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Further to my earlier post regarding the already proposed and defined 2 well development plan for Repsol, I took a closer look at the likely costs that could be expected to get such a field into production.

Firstly, there is the appraisal well.

Chariot have already been involved in a drill off Morroco with the Rabatt Deep 1 well.

That well whilst is far deeper water than Anchois-1 (1,110m v 388m), was drilled to to a depth of 3,180m in 48 days. That's very loosely about 66m a day.

Anchois-1 was drilled to 2,435m but the appraisal well is planning to test the Gas Sand C structure, which is deeper but slide 18 of the latest presentation demonstrates that the Anchois-1 well drilled deeper than that already but it was outside the line of Gas Sands C.

In order to create a safety margin, if we say that they will drill the same depth again, which is unlikely, then at 66m a day the drill should take around 37 days. If we add in 20 days for completion, then we are at 57 days.

The enclosed June 2018 presentation (slide 6) demonstrates current drill ship costs. Remember RD-1 was drilled by the drill ship Poseiden. So there is form.

On that slide the current day rates for such ships is around $200k. At 57 days we are talking around $11.5m for the appraisal drill. If we add 20% for contingences then we are at $14m.

Now to achieve that same goal Chariot gave away 40% and operatorship to ENI, but that was a wildcat drill with no previous successes.

Lixus has a proven discovery with a known minimum 100BCF reserve applied to it by Repsols team.

The process to establish the best route to market and indeed the market that it will enter will demonstrate the feasability of the development plan prior to a partner being sort. Said partner isn't going to need 40% and operatorship to be willing to carry that sot of appraisal drill cost, given the existing information at hand. The two scenarios are therefore completely different.

Between the information in those 2 posts, there is enough evidence to demonstrate that the project is feasible, has sufficient known reserves, proven by the previous owners, and that the appraisal well is cost effective.

If those factors are known and accpeted, then the 2-3 month news cycle here will be sufficiently positive enough to allow a substantial re-rate from these levels, which itself will give Chariot greater options for the funding of the appraisal well and the securing of a partner for the development.

http://www.chariotoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Corporate-Presentation-June.pdf

I have been taking a much closer look at the Chariot Lixus license in order to gauage their chances of success.

I appreciate that LTHs here are a little dubious as to their chances but from what I have seen the asset looks very strong given its geographical location and proposed market.

The enclosed slideshow is a previous project report for a field plan conducted for the previous Repsol led partnership. It demonstrates that there was a clear plan to develop the play as a 1 field 2 well play with futurer tie ins. This is highly likelly driven by the high netbacks that can be achieved in the Morrocan market and is essentially what Chariot are now proposing.

The plan describes a subsea installation with 1 manifold and 2 subsea well satellites. The author describes the current expected reserves to be 100BCF from Anchois 1.

The only potential negative I can find is the comment about "potential restrictions with gas bearing sands detected.

The selection of the subsea technology is described as follows ;

"The Field Development contains a Subsea, Offshore Flowline and Pigging Line infrastructure. The concept selection carry out is a Subsea System tied back and exported to Onshore Plant (“Subsea Wells Tie-back to Onshore Plant”) via flow lines and control umbilical."

"The field itself shall be designed with flexibility for new tie-in of the new discoveries further in the area."

So very similar to Chariot and it looks very much like they are looking into the very same plan that Repsol has already put together back in 2011.

It goes on to say that the design allows for ;

"A considerable reduction of the CAPEX, due to a minor controls requirements and the installation Cost, in contrast the Net increases in Oil production"

The english translation isn't perfect but the gist of what he is saying is very clear.

In essence there is already a very simple field development plan in place that requires just one further appraisal well (that is planned by Chariot for next year) in order to achiev this field development plan and go into production.

There is already a Repsol recognised 100BCF reserve from Gas sand A and B. It is not going to take a great del more success in and around the Anchois discovery and its satellites to achieve the phase 1 parameters, and the above scheme allows for a low cost solution, which can have additional wells added to it.

It isn't the whole story but this plan at the very least demonstrates that the feasability study is going to demonstrate an affordable solution even with limited further success with the drill bit. With netbacks in Morroco running at $8-9/mcf, a very profitable simple field development plan looks likely, and that isn't priced in here at all.

https://de.slideshare.net/JoseVTaboada/anchois-1-oilgas-field

For those interested, please ignore the first post. The title box was automatically generated from my list.

I appreciate that there is a great deal of concern being generated by the fall in vanadium prices, which is having an adverse affect on the BMN share pirce, but the current FeV price does not represents where BMN is right now.

With the 4 week lag in realised prices, I have the current YTD average price running at circa $73 per kg, after an expected $50 per kg w/e 12th April.

That places BMN 19 weeks into their year.

My average price for 2018 was circa $78 per kg against a BMN reported $75 per kg. So a 3.85% divergence across the entire year.

If i employ the same discount to 2019 then the current achieved price is running at circa $70. That's just $5 below the 2018 achieved average price, which delivered $108m in EBITDA at 2,573 mtv sold.

I appreciate the current price sits some way below this level at $50 and every week it stays there it will reduce the YTD figure. However, said prices have only been below $70 for 4 weeks of the 19 we have had this year. So whilst there is room for being wary, it should be considered against the bigger picture.

The Q1 report is due within the next 2 weeks. My own view is that we will see improvements starting to take affect. i don't for one minute believe that Q1 will be the srtongest production month but it should demonstrate an ability to achieve stronger production result than 2018.

The current $5 per kg fall in prices from 2018 equates to around $10.5m in lost EBITDA, when employing the 2018 conversion rates.

At $70 per kg, around 270 mtv of increased production would cancel out that drop. That would place Vametco full year at just 2,840 mtv. That for me is well within reach.

So right now with 19 weeks of the 2019 year under their belts (37%) the results have every chance of being very close to those of 2018.

The higher the production for 2019 pushes beyond 2,840 mtv the lower the average price is allowed to fall to achieve the same $108m EBITDA result.

There are of course upgrade and investment costs to consider but these add further value in other ways. The transformation programme to reach a steady 3,400 mtv remember requires no additional capital investment.

That's the base line.

Then we have the pending announcements of which the BE business case details and the path to 10,000 mtv lie soundly at the top. They are stated as being this year and will be joined b y the tender announcements from Eskom (signposted mid year), which will for me likely have the BE leasing model and business model as its forerunner, because that is when things start to get really serious.

I have posted previously that for me 2020 is the really big year here becasue that is when the integrated model enters the picture. However, there is much to play for in 2019 and much being achieved and the distraction of the current FeV price is in danger of distracting LTHs away from the real prizes here, at a time when its influence is perhaps not as great as one might be led to think.

I appreciate that there is a great deal of concern being generated by the fall in vanadium prices, which is having an adverse affect on the BMN share pirce, but the current FeV price does not represents where BMN is right now.

With the 4 week lag in realised prices, I have the current YTD average price running at circa $73 per kg, after an expected $50 per kg w/e 12th April.

That places BMN 19 weeks into their year.

My average price for 2018 was circa $78 per kg against a BMN reported $75 per kg. So a 3.85% divergence across the entire year.

If i employ the same discount to 2019 then the current achieved price is running at circa $70. That's just $5 below the 2018 achieved average price, which delivered $108m in EBITDA at 2,573 mtv sold.

I appreciate the current price sits some way below this level at $50 and every week it stays there it will reduce the YTD figure. However, said prices have only been below $70 for 4 weeks of the 19 we have had this year. So whilst there is room for being wary, it should be considered against the bigger picture.

The Q1 report is due within the next 2 weeks. My own view is that we will see improvements starting to take affect. i don't for one minute believe that Q1 will be the srtongest production month but it should demonstrate an ability to achieve stronger production result than 2018.

The current $5 per kg fall in prices from 2018 equates to around $10.5m in lost EBITDA, when employing the 2018 conversion rates.

At $70 per kg, around 270 mtv of increased production would cancel out that drop. That would place Vametco full year at just 2,840 mtv. That for me is well within reach.

So right now with 19 weeks of the 2019 year under their belts (37%) the results have every chance of being very close to those of 2018.

The higher the production for 2019 pushes beyond 2,840 mtv the lower the average price is allowed to fall to achieve the same $108m EBITDA result.

There are of course upgrade and investment costs to consider but these add further value in other ways. The transformation programme to reach a steady 3,400 mtv remember requires no additional capital investment.

That's the base line.

Then we have the pending announcements of which the BE business case details and the path to 10,000 mtv lie soundly at the top. They are stated as being this year and will be joined b y the tender announcements from Eskom (signposted mid year), which will for me likely have the BE leasing model and business model as its forerunner, because that is when things start to get really serious.

I have posted previously that for me 2020 is the really big year here becasue that is when the integrated model enters the picture. However, there is much to play for in 2019 and much being achieved and the distraction of the current FeV price is in danger of distracting LTHs away from the real prizes here, at a time when its influence is perhaps not as great as one might be led to think.

Good morning all,

Reading the Annual Report, as things stand, i would say that the drill programme for 2019 will be mainly centred around CP0-5, which has upto 5 drills attached to it.

There is an additional drill planned at Platanillo, which looks certain to be this year. That makes 5-6 drills as a given. If the 2nd rig is negotiated then great but the accelerated programme at CP0-5 is most likely to come in 2020.

With regards to PUT-8 ;

On page 8 of the Annual Report under the 2019 drill programme there is a note which states ;

"As neither Gran Tierra Energy nor Vetra will be partners in Put-8 at the time of drilling, it is unlikely that drilling from
the Suroriente block will be attractive. As such, applications have been made to drill Miraparriba-1 and Bienparado-1
from within the block. The order of drilling Miraparriba-1 and Bienparado-1 on Put-8 will be determined based on when the applications are approved."

Now there is clear evidence of clouding the picture, which i do not like. Burying this in the Annual Report is for me a little naughty.

Having looked moe closely at things though, I do now see the clear substantial benefot that being operator of Put-8 now brings. Clearly there has been a game of patience involved in waiting for Vetra to fold their cards but it has presented a wonderful future opportunity for AMER.

If we return to slide 19 of the Feb 2019 presentation, there we can find the Miraparriba-1 (1) and Bienparado-1 (2) prospects.

A close look at the map shows that the Bienparado-1 prospect sits right next door to the OBA pipeline at the south end of the Platanillo block. The approvals for the 2 drills have been submitted at the same time so the timeframes should surely be similar, although a drill right next door to producing assets is surely has the better chances.

Put 8 will not get drilled until those approvals come through, a timescale i could not find a comparison for. However, when they do then I cannot see why as operator, AMER would start at Miraparriba-1 when all of the infrastructure is already in place right next door to the other prospect at Bienparado-1. If that is the case then once the approvals come through, AMER has a 14MMBOE prospect that has minimal trasnportation costs at $3.50 per barrel and is 100% owned.

http://www.amerisurresources.com/images/rns-pdfs/Investor-Presentation-Feb-2019.pdf

Put 9 and 12 will be all about the start of the civial works, which are now touted as being Q2 when they were signposted for March. I have a feeling these drills will now slip into 2020.

At now +6,000 bopd with 5-6 drills to come and +$70 Brent, I am satisfied that

I note also on page 8 that the running order for CP0-5 has been altered ;

Its now Indico appraisal 1, 2, Sol, Aguila, then Pavo-Real. So it looks like Pavo has been shunted out, which i also like.

The RSI is showing oversold. I would think Indico appraisal 1 will signal the reversal.

As the following enclosed link demonstrates, the demand side of the market in lithium is expanding at a substantial pace and it is

"Still nowhere near enough tier on capacity for EVs let alone energy storage"

More mines are needed and those with lower first quartile costs will be first in line and will create the greatest interest.

I would argue that despite the current share price the market in which BCN is seeking its funding is now stronger than it was when they last tried to raise money in July last year. The SP is affected by market dynamics and past history, which can run out of sink with the true fundamentals of the business and the market in which it wishes to operate.

Hence why the BCN BOD are so confident about closing out funding this quarter.

https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1116275171776761856

Sorry I would like to just calrify a sentence there. It should have read ;

"The current pre tax is NPV $1.25 billion, so the current $50m valuation still looks cheap against that figure"

Also, the point i was trying to make is one should be careful to underestimate the dynaimcs of the market. That +12% sell off not only place a lot of weight on the sell side of things but it also put a lot of buyers off who may have been interested in the improving lithium market sentiment but reluctant to catch a falling knife.

The knife has now finished falling and those buyers are back and now it is about progress made, quality of the asset, likelihood of success etc etc.

@abd1991 I am going to challenge that argument a little if I may.

There is clear evidence that over the last 6-7 months there has been upwards of (conservatively) 12% of the company sold by iis status shareholders (Blackrock, candence and Capital).

Their policies were clearly communicate and the market had every chance to see that it was happening and therefore place the brakes on any buying, knowing that if it waited then a better price could be achieved.

In this period the fundamentals have at worst not changed but highly likely improved.

Lithium carbonate pricing has demonstrated that it is capable of holding above the Sonora $11,000 FS employed levels, despite the fears last year of over supply. In addition, a number of major car manufacturers have made moves to significantly ramp up their production of EVs, thus supporting the belief that lithium carbonate prices will at the very least hold above that level for the foreseeable future.

Sonora is fully designed with all studies completed, and has a lower first quartile production cost.

They have completed the most difficult element of their construction cost fund raising by securing their $150m debt facility, so it comes down to equity, which may or may not, but highly likely will be dependant on the ongoing market price. However, right now it is purely about how much dilution there will be not can they raise the necessary funds to build the plant and will the plant make the money it says it will.

The current pre tax NPV $1.25 billion the current $50m valuation still looks cheap against that figure, when investors know that the price rises they are driving are more than likely helping ensure that the equity raise dilution is further reduced.

With the knowledge that the feasability study for Zinnwald is strongly indicated to demonstrate further solid value also, there is a strong argument that this rise isn't speculative but more a strong percentage play for the likely outcome that it is helping deliver.

If the debt finance wasn't sorted then I would be more in the speculative camp although that lower first quartile cost is still key here. However, it is sorted and now we are talking equity and a higher share price goes a long way to reducing that fear, so the more that gets bought the better the outcome.

My opinion only.

Another note worthy fact from SDX is that the centeal processing facility and 10km long pipeline in Egypt is costing SDX $18.5m for their 55% share. Assuming capex is proportionately shared out then the total facility would be around $34m. That's a ball park figure but gives a good idea of the cost and it is certainly no deal breaker.

There are of course the costs to add to the subsea flowline and drill costs to consider but then Chariot has 75% working interest with which to play with also.

Lastly, SDX has made some very good discoveries in Morroco and their success rate with the drill is very good indeed. However, their ;

"Total (NET) Proved Plus Probable Plus Possible Reserves" across their entire portfolio, so Egypt and Morroco combined, comes in at 'just' 33BCF of which the high return Morrocan assets contribute around 6BCF.

I say just because right now Chariot has a proven gas discovery (2C resources) that delivers NET (75% working interest) of 230BCF with major upside potential to come.

That's near 700% more than what SDX has taken minimum 4 years to achieve and they achieved it with one simple concession award from the Morrocan government and a maximum $1m initial cash outlay.

Good morning.

The market clearly hasn't taken the time to fully appreciate what the Lixus concession and discovery truly means for Chariot Oil.

I have seen several references here to SDX, a company I have also invested in and that currently operates in Egypt and Morroco.

SDX is currently building a central processing facility in Egypt (not Morroco) with a gross plateau production rate of between 50-60 MMscf/d, with the conventional natural gas being sold to the state at a price of US$2.85/Mcf.

SDX has a 55% working interest and is operator in this concession. Whilst the project is delayed there is much excitement for what this project will do to transform SDX's fortunes by adding what will be circa 5,500 bopd net equivalent production to the business. However, it is in Egypt, a jurisdiction where the 75% ownership enjoyed in Morroco simply isn't available. Nor is there a 10 year corporation tax holiday on production and the realised price is 'just' $2.85/Mcf.

In Morroco, SDX operations enjoyed an average realised price of $10.33/Mcf in 2018 with netbacks estimated by Edison at the start of that year at between $8.5-9.0/Mcf range for realised prices of $10/Mcf.

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/morocco-a-simple-low-cost-operation-with-growth/20289/

SDX are no doubt delighted with their project in Egypt but be under no doubt, it would be a far stronger project if it was based in Morroco and creating far more excitement.

With Lixus, Chariot have just that and then potentially a lot more. Yes risks remain and the Morrocan market has to be fully analysed to establish how much gas it can handle and at what sort of pricing but at netbacks pushing $9/Mcf there is plenty of headroom considering that the potential netback is some 315% more than the full prices SDX will be achieving from their processing facility in Egypt.

That would be enticing enough if we were simply just comparing a like for like outcome. However, Chariot's outline plan points towards a 70Mmcf/d phase 1 development.

If they only achieved the 70Mmcf/d outcome then i am in, i am present, i am invested, because of those potential netbacks.

However, that phase 1 development plan has room to expand to 90Mmcf/d if the deeper Gas Sand C comes in, which carries risk but nothing too testing. A great percentage play given that the 70Mcf/d is enough.

But if that weren't enough then we have phase 2, which can deliver another 90Mmcf/d if the satellites around Anchois come in, and has the added bonus of a low risk Anchois N potentially contributing 238BCF of the anticipated 674BCF needed for this phase (so 35% of the total) and currently holding a 51% chance of success.

However, the investment case doesn't require 90Mcf/d from phase 1, nor phase 2, nor Anchois N, nor the 5 eastern prospects, or even the reported "giant scale prospective resources in the sub-Nappe" that are being reported. All of that is free carried and a bonus.

I very much like.

The followng link shows that Sinohydro are already operating an EPC in Madagascar for a $270m Hydropower project that was financed by Chinese concessional bank loans.

So they are more than happy to work there and its not so great a leap to think that the same pattern may just occur for Lemur.

http://eng.sinohydro.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=42&id=404

What i do find rather puzzling about the Lemur project as a whole is that we (the market) have been given so little detail about its financial prospects.

In being understanding, I had thought that it was perhaps because the BFS was being reviewed, but today's statement says this ;

"Review and sign-off of the power bankable feasibility study (“BFS�) has been completed by Sinohydro."

Yes the mine BFS is under its final review, which is arguably connected, but I am still left asking the question as to why we haven't been told any of the financial data.

Could it be that Sinohydro as authors of the studies are owners of them both or that the agreement with them contains an agreement not to publish the findings until financial close. I ponder these thoughts because BMN make no reference as to when the market may see them, which is strange.

The market cannot value something it cannot analyse.

The original MOU laid out in the 5th April 2017 RNS states that ;

"Potential establishment of a future company for the Project upon completion of the BFS, in which Sinohydro's parent company, PowerChina, may take an equity interest"

The footbote describes Sinohydro as follows ;

"Sinohydro focuses on engineering, procurement and construction of transmission infrastructure and power plants"

So Sinohydro is in this to build the plant, so the EPC is surely heading their way because they didn't conduct the BFS for nothing. If the project is achieving the expected outcomes, which it certainly appears to be doing so, then why wouldn't PowerChina not still be there in the background. PowerChina is huge and as we can see through the GCM RNS of 17th jan 2019, the have form for investing in projects.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=GCM&ArticleCode=hedr46t4&ArticleHeadline=Further_agreements_with_POWERCHINA

Only some thoughts for contributors here to perhaps chew over but i reamin puzzled as to why the financial data has not been released yet, and my current line of thought is that PowerChina will take a majority share in the project in order to secure the build and operation of the plant, and that is perhaps why we are not seeing the data because until that deal is done the Chinese do not want us to.

I would just like to add that the Lemur project is now more than capable of standing on its own two feet. It is also in a far stronger position than the tins assets were when they were floated.

Right now Lemur continues to contribute very little in terms of valuation for BMN. At the current rate of knots that will surely have to change.

The right thing to do is sell it or float it because it doesn't truly belong in the modern day BMN camp, but there is no sign of that as yet and the business case and grounds for 'value' grow stronger by the update.

Let's us also not forget that BMN took over Lemur for its £5.7m in realised cahs that prevented dilution here for well over a year. This coal project was therefore effectively free along with anything else that is made of it now and in the future.

Another big feather in the BMN management how to do business the right way cap.

@Sanchez599 Yes I agree wholeheartedly with your statements.

A long time ago, well before BMN realised the Vametco acquisition, I produced a number of posts comparing Lemur to the Kibo Mbeya coal to power plant project in Tanzania. At the time it invited a good deal of flack from some Kibo investors because it was felt that their project was far more advanced (Lemur had only recently been taken over and had spent a good many years getting nowhere with JIRAMA or indeed the dispute with an at the time unknown claimant over their mining permit).

However, when I look at the difficulties that can be experienced attempting to develop a project of this kind in the lowr income sub-saharan region, when i see what can go wrong and how delays can engulf a project, then i am all the more impressed by the quiet but determined way that a BMN led Lemur has and is achieving in Madagascar.

The project is running so smoothly that investors here have come to take it all for granted, distracted by the 'real' prize, driven by their real reasons for being here, and that is fair enough. However, nobody should be under any illusion as to the success that is being witnessed here.

I have no true idea how much Lemur will be worth to shareholders here in the end but what I do know is that securing a $1m loan such as they have done ;

"Provides "at-risk" funding for Lemur so it can develop its Imaloto Project, complete feasibility and reach financial close"

What that says is that Lemur will effectively place no more constraints on the BMN coffers. It is now flying free.
Again, I repeat that the valuation is tricky but if Lemur is indeed kept within the ranks for the next 6 months or so, then it is going to secure its EPC and it is going to secure its funding and be ready to build. The we are talking about starting to eat into that $200m NPV that FM has previously talked about.

As for the funding, the company is also adding ;

"Participating in a PPF with a lender accelerates the due-diligence and approval process for the eventual project finance."

So funding is further down the line and the project has been assessed to a level that is far deeper than perhaps first thought. That says a lot about the success expected in reaching financial close.

I will be the first to say that I am no fan of coal projects and would not actively seek out an investment of this type. However, the people of Southern Madagascar have as much right to electricity and power as i do, and right now this is their best option for obtaining it. Climate change for me is not about eliminating all coal but eliminating it in those countries that simply do no need it anymore. That have the resources to move in another direction.

So I am supportive of the Lemur project, be it that i potentially gain from it as well and perhaps it is now time to start recognising that it is very real, it is progressing very well, and could add a great deal of value here if handled correctly.

@topsharepicks whilst nobody outside the company can say for certain that "big farm in" news could not come at any time, the likelihood in Brazil, which i have seen mentioned on this BB several times of late, is that this will not happen until the AP-1 block has been drilled by Shell and its partners.

Slide 20 of the latest Chariot presentation is clear ;

"Partnering process initiated for a partner to join in drilling to follow a play opening commitment well to be drilled by a third-party in the neighbouring deepwater block"

Now whilst there may be a partner out there willing to commit prior to this, it really doesn't make commercial sense to do so when they can wait until Shell have drilled and establish a better idea of the chances of success. The same is being played out by Chariot themselves with the MOH-B and KEN-A 'potential' drills.

That Shell drill is not currently planned for 2019.

You have every right to believe and argue whatever case you may wish but personally I believe the Brazil angle to be premature and an unnecessary distraction from the Lixus announcement. I didn't buy in for Brazil but i did buy in for the potential revenues and developments that a successful Lixus will open up. However, I am much more excited about the further Lixus drills and potentially what it could do for opening up the MOH-B play.

As an example, the very last slide of the April presentation from Chariot states that Anchois N has the potential to add a further 238 BCF in 2C resources with a 51% chance of recovery. Now that is an internal estimate and Anchois N is till to have a CPR carried out on it but that is included in the works due over the next 2-3 months, and given it has by far the greatest chance of success assigned to it, could well be a very interesting development over the next 2-3 months.

To drive that point home, I refer you to slide 8, which is the outline development plan that has been put together to date. Phase 2 currently only considers the 3 satellites that have a CPR on them, and yet it is capapble of delivering a further 90 mmscf/d. However, the slide clearly states ;

"Anchois N yet to be audited and may materially impact on a Phase II development"

So the satellite with the current highest assumed chance of success and circa 238 BCF in potential gas pay, isn't even part of what is a potential 180mmscf/d field development plan. Such a development reduces the need to succeed on the satellites and reduces the risk of the overall play.

It is these potential game changing positives that will potentially come out in the studies that are due in the next 2-3 months. They have the potential to deliver a very large field plan that will be selling into Chariot's highest margin market by far and will enjoy a 10 year corporation tax holiday on production, something Brazil doesn't get near.

That is why i am here for Lixus and not those 'big farms ins' which are a red herring and a distraction.

I believe given that AMER is trading at just 14p a share, the use of the word bland is a tad tough.

Investors are perhaps forgetting that Platanillo oil wasn't sold in December 2018. According to the 22nd Jan update Q4 production was 4,600 bopd. Indico-1 didn't come in until 10th Dec so will have had a limited affect on that number (perhaps 400 bopd).

Therefore, with Mariposa-1 at 945 bopd and steady throughout the period, we are talking circa 3,250 bopd for circa 31 days.

That equates to 100k of oil, which at $43 netbacks, equates to around $4.3m that is removed from those 2018 figures. That is over simplifying things somewhat because December slaes would have seen far lower netbacks achieved due to the fall in oil prices, but then the oil was hedl back for better pricing. When we don't currently know but at full year production of 1.95m barrels of oil, we are talking 5% of total production being held back, which should be taken into account when reviewing the overall performance.

I have taken a position in here having previously bought SDX, so my understanding of the Morrocan gas market is good and their pricing structure makes the Lixus block a very attractive asset.

75% ownership of 70mmboe of 2P resources for just $1m commitment is significant.

I do however believe that the talk of the Brazil farm in is far too early because the company and highly likely any potential partner, is waiting for the results of the Shell drill on the neighbouring block AP-1, which as far as I can find is currently not scheduled for 2019.

Mohammedia (MOH-B) looks far more likely to be the front end 'giant' scale drill that finds a partner and a path to being drilled, but it is not the key reason i have decided to buy in.

This is all about Lixus, which is a deal that has and continues to take the market by surprise. From what I can see the next 2-3 months actions are designed to set up Anchois as a commercial find through a series of studies that will turn those 2C resources into proven commercial ones and attract a quality partner for what is an appraisal well.

Hence the drive to establish the development plan and the Morrocan gas market. There is risk and I am wary of the managment's performance to date. However, the asset is that good that on a risk reward basis that I find it compelling enough to take a position.

What's more the discovered resources sit within gas Sand A and B and are to date capable of supplying 70mmscf/d for over 10 years. That is without the as yet not drilled Gas Sand C, or indeed the other 9 prospects that are noted on the block. So everything else could fail and they could still bring home a 70mmscf/d discovery.

If as suspected the development plan and gas market studies deliver the sort of returns I expect, then that will be the key catalyst here front end and not Brazil or even MOH-B. They are pure bonuses later down the line, Lixus is more than enough for now.

So I am a buyer.

2019 Drilling Programme (cont'd)

"In the Putumayo, drilling of the first of up to three wells on the Coendu structure (Put-9 and Put-12) and spudding of Miraparriba-1 on Put-8 are both expected in the second half of the year. This includes our fully carried work programme with Oxy."

So as suspected Put 8 is being put back whilst the company awaits the approval from ANH for the Vetra buyout. That makes sense because an exiting business that has operatorship, cannot/will not drive a drill on this block now.

As I posted yesterday, I believe Put 8 is planned as the next Platanillo and so may just be maintained at 100% ownership, which makes it arguably more exciting than CP0-5 when employing the OBA, whose transport costs we are told have reduced from $3.90 per barrel to $3.50. So big money to be made, even if they then need to truck the oil to the OBA, as they do from the northern parts of Platanillo.

For me this is an acceptable and understandable delay to the drill.

On Put 9 and 12, we are now told that these will commence in Q4, which is a disappointment but in the grand scheme of things not key for 2019.

What i really liked reading was the update on the transportation of 3rd party oil.

"As at the end of Q1 2019, we are in the final stages of obtaining certification as an oil transport company and expect third party transport to begin in the coming months."

So it is looking very much on for a Q2 start. The beauty of transporting 3rd party oil is that there are no costs other than tax to consider. No transport charges, no capex, no royalties. It is easy m oney that should go straight onto the bottom line.

It will be very interesting to see what sort of rate the company can achieve for such a deal.

So the autobots (with a little help from your truly) just took out the entire 1.5m plus backlog of shares at 13.90.

Interesting.