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@Poieo The interims will be out by 29th March and rather neatly in time for the UKInvestorShow.

There are many good reasons to believe that HMI are on solid ground moving forward but as tells go. . .

If i were the HMI BOD, I wouldn't be paying for free tickets for my investors and encouraging them along to my stand, if i was intending on giving them a load of bad news immediately prior to their visit and my likely interrogation.

That smacks of positivity in my book but we will find out soon enough.

I take it nobody else knows the location of the 500m share issue limit then. Shame.

Aside from this, I find it interesting that Candence took the time to issue an RNS today regarding the Zinnwald update from BCN. As far as I can see the only financial position they hold in the German assets is through their shares in BCN itself and the perception is that they are selling them down completely.

However, yesterday BCN reported as part of the Capital Group holdings update that they "believe this to be the last tranche of institutional selling and thus this will no longer be a source of share price volatility."

That would indicate that they had at the very least spoken to all their institutional investors and in particular the 3 that have been selling of which Candence are certainly one.

Today's update from Candence supports that position and indicates that they still hold shares in BCN and that they perhaps at the very least, have taken a pause ot better still intend keeping them for the foreseeable future. If so then perhaps the institutional selling is nearing an end, although I would expect the SP to be moving far more aggressively north if it was 100% complete.

The more I read of the historical information, the more I become convinced that the funding will come as late into Q2 as possible, and that the FS for Zinnwald will certainly be employed as a means to help drive the SP north, although the clearance of institutional selling should also be as strong a driver as anything because there is certainly plenty of interest around BCN, and if it gets a sniff that the selling has stopped then a lot of money should then move in.

observer842 Good morning. I have been reading through the latest accounts and releases in order to find the wording attached to the 500m share issue allowance, but to no avail. Could you or anoyone else please point me in the right direction.

Thank you in advance.

@Tyfoon I believe the longer one is prepared to stay involved with the energy storage story the better it will get for them. Much of the talk here is short term but it is the longer term trends and picture that are going to deliver the greatest rewards. 2020 will be great jump forward a few years more and we will really see the acceptance and main stream uptake of energy storage solutions take hold and with it the returns from thsoe companies that are best placed to take advantage of it.

Patience will bring great rewards here, of that i am sure.

Apologies. That should have read 2020. I really should trade in my old computer it is time and again letting me down. I just can't bring myself to part with it.

That isn't to say that there isn't a great deal of excitement to come this year too just that the energy storage story for me truly begins next year. That's when the electrolyte plant will be on line, that's when the expansion at Vametco really starts to take place, and that should be when those Eskom contracts begin to be rolled out with a BE consortium heavily involved.

All of that said, BMN could drop a major brownfield expansion/acquisition plan on us at any time and then all bets are off.

@stroga I am not sure if your question was directed at me but I will give my view point anyway.

I would firstly like to be clear that I am not assuming that large scale dilution will take place, what I am doing is logically dissecting what could happen as a worst case scenario and calculating if I could live with it when buying at these levels, and the answer is yes i can.

On the funding for me it is all about looking for the tells and calculating the likely outcome given what we already know. I have said previously that the failed fund raise last July for me actually works in our favour because it should help protect against a silly low ball highly dilutive raise.

The fact that the company has now stated that they are looking to complete the full $460m funding further compounds that argument because they have previously demonstrated an ability to move construction forward by raising an intermediate sum of $100m. To now repeatedly state that they looking at "securing the full funding of US$460 million for the Sonora Lithium Project in Mexico in Q2 2019" says that they must have options to avoid this sum being raised as purely new shares at the pricing point when they are raised.

The BCN management team would come under enormous pressure if having pulled the plug on $100m of funding when the SP was circa 80p, they then go on to raise more than double that at valuations less than half of that.

Then add in the improved sentiment in the lithium market, the quality of the asset, the fact that debt funding is secured and so the risk for an new equity partner is reduced, and the fact that lithium carbonate battery grade prices are 20% above the FS study levels

All of that says that the percentages point to a deal that at the very least attempts to avoid the worst case scenario and at the very least has a very good chance of being secured.

If that is indeed the case then an SP of circa 23p presents a very attractive entry point.

@MajorThomas1 I'm sorry but I have to disagree with your opinion on this.

Firstly, decimate is an awfully strong word to use considering where BCN finds itself. Secondly, to pack all 'existing shareholders' into the same box is a mistake and belittles the opportunity that is staring a good many right in the face here at these levels.

There are still only 134m shares in issue and the pre-tax NPV is $1.25 billion at $11,000 per ton. Therefore even large scale dilution is still going to see an SP achieved that is considerably above these levels. It will take time but it will be achieved, which is what is most important. However, that's worst case.

If part of the funding is achieved through another means then the dilutive element decreases and the returns from these levels further increases, so the risk reward increases.

If the now clearly defined institutional sellers are cleared and the SP has the opportunity to operate without their influence, then the SP rises and the dilution decreases. The more buying that takes place prior to the funding the better the result for everyone. IF there is indeed a large dilutive planned which isn't guaranteed. So the risk reward increases.

Lithium carbonate prices are already 20% above the $11,000 employed in the FS. If they maintain that or strengthen further then that NPV only gets better. At the current $13,000 per ton the POST TAX NPV increases to the same level as the above $1.25 billion pre-tax NPV ( See Sonora FS page 207).

Some LTHs are at much higher levels and will perhaps neeed longer to realise a good return, but the company will be planning to deliver its shareholders long term returns made against production and dividends, and that is presumably what most investors planned for. If so then they still have nothing to fear because there are only 134m in issue. Therefore, dividends when they come will still be paid out against a relatively low number of shares in isssue. Just take a look around at other shares. Even BMN has over 1.1 billion shares now and they did a very good job of minimising dilution through a brownfield acquisition. BCN will beat that by some distance on a greenfield project and so has a great deal of headroom.

But all of that remains a bonus because the core reason to invest at these levels is protected because there are so few shares in issue, meaning the probability of a higher SP being achieved post funding declaration are high, thus supporting the reason for buying and for positioning oneself for the additonal risk reward that comes from a better commercial outcome on the funding.

All my opinion only of course.

@Tyfoon my interest was more sparked by the fact that further investment from 'central' sources is being generated, which is for me more about the growth in interest in the sector. There is clear evidence that the climate chnage question is going to drive the greatest investment in the energy storage sector because it is the only true means by which that particular question can be answered at a speed that will actually do any good.

It is not about BMN winning all the work, it is about the work being out there to be won and that it is backed by serious funding. There is for me no better funding than development banks with an energy transition agenda.

In the case of BMN, 202 is the year when this all really kicks off now, but i am sure it will be more than worth the wait.

Here is an article shedding more light on the $300m investment by the NDB. The money is to go to the "Development Bank of South Africa who would further distribute funds according to the government allocations."

So there is a chance it could still be a part of the Eskom BESS Project as Eskom needs to fund a part of it and that may well come from that source, given that it was the money is designed for. Still worth keeping an eye on.

https://www.saurenergy.com/solar-energy-news/ndb-clears-300-mn-to-fund-south-african-energy-sector

Thank you SloppyGuiseppe that is most interesting.

"The second is a further $300 million facility to improve the country’s battery-storage capacity" What on earth could that be about?

The New Development Bank is not currently taking part in the funding for the Eskom BESS Project. So if this news is correct then it means further funding for another project(s). Considering the tender for the BESS project doesn't even get released until mid year, this indication of funding in 2019 is all the more interesting.

Another intereting development,not for the license purchase but for the message that it once again communicates. The BCN team clearly feels very confident that they will conclude funding for Sonora in Q2 because they are taking every chance to drive that message home. So for me that is highly likely what will happen.

It is therefore now about the content of the funding and the timing, and the way that the company plays its hand.

I feel strongly that if there is to be significant dilution then they are going to see off the institutional selling first of all and a Q2 deadline gives them ample time to do so. If they are able to deliver the Zinnwald FS first of all then all the better, if there is room to breathe on the funding afterwards, but that perhaps would be a little too perfect.

The key is the clearing of the institutional sellers, which should really shake things up here.

Further to my last post I hadn't noted the quote from JW in today's RNS.

"In the interim, while awaiting approval by ANH, preparations for the exciting drilling programme in the block will continue."

Well said jointhedots although i believe the vast majority of contributors here are clear on that front.

A couple of further thoughts I had on this are as follows and i would welcome any thoughts or comments.

GTE announced their proposed purchase of the blocks that included PUT 8 on 20th Feb. AMER released their updated presentation on 4th Feb, post CP0-5 startegy update.

Given they have a first refusal and were in partnership with Vetra, i am struggling to conclude that they knew nothing about this development until 20th Feb. As they have first refusal on the 50% of PUT 8, which comes with operatorship i might add, then they will surely have known by 4th Feb that this was on the cards. Therefore, I am paying closer attention to the plan set out for PUT 8 in that 4th Feb presentation.

The issue I have is that GTE as part of that deal also increased their interest in the Suroriente Block to 52% and operatorship. Given that AMER have now just taken this block away, a block that GTE stated "contains at least two exciting drill-ready exploration prospects, which could potentially be drilled in 2019 using existing pads," i wonder what the strategy will be moving forward, given they are supposed to employ the pad in that Suroriente block.

If the drill is still on for Q2 then how are they going to achieve it. Perhaps GTE will play ball still but I doubt it somehow. So what's the plan I wonder. The plan to use the existing Cohembi-2 pad was to avoid the need for a lengthy environmental license process, which given the time delays has become something of a waste of time.

What is for sure is a company does not make its single largest purchase ever and then sit on its hands. So there must be a plan.

Finally, it will be interesting how things now develop in Put 12 becasue Pluspetrol are starting to look very lonely with their 40% interest there, particularly when we consider the overlaps from Put 9. They are surely a hindrance to the OXY/AMER partnership going forward. So perhaps that will be the next play for AMER/OXY? The first well there is planned for Q4 2019.

Thoughts welcome.

http://www.grantierra.com/press-room/article/295-gran-tierra-acquires-strategic-assets-in-putumayo-and-llanos-basins.html

@Jaggers I couldn't agree more. This move demonstrates the confidence that AMER have in their future production.

Just think about just how large a commitment they could have in 2020 across up to 6 blocks even without Platanillo.

CP0-5
Put 8
Put 9
Put 12
Tacacho
Terecay

This stock is not about its current SP because it demonstrates absolutely nothing that is taking place here.

AMER in 2019 are talking and actioning a completely different game plan and the market has yet to give it the attention and respect that it deserves, but it will.

Also, remember that the cash position at June 2018 was $40m. Whilst H2 likely added limited amounts to that, in part because Platanillo production in Dec was not sold, the likelihood is that by the end of March 2019, the total will have increased substantially.

However, the key point is that with limited capex outlays in H2, the $40m of cash on hand more than covers 2019 capex ($36m) for the company as it stands. Therefore, we have minimum 9 months of production that has gone straight onto the books plus the next 9 months of expanding production to come. Then there are the tax losses. The $6m purchase of 30% in CP0-5 from Petro Dorado in June 2015 came with $20m net in tax losses, which given what they have found there is turning out to be one heck of deal by itself.

So even with further land acquisitions and facility upgrades etc AMER should have plenty of cash to deal with it. What we need to see is the oil price maintain a good level this year (over $60 in my view) in order to allow them to build up the coffers for what will be the really big lift off in 2020. When all 6 blocks are being worked thus pushing production to far greater heights and protecting the company against any donwturn in oil prices. I believe the moves by Saudia Arabia and OPEC+ will deliver that and it couldn't come at a better time for AMER.

Morning all. A bit oif a curve ball this morning. I am sure a good few paused for a second when they saw that red flashing light.

The funding issues are for me a red herring. AMER has no debt and is now moving into the big time on several fronts. If they do indeed manage to spend their still very healthy cash reserves then it will be because they are succeeding. Capex wil expand because CP0-5 and Putamayo drilling warrant it. Therefore, if debt needs to be taken on in order to service that expansion then perhaps 2019 will be the time to instigate it. There is nothing wrong with that when done for the right reasons.

What today's announcement demonstrates is the fact that AMER are moving into the big time. At a time when capex is on the up and ONGC are clearly making big plans for land purchases and drilling/facility expansion, AMER still feel it is within their capabilities to spend $19m on an as yet undefined block in Putamayo. That demonstrates intent, confidence, and more importantly a lossening of the purse strings in order to really exploit the acreage that they have held for so long and thus far done very little with.

The pressure is building in the AMER pipework and it is going to blow soon. I appreciate that in the scheme of things Calao-1 isn't the be all and end all, but if it comes in as a sizeable discovery, then that may just be the catalyst that burst that pipe. At some point the market is going to wake up to what CP0-5 is and value it accordingly. No company keeps pumping out 3-5,000 bopd wells without it going unnoticed, just doesn't happen, whatever the perceived reduced interest from institution. Investment in oil is still strong and the best plays will receive the most love. AMER is fast rising into that zone.

@Coffeecups I would not wish to pretend to know the BCN team as well as I do the BMN one. What i will say is that I find it most interesting that BCN decided to put out this statement with a holdings RNS.

I would think they want to avoid any unnecessary panic from the expanding retail arm that they clearly recognise. Simply showing that another institutional investor is selling might have done that. Therefore, they have turned it into a positive by demonstrating their awareness of the situation, which as i say for me is a tell on how they will tackle the funding in Q2. If there truly is to be an equity raise, which the vast majority expect, then they need a stable SP and preferably one that demonstrates far more of the reality of what has been achieved here.

This statement for me demonstrates that the timing of the funding announcement will be post these institutional sell offs. Once they are gone then the SP should rise because it is clearly undervalued. Once it settles then we may see the funding come through. If that plays out then things will be looking very rosey here indeed.

@dougal66 But if the slack is worth picking up then where is the problem.

Changes in strategy by institutional investors can under the right circumstances present excellent opportunities fo retail investors. I believe this to be one and am acting accordingly. There is still likely a little way to go until they are completely cleared but the end is in sight, and more importantly the BCN management team have just openly admitted that they are paying close attention to these moves, which for me further supports my view that they will tread carefully with any equity raises until it has been fully resolved.

Clear the last of the bloackage and this stock is re-rating.

@leas thank you for that, more good information for shareholders.

I appreciate that ONGC have a good many projects all over the world but it is important to not underestimate the size of the finds at CP0-5 and what they mean for the overall prospectivity of the block. By the end of this year they are capable of signing off well over 100m in gross 2P reserves alone and the block has barely been scratched. More importantly given the speed with which the reserves are being declared compared to Llanos 34, plus the size of CP0-5 compared to Llanos 34, at the current rates and size of success this block should go on to produce well over 100k bopd. I appreciate ONGC Videsh are a lot bigger than that but even they would not be sniffing at 100K bopd production.

That aside, the Indico tender had the "tentative" drill period at 39 days and AMER reported on day 40. Mariposa was reported as being a 38 day drill in the spudding RNS and was reported on day 39. So the form is that AMER report as soon as the well establishes an oil column.

Calao is a directional well but we are already at day 46 and still no update. I am leaning towards a find and the conclusion that it is now about how much oil is there. Or are there oil expertsout there that can justify such an overrun on a dry well?

Good morning everyone.

Just catching up after a few days holiday.

I note the drop in V prices which is well worth keeping an eye on. However, even with this drop I have the current year average running at a very healthy $78.60 per kg after 15 weeks.

As a comparison, the full year 2018 average realised sale price was $74.95 per kg, which was a 7.7% discount on the advertised $81.20 per kg. However, we should not forget that the average Rand/dollar exchange for 2018 was just 13.2, whilst the 2019 YTD figure is running at 13.95 and rising. That is a 5.7% increase.

Using the 2018 average production cost of ZAR 260 per kg as a base line, that turns a $19,700 per mtv production cost into $18,640 per mtv. At circa 3,000 mtv production (if indeed achieved) that delivers upto a $3m increase EBITDA.

Therefore, the 7.7% is already on the back foot even before we start adding in any further production cost savings driven by increased production above 2,560 mtv. So current 2019 achievements price wise are solid although the pull back in V prices is surprising and needs to be monitored. What this is now all about front end, and i am merely talking front end, is what the company has and is going to achieve on the production side of things because that will deliver the greatest improvements to the profitability of the company in this phase. However, it is important to stress that the key take away for me right now is that Vametco has and is continuing to deliver more than enough cash flow to enable the current medium term plans to be implemented without having to place a strain on either the company or its investors.

The really big rewards here are now the medium term ones and in my opinion investors should not lose sight of that when becoming frustrated by the front end news flow.

Good morning everyone.

I see much talk of equity raises here and the mission to conclude any likely outcome.

As a new investor, (and i do very much respect that LTHs are in at much higher prices but I cannot help being what I am) for me it comes down to several fundamental points.

1. BCN's Sonora asset is one of the largest high quality lithium project in the world and is scalable (Germany FS to come), and it has a lower quartile cost position.

2. The first 20 years of its mine life is based on the concessions that are 100% owned by BCN.

3. The lithium carbonate price is expected to maintain a floor that is in line with the Sonora Feasability Study, which delivers a pre-tax NPV of $1.25 billion.

4. Current lithium battery grade prices are running at circa 20% higher than that.

Now those things are all very good and more than enough to ensure that such a poject will be delivered, when given sufficient time to do so. However, what we have here is strong evidence that there is significant interest in the project. Therefore, corporations, mining concerns, future customers, are taking an interest and expressing the same level of interest that investors here have clearly been seeing for a while, but it is they that count at the end of the day and only they.

However, the other important consideration here is the number of shares in issue. At just 134m shares there is a long way to go along the dilutive avenue before such actions would be detrimental to shareholders entering at these lower levels. When one considers the sort of numbers that are available once stage 2 is up and running then even substantial dilution will deliver considerable dividends when compared to the price one must pay for the shares today.

I would think that this would also apply to the vast majority of shareholders too but I am coming at this from a 'substantial' dilution based theoretical position because i wish to test worst case.

However, if the company comes up with a clever funding option based on further offtakes or perhaps even equity stakes in the front end 100% owned concessions, or indeed goes on to sell Sonora and develop Zinnwald instead, then the rewards for the vast majority here could well be substantial.

Therefore, for me, buying at these levels comes with a great deal of protection because the investment is long term, is attached to dividends, and can handle a worst case scenario along the lines of what i have described above but!

comes with the added attraction of a strong financing deal and/or sale, which itself is supported by the strength of the asset and the pricing market in which it operates.