stay there. They know that’s not going to happen, so what I expect is to see their 2018 gradually increased, starting most likely in and around the Q2 update. I think initially they will go for $55 per kg and thus the broker target will increase to around 29.5p on Vametco alone. The trouble is Lemur and Bushveld Energy and possibly Brits will all update prior to this, which may force valuations to be added to each of these platforms, thus driving the target safely into the 30s. The average price is highly likely up to $10 to light but that will come as the year develops. The important factor is that the prices are that high and that all brokers will inevitably catch up.

@Loudspeaker good morning. Perhaps this will help. Where China goes eventually Europe and the US must follow. V205 Spot price is at $17.25 per lb. https://twitter.com/vanadiumworld/status/1013610736507998208?s=21 For anyone with any doubts, BMN is on the cusp of another significant bull run. We may or may not receive an RNS this week but if we do, I would be bold as to call this the Lemur week.

Sorry I meant SquirtyFlower of course.

@SQ yes that’s production costs only, which is mining and processing. What I am attempting to get to the bottom of is the operating cost which triggers the EBITDA.

Please scratch and call a doctor as I made a blinding error in my last post. To achieve $40,760 per mtv, Vametco needs to achieve a cost of just $19,240 per mtv. So what FM is saying is that the current operating cost is some $1,000 lower than 2017, despite the weakening of the Rand. Remember FM said at current costs. So that is the starter for 10. That’s very low indeed.

@Alphacomp just picking up on your response to my post from this morning. Here’s a couple interesting numbers for you to chew over. Revenues in 2017 ZAR 1,052 billion against 2,721 mtv sold. EBITDA ZAR 318m. At a reported 2017 average exchange of ZAR 13.3 to the dollar, the revenues equate to an average sale price of $29,070 per mtv. The average price of V in 2017 was $33,000 per mtv. But one must remember that there is an approximate 1 month lag between sales and prices. Therefore the average realised V price was in fact lower than $33,000 per mtv, as it must factor in at least a month at the end of 2016. That aside the EBITDA equates to circa $8,790 per mtv. Therefore Vametco in 2017 achieved all in operating costs of circa $20,280 per mtv. This despite the fact that the operation was only able to produce 2,649 mtv. Of course production costs have lowered since then but these are effectively cancelled out by the movement in the exchange rate from ZAR 13.30 to 12.25. Still we should see further gains on this front as the true influence of the new management and expansion plans come to pass. I believe the operating figure will be higher this year as phase 3 must be factored in. But there is plenty of wriggle room. What is more reassuring is that FM stated EBITDA of $150m for 2018 was achievable at circa $60 per kg. To hit that figure Vametco needs to achieve EBITDA of $40,760 per mtv. That figure very conveniently places the operating cost at $20,240 per mtv. That’s just $40 difference from the 2017 figure. Yet more evidence of what Vametco is capable of and what average prices of $63 of more really mean for 2018, and $63 is looking more and more likely to be a bottom end figure for this year. One need only fast forward to this time next year to see this figure become the reality that it is already well on its way to being. Then think what that will inevitably mean for the SP.

@Richken kind words and appreciated. It will no doubt take more than £6.4m to Prise Sojitz share out of their hand and equity in BMN is clearly a strong option. The RNS gives as much information away as it dares without upsetting the process for which it was intended. It is therefore no coincidence that Mr Meyer was there to push any doubts we’ll and truly over the line. The company could not say it but he could. There is a perceived delay to the conclusion of this deal but it should be noted that it has been only 3 months since the equity raise was announced. That’s not that long given the cash Vametco is generating in 2018. But to be clear, we are discussing something that is a nice to have, be it a very nice to have. Significant returns will be made by all current shareholders without ever successfully taking out Sojitz. What that deal does is simply make a very good story into an even better one. The same goes for Mokopone although the rhetoric in the accounts is strengthening towards Mokopone. What these accounts do is once again reinforce what will take place over the next 12 months or so. That 3,680 mtv is very much, that phase 3 is underway, and that there is even more to come medium term. If one trust’s that the Vanadium supply shortage is real, then the two combined are enough to deliver a major re-rate (in time) and the sizeable returns that go with it. Whilst we wait we can enjoy any number of other bonus developments along the way. Remember Vametco post 2018 is going to have some $150m of cash flow to reinvest in any number of ways. That’s major firepower indeed.

@Richken whilst the RNS regarding the equity placement does not specifically state we are going to buy out Sojitz, in my view the wording can only really lead to that one conclusion. Vametco is the only effective source of cash flow that BMN has. There the cash raised is to simplify a corporate layer directly attributable to Vametco. There is no other organizational or corporate structure involved in that business whose removal would ; a. Enable access to the underlying cash flows and ; b. Would cost £6.4m to remove. It may be taking longer than planned but BMN have raised cash to help take out Sojitz, whether they say it directly or not. This is further backed up by John Meyer in an interview just a few days after the placement. Remember his team led the cash raise. Sojitz is the easiest and most direct route that BMN have to increased Vanadium production. Faster than brownfield and certainly a lot quicker than Mokopone. It may have hit a snag or it may be just about the details, but BMN raised the cash so they must have been confident in late March. Whatever the case Sojitz is/was very much in their headlights.

I see, i presume that is a LSE glitch once more.

I could have sworn I posted twice this morning but my first post has now disappeared.

@Sanchez yes and then as the company stated onto 10,000 mtv in the ‘medium term’

“Since acquisition, the Vametco group has contributed £2.2 million of revenue and £637,680 of profit. Had the acquisition taken place at the start of the period, the Vametco group would have contributed approximately ZAR 877m (~£52m) of revenue and ZAR 146m (~£9m) of profit before tax from the Vametco operations, based on 10 months pro-rating of the audited results of Bushveld Vametco Holdings for the period.” That’s the strength of Vametco right there. 10 months of a yearly production figure of 2,649 mtv, so let’s say very simply 2,207 mtv. At an average yearly price of just $33 per kg, Vametco at 59.1% ownership would have delivered £9m pre tax profits. Current anticipated production 3,680 and average yearly price to date circa $63 per kg and rising. Simply Wow.

This is what it is all about right now and BMN just declared they can now produce 3,750 tons of it. That’s a circa 36% increase in production within 15 months of taking ownership of the facility. A figure that will rise to 82% once phase 3 comes on line. https://twitter.com/dragonev_/status/1012245433928769536?s=21

What I really like about this RNS is the punctuality of it. The company set a very clear deadline for achieving phase 2 and that have hit it. That brings confidence particularly when one appreciates that Vametco is in SA and that that brings perceived if sometimes presumptuous conclusions that deadlines cannot be met. What today’s announcement also stated is that the 3,680 mtv guidance for 2018 is very much on. That in turns offers further confidence that Q2 will see an uplift on the 730 mtv achieved in Q1, and it is that which investors will want to see. Expanding production and progress at a time of wonderfully strong prices. In addition, such achievements give one even greater confidence in the other signposted sign offs for June 2018. Those being the VRFB at Vametco and the BFS for Lemur. Given the way Q1 updates were released, i feel confident that a Lemur update will be released next week. I would not be surprised to see the BFS come shortly beforehand. The BE update should come shortly afterwards and again with it or shortly before it should come to VRFB confirmation. What I would also dearly love to see with/before the BE update, is the business case for the electrolyte facility, which is surely needed to allow the EPC to be started. It is difficult to keep one’s thoughts in check when I think that those 4 news items plus the Vametco Q2 update could/should all be out by the end of July. A concoction that is well worth the wait.

@SOTTR it is all opinion based and investors will likely never be able to completely put their finger on it. I would suggest that there are two main factors at play. 1. Vanadium is receiving much media in Australia this year but this has thus far not been the case so much in the UK. That’s not to say that it’s not there and that it isn’t strong enough to move the SP. But if BMN were on the ASX then it would be a lot higher now. In my opinion. 2. Whilst BMN has been producing for a year it hasn’t actually demonstrated what these prices mean for its bottom line, or even it’s cash flows. The message from the company is clear that Vametco is generating large free cash, but as yet it isn’t measurable, such that a rise in Vanadium prices has nothing for the market to benchmark against. That said the market has already demonstrated that when given tangible progress, it will respect that and interest will build. So BMN isn’t invisible, hence my earlier comments about the combination of news flow and the current buoyant prices of V. So there will be a sizeable reaction to the production report and any other tangible progress on the other elements of the business, I am sure of that. But cash truly talks, especially in what is a speciality mineral, and that is why I always thought H1 results would be the real head turner, hence my Corbine Cup entry. However, whichever way I look at it I just cannot see this holding below 30p until then because I underestimated a few things including the strength of prices this year. That all said things are gonna to swing quite wildly here as the reporting period gets underway because the progress will be much greater than last quarter with major milestones coming to a head. Plus we should not take our eye off the Lemur play and it’s pending BFS, because that’s the final piece of the puzzle pre-finance/construction and I sniff a major move by the Chinese coming.

Indeed Daisan. This further article states that prices for Vanadium nitrogen are now being quoted as high as 380,000 RMB/Ton, so 30,000 RMB/Ton higher even than Pangang are quoting and some 17% up on the week. Those who have been around since the true lows here, when FeV was just $13,000 per ton, talked about these days, dreamt about these days, and now they are here and then some. The fact the company isn’t of the mind to ‘regularly’ update shareholders on this is by the by. It’s the fact that it has happened, is happening and continues to happen. The confirmation of its affects on the company will come out soon enough, but they key is it will come. This is not about hoping this about waiting. Do that and one can expect rich rewards and AIM doing what travellers here aim for, big returns for high risk stories that make good on their potential. BMN is top of the class in that small field because they bought an absolute winner involved in the most successful mineral of the last 3 years, paid for with profits from its very own inventory, for the price of what Vametco will make from less than 10% of its 2018 production. It doesn’t get any better. https://www.vanadiumprice.com/fev-and-vn-alloy-prices-continue-sharp-increase/