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@Alfacomp Yes that is certainly the way I am feeling about things right now. I am trying to find fault with the contiuous stream of supportive text i keep reading but its difficult to do so.

I am absolutely sure that the competition will be strong for the Eskom BESS Project. Its a very large opportunity for a great many battery manufacturers to really stake their claim in the industry, particularly because it is spread across so many smaller sites.

I am under no illusion that BMN would/could win them all. I think there will be a different winner for each contract package. However, that still leaves 3-4 opportunities in this first phase.

Given the backing that BE has had for so long from the IDC and what that must mean for how BE has developed its own offering to position itself for this opportunity;

Given the fact the IDC along with the USTDA has shaped the SA battery storage programme that has led to this Eskom BESS Project;

Given that the IDC has only backed BE and it has backed them because they are seeking to establish the very same industry that Minister Radebe has just talked about today;

I cannot help but conclude that they have the very best chance they would ever wish for with this project and are as prepared as they ever could be, well before te opposition has even got going.

If nothing else, there is no other VRFB manufacturer that is even going to get close to the BE led proposition. They will be defeated across the board starting with cost.

So its down to what lithium can offer, likely led by Fluence. But even then I cannot envisage a situation where a home grown battery offering, which if able to exploit localised value chains, must be able to demonstrate the lowest cost VRFB proposition ever seen, that can also promise jobs, industry and exports, is not going to be able to secure one of those packages.

I continue to try to find holes but it doesn't look like there are any.

A expanding mining play operating in a high price environment whose subsidiary has secured a large scale multi MW contract with Eskom, is a very desirable investment to hold. So a great many are going to want to be a part of it, and we all know what that will mean.

Jeff Radebe, Energy Minister

"For South Africa is also opens up new opportunities for local manufcaturing and job creation in these technologies. These are set to play a very key role in the industry 4.0"

@Alfacomp Yes it absolutely is but could the SA government's position be any more clear.

"South Africa further has high quality minerals and industrial capability that can also be used for battery chemistries, benefication and manufacturing, both locally and abroad, for domestic use and export markets"

It sounds very much like the minister understands fully the benefits that can be obtained from a distributed system that is backed up by energy storage. Essentially he is repeating the message that has been repeatedly discussed on this BB.

But here are the really juicy bits ;

"South Africa further has high quality minerals and industrial capability that can also be used for battery chemistries, benefication and manufacturing, both locally and abroad, for domestic use and export markets"

"Some partnerships have already been formed between government business, development finance and academic institutions, to develop and commercialise battery energy storage system in South Africa"

"To accelerate this uptake. . . include taking a value chain approach to localisation, creating the required technical expertise, designing practical regulations, establishing energy storage standards and ;

"incorporating energy stoarge systems in long term least cost electricuty system planning as we are going to see in the next few days as we finalise our integrated Resource Plan (IRP)"

Now where is that stonkingly strong by button?

Jeff Radebe speeech earlier today at World Bank workshop on Battery Energy Storage ;

https://twitter.com/chrisyelland/status/1100009019077550080

There are a number of tweets available demonstrating that lithium is being thrust down the throats of the attendees at the conference. However, the use of generalized levelised cost analysis is irrelevant when it coems to the Eskom BESS Project.

This is what is key and why the BE offering is so relevant. If the project was in a country such as India then they would likely struggle to make any impact. But it isn't is it?

@brasi I don't personally believe we should expect something BMN specific to come from this conference or the World Bank today. The key news is that local content (as expected) is high on the agenda for the BESS Project, which again we knew because FM has made a point of talking about how much content a BE led locally assembled battery would have.

For balance, i am interested to hear (at the appropriate time) how BE can demonstrate local content for the phase 1 BESS Project, when it is due to be installed in 2020. Right now we can expect locally mined vanadium to be inolved along with some BE manufactured electrolyte. However, the local assembly has only been mentioned as being a long term goal. Whilst that could just be a ploy by the company, I do feel that contract awards are needed in order to justify the expense of investment in local assembly. But then that should apply to the competition, if any, as well.

So I will be interested to see how BE play their tender. It may be that these two phases, due to be implemented by the end of 2021, are sold on the premise that future projects will deliver greatly increased local content.

The World Bank after all are clear in their documentation that this project is an enabler for what is a fledgling industry to encourage investment in assembly etc, to drive lower costs. So to expect too much up front would be unfair and not in line with the World Bank's goals.

Whatever the case I think BE are all over this and pulling agreat many "levers" to make them and their partners (including the IDC) central to any plans and contract awards.

If nothing else, they are certainly showing a great deal of confidence in their words and stretagic goals.

@Endion Thank you very much for sharing. Yes I did follow the announcement on twitter yesterday and this is the official manuscript from that media briefing.

What i would really like to know is who is following Minister radebe at the RE and Energy storage conference today.

I know Prince Moyo is there talking about the Eskom BESS Project but I have a feeling its someone else.

@Brasi I would suggest they are all absolute gold dust. Here is yet another.

"Cost effective and technically advanced energy storage systems are one of the key ingredients to enabling a renewable energy future"

Let that message sink in nice and slow.

Energy Minister
Leader of the revised IRP
Driver of the REIPPP programme
Chosen by Ramaphosa

Says that future RE uptake in SA requires energy storage systems, which Eskom is currently demonstrating over the next 3 years.

Wow! Battery storage has officially arrived in SA, the largest installer of renewables in Africa.

https://twitter.com/radebe_jeff/status/1099961218381561857

Given the content of what Minister radebe says in this tweet, what i would dearly like to know is who the following speaker?

Anyone out there able to help me find out?

https://twitter.com/radebe_jeff/status/1099957002770489344

@Alfacomp

https://twitter.com/GovernmentZA/status/1099911436262879232

Those statements form part of Minister Radebe's opening remakrs at the SA Renewable Energy and Energy Storage Conference being hosted in Cape Town today.

And who is it being hosted by?

The World Bank.

Anybody needs any ear plugs?

Comments on twitter today state that the World Bank may today announce some $1-billion funding for energy storage projects prioritised for the African continent.

I wonder where they will be making that announcement then. Stand by your beds.

Thank you Oreste.

Getting louder and louder and louder.

Talking about "growing stronger by the day" this is something all BMN investors are going to want to be aware of.

The enclosed tweet from Chris Yelland a SA energy analyst shows a presentation being given by Prince Moyo of Eskom today. The content of which is absolute gold dust for BMN and its shareholders.

As suspected the tender enquiries for the 200MW phase 1 BESS project have been put back slightly and are now expected "middle 2019" Phase 2 at around 160MW will be early 2020. So the timelines for the testing of the BE battery at Eskom, whilst in my view never an issue, will definitely not be a problem at all.

Secondly, and more importantly the slide states that "Local content expected (no surprise but good to see) and will include ;

"assembly, AC equipment, civils commissioning, maintenance"

ASSEMBLY.

I love it when a plan comes together.

https://twitter.com/chrisyelland/status/1099949645663518720

Good morning everyone.

I have posted several articles and quotes over the last few weeks demonstrating the extent to which the SA government is aware of, understands and supports energy storage in the form of batteries.

On Sunday Jeff Radebe the current SA Energy Minister and key driver of the new and pending IRP for SA, said this ;

“Big centralized power generation plants will disappear and replaced by distributed generation, mini-grids and batteries,”

That isn't sitting on the fence. That isn't indicating some awareness, that is a clear message that this particular SA government understands the technology and that it will be a key player in the future of energy generation in South Africa. Batteries sure have come a long way in a very short amount of time.

What that message is clearly saying is that the plans currently being implemented through the break up of Eskom, are designed, in part at least, to free up the utility's generation arm to encourage far more independant businesses to drive future generation and replace large scale, large capex centralised plants, and batteries will be at their centre.

This very same government has previously specifically mentioned VRFBs as part of the drive to beneficiate SA minerals, and its president has listed that same beneficiation of SA minerals as one of his 10 drivers for the mining industry and stated that the government is already working with mining partners on this front, meaning VRFBs and BE/BMN are a part of what and who he meant.

Now we have the Energy Minister, not hoping, not wishing but accepting and telling us how the future energy transition will take place, even in the face of such union led opposition. That tells us just how strong the message is, the need is, and how far they are prepared to go to deliver it.

One must be careful not to get too carried away and assume what BMN is offering is the only solution, that 1 company can solve all of these SA problems alone. However, one should also not underestimate the evidence that is being presented. The SA government is very much aware of BE, of VRFBs, of their ability to bring a new industry to SA, to deliver beneficiation of local minerals and to create exports. The exact same reasons why the gvernment owned IDC backed Bushveld Energy in the first place.

It is that key connection alone that makes the size of the possibility here all the more real for me. But when I add all of this mouting evidence from multiple ministers and the president, then I am almost ready to get carried away.

In my opinion the likelihood of BE reaching its front end goals literally grows stronger by the day

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-24/south-africa-committed-to-expanding-renewable-power-radebe-says

Sorry but where are you getting the impression that the 36Kt contract was with Geociclo?

The RNS relating to that contract is dated 7th March 2018 and clearly states the customer as being " Agrocerrado Produtos Agrícolas e Assistência Técnica LTDA ("Agrocerrado)"

Also the latest Q1 2019 presentation, which is post the collapse of Geociclo clearly states the following on slide 10 'SALES' ;

"Secured first major sales contracts"

The company has only demonstrated 2 such contracts, so it must mean them and given the timing of the statement it is fair to assume that both remain live. Plus if they had lost one they would be obligated to tell investors given that both have been communicated by RNS and the affects of the Geociclo collapse on HMI was also communicate in this manner.

So the logical conclusion is that that is not correct and the contracts are and have been fulfilled. Therefore, as far as I am concerned they are current until I see hard evidence to the contrary.

@Cindercone With all due respect, are you absolutely sure what you just said is correct.

Firsty, if the World bank documentation is to be believed, and it was put together off the back of what Eskom told them, then the 800MWh phase 1 of the BESS project will come out in 3-4 contract packages. If they are fairly evenly spread ou, which I have no reason to believe they won't because thye are being split due to the concerns over time constraints, then we are talking circa 200-250MWh of batteries per package.

In my opinion, just one of those would be moren than enough to spark a whole new market of investor interest. I don't expect nor believe it is needed, that BE and its partners needs to win more than that. At some point in time after that event, said event will deliver to the market, when it wakes up, the BMN fully integrated model.

NOTE - The Eskom project represents the very best up fron chance that BE has to drive its platform and encourage its partners to expand their operations into SA, thus delivering even better cost savings across the value chain, but it doesn not represent the only chance with Eskom, nor does it define the energy storage opportunity. It is merely a very good chance and a very opportune point in time.

Right now the market is showing absolutely zero interest in BMN's energy storage offering so we have no clue how much it will decide to price in as the tender process runs its course. It might fail to see it right up and beyond the awared of the contracts. So how can BMN get hammered for something that isn't even respected yet.

I have made a very strong case for the Eskom project because it has all the hallmarks of a project that BE and its partners can win. Because there is ample evidence out there demonstrating that everything was being run in preparation for this project, which is why I believe so much that a win is on the cards. But it should not be placed on too high a pedastal. it isn't win or lose, its more about win now, win this year, not next or the one after.

But without going as far as saying it is guaranteed, i cannot be more positive about the chances that they have with this project. It was right there in FM's eyes in that interview too, he knows and so do I, and there is still more behind all of this than we can imagine or currently see.

@pb940 I try to avoid offering investment advice although i do post my positivity very strongly at times, which i am sure counters this in some ways. What I would say is care is still needed, the story still has to be delivered and risk still exists, and life changing gains are just that and should not be forgotten and always respected.

Just because i believe so strongly and am so sure of the outcome, does not mean the next man/woman should feel and act the same.

That said there are a great many investors out there taking far greater risks for far few potential gains in stocks that in my opinion are simply untouchable. If I am going to play at this game then i want the greatest chance of success, particularly when i choose to dabble with the notorious AIM.

But for me this is as good as it gets. This is where all of those catch phrases and classic one liners actually have some meaning. Its the truly big bite I was looking for and its happening right now, right before our eyes ;)

In my humble opinion of course. . .

@Nininvestor In all honesty I am not getting overly excited about the next BE update because for me it isn;t the key one this year.

Yes there are the expected electrolyte samples but the point at which take offs will be secured is not now. We also know from FM's interview that the battery is near as damn it commissioned and we can assume that there are no further issues, so the test is underway.

FM's words in the interview demonstrate that the testing of the BE battery is very important for Eskom and is a key stage in their development of a battery programme. That is very important to remember. The Eskom test facility was opened as part of a process to establish if battery storage could be cost effectively employed with the Eskom infrastructure. It goes hand in hand with the BESS project, so it isn't going to be left behind or ignored.

Since there are only 2 other worthwhile batteries at Rosherville, it is implausible to me that the third and most localised option would not ba catered for, given we are talking about a month or so delay at best (I use a month and the delay merely as examples).

If battery project contract wins from the project pool outside of the Eskom BESS project are going to happen , then for me they will be announced separately.

Those aside, the biggest 2 events in the BE calendar right now are the electrolyte plant and the Eskom BESS project. The EIA is panned for completion in H1 so the 3rd quarter update or other form of communication will be the point at which the construction of the plant should be declared. That is a key one for me even though I do not expect electrolyte production until at least Q1 2020.

As for the tender, it will be interesting to see how the company plays it. I expect the leasing model to be a part of the tender, so it surely needs to be in the public domain before the tender goes in. i would also expect more concrete evidence of how the IDC/UET/BE relationship will stack up, which has been heavily hinted at by FM (hence my elevated levels of excitement of late) in the 121 interview with his words about "a lot more detail" on the BE business model.

Whether that will come in the BE updates or separately I do not know for sure, but I would expect a contractual relationship or binding agreement to be worthy of an RNS. That should then show just how much financial gain BMN/BE will reap from electrrolyte, VRFBs development etc. That's a key building block to valuation but will i come in the Q2 update, I don't know.

The short and sweetness of it all, I think Q3 and the period in between that and the pending Q2 BE update, is the real time to start getting excited, because by that point just like with the 10,000 mtv brownfield expansion now, we just won't/don't know what will be coming from one day to the next, hence my earlier post regarding shorting now being a lot riskier than before.

"Its 26 000 kilometres of transmission lines span the entire country and extend into most Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries"

That being the SADC that has a free trade agreement between 13 of its 15 members.

Eskom's reach as the main electricity generator in Africa is to expected. Currently Eskom supports an REIPPP in South Africa, mainly because there is simply isn't enough transmission structure in the majority of the other SADC countries.

But imagine what a successful roll out of a BESS pilot project could do. A demonstration that SADC members do not need transmission in order to instigate success REIPPP programmes or projects. Imagine what a revenue stream that would create for Africa's largest utility and a government keen to support the export of South African goods and servie supported by local beneficiated minerals.

Perhaps that BESS Project isn't just about gaining access to Eskom projects in SA, nor is it just about simply working for Eskom, perhaps it could end up being about working with them, starting in the energy hungry SADC.

http://www.dpe.gov.za/soc/Pages/Eskom.aspx