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2019 Drilling Programme

"Amerisur is set to ramp up drilling in 2019, with up to ten wells planned, together with two potential side tracks in Platanillo. Given the potential of the CPO-5 block, a fully funded drilling programme is now underway to determine the prospectivity of the area within the LS3 play. In addition, Sol and Aguila are both planned for 2019"

There were 9 wells remaining on the 2019 campaign after Calao-1 with a now 10th well planned at Platanillo.

"In addition, a new well, Platanillo-26, will be drilled this year from Pad 3N."

Furthermore, the workover programme at Platanillo appears to be targeting Platanillo 22 next. Platanillo 22 was the biggest producing well at Platanillo post discovery at 1,000 bopd. That dropped away considerably in 2018 and played a large part in the company's production falling from 5,890 bopd in April of that year to 4,800 bopd in May.

This is demonstrated by the 5th July 2018 update where the company stated ;

"an organic treatment was performed on well Platanillo-22 which was partially successful, initially returning production to approximately 650 bopd. However, within a few days this volume fell to approximately 350 bopd."

If they can have the same level of success at Platanillo 22 as they did at Platanillo 8, then the top end figure of 4,000 bopd at Platanillo could well be achievable, which would set a very solid base for thus far 2,425 bopd coming out of CP0-5.

Platanillo - Pintadillo

"While the N sand was unsuccessful, potential hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs were confirmed in the U and the T sands. Production results indicate the well is located on the flank of those structures and we are reviewing the potential for further wells or a side track at Pintadillo."

So Pintadillo is alive be it the Platanillo field will be managed in a manner that keeps production steady ;

"Going forward our focus is to maintain production at the mature Platanillo field at 3-4,000 BOPD plateau, while accessing further upside on a discretionary and risk-balanced basis."

Morning all,

Yesterday I wrote a post comparing April 2018 to April 2019.

In that post I provided the follwing 2018 data ;

"On Fri 20th April the SP of AMER was 18.2p. This was post tax year end, post 2017 year end reserves, post production update for March, and post the full year results for 2017.

The position was as follows ;

20.7m 2P reserves (13.9m 1P reserves)
6,500 bopd current production
Brent at $70 (from lower base the previous year)

Full year results delivered 4,900 bopd average production, $41.3m cash, and EBITDA of $19.8m"

Everything in this year's results is better than those results except perhaps perceivably the current production (more of that in a minute).

2P reserves + 23.7%
Brent - Equal but the average price achieved this time is $64.7 per barrela nd not $50.
Full year production + 9%
Cash + 6.8%
EBITDA + 71.7%

So rock solid in terms of achievement with sufficient cash on hand to deliver the front end 2019 drill programme even with the $19.1m outlay for Put 8.

The real differences are the increase in 2P reserves and the EBITDA, which have pushed on significantly.

The only percevied negative is current production. In April 2018 the company was producing 6,500 bopd, whilst Q1 2019 is signalled as being 4,600 bopd. However, the report states that Indico-1 is now producing 4,932 bopd, which raises AMER share from 330 bopd (RNS 26th March) to 1,480 bopd. There is also the Platanillo 8 workover which according to the report "increasing stable production by 820 BOPD."

This took place in Q1 so was likely partially attributable to the Q1 4,600 bopd figure.

However, the report also states "CPO-5 reached over 1.275m barrels of oil at the end of 2018 and average Q1 2019 production was 1,600 BOPD net." What that says is that Platanillo achieved 3,000 bopd during Q1. That figure is highly likley now running higher as the full 820 bopd will now be fully factored in, although pending workovers will alter that figure as we move forward.

If we therefore say that Platanillo is running at circa 3,250 bopd, then with Mariposa-1 steady at 3,150 bopd (945 bopd net) and Indico now at 4,932 bopd (1,480 bopd net), then current production at the start of Q2 is around 5,675 bopd.

Note - It would have been good if the company could have provided this 'current' figure.

In my post from yesterday I wrote ;

"Post Indico 2 I expect production to be very close to 6,500 bopd (Current 5,400 bopd + circa 800-1,000 bopd from Indico 2 + Platanillo workovers) with another 3-4m in reserves added to the current 2P total of 25.6m (see 22nd Jan RNS assuming 40ft of net additional pay at Indico)."

5,400 v 5,675 bopd.

So with presumably Indico-2 to come and furthe rworkovers and now a new well at Platanillo, the figures demonstrate solid progress and that 18.2p figure should be the least we can expect given the progress on reserves and the potential that lies before us this year.

@Pickedpeck Having read the transcript and presentation from OXY I do recognise that their plans conflict with those of AMER.

I would make a couple of points though. Firstly, AMER are the operator not OXY and AMER release their latest presentation at around about the same time as OXY, so they really should be in tune with one another. Whilst AMER are continuously accused of delays and not informing investors, I find it hard to conclude that they would release a brand new presentation that already had no chance of success on the day it was printed.

OXY are a very big player and are perhaps less inclined or incentivised to push dates prior to having all of the information at their finger tips. Stating Put 9 commences in 2020 but achieving earlier will bring very little unwanted attention to their BOD.

Secondly, AMER announced that the environmental studies wfor Put 9 were completed in the 22nd Jan RNS ;

"Environmental studies have been completed for the construction of a 10.2km road from the Platanillo field to the Coendu prospect in the PUT-9/12 blocks. The civil works on this access road are expected to commence within six weeks and drilling of the first of up to six wells on Coendu is expected to begin in Q3 2019."

If the above statement is indeed correct then the civil works should have started in March and we should expect an update on this in the full year accounts tomorrow.

The previous 3.8km road and civil works for the Platanillo Pintadillo pad were scheduled as being 65 days in their RNS of 4th April 2018

On 24th July 2018 said civil works were stated as being almost complete following heavy rains, so the reality was more like 90-100 days.

The team may have better fortune at Put 9 but what it says is that the actual date for Put 9 to start drilling cannot be so accurately determined. Perhaps OXY in their experience know that and so have gone long with a view to impressing, rather than short with a possibility of disappointing.

We shall see in tomorrow's update.

In order to drive my point home, if Put 8 can deliver 1,000 bopd wells then they would be far better cash generators than even Indico-1 at 30% ownership and discounted Brent prices at the wellhead, when 100% owned.

Investors here talk about Platanillo being the real issue here right now for the vey same fact.

The emergence of CP0-5 and the OXY deal present AMER with the chance to not only increase their cash flows, but to concentrate them more intensely on blocks that quietly deliver far greater benefits to the company.

The decision and ability to spend $19m on Put-8 being a prime example. I look forward to reading that the authorisation has been received, and trust that AMER as operator will now drive home the deal with Ecopetrol to use the neighbouring Cohembi-2 pad for the first drill.

@zeusfurla Thank you and may i say welcome aboard. It is difficult to place an exact investment window on AMER but I would certainly like to see what the initial first phase outcomes are for CP0-5 and the OXY blocks, before I review things.

That for me would be circa the end of 2020.

In the meantime POO is making a sturdy fight of things although I am not in any way greedy and neither should the Saudis be. A 2019 average around $65 would serve AMER's needs and plans just fine.

Whilst on I have been looking a little closely at the past data and I cannot help but conclude that the Put-8 Q2 drill must now be under pressure. Whilst I feel the focus will be far greater with AMER as sole 100% owner of the block (Vetra were clearly looking for an out and costs were being controlled tightly), there is now the issue of approval for the change of ownership from ANH. As the 20th March RNS clearly states ;

"In the interim, while awaiting approval by ANH, preparations for the exciting drilling programme in the block will continue."

I can therefore see the drill being pushed back (groans from the AMER crowd once more) but for once for very good reason. Put 8 has initial prospective resources of circa 32MMBO and as the RNS states ;

"The opportunity to increase our working interest and acquire operatorship was very attractive to us, consolidating even further our position around the OBA pipeline and bringing more operational flexibility."

With Platanillo demonstrating itself to be an ageing field the emergence of Put 8 as a further localised block that can take full advantage of the OBA $3.90 per barrel transport costs, could just turn out to be a very lucrative venture. If that means waiting a further 3 months for the initial drill then so be it.

Some contributors here have talked about a further farm in at Put 8, which may also be true. Either way AMER will make money on their $19m outlay, a move that to date has gained no recognition in the valuation.

@SloppyGuiseppe Thank you for the article from the DLO AFrica Power Roundtable. There are some very positive words that if materializing will act as a great boost to BE's efforts in S.A.

I was particularly glad to see the following statement ;

"The IPP office said that shortly after the IRP is finalised it will release a request for proposals for an expedited bid round for renewable energy. It was confirmed by the IPP office that “expedited” would mean that the qualification criteria will be less stringent than in previous bid windows, with the aim of achieving a quicker evaluation process."

So there is a definite recognition and support for further IPP rounds, which is clearly being driven by the concerns over the eskom's ability to supply energy to the economy.

"Eskom, which is in the process of finalising a pilot project using battery storage technology, will undertake a procurement process facilitated by World Bank funding to install battery solutions at 50-90 transmission sites around South Africa."

We knew this already but the talk of 50-90 sites is new. The World bank previously talked about 42, although teh average size was always stated as being circa 4MW, which given there are 360MW of battery storage allowed is uncannily that exact amount.

"a speaker from Eskom, who said Eskom was open to assistance from the private sector and invited suggestions and proposals to help alleviate its constraints."

Again very positive and I can think of no one who is better placed or has better 'levers' at their disposal than Mikhail Nikomarov of Bushveld Energy and their demonstration VRFB that is now under full test at Eskom.

An open minded Eskom that is free of corruption at board level, that has a very clear and present supply problem, that is openly encouraging "suggestions and proposals" from the private sector, is in as good a place as a young battery developer could ever ask for. Particularly when said battery developer now has the chance to prove their technology on the ground and demonstrate that what they have down on paper actually works in the field.

I like.

Good morning everyone.

With the 2018 results now upon us I thought I would offer a view on the under value here compared to April 2018.

On Fri 20th April the SP of AMER was 18.2p. This was post tax year end, post 2017 year end reserves, post production update for March, and post the full year results for 2017.

The position was as follows ;

20.7m 2P reserves (13.9m 1P reserves)
6,500 bopd current production
Brent at $70 (from lower base the previous year)

Full year results delivered 4,900 bopd average production, $41.3m cash, and EBITDA of $19.8m

Post Indico 2 I expect production to be very close to 6,500 bopd (Current 5,400 bopd + circa 800-1,000 bopd from Indico 2 + Platanillo workovers) with another 3-4m in reserves added to the current 2P total of 25.6m (see 22nd Jan RNS assuming 40ft of net additional pay at Indico).

Thus current 2P reserves will be around 29m, which should deliver 1P reserves that then match the 2P total from April 2018.

Brent is again at $70 but it isn't coming from the low base of 2017 where AMER saw realised prices of just $50. Thus the $41.3m cash is going to be higher and EBITDA with it, given that H1 2018 EBITDA was already $24.3m on its own.

I could make the argument that the future drilling programme is far more exciting given the partnerships and activity at CP0-5, but one could make an argument that the same applied in 2018 and did not materialise. I would argue that the activity from the partners this year will see that change.

That aside, the SP is trading at just 13.5p today. Indico-2 still has to be drilled but when it is and it highly likely delivers the 40ft of additional net oil that is the 'conservative' independant assessment, will/can the SP remain or indeed be at these levels.

I appreciate that the market sentiment to AMER is perhaps negative due to its previous failings but the very same market paid 18.2p for a stock that will soon have increased its reserves by 50% in a market that is delivering far better EBITDA.

I expect things to turn because the fundamentals are there and they are backed by some now far more likely future events.

A return even to 18.2p would be a 34% rise from here and there is an argument to be had that that would still be too cheap on the revised reserves alone.

It is frustrating to see the SP being beaten up but the evidence says it won't last and the bottom should soon be in.

When the updated presentation was released back in Feb I posted my suspicions regarding what had happened to Malcolm Curror. These were further compounded by the fact that he was also removed from the presentation associated with the site visit at the end of Jan.

The excuse given at the time was that Mr Curror was working on projects at head office. That may well have been the case but it is rather unprofessional in my view to remove the CEO from a showcase event for the very thing he is Chief Executive for, whether he is there on the day or not.

After today's announcement my suspicion are confirmed and Mr Curror as CEO of Vametco has quite rightly taken responsibility for the failings of 2018.

For all the positives that wexist with BMN and its future we must not ignore the fact that the BOD stated that 2018 production guidance would be 3,680 mtv. They achieved 2,560 mtv. That is quite a drop.

As CEO of the plant it was Mr Curror's task to deliver this guidance and to ensure that his team, his workforce and the plant itself was set up in a manner that enabled that to happen. Unfortunately, as the year unfolded it demonstrated that none of these elements were achieving that. We must remembr that BMN's BOD took over an operating plant with no prior in house knowledge of how to do that. I would think in the early stages of ownership they were heavily reliant on what the Vametco team told them.

The statement that Mr Curror "will continue to provide consulting services to Bushveld" is for me the equivalent of being discharged with full honours and retainment of benefits.

Such wording is the professional way of handling such a senior managers's removal. I would think that said consulting won't go on for very long or we will hear very little more about Mr Curror in the future.

From what i can see BMN have acted vvery professionally and having recognised the failings have acted and acted strongly. The new GM is clearly the signal for a new page in the life of Vametco and i trust they have appointed well.

The appointment of Hiten Ooka as Group Head of Finance is for me a succession move. Geoff Sproule is no spring chicken and there needs to be ample time for a new finance director to bed in. That's my view.

All in all BMN is growing and growing fast. New appointment such as these go a long way to taking the pressure off the existing team and bring stronger and younger experience to the table. I trust they will not be the last.

As for the dividend policy update, for me that was always the right time to announcement it because without the accounts it could not happen. That said by being included with the accounts it means that the policy can now be turned into a payment.

Just to solidify my argument, the SP on the day before Calao-1 was announced was 16.86p. Today it is 13.7p. That is an 18.75% drop for a wildcat duster that was designed to investigate the outer reaches of what is already a very large discovery.

Furthermore, after the Indico discovery the SP retraced from its 19.9p to just below 17p on 28th Jan 2019 and stayed range bound at that level right up until the Calao-1 announcement.

On 28th Jan 2019 Brent oil was trading at $59.50 a barrel. Today it is trading at $69.50 and has consistently risen since that date. AMER has had absolutely no benefit from that even though the business has had 2 clear months of production that has taken advantage of those price rises. There are other factors i could mention such as Put 8 but it isn't needed. The evidence in my view is clear that a sustained seller(s) is hampering the progress of the SP, which only changes when good news is delivered and the seller either cannot stem the immediate tide or they wait for the next trading range in which to sell into.

Sich events are a factor in investing and can take a very long time to end, but end they do and AMER has more than enough firepower this year to see it off. When it does end then the reaction could well be substantial and it could come at a point when followers of this stock least expect it.

@garyobrien with all due respect I find your take on this company to be far too strong given the reality of what is really happening here.

The stock right now is clearly not moving freely, which points to one or several larger holders reducing their positions. It has been going on for a very long time and it is no doubt exhausting for some smaller holders who are perhaps losing patience and selling up as well. Who knows perhaps that is the tactic in itself.

It is absolutely clear from the reaction to the duster at Calao-1 that this is the case. There are more than enough positive catalysts that counter this 'negative,' which given the reduced level of importance that it had should not have ;

a. had such a strong affect in the first place but ;
b. having done so should have allowed for recovery in the SP once the overall picture became more clear.

That hasn't happened, which points to a seller(s) that wish to exit but in a manner that takes advantage of the SP at its current point rather than driving it down further. So they are effectively balancing the market where ever the SP stands, which means they are likely all about exiting rather than shorting in my view.

Good news will push the SP to a new trading point at which point the seller will take ove runtil they are finished. When they are gone then things will change around here and the progress, however much it cumulatively is at that point, will begin to kick in.

There may be manipulation, games, whatever, but with enough patience all those things are left behind and the company will find something closer to its true worth. All it need do is keep delivering on the new set of fundamentals that we now see.

@Buzzzipster Good morning and thank you for posting the information on Mapochs.

I am slightly confused by your take on this development so please excuse me if my take is also slightly off centre.

Vanchem isn't mentioned anywhere in thsi new information but it of course has a 35% non economic interest in Mapochs, which brings with it the right to the vanadium ore that is produced there and was the reason why it went into business rescue in the first place.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3450971/[UPDATED]-Vanchem-declares-force-majeure-on-Mapochs-business-rescue-Evraz-Highveld-confirms-temporary.html

If Mapochs is/will be back in production then that right remains. Of course that only applies as long as Vanchem is owned and executed in the same manner.

The most sensible conclusion is that this is correct. However, having gone into business rescue, which means a business rescue practioner would have taken over the business retrenching the workforce as we know. The question arises as to who now owns Vanchem. Can Duferco take control once more having made such a move? I doubt it and surely not under the same operating company.

We know that Vanchem was placed in business rescue in Nov 2015 and closed its doors in Jan 2016, and by May 2017 the workers still had not received their pay. So there is at least one line of creditors that were having trouble getting paid.

https://witbanknews.co.za/93670/old-workers-vanchem-will-still-wait-money/

There will of course have been others hence the need for the business rescue in the first place (see attached document on business rescue in S.A.)

https://www.clearygottlieb.com/-/media/organize-archive/cgsh/files/2017/publications/emrj-spring-2017/overview-of-the-south-african-business-rescue-process.pdf

So whilst the Vanchem name may be swimming around still, the question still persists as to who now owns it? The business rescue practioner is and has always been near silent on the matter. Perhaps Durferco have taken it out of business rescue under a new name, but is that really legally possible. If so then surely every business that didin't want to pay its bills would simply do the same.

If its not true then there is potentially another owner out there or the business is still being run by the business rescue practioner. I very much doubt a practioner would sanction Vanchem spedning money on joining Vanitec, which it has. So there must surely be new ownership but who is it?

I have said for some time that after Vametco Vanchem is the next best fit for BMN and until I see documented evidence that it isn't possible, then it remains on my radar, be it not so definite as I had once thought, given the actions and indications from BMN. We shall see.

Apologies, I was updating my notes as i wrote that post.

The first line should read ;

"I have been having another look at my numbers and for me it does look very much like H2 will add arolund $16.5m in EBITDA to the H1 figure of $24m"

I have been having another look at my numbers and for me it does look very much like H2 will add arolund $15m in EBITDA to the H1 figure of $24m

This is based on revenues for H2 being around $51.5m (-24%) down from $67.9m in H1, which is due to the company selling around 763k boe compared to 1.078m boe in H1. This will be affected by the 113k of Dec production from Platanillo, which wasn't sold due to lower oil prices.

Ebitda for H1 was $24m. Subtract 24% from this and we have $16.5m. H1 then had $15m in Capex, working capital movements and tax. I would feel safe subtracting $5m from this.

That places net cash generation for H2 at around $6.5m with those 113k boe from Platanillo still to come.

That should still deliver a slight uplift in cash on hand with my range coming in at between $50-55m. This is the key update for me though because with AMER capex commitments for the whole of 2019 coming in at just $36.3m, we will see that there is plenty of room to support expanded drilling be it this year or next.

That is why the $19m buyout of Put 8 isn't looking so problematic.

What that also means is that 2019 production cash generation should all go towards boosting the coffers in readiness for a very busy 2020, which if there is early success at Put 8, 9 and 12 as well as CP0-5, could bring a much higher capex figure from then on.

In the meantime, if the low risk Indico-2 delivers a good result then the remaining $11.5m of capex for CP0-5 will be covered by the 3 drill successes, thus reducing the $36.3m to $25m, which would only be half of the current cash on hand with all of Platanillo and any other 2019 successes to add to it.

Just my thoughts on what I expect next week.

@bigsmoke Good morning. Yes i noted that also, rather bizarre. Are ONGC Videsh following UK BBs? Why on earth would they include something like that? It couldn't possibly be for anything India related surely.

Moving on.

Thank you JTD for posting. I note on page 55 item 3 that the contractor will have 60 calendar days to complete the works.

One could argue that ONGC are simply making their preparations early seeing as the drill is signalled by AMER as being carried out in Q4.

The tenders are due to commence review from 24.04.2019. This shouldn't take more than 4 weeks. Then 4 weeks for mobilisation and one could argue that the drill site could be ready for the start of Sept. That's only 1 month short of the AMER timeline (employing very loose timescales).

The Indico-2 well is due to spud in the next 2 weeks. That's a circa 2 month cycle for each well, please correct me if you feel I am wrong. If they do attempt to push on with Indico-2, 3 and Pavo-Real then they have circa 6 months minimum of work ahead of them before they even get to Sol-1, which is currently signalled as being first ahead of Aguila-1 (However, Aguila is technically on the way there to Sol-1).

Still 6 months from the middle of April is mid October and they already have Sol-1 drill ready. So it is interesting to see they are keen to get Aguila prepared before this.

@Knuttie I understand and what you feel is what you feel but sometimes particularly in investing our feelings can lead us astray, and I wouldn't want you to do so for the wrong reasons be it your choice and your world in the end.

Moving on from our discussion and talking more generally.

I do feel that this BB and indeed the company's success can be their own worst enemy. There are a good many investors who have made life changing sums (be they perhaps still only on paper) and that presents a whole new set of problems and thoughts that many perhaps never truly expected they would be lucky enough to deal with, although that was their primary goal. That can bring out new emotions and thoughts, which perhaps haven't been exprienced before and they perhaps aren't all as positive as we may have expected.

To reach for something and lose everything trying is perhaps not as hard to bear as achieving something and failing to hold onto it. That fear and worry brings new emotions and actions, which we have to learn to deal with or fail trying.

I said many months ago when the Vametco deal was finally sealed that the greatest resolve would be that needed for the journey up, rather the journey to that point. That's not to say that anyone should remain fully exposed or risk their health reaching for something that they perhaps don't really truly need. Its only money in the end.

I believe that BMN is now completed its first phase of devlelopment and is plateauing in preparation for its next phase. That BMN is a vanadium miner is a given now. That it enjoys elevated prices is known and considered. What it does to expand upon that is now the question and the phase in which the next set of substantial returns are possible. It will take time to achieve and things may well move sideways but i feel very strongly that this team has a very good handle on those macro developments, which will override the more minor failings that are currently perceived.

In the latest presentation slide 37 on the right hand side the company states this ;

"The 74% underlying interest in Vametco Alloys (Pty) Ltd was achieved with a total cash outlay of approximately US$48 million, which is the equivalent of ~1x H1 2018 EBITDA"

That is the management team I am backing because that sort of dealmaking isn't a one off. Lemur proves that and we have a move to 10,000 mtv and VRFB project development on the horizon.

Everybody else is scratching around trying to find circa $300m to serviced by substantial debt, built and ramped up. BMN is going to deliver 7,000 more mtv, an electrolyte plant, a new cost effective resource, and VRFB development projects, for around half of that and in less time that those new mines could ever hope to be built.

That's where i find my resolve.

@Knuttie On this long and winding path what do these sharks and vultures actually achieve? How do they detract from this story. Do they change the course of the path we are on? Do they alter the fundamentals?

With all due respect the words 'disaster' and 'collosal' don't belong in the description of what we are talking about. Acquiring Vametco for $16.5m when prices of vanadium prices went on to hit $125 a kg was 'collosal.'

What you are describing is an event, which in my eyes is at best a black mark on BMN's management card, which potentially reduces the level of trust in any future dates that are then provided. That is noteworthy but it is not a disaster and it shouldn't be allowed to fester and spread unnecessarily. That is the mind playing games on oneself and placing the reasons for being invested in the wrong order of importance.

That self imposed deadline was 31st March. We are at 3rd April and the hangman still insists on gathering his noose. A little early for me.

This company this year, plans to announce a major brownfield expansion, that will set it on a path to 10,000 mtv, without the need for major debt. Where will that place this discussion on a dividend policy (policy not payment) in the greater and grander picture? How collosal would it be then?

No investment is perfect. Perfection would be bad because it would remove the advantage gained from calculating which of all these wart carrying stocks are the prettiest. BMN's journey isn't a straight line to riches and its management are not without fault. There is room for criticism and must do better, but judgement should be centred around their overall performance throughout the year and years that we choose to remain, plus the years that we have already wtinessed.

Vametco performance in 2019 is a far greater pending event than any dividend policy deadline. This company needs to demonstrate that it can get that plant up to a level that is in line with the fan fare that was made against phase 2 expansion to 3,750 mtv. That's a true fundamental here that will test the management's strengths but even failure with that will be forgivable, if and when that 10,000 mtv comes in and they begin to land large scale mandates, especially through Eskom.

10,000 mtv takes the discussion over the majority of vanadium prices off the table. Large scale mandates removes it completely.

I don't know you personally but I have witnessed your contributions here for many years and I have never seen you like this. You have certainly weathered bigger storms and managed to place them in the correct box all the way along.

Remember this. Rightly or wrongly BMN announced a desire to return cash to shareholders just 2 years after it started producing revenues. How many new miners achieve that? Why? Because they achieved a world class acquisition that employed the target's own inventory with no debt. What does that say about what they can and will go on to do?.

@Daisydog caution is good, as is a good risk strategy and the ability to sleep well at night. One should always guard against greed or perceived need, allowing us to place our health under threat.

If the heat is too hot there is nothing wrong with leaving the kitchen to prevent being burned. Live to fight another day. Life is more than just the weeks and months we see immediately before us. BMN isn't life and should not define it. It is simply a very good opportunity to do a lot better financially so long as the heat isn't too hot.

@Alfacomp Of course! I already have mine. .

(2 of 2)

LTHs have suffered far greater set backs in far darker times delivered by far greater villains and they never waivered from their path. In all of that time that this BB waited and waited for the story to be pieced together, there were detractors, shorters, mischievous elements, heck perhaps even the devil himself came to call, and they had far more weaponary at their disposal than they do today.

Today we find ourselves in a vanadium market with a clear structural deficit and we are a key producer with the largest highest grade resources in the world and the cash finally to get at them.

Today we find ourselves in a market littered with energy storage news and opportunities, and approaching a time when Eskom will release a 1,440MWh battery project into the S.A. market, a local market BMN helped define and will be ready for.

Today we find ourselves waiting for BMN to deliver its strategy to deliver not 2,750 mtv of Vametco at $3 per lb but 10,000 mtv at $15 per lb, driven by yet more low capex brownfield.

It takes time and a great deal of patience to deliver the sort of rewards that came to LTHs this year and it will likely take more time to deliver the next rewarding leg of this journey, but the reality is that those long term fundamentals have not diminished just because the price of vanadium has reduced or the company missed a self imposed deadline for a dividend policy announcement.

Patience is and will always remain the key discipline here. Many will say it but not all will heed it. Patience carried us through those 14 months and delivered the returns that came with it. Patience will carry me through the next phase, however long it may be, I trust a great many of those LTHs will be there with me at the end of it.