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On friday i posted some rough figures associated with the costs of developing a 4 well field at Anchois and flowline to landfall. The $360m estimation (including contingences) did not include for any possible gas processing plants costs.

CHAR are clear that the current outlinbe plan includes "Central processing facility at landfall to ensure export quality gas" (See slide 8 below).

http://www.chariotoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Corporate-Presentation-Apr2019-2.pdf

If we review slide 9 we can see that there is a "planned gas plant" right at the point that the gas makes landfall. I struggle to believe that this is pure coincidence so I would expect that it is the proposed processing plant that CHAR mention.

On the right hand side of the map we can also see that Tendara is marked up with a 120km proposed pipeline to the Maghreb-Europe pipeline system that runs from Algeria through to Spain and supplies Europe with gas. Tendara is of course the flagship gas field of Sound Energy. They being one of the companies employed in the comparison on slide 6 of the above prsesentation and holding circa 170BCF in 2C resources.

The following enclosed link describes the deal that Sound Energy concluded for the 60MMscf/d gas processing plant and the 120km pipeline from Tendara.

https://www.worldconstructionnetwork.com/news/sound-energy-awards-feed-contract-for-gas-production-facility-in-morocco/

What Sound Energy have done is agreed a deal with a consortium to finance and build the $184m gas plant and pipeline. Sound Energy pay nothing towards the build costs. Instead the facility will be run by the consortium for 15 years and Sound Energy will pay a fee, which will never be allowed to be more than $45m per annum (likely a lot less). At the end of the 15 years the plant is turned over to Sound Energy.

It will of course cost them more in the long run but they save on front end costs when they are likely to hurt the most. This is a strong endorsement of the demand and interest associated with Morrocan generated gas.

What it also demonstrates is that a gas plant and 120km pipeline costing $184m in capex is viable when producing 60MMscf/d to feed the Maghreb-Europe pipeline.

Now the CHAR feasability study involves greater costs at sea (my estimate $360m) but designates a 90MMscf/d gas processing plant at landfall. There is an argument for increased costs for a plant that would be producing 1.5 times what Sound Energy are building because one successful appraisal well at Anchois on Gas Sand C will deliver that.

However, it is also very clear from the CHAR presentation slide 9, that any gas pipeline that then went on to connect to the Maghreb would be a whole lot shorter. By my estimates we are talking 30km at most.

In my view what this demonstrates is the appetite for CHAR gas, the further viability of the project and the sort of options potential partners may just bring to the table.

I see that CORO shares are up 20% today, valuing the company at £20m. A thus far £3m reward for closing out the deal for a 15% stake in the Mako field, which is costing $2.85m in cash and $1.85m in pending dilution.

Thus far CHAR has risen 21.95% today, which places the total value of the company around £2.75m above cash, which is essentially the value attributed to date to the Lixus license, that has no cash outlay or dilution attached, and is a lot bigger and carries 75% ownership and operatorship, rather than 15%.

I am in no way criticising CORO at all. I am merely pointing out that CHAR has a long way to go before it even recognises the 'acquisition.'

Just as a note of interest the Sol-1 and Aguila estmiated drill times are included in the Indico tender.

Page 71 states ;

"The first well to be drilled is Indico-1 for which tentative date of spudding is June 2018. Tentative days for
drilling and testing / completion of Indico-1 are 39 & 43 and for rest two wells Sol and Aguila are 32 & 24
days each.

So they shoul be a fair bit quicker to drill although Mr Piper does not mention Aguila. He states "our next well is going to be Sol... and then we hope to get back to Indico in the 2nd half of this year"

A successful spud by the end of April would see Sol-1 completed by late June bringing the possibility of a start at Indico-2 by late July.

That should leave room for at least 1 more drill on CP0-5 with this rig in 2019, which I would think would be the second appraisal well.

http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Tenderdoc-Drilling-Rig-Indico-sol.pdf

@Wolster I do worry that some investors who contribute here are so angered by past performance that they are skewing the facts to feed that.

I agree with you on item No.1, it was poorly timed and porrly thought through in my opinion but it was the exact same timing as last year, and the BOD would argue that the successes at CP0-5 and the accetive deal making on the other assets, demonstrated by the OXY deal, warrant their rewards. Personally, I would have preferred a more testing reward system than thta which we have seen. So yes black mark there.

On the other 2 items I simply cannot agree with your conclusions. AMER is not operator so the theory does not wash. In addition, I have demonstrated already quite clearly that there is documented evidence that ONGC is planning a much larger drilling programme at CP0-5 but has to make land aquisitions to achieve it. That document takes precedent over any other theories, particularly when they are driven by emotion.

Having listened to the interview once more, it is clear that Indico appraisals will be re-visited later in the year. If Sol-1 is a success then iot may just be that they plan to stay down there, which will increase the drills at CP0-5. After all ANMER have stated in their full year report that the drill plans remain fluid depending on the successes with the drill bit, as Calao-1 has proven.

Right now they are looking at the high end of 5,000 to 6,000 bopd for 2019. A good result at Sol-1 and Indico-2 appraisal could see them hit 7,500 bopd this year, without doing anything else. That would be solid progress.

However, Mr Piper is clear that the other Columbian assets are still on for later this year. Trust is questionable on that because the plan has already changed a couple of times. Put 8 has a very solid reasoning for being delayed. That being the increase in ownership and the need to gain regulatory approval.

If nothing else happens on Put 9 and 12 this year, I would be fine with that if Put 8 drilling does start and comes in. At 100% ownership it has the ability to deliver strong cashflows, which will equal the bigger finds at CP0-5.

So whilst i have soem concerns, there is still a lot to play for with AMER and a little (more) patience should see a very good result here. I know you don't want to hear it but it is in my opinion true.

Apologies my last paragraph there was not designed to ignore the failings of the company. JW stated that he was going to talk to ONGC about increasing the rig count. ONGC are demonstrating that they are clearly planning to do so.

The 22nd Jan RNS stated the following ;

"In addition, the partners are evaluating a further increase in drilling activity for 2019, targeting an accelerated appraisal/development of the Indico field, the NE structures and other prospects associated with Indico down-dip and Mariposa offsets. This may involve the contracting of a third drilling rig."

The ONGC tender for the land acquisition demonstrates that ONGC wish/need to acquire the land associated with this above accelrated plan. So it is down to how long that process takes.

Therefore, i remain of the view that it is a little harsh to attack JW for a perceived failing, when their is clear evidence that progress has been made.

If I was going to criticise the BOD for anything at all it would be their failure to communicate changes to the drill programme clearly and the fact we have to learn of the decision on Sol-1 via a video interview with the head of PR, which in itself is rather ironic don't you think.

Tender once again for those that haven't seen it. Page 58 is where I extracted the quotes from.

http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Tenderdoc-LAQ.pdf

@Bigsmoke I am not going to sit here and tell you that all is rosy in the AMER kitchen but at the very same time I am not going to allow myself to fall too far down the rabbit hole of discontent.

The ONGC tender for land acquisition is where I focus and it is very clear as to the intentions of ONGC Videsh, when it says the following ;

"Development and exploration of CPO-5 block is presently at full swing with recent success of commercial hydrocarbon in Mariposa-1 and Indico-1X well. Building up the surface facilities for commercial production from these wells need construction of roads, production facilities and drilling location areas for exploratory as well as development wells. Presently 10 exploratory locations have been proposed/released in different areas of CPO-5 block in addition to land required for oil production facilities, of discovered wells."

"According to approved work program of CPO-5 block in 2019 two exploratory locations were firmed up for drilling. But with the major discovery in Indico-1X well, brings up new scenarios for drilling of at least 4 wells in 2019 in NW part of the block. The joint development of Mariposa-1 and Indico-1X and possible lay out of oil pipeline increases the LAQ work by multiple times."

"In SE part of CPO-5 block, 4 exploratory locations are lined up for early drilling within extended phase II
period of the block."

The bids are only just being reviewed and I would think this work would not start before June 2019. It iks clear that the land acquisition is required to allow further exploration to take place, as well as the build up of production facilities. That is why i mentioned earlier that a possible reason for moving on to Sol-1 is that they are not ready to take on another 5,000 bopd of production from Indico-2.

Whatever the case may be, they are demonstrating that right now they have authority to drill Sol-1 and Aguila as part of the "approved work programme" for 2019. However, they wish to make all preparations for a possible start on at least 4 wells in 2019.

However, the key for me is the "Presently 10 exploratory locations have been proposed/released in different areas of CPO-5 block in addition to land required for oil production facilities, of discovered wells." and the "SE part of CPO-5 block, 4 exploratory locations are lined up for early drilling within extended phase II period of the block."

That all points to an expanded drill programme that could start in late 2019 but most likely will be implemented and costed for 2020.

We can argue the toss over what was promised and when but the key point is that ONGC are showing clear signs of preparing for a much larger drilling programme and that is for me well worth the wait.

@Bigsmoke I appreciate what you are saying and AME have been very positive on that front. I think it is a little unfair to focus in on that point too much because the BOD has long been criticised for not being positive enough, so something has to give.

Furthermore, AMER stated that they felt the play warranted a 2nd and even 3rd rig and that they would be discussing thei with their partner ONGC. I don't believe it was promised anywhere but am happy to be educated if I have missed something.

In addition, as I have said earlier, it is clear from the ONGC tenders that they are planning land acquisitions that allow them to increase production, export more oil, and bild more platforms. So the intent is clear that more rigs are coming it is just about when.

Lastly, JW talked about the additional rigs prior to the Calao-1 result, which has clearly undermined the Pavo-Real data, and perhaps limited the scope for additional rigs in the near term. Clearly there was more expectation given the size of the oil find at Indico 1 and with merit. This may well be a case of redefining that data to establish exactly where the oil has migrated to, which means caution ahead of furthe rig commitments.

I feel strongly that 2020 will see much greater activity at CP0-5 and it will be worth the wait. In the meantime, the SP has supportive events and achievements to warrant a higher outcome for this year, so I am happy to sit and wait and review towaqrds the end of 2020, because I believe the rewards will be worth it, despite the perceived over-promising that you have highlighted.

@Wolster I would look at it another way. We know ONGC are tendering for contracts associated with land acquisitions for additional surface level facilities, pipelines and drill locations. It may be that they are buying time to achieve this prior to delivering an appraisal well programme of 2 wells that will highly likely add significantly to the 5,000 bopd coming out of Indico at the moment. Not certain but a valid argument.

However, it really does look like ONGC want to establish the size of the play, which must be a set up for the larger expansive drill programme that the land acquistion tender states is the case.

Lastly, the drill rig at Indico was tendered on a 3 drill programme, which was Indico, Sol and Aguila. So it is only doing what it planned to do from day one, be it a large rig or not.

@JP2000 et al.

Having listened to the interview I foudn myself feeling a mixture of positive and negative feelings. On the negative side the company looks to be jumping around a lot and that is undermining the message they are attempting to convey. Having just released their full year results i was disappointed to find that they had communicated that Sol-1 was next in the anaylsts call.

On the positive side of things the OBA pipeline is underestimated and is looking like being a more permanent fixture once the approval to transport oil is given. Mr Piper strongly indicates that as long suspected, the RODA pipeline is the wek link in this, and further investment will be commited once deemed valid. I would think that local operators would be keen to employ the pipeline, just like any other cost saving transport and at the referenced $10 difference, I would think my previously communicated $5 a barrel is very much on.

At 4,000 bopd and $5 a barrel we are talking over $7m a year in revenues with very littel to pay other than tax, and very little risk or need for AMER to maintain production.

On the anticipated production, it is important to understand that 5,000 - 6,000 bopd for this year is significant because Q1 is already in at 4,600 bopd. That means the remaining 3 quarters will need to deliver 6,000 bopd in order to hit the middle point of that guidance. This means that the strongest production is starting when oil prices are at their highest.

He also says that this figure does not involve any further production and there is an additional well about to spud on Platanillo. So more production to come.

The 5-6 well achieved programme for 2019 is now looking around about what we can expect.

Platanillo = 1
CP0-5 = 3-4
Put 8 = 1 (approvals aside)
Put 9 and 12 = 1-2 (Potential issues with the local indigenous people)

It looks very much like ONGC want to spend this year investigating the extent of the play so that a more involved programme ca be signed off for nmext year, and that makes sense to a producer who is knocking out 235k bopd. A little frustrating for AMER shareholders but it allows Indico to run at full tilt and the coffers to be built up for what will be a very busy 2020.

I am sticking with my plan of assessinng this post 2020. I see a great deal of value in CP0-5 but am equally excited by Put 8 now that it is 100% owned and Bienparado is right next door to the OBA pipeline inlet. Put 9 and 12 will have me getting more excited when the civils are confirmed but with OXY in play the local issues have the very best chance of being concluded in the right way.

That said, there is still the chance that an extra rig is brought in for Indico if Sol and Aguila turn out to be finds and good ones at that.

When Put 9 and 12 do get going, then OXY at $50 billion turnover do not look like the sort of company that is going to want to rest on their laurels, so the 500-600m prospective resources there could be a game change

@Daisan I agree and that is why I strongly believe that BMN is a long temr investment that should not be allowed to be shaken by what are right now short term pricing events. So long as the cash flows are robust and the plans on track, then there is nothing standing in the way of this compamny achieving its medium term plans and reaching that 10,000 mtv goal.

By being active and involved in the development of VRFB projects, and moving to supply electrolyte, BMN will be an enabler of the very industry that will drive their 10,000 mtv of demand.

If FeV prices do remain low then BMN through its electrolyte facility can supply up to 400MWh of electrolyte at lower cost effective prices, to those companies that need it in order to expand their busineeses and compete with lithium-ion based competitors. Whilst doing so they can enjoy greater profits through the electrolyte and scale up production asd their efforts bear fruit and those customers come looking for more electrolyte.

That is a very simple explanation but sometimes business is that simple. With those direct links to the VRFB industry i can see a very plausible path to 10,000 mtv, even without too much effort with their own VRFB development and avenues into Eskom.

So for me the 10,000 mtv will happen because BMN have set themselves up to drive their own demand, with or without the steel market.

If the demand is there, the ability to scale up through lower cost brownfield is there, and the funds are there to achieve it, then it is simply about time and being patient, and ignoring the short term noise and following and allowing the story to unfold.

@MrJinx I believe it is well worht taking heart that the previous dilutive cash raises are now acting as a supportive fundamental for the future development work at Lixus.

The fact that it was placed at 13p means there should be very little concern that any remaining recipients would be looking to bail and thus suppress the share price. We are a log way away from that and have likely a good few strong updates to come that will help avoid it. That is because Lixus is good enough to allow it.

If the company had had to raise like CORO did in oprder to fund the purchase of the license, then there woluld be an overhang that would take time to clear and affect the ability of news flow to influence the SP. That isn't the case, so CHAR are in a much stronger position and news flow should be high impact, if th BOD can start to demonstrate that they can really take advantage of the gifthorse they have been presented by ONHYM.

@Headancer,

If we employ the current SP Angel Q4 updated figures then they have 10,000 mtv production producing EBITDA at $228m at a long term accepted FeV price of $45 per kg, from 2023 onwards.

I would challenge that and reduce the production to 90% of nameplate capacity. Thus we should be talking EBITDA of +$200m and highly likely 74% ownership (although 70% may be the reality with the new BEE rules).

That would equate to $148m in EBITDA for BMN with their own post tax profits coming in at $115.6m, so circa £89m at current dollar rates of exchange.

That's at a revised long term $45 per kg, which to me looks very doable.

To that must be added all the other value chain accretive profits that a robust VRFB developer backed by 10,000 mtv of arguably the lowest cost vanadium feed material in the world, will deliver.

Please remember that the Vanadium101 webinar was very clear, that a vametco producing at 5,000 mtv is the lowest cost producer of vanadium in the world. So a combined 10,000 mtv should blow the doors off that particular house.

There is a good argument to be had that the $45 per kg is too low and that their $18.80 operating cost is too high, given we would see a doubling of the production capacity. Their model also cannot possibly appreciate what nar surface Brits ore can achieve or indeed include the idea that the processing will all be housed at 1-2 sites, immediately next door to each other.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Q4-Operating-results-report-US107m-EBITDA.pdf

Here is the original article from June 2018 for those that haven't seen it.

"With falling output of vanadium in China, the world’s largest producer, there was interest from buyers in the country to fund the Mokopane project, Mojapelo said. But the focus remained on Vametco where for $100m, just one third the cost of building a new Mokopane project, output could be doubled to 10,000 tonnes a year, a decision the board had yet to make, he said."

I have to say having now read it again, should we really be considering any other option?

A decision the BOD has yet to make and yet they know how much it will cost, so they have clearly run the numbers in some detail.

This does very much tie in with the discussions about timing and the connected events. The transformation programme will be a major factor becasue they need to have confidence that they can get the plant operating at 3,400 mtv. The Vametco but more importantly the Brits resource updates, will also play their part but that will also tie in with the Brits mining right and the ownership and contractual relationships with the Brits project farm owners.

There is very little business sense in committing to a $100m investment when you don't have clear sight of when you are aloud to mine the ground it will either sit on or indeed be fed from.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/mining/2018-06-07-bushveld-minerals-to-diversify-with-battery-production-powering-ahead/

The second attachment below is the interview with Chika Edeh.

The key quote is as follows ;

"To get to 10,000 metric tonnes a year, the company is looking at either building a new USD100 million kiln at Vametco or buying brownfield sites nearby, or even both."

That leaves both doors ajar but if $100m delivers the prize without the need for brownfield acquisitions then why bother with them at all?

One line of thought i have had previously is that a new kiln needs to be fed and as i shared here previously, Highveld Steeel still has a mill available that can process ore and create a concentrate. So perhaps that is the reason for the brownfield, which would make the $100m investment a given as has likely been the case all along.

https://alliancenews.com/in-depth-bushveld-minerals-planning-dividends-alongside-jse-float/

@MrJinx I would firstly like to convey that i do not post on these BBs in order to drive or push conflict. I conduct my dealings here as I would any business relationship, showing at all times respect for the levels of investment that individuals place on the line.

If my wording has antagonised you then I apologise and would seek to nip that in the bud early on.

Perhaps the way i worded that piece came across in the way that you said it did and I will take that on board for the future.

My key point was that comparing the actions of a company trying to progress large scale wildcats plays is perhaps a tad bit unfair when the current play has a circa 70MMBO discovery and access to a very hungry and substantially economical market.

I am not ignoring past management performance and I have very much taken on board the commentary of LTHs here, but i do so having reviewed the deals that were made against the assets and the risk they entailed.

The Lixus license is a very very good discovery and the fact that it comes for free, so no cash outlay, and they have a starting position of 75% equity, means that even if they drive an average deal, shareholders from these levels should see several times the current valuation.

If they can go on to unlock even half of the prospective 1.8Tcf on the block, then even at a low equity interest, this company will be worth substantially more than it is already. That prospect outweighs previous management performance by some way and the sheer fatc that they landed this license should at the very least allow them some breathing space to expand upon it, prior to criticising them or continuing to beat them up for what they did before.

That is my view anyway.

Hello Brasi and thank you for engaging.

The same presentation also states ;

"Brownfield infrastructure create scope for low capex and quick scale-up of production capacity"

The argument could be made for both, be it new acquisitions off site or additional capacity at Vametco. I remain stuck on the fact that a reporter specifically wrote about a $100m investment at Vametco after talking to FM and, Mrs Edeh discussed both options during an interview in late November 2018.

If it is indeed cost effective to build then the cheapest opex has got to that which allows Brits ore to be processed on site or at the neighbouring plant just 800m away. As I have argued with the Brits mine development previously, all of the infrastructure, labour, plant etc is right there and in use. There is no need to re-write the script just add to it and scale it up.

I can very easily imagine a vanadium mining and processing hub based at an increased geographical home that consists of the Vametco and Brits farms. I have many times said I could see a new processor being built on Brits and I see no reason to alter that course.

That would in a roundabout way answer all of those brownfield processing statements without having to ever buy another existing plant and/or renovate it.

Lastly, with the issues experienced with the existing brownfield plant at Vametco this year, it may just be the final excuse needed to push for a new additional kiln at that site.

We shall see, but lets be clear, what we are discussing here is the how and not the maybe of it all. 10,000 mtv is coming one day and when it does, investors won't be crying over $50 per kg but dreaming of it instead.

Thank you jupiternmars

The CFO Julian Maurice-Williams has basically said what i have been harping on about these past few days. CHAR would not nomally have such a large equity stake on a license that is this far advanced, which give them "a lot of room to play with when we come to partnering."

The further CPR shortly, "which should line up with prospective resources of 1.8Tcf across the whole block"

Lixus has a whole "series of triggers"

I could go on but it really should all speak for itself.

Also, in my opinion there is little value in proclaiming what the CHAR cash balance will be at Christmas 2019 because the actions planned over the next few months are the true catalyst here.

By Christmas 2019 the Lixus license will be much further advanced and with it highly likely the SP.

There is no drill commitment currently planned for 2019 and the company has clearly stated that it will be partner driven. I have found enough documented evidence to demonstrate that the Lixus discovery is viable and highly profitable at current Morrocan gas prices.

Morroco still imports the vast majority of its gas and is driving these sorts of developments to help alleviate that. So there is going to be great interest in a new phase 1 90MMscf/d gas supply. So the demand will be there.

Therefore, it is going to find interest and likely quite a lot of it.

Everything therefore points to a partner being found and the drill happening at reduced costs to CHAR. Therefore, if they do raise it will be for a material reason (likely the appraisal drill but as I demonstrated on Friday, this cost should be around $15m and so is well within the cash levels of CHAR, if they farm out a percentage of the sdrill, which they have said they will).

Said drill will highly likely also come at a much higher SP, because it will be post CPRs, post feasability study, post market study, and post partner sign up. All of which have the ability to drive the SP and all of which to date, are likely to prove positive and support the de-risking of this project and! the current SP is still only at cash levels.

Trust issues and pereceived previous poor management performance aside, Lixus is a lot bigger than simply re-rating the SP to current cash levels, end of. So its a strong buy for me based on my research.

But always always DYOR

@MrJinx It is interesting that out of all of that information you decided to focus in on my example of a means to realise the development. It was the least factually based part of the entire post.

The reality is this is all about fair value and the potential for realising a development at Lixus.

How on earth do investors in a company that to now has gone after 'giant' oil plays, expect said small company to achieve this by retaining the majority of the ownership, and to do it without substantial dilution.

The best way they can do this is to find a partner who is willing to drive the project and the majority of the costs involved.

To do that with a wildcat requires a great deal more of the potential prize, and that is all it is when nothing has been drilled yet, to be given up to make it worth the partner's while.

With Lixus CHAR have effectively been given 75% an oil discovery that is better than the one that CORO have bought 15% of for nearly $5m in shares and cash, which means they have a far better bargaining position.

The work currently being conducted on the CPRs, the feasability study, and the Morrocan gas market, will futher de-risk the play and enhance the bargaining position that the company holds.

I have clearly demonstrated in my posts from Friday and yesterday that there is a great deal of profitability to be had from this discovery, which should improved greatly as the above plans etc are released.

Whether that means that CHAR agree a free carry, or that they retain a greater percentage of the development wasn't the key message for me. What the CORO figures clearly show is that even with a limited retained interest, CHAR has an asset that demands an NPV of several multiples of what we are currently seeing, and as these plans are released we should start to see some of that value in the SP.

I am very much aware of the past dilution of lack of trust that LTHs have in the management team, but this management team never had a +300BCF dikscovery off the coast of Morroco before, a market that right now would deliver substantial netbacks. It remains to be seen what they do with it but at the very least their position is far stronger and so the percentages are very much in their favour, and at 4p a share and still just current cash levels, there is not enough value in the MC for what has been achieved, what will happen in the next few months, and hoe strong an asset the Lixus license is.

(2 of 2)

Lastly, we are told that the diagnostic review commenced in Oct. The revised 2,600-2,650mtv guidance was released on 9th Nov. Therefore, the company were already fully aware of the problems they were having, and still set their guidance in that range.

What that clearly states is that the issues relating to production shortfalls start with a plant that can already produce at 700-750mtv per quarter when uninterrupted. The transformation programme is therefore designed not to boost production from 2,560 mtv, but from between 2,800-3,000 mtv. Therefore, once again the use of the 2018 2,560mtv figure is irrelevant, although i do appreciate that it is the only figure that is currently concretely available.

However, the evidence points to a plant that is trying to push on from a much higher base line.

I would encourage holders here to read this post several tiems over and checks the facts for themselves, becasue it may not be easy to take in what I am demonstrating with just one read.

Right now Vametco is demonstrating it is a 2,800-3,000mtv plant that is implementing actions to achieve 3,400mtv and operating in a pricing environment that is delivering YTD average prices of over $72 per kg.

What it is not doing is achieving $50 oer kg and 2,560mtv, which is what the market is attempting to call. Well the market is wrong.