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Good morning all. Just returned from a few days holiday and wanted to take some time to review the tender document that Leas so kindly shared with us all here.

The first thing i would like to say is that this tender document delivers one of the key answers regarding CP0-5. What we now know is that ONGC Videsh are very serious about this block and that is driven by the fact that it has such great potential, which we have discussed here but is now confirmed where it matters the most. I have been saying it for a few weeks now that AMER have clearly stated how big deal this block is post Indico and ONGC have now shown that they see it too. Game on.

I have looked at the timelines and would think that we are looking at a contractor start date of around maximum mid July 2019. I base this on the fact that the bids are due in by 15.04.2019 and they have a "bid validity" period of 60 days. Clause 33.1 then states that "Prior to the expiration of the period of bid validity, the ONGC-VL will notify the successful bidder in writing that its bid has been accepted."

The mobilisation period will then kick in at the date that the above faxed order is sent. In my experience for such a service led contract that is normally around 4 weeks, but it is an assumption as no date is given in the tender.

If ONGC take the full period of 60 days then we are at a July start. Whilst this still lends itself to an accelerated "phase 2" start in late 2019, I would think that this is all gearing up for a larger broader drilling programme in 2020, (which is again what i have been keen to focus on here) starting in the SE of the block.

"In SE part of CPO-5 block, 4 exploratory locations are lined up for early drilling within extended phase II period of the block."

There is plenty to get excited about in 2019 here but 2020 looks like it is going to be far bigger, especially is Putamayo starts to delivers as well.

Reading the documents I note that on page 58 it states ;

"According to Colombian legislation a land negotiation processes and a constitution of servitude must be implemented in the areas selected for the construction of exploratory / surface facilities."

That means that they should be effectively free to drill as they wish from the existing pads, so long as they can access them and they have sufficient surface facilities for what they find. The same page says that "similar procedures have been followed in land negotiation and servitude constitution in other well locations of the block."

What that says is that Mariposa, Indico, Sol and Aguila are all good to go along with any extended drills that come from the successes that are had there. So this tender is about the surface facilities around Mariposa/Indico and the phase II drilling, which is looking very substantial indeed.

As I say, game on.

@Strider4 with all due respect the 'rumour' in question is an interview with the CEO of a major copper producer, who is very clearly stating they are in the process of trying to invest into a lithium mine.

Not only that the specifics of what he talks about can only point to BCN being the mine in question. So as rumours go its a very strong one, in fact it's not even a rumour it's a statement of intent.

Then there is the fact that he specifically references further Chinese interest.

Then on top of that the company has failed to denounce it. Given the implications I very much doubt the nomad would have allowed that if Southern Copper weren't talking to BCN, which makes the rumour true and confirms the Chinese link.

The key takeaway from all of that for me is the fact that the Sonora asset is attracting substantial interest from major players. What that in turn tells me is that funding or a sale is inevitable because either funding is available at attractive terms which allows them to rebuff Southerns interest, or it isn't and so it's about an aggressive negotiation for a sale. WIN WIN at these levels and well beyond.

For me the cancelled fund raise last year acts as a psychological support for their approach to this latest round of funding. Furthermore the German asset acts as a good support for both prices at these levels and post sale if it indeed happens. Remember the FS is due in Q2 and they have their mining permit. Therefore a favourable capex and costing structure backed by the sale proceeds of Sonora will allow a far higher percentage of the NPV to be realised on that project and further enhance the valuation beyond any sale price.

But that all aside the key is the interest and the options at BCNs disposal because one way or another Sonora is a goer, and that simply isn't allowed for in the current valuation. Traders may play and various strategies will play out but right now for me this is only going one way, and it is a matter of when and not if.

Holding long here should see considerable rewards.

@TBTT Agreed. Hence why I included those words from the report on the bonus at £1.30. I appreciate the fact that they have 2 assets but the bulk of the value right now is with Sonora.

A sale at $200m with just $220m of funding required to complete Phase 1, would for me make the project very cheap, given the size of the asset and its low costs. Battery grade lithium is trading at a 20% premium to the FS price of $11,000 right now, which itself must surely come into play. Who knows but at this rate the company should have to say something soon, although this re-rate is relieving a great deal of pressure on the funding, which makes the investment case all the stronger.

There must i am sure be clauses attached to the current debt financing that are affected by a sale of the asset but a company but I don't see it being a show stopper.

@TigerByTheTail At this stage, given the limited information, it looks like Southern Copper are looking to buy the asset, perhaps also the Chinese business too. That does not mean that BCN want to sell.

Where I do agree is that the german asset with better grades, an FS due, and a mining permit in place, is a strong enough asset for BCN to fall back upon, thus that opens up the possibility of them selling for the right price.

What I really like about this situation though is that BCN's SP has fallen on fears over finance. If those fears have grounds then BCN now potentially has a way out of that situation with a sale. However, if the company has found a sound funding method for the rest of Sonora then they can perhaps turn down any unsolicited approaches. So it turns into a win/win for investors. Either they are keen to sell because financing is troublesome ( and I am thinking more the embarrassment of turning down funding last year at potentially higher prices rather than it not being achievable at today's levels, thus increasing dilution for shareholders), or funding is going well, they are comfortable with it and can afford to either drive a hard bargain or turn down said approaches.

That to me looks like a very strong place to be right now and supports far greater position from the market.

PS If the company felt it worthwhile issuing a statement when the SP dropped 30% then surely the same applies in the other direction, does it not.

Furthermore, the stronger the rally here the better funding gets and the greater the support for the SP.

Good morning all.

Having had a good look at the reuters report, and without wishing to fan the bullish flames too much here, I have to say it is about as good a rumour as anyone could wish for. I had questioned whether it was related to a strategic investment to complete funding, seeing as that is what the company has recently talked about. However, the article is clear when it says “trying to sell it” when referring the the "canadian miner."

That said it could still be that we are talking investment rather than sale.

If it is a sale then it is well worth investors referring to page 32 of the Annual Report June 2018. There it talks about the bonuses that Mr Hohnen and Mr Secker would receive upon sale of the company, which starts at £1.30 per share. Hoever, I stress that this is the company sale and not just the Sonora asset in Mexico.

That said £1.30 at 134m shares is still only $226m, which isn't that high a figure for such a low cost high grade project.

Lastly, the German asset is for me potentially a better project than Sonora, and the sale of the Mexico asset would set them up very nicely to buy out the other 50% and take that project forward with a very large cash pile with which to finance it and support strong debt financing.

http://www.bacanoralithium.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Consolidated-financial-statements-june-2018-final-signed-CH_Website.pdf

I have to agree. I cannot remember the last time I came across a junior miner that had made this much progress and was valued at just £20m. However, this company also has one of the lowest cost and largest lithium projects in the world, which only heightens that sense of imbalance further.

The funding does indeed need to be resolved but the company has for me completed the most difficult element, which is the debt funding. Now it is about how they will complete the rest. However, it is about how and certainly not if because the asset is just too good, and that's without any thought for what could be a very strong 2nd asset in Germany, which is right in the middle of the 3rd largest passenger car producing country in the world.

Its a long term investment for me but it is no surprise that the SP is already beginning to recover, and the higher it goes the more the concerns over funding dissipate.

One other thing I would like to add is that the very next well that comes at a good size, so circa 3-4,000 bopd, will ensure that AMER contribution to the current drill programme at CP0-5 is then fully covered.

AMER have a current capex commitment for 2019 of $36.3m with an additional $24.2m carried.

If we are fortunate enough to see Calao-1 come in and deliver the above sort of flow, then the capex for the next 5 drills at CP0-5 can be taken off the table. That reduces the AMER commitment by $14.2m. Thus AMER would be spending circa $22m this year.

Knowing that they had at least $49m in cash at June 2018, means that all of the cash generated since then and through to the end of 2019, will go straight into the coffers for any future expansion plans on their blocks. That in turn will be driven by success with the drill bit.

Personally, I think the H2 numbers won't have added that much to those coffers, partly because of the reduced production and because no sales were made from Platanillo in December. However, this year is a different story such that by the end of 2019 there will either be a mighty war chest or there will be more rigs drilling at CP0-5.

Either way early further success at CP0-5 delivers strong cash generation for AMER, which supports a stronger more ambitious programme next year and possibly beyond (oil prices aside).

@Wait Whilst I agree wholeheartedly concur with ColonelDrake's 20.58 post of last night, I do still enjoy the debate on this front end drill.

It is important to remember that whilst ONGC reported Indico later than AMER, both parties reported Mariposa-1 on the same day (see below). That being 4th May 2017, which was day 39 of the drill.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/ongc-videsh-strikes-oil-in-colombia/article9681046.ece

That aside, whilst for me the first real point of review here would be post the 2 Indico appraisals, so sometime in Q3. What i also very much like about that point in time, assuming all drills go ahead as planned this year, is that Q4 is shaping up to be a very busy period indeed with 4-5 drills including Put 9 and 12, where there are gross resources of circa 70m barrels at 50% ownership.

It will be very interesting to see where AMER stands in terms of success and plans then.

@addicknt et al. With all due respect whilst i sympathise with holders that have averages far higher than that which we currently witness, I won't apologise for achieving a much lower one. That is after all what we are all ultimately trying to do and I have been on the wrong end of that particular scenario to understand it but have also seen how it can come good even for those that feel it is perhps too late.

I can appreciate that there is anxiety regarding a significant raise at lower levels but for me the level of concern is exaggerated at this time, given there is no physical evidence that such a move is currently in play.

New equity funding of around 50% is expected as part of any new mining project that is being developed by a junior miner, but yes this all does come down to how much and at what pricing level. In my view there are enough sufficiently robust factors in Bacanoras favour to warrant the market giving the stock far more respect, even with the issue of needing to find a further $220m in financing. There is a process in play that is artificially affecting the SP at this time. This will clear and there is a good chance the BOD are aware of it. That is why the $20m in cash is so important at this time.

In addition, if anything the pulling of the equity raise in July last year now acts as a supportive factor because to raise that sort of cash at these levels would leave the BOD looking rather foolish and highly likely out of a job. That's not to say that they have an abundant number of other choices, nor that they won't do it, more that it demonstrates where their minds will be keenly focused and the likelihood of it not occuring.

I am buying this stock for the long term so for me it can tread water to a degree until the market conditions look more favourable. My focus these last 3-4 years has been vanadium and utility scale storage. I have personally conducted a great deal of detailed research and have equally been a party to some fine work into those markets. The energy storage revolution is a reality, it is coming faster than many realise, and despite my vanadium minded long term interests, lithium will be in great demand. That means lower quartile lithium deposits of the quality that Bacanora own will be in high demand and will get built.

I would also point out that Bacanora own 100% of this project. A great many other juniors out there are selling their stories on far lower percentages. In South Africa for instance the maximum is 70% due to BEE rules.

It is too good a project to be trading at £20m MC. It is oversold and in my opinion that situation will correct itself prior to any significant equity raise.

Good morning everyone.

Having watched this stock for a while now I have now begun building a long position.

I appreciate that risks remain and the fall in SP along with the potential reasons for it are to be considered but the risk reward at these levels is just too compelling.

This is a lower first quartile mining stock that has really solid numbers at Li2CO3 prices of just $11,000, so in my view it is going to get built.

It has completed all of the most problematic and expensive elements of its development in terms of permits and studies, and achieved over 50% of its finance requirements. It even has 100% ownership of the main 2 mining licenses that make up the first 20 years of its mine life.

In addition, currently the project costings include a "3% royalty due on all product sales to Mr Colin Orr-Ewing, which has been included in the Life of Mine cashflows" but this is being challenged in the courts and may even be overturned, which will only add further to the strength of the economics.

If that weren't enough, a MC of less than £20m barely covers the cash on hand, which itself represents significant breathing space with which to secure the remaining finance.

There may well be dilutive financing to come and yes it may well be substantial but at this entry level those risks are for me minimised, because there are still considerable returns to be made from here. The most important thing for me is the belief that the project will be built and that it will be profitable. Those two factors are for me highly likely certain for reasons shown above, so I am a buyer because it is a bargain and will continue to do so for as long as it remains depressed.

Day 40 of the drill and the AMER tweeting machine wakes up talking about Llanos 34 breaking the 70,000 bopd milestone.

@rhodi I appreciate we are all trying to be cautious and respectful to risks but in all honesty the word 'possibly' simply doesn't belong in that statement. It is a gift horse at current prices and at current oil prices or there abouts, on its current trajectory, this stock will at least double this year, and that's conservative if Putamayo hits its dates and its targets.

@ColonelDrake Yes there are one or two words in the english language, which are my achilles heel, Colombian is one of them. I will endeavour to do better. However, I would fear for anyone reviewing AMER and my words, and becomes that confused as to where they are actually drilling.

Indeed. Just take a look at the Estrella website and their list of Columbian rigs. The E-2029 is arguably the biggest they have in service.

http://www.estrellaies.com/es/services.php

@leas I make it 39 days completed with spud on 1st Feb (28 days) plus 11 days completed in March (Columbian time).

Mariposa reported after 39 days and Indico (perhaps reluctantly) after circa 40 days (spud timing wasn't exactly defined).

So one way or the other we are right on the money.

I saw a chart yesterday talking about resistance at 20-22p, which ok may be a short term barrier. However, I like to think of things differently. What happens if/when Calao, Pavo and the 2 appraisal wells come in? 4 from 4. What does that say about the prospectivity of CP0-5 and future drilling success?

Some may think that getting carried away, but is there anything in the size and quality of the results to date, or indeed the words from the company that would make one think its not possible?

@JTinv Back in 2015 when this company was indicating the possibility of acquiring brownfield processing, nowhere was it explicitly written that they would buy Vametco. The only place that was being discussed was here. That knowledge and the willingness to back it helped create a good few of those millionaires of which you speak.

Now the subject matter is energy storage and a South African led VRFB industry led by Eskom contracts but the game is the same.

The information allowing one to make an informed decision as to the probability of that occuring is all set out here on these pages and the those of the Bushveld Perspective. All one need do is read it, investigate the facts therein, and make a decision either way.

Hope is for those that are unsure or ill informed and knowledge is power. For those that dig deep and are prepared to uncover every little scrap of detail out there, there is opportunity that turns that hope into something far more tangible.

In my humble opinion Bushveld Energy is on a trajectory that is going to light up the battery storage industry by placing VRFBs in SA, firmly on the map.

Lithium-ion is king but nowhere in the world has anyone tested it against the robustness of a fully integrated vanadium platform. When that platform is tested in its own backyard, the home to some of the world's highest grade vanadium resources backed by a localised electrolyte facility, then we will start to see just how strong a case those particular VRFBs will have.

It is absolutely clear to me how this will pan out and when it does indeed come to pass, there will be a great many commentators telling us what a wonderful investment it would make, when those with the knowledge and that willingness, will have already have made their moves the returns that come with it.

Just my humble opinion as always, nothing more, nothing less.

@Jaggers thank you and very informative. Yes Colonel Drake perhaps I was being a tad bit overzealous but then perhaps just perhaps they are going deeper on Calao-1 already.

That aside, the market for AMER shares is starting to show a little life. The ask is above 17p for the first time in a long tie. Is the market finally giving AMER credit for what it is about to test?

We shalle see.

There is as far as I can see no reference to the total depth that was drilled at Indico. According to the Feb presentation (slide 17) Indico-1 hit the Palaeozoic level at around 10,100ft.

According to the 10th Dec RNS the "Palaeozoic level represents a Lowest-Known-Oil for the Indico structure" meaning they didn't drill any deeper.

Spudding of Calao RNS dated 4th Feb 2019

"Calao-1X will be a directional well, with a planned total measured depth of approximately 11,940 feet"

I understand that the geography can change but I cannot find any documented evidence that Calao-1 is up or down dip, only that it is a structure next to Indico-1.

Given that Indico-1 found no water contact, isn't it rater significant that Calao is planning to drill nearly 2,000ft deeper than Indico? Or have I misinterprated something?

To place a link between the n-sand sand what is happening at CP0-5 is for me a big mistake and demonstrates a lack of understanding of what is now playing out here with AMER.

Here's another angle for you on the reserves release. Perhaps the company was keen to demonstrate just what Indico has accomplished for the company as a whole under the current 'conservative' approach led by McDaniel, prior to the new drills coming in, in order to avoid clouding up what was achieved in 2018 with any new monster connected oil find(s). Bearing in mind that there likely won't be another official reserves update until this time next year.

If there is combination trapping, which i would add is heavily hinted as being the reality here, then surely Indico's numbers are going to be re-visited.

That aside, and without wishing to assume or get ahead of myself, could it just be that Calao is going to come in in a big way, and if it does then what does that mean for the valuaiton of this company moving forward and the rest of what is a massive block out there in Columbia. If Calao delivers a big connected column then in very simple terms won't the partnership have effectively widened the fairway by around 1.5km and counting?

Perhaps I am interpreting the information incorrectyl but when the CEO of the company says things like “you don’t find a 300ft oil column in isolation. It has to be part of a bigger trapping system,” particularly immediately prior to a new revised drilling programme getting under way. Doesn't that mean that the area is loaded with oil be it at Calao, Pavo or somewhere else yet to be announced.

Llanos 34 has a git rate of over 90% on 95 plus drills. CP0-5 is not Llanos 34 but then Llanos 34 isn't CP0-5 because it never hit a 300ft oil column.

Calao is the first designtaed target after that 300ft oil find so it must be of great interest and it is 'only' 1.5km from Indico.

Like I say i don't wish to assume or get carried away but from where i am sitting Calao is looking very good indeed.

Monster news Alfacomp.

Now would be a good time to re-read the BE Q1 update from 11th April 2018.

Under Market Status

"In South Africa, demand continues to rise, evidenced both by greater enquiries for provision of single-acid vanadium electrolyte or direct projects that require energy storage for at least four hours per day. This has allowed Bushveld Energy to continue growing its regional project pipeline."

"However, conversion of potential projects is currently low due to regulatory uncertainty over the treatment of energy storage, the lack of progress of South Africa's renewable energy programme and opaque official guidance on the direction of the country's energy policy as published in the Department of Energy's Integrated Resource Plan."

We are still at draft stage and the article states a beleif that the IRP won't be officially released prior to the May elections, but it isn't about timelines, its about direction, and in fell swoop we are seeing both progress on the RE programme, direction for the country's energy policy and most importantly the country's position on energy storage.

However, even better than that, they aren't just talking energy storage they are talking specifically battery storage.

Gazette the IRP and its game on.

Like the film says, "if you build it, they will come." Well SA is building it and it is coming.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=BMN&ArticleCode=z7p3pput&ArticleHeadline=Bushveld_Energy_Q1_Operational_Update