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Good morning everyone. Further to the excellent post by Sanchez599, I would like to clearly state that from my perspective I see absolutely no issue whatsoever with the current known timings of the demonstration battery at Eskom and the BESS Project.

Here are the official words from the World Bank restructuring paper, which is the document that altered the original CSP Project into the BESS Project we know today.

Note the word 'outline' and please also remember that the project is a Eskom led project not World Bank. That said Eskom have thus far demonstrated efficiency with their own in house targets, such that the World Bank saw fit to highlight this when considering the project risks of further delays.

"The following is an outline of the procurement plan for the first set of batteries to be installed by end-2020:"

"i. Finalize technical designs: February 14, 2019 {in progress]
j. Finalize bidding documents: March 15, 2019 {in progress]
k. Receipt of bids: April 30, 2019 {not started]
l. Complete bid evaluation: June 2, 2019 {not started]
m. Contract award approvals: August 21, 2019 {not started]"

The BE battery will undergo a 90 day test and throughout this process the battery will throw off data on its performance against the various Eskom tests. However, even if we talk in very simple terms, an end of Feb start would deliver a full set of results by the end of May, which is just within the current bid evaluation period, but well within the current 'outline' contract award period.

Whilst I cannot say categorically that Eskom would wait for the results before making any final decisions, I find it hard to believe that they would make a decision on their very first +$468m BESS Project award prir to having the full data from the only VRFB ever to be tested at their facility. This is even harder to compute when one considers the VRFB in question is being delivered by a company that is offering SA $170m in investment, is beneficiating local minerals, is backed by the SA government's investment vehicle the IDC, and has been referenced by ministers and the president of SA.

My position is it is not going to be a problem. The bigger questions I have are can the electrolyte plant be ready so that it can at least contribute towards phase 1, and if so will Vametco be able to supply enough vanadium? If so can the company declare a greater local content and thus improve the strength of their tender?

Of course it may just be that it won't truly matter because political will and need may be the greatest backer that any BE tender could have, because what BMN is moving towards accomplishing is exactly what the current Ramaphosa led ANC government wants, so why would the tender not be set up to favour such efforts in the first place.

And let's not forget that the above dates are only associated with Phase 1. Phase 2 will come in 2020, by which time the BE team and all of its

Just to complete the cycle of my mini obsession today. It has been 17p to buy all day. So the 650k trade looks very much like a buy, and I can currently still buy 500k at 16.9999p, which is 0.5p lower than this morning, even though the vast majority of today's 1.85m were buys.

So like I say there is a large seller soaking up the vasy majority of buys. When they are finished, which may just coincide with news, then I expect a good push north.

@Mr.B I don't doubt it, but the same logic applies to all BBs. It is only my opinion, which is of course is open to be challenged but I have seen it before and in my opinion it is a very good sign of what is to come.

I would also add that the combination of a quiet BB and a share with such very strong (be they new) fundamentals is for me very exciting. It means it hasn't all happened yet.

There are from what i can see just 8-10 regular posters here. You don't normally see such inactivity for a company that has just found a 200ft plus net light oil column with no OWC, that can be immediately extracted and sold. It shows how far this share is flying under the radar. The odds say it won't last so enjoy it.

Incidentally, I can now purchase 100k at exactly 17p and upto 500k at 17.44p So the ask is dropping on a sea of buys. I expect a big sell to appear later to cover all these buys today.

Posted purely for interest.

@jointhedots I appreciate you coming back to me.

Yes I have noted that the BB is a little tetchy these days. I was invested twice previously, the last being when the OBA was being built, so i know to a degree how drawn out this process has been and how long investors have waited for positivity to return here. The psychological affects of being deeply involved in a share for a long period can be extreme and it can be difficult to shift out of a pattern once it sets in. That applies to a great many things in life and it often takes people with a fresh undiluted perspectives to help break us free (although in investing we must always be careful who we trust).

For me it absolutely clear how strong a position AMER now finds itself in. The two deals done are game changers in themselves but CP0-5 is a very big deal indeed. It may well be that the market is also suffering the same hangover on AMER (though buying is nice and steady here), but that will most definitely change this year.

Since I wrote that 8.48am post there have been 400k in buys and just 23.4k in sells. I know because I have constantly been setting up 100k buys and the buy price hasn't moved out of the 17.02-06 range. So the 17.18p ask is nonsense. Only the AT trades are following it

Yet the offer to buy that same 300k has gone up by just 0.05p and the 400k is exactly as i printed earlier. There may be over 1.2 billion shares in issue but that doesn't matter. The buys are being soaked up by someone or something.

@jointhedots Firstly with all due respect I am not worried in the slightest about the SP and do not need to be comforted in any way. Secondly, I did not say that the MMs are desperate for shares, so please do not insinuate that I did.

I trust you will take that in the gentle manner it is intended and trust that I enjoy the debate.

I don't normally get involved in daily SP movement discussions, it is not my focus nor my primary concern. I am a fundamentals based medium to long term investor and I am very confident about my position in AMER. However, clearly I also like to achieve the best entry point I can.

I am aware of how many shares are in issue but it is irrelevant. This is about liquidity.

My main point was merely designed to inform those investors that perhaps only follow the LSE market figures that the numbers are severely skewed, and that the vast majority of trades are buys at around 17p. I myself have bought over 500k of shares last week and I paid less for the last 100k than I did for the first. All of those trades were within a smidging of 17p and were surrounded by similar priced trades. What they in turn did is skew any AT trades, which seem to be operating in a completely different market right now price wise.

In my humble and not so inexperienced opinion, the SP is holding at this level because there is a suitcase full of shares available to sell and the seller is happy at around 17p, be they MMs, RH or whoever. It is not because the market is balanced by general wider sentiment.

It is of course by the by, because news flow here is so strong it doesn't really matter. I just like the problem solving element of these things sometimes.

What i will say is that in my opinion there is a seller and when they are done the SP will move a lot more freely with or without news flow. In the meantime, I am confident that buying at 17p is a solid decision because as I say the buys are outweighing the sells by some distance, so it is highly likely the bottom in this phase of the story and will not last forever.

@Willec I have no idea and having just checked the real bid is indeed 16.86, which again demonstrates what i have been communicating that the vast amount of trades are buys going through at the read ask and not the disfunctional version that can be seen on a daily basis here.

Plus 50k is currently available at 17.02p, which is the price I was paying for most of last week. So the bid and ask are all over the place and anything at 17.0p or there abouts is a buy, of which there are a fair few.

For the record i don't normally get involved in the daily price movements, I simply wanted to demonstrate why i thought there was a seller and thus an overhang of shares to be cleared.

Just as an example I can currently buy 300,000 at 17.14p, then 400,000 at 17.48p.

Somebody is offloading because there are plenty of shares around.

Good morning all.

Yes in the Proactive interview John Wardle says this about the latest 6 well programme ;

"We expect strong production growth and reserves growth from those wells"

It is clear that the confidence levels are very high. A CEO saying the word 'expect' rather than 'hope' is in my view significant.

It also says a lot about what they think regarding the truw level of the OWC in the Indico structure.

The market hasn't even begun to appreciate this but when the current background selling is over, and that is what it clearly is because I have been buying fairly heavily and the buy price is nearly always the same, then it a re-rate will take hold.

Clear the overhang and with Brent over $66 and rising, the SP will begin to demonstrate more appreciation soon enough. Its looking like being a very exciting year ahead for AMER, so I cannot see this BB remaining so quiet as the reality starts to kick in.

Brent now firmly over $65 a barrel and rising.

Incidentally the price of Brent on 2nd Jan, the day AMER announced the flow rates for Indico-1, was $54.

The AMER SP finished that day at 17.70p.

SP today is 17p and Brent is up $11 or circa 20%.

Enough said.

Morning everyone.

Having just watched the lates presentation by FM at the 121 Mining Investment in Cape Town (4th to 5th Feb), i would like to offer this;

FM touches upon something that I have been banging the drum about for some time here and that is what local content gives an SA manufactured VRFB.

"we expect to assemble VRFBs in SA. Not just for the SA market but for a broader African market. A VRFB that is assembled in SA with electrolyte that is manufactured in SA, will boast as much as 70-80% of local content."

Why is that important? Well in order to take advantage of the South African Development Community free trade agreement, a company has to demonstrate around 65% minimum local content. 13 of the 15 countries that are members of the SADC are signed up for this free trade agreement.

That means that South African VRFBs will have a significant cost advantage over imported batteries or batteries that cannot achieve the circa 65% local content minimum requirement, as they will be tariff free. See link below for more details.

FM also talks about a "sustained structural deficit" in the vanadium market, which is why when he brings it all together in what is a far better time managed presentation than last year, he is able to say ;

"If you take a view that vanadium is a commodity that has an exciting future, we believe that BMN is the best exposure that you could ever have to that commodity."

FM being the conservative chap that he is, has never talked like that before.

It will take time to bring it all together because as the statement about "significant progress with our (electrolyte) manufacturing plant" in 2019 shows, the fully integrated play isn't simply all happening this year. But they are well on their way and they are cashed up to deliver it, supported by the elevated pricing in the steel driven market.

However, as amedium to long term play it remains a very exciting prospect, whatever the belief over short terms trends and outcomes.

https://www.sadc.int/themes/economic-development/trade/

@Yachtmaster Thank you for that. I didn't want to state it until i was absolutely sure. Do you know which interview please?

I don't want to push my view point too hard but one would have to feel very confident that Indico has every chance of delivering as a minimum circa 40-50m 2P reserves, which equates to 12-15m 2P reserves for Amerisur.

As a comparison, prior to the Indico-1 find the company's 2P reserves were running at around 17m post 2018 production. So nearly double and the block has only just started to be explored.

But if it pushes to the 70-100m region, and let's face it there is a reason why the company has used those figures, then we are talking around 21-30m in 2P reserves from a 3 well drill.

And what does that then say about what Calao-1 and in particular Pavo Real can offer.

In the Core Finace TV interview when asked by MGW about a 2nd rig and the previous plan to drill Sol-1 and Aguila, JW says this ;

Indico-, Sol and Aguila are "independant closures within the same LS3 play but what we are seeing now is bigger accumulations of oil and so the connectivity of those things is what we need to define."

"Aguila and Sol are still very much on the cards but they may actually be connected to the Indico Pavo complex"

The Pavo Indico connection is no surprise because the 22nd Jan RNS states that "prospective resources of 4 to 45 MMBO in the combined Indico-Pavo prospect area." and that;

"Given the potential for combination trapping, the company believes potential resources may be significantly higher at both Calao-1 and Pavo Real-1." At this point I again remind everyone of the JW comment on 300ft oil columns not being isolated.

So again it is being heavily hinted at that Indico, Calao and Pavo are connected. That would tie both into a 300ft and rising oil column, thus substantially widening the Indico play, and we haven't even began discussing Mirlo-1X, which sits immediately next to Indico 3 (North East), and must be on the cards to be in the next phase of drilling (See Feb 19 presentation slide 18)

However, getting back to what JW said, I find it very interesting that he says Sol-1 and Aguila may be potentially connected to the Indico-1/Pavo complex and does not mention Calao-1, even though Calao essentially sits between them.

What all of the data and quotes in these posts demonstrate though is why the order of play is running as it is. I believe if Calao and Pavo-Real come in big then if a 2nd rig isn't already in play then it very well soon will be because there will be plenty of appraisal wells to be going at then.

That is why i am so excited by what Amerisur is going to achieve over the next few years and why the current short term SP events do not matter. The market has not appreciated what the company has already delivered on CP0-5 but it has not even bothered to read into the details that JW and the company have been delivering to the market these last couple of weeks.

If the Indico-1 structure as it stands, (without Mariposa, Calao-1, Pavo Real-1, Sol-1 or Aguila) delivers circa 50m gross 2P reserves, (which given the calculation equates to a circa 30% increase in the depth of the current known oil column) then it will have delivered 25% of what Llanos 34 has achieved in 6.5 years and 80-90 SUCCESFUL wells, and it will have done it with just 3 wells in circa 9 months.

What does that say about the prospectivity of CP0-5 at 5 times larger than Llanos 34.

Amerisur is a steal at these levels because CP0-5 is a very deal.

@JTD et al My take on things.

The Core Finance Tv interview with MGW is very interesting because it is there that JW gives more detail on what the immediate 4 well drill is looking toachieve.

On Calao-1 JW states that it is a step out well in a separate structure. He then says ;

"Just on a structural basis. . . we are looking at around 10m barrels. However, if the play type we are looking at Indico is correct, those could be significantly larger"

These 2 exploration wells, "are important to define the size of the play in this immediate area"

On the next 2 appraisal wells he says this ;

"what we found at Indico was a very thick oil column in a very high quality reservoir but we didn't find an oil water contact. . ." he then pauses for affect.

If we then return to the Proactive article from 12th Feb we see two key statements. Firstly, the key quote from JW that was tweeted by the company;

“You don’t find a 300ft oil column in isolation. It has to be part of a bigger trapping system,”

But the underneath this is a statement in the article that can only have come from the company, although it is not in quotation marks.

"If the oil/water contact point turns out to be, say 40ft lower than 283ft, those reserves will go up to 33mln barrels, but deeper than that can rise to 70mln or even 100mln barrels."

The first part of the statement ties in with the Reserves RNS from 22nd Jan, which said ;

"The 3P number is similarly conservative, and assumes that the OWC is located approximately 40 feet deeper than the LKO already established in the well, i.e. an additional 13.6% of effective oil column."

So for me, whilst i had little doubt, this confirms that the full Proactive statement is quoted from the company.

The company line is that the exploration wells at Calao-1 and Pavo Real-1 are separate structures and are exploration wells that come with risk. However, the statement from JW is clear, "you don't find a 300ft oil column in isolation," especially when it clearly isn't the full depth. So what does that say about the chances of success in these 2 neighbouring structures? This for me is driven home by the statement made on "if the play type we are looking at Indico is correct."

Not many things are certain in life but for me the 'if' and 'could' would be a 'is' and 'should' if he were allowed to say it, because Indico is so damn big.

How big will come when the 2 appraisal wells on Indico are drilled because as the 22nd Jan RNS states, they ;

"will be drilled within the Indico discovery from the Indico pad, with the objective of building production and refining resources and reserves estimates" So they are looking to test the depth of the OWC and push the reserves well beyond even the conservstive 3P set out by McDaniels.

No wonder JW is quoted at the end of the RNS saying "I have never been more excited by, or optimistic about the Company's future."

I'll bet!

I think that the sheer size of the find at Indico-1 has thrown everything up in the air. The block is showing every sign of being far superior to Llanos 34 and that was the best oil find in Columbia in the last 30 years. If Calao-1 and Pavo Real 1 come in, then the partnership will suddenly be looking at 4 oil fields.

The messages released by the Columbian government also demonstrates that it is clearly on their radar as it should be. Columbia oil production is some 15% off its 2015 peak. Couple that with lower oil prices and the affect on te country's coffers is magnified. So a big oil find such as that at Indico-1 is not going to be allowed to be developed too slowly. It's all very well sitting on an unexplored block for 10 years but its something else entirely when your first 2 wells producing over 8,000 bopd and you are talking 30m of reserves from just 1 well. This is amplified by the fact that the rig company Estrella makes a very big point of advertising the Indico-1 discovery on its website. It is a very big deal for Columbia.

Also, ONGC may be a big player and may be the operator but the Columbian president name dropping shouldn't go unnoticed in the MGW interview with JW. JW speaks to him on a regular basis. They are in contact. So perhaps JW's influence reaches far further than ONGCs in Columbia.

All of that aside, for me CP0-5 is a very big story even for ONGC and I expect that at least 1 additional rig will be seen this year. That opens up the possibility of greatly expanding the 6 well programme there this year but more importantly opening up things for a really big push in 2020.

@50cc Good morning. Yes I can certainly understand why Amerisur would be pushing to increase the rig count.

As a comparison, Geopark who are for me an aggressive E&P company, commenced drilling on Llanos 34 around April 2012, at which point no oil had been discovered on the block. By the end of 2013 they had drilled 13 wells and discovered 4 new oil fields.The most favoured being Tua and Tigana, and it is they that were the main focus in 2014.

That year there were a further 11 successful wells on Llanos 34.

So to summarise, Geopark in their first 21 months of operatorship on Llanos 34 drilled circa 13 wells, then followed this up with 11 wells in 2014.

ONGC as operator of CP0-5 has been far slower on the uptake with just 2 wells drilled in roughly the same 21 month period. This on a bloack which from what I can see is a far more prospective because it is ;

a. 5 times bigger
b. Struck a far bigger discovery than anything Llanos 34 has been able to achieve.
c. Shows characteristics of both the Llanos LS3/Guadalupe play AND the Corcel and Candelilla fields in the Guatiquia block, which is closer and brought home bopd far more in line with Indico-1.

Even at this early stage it is clear that CP0-5 is going to deliver the sort of levels of success that Llanos 34 but the rewards should be far greater.

Llanos 34 currently running at 200mmbbl of gross reserves and growing. Indico-1 has delivered 15% of that on just 1 well.

It should be noted that during those first 2.5 years of drilling, oil prices were well over $100 per barrel, so the incentives were very strong. Today oil is circa $60. However, that still offers very healthy returns and ONGC have the necessary leverage to be able to drive substantial drilling on the block.

Given what I hav found out from this comparison it would be criminal if ONGC did not sanction at least 1 further rig this year because they are clearly sitting on a lot of oil. So that being the case I fully expect it to happen.

Then a follow it up perhaps next year with further rigs as new oil fields open up, just like Geopark. As Llanos 34 has demonstrated and JW has strongly indicated in the Proactive piece, there will be multiple oil fields of varying strength within the CP0-5 block. That will warrant multiple rigs working at the same time, and to top it all off the seismic is all done. JW himself stated that they have some infills to do but that is all. The targets are there.

John Wardle CEO “You don’t find a 300ft oil column in isolation. It has to be part of a bigger trapping system,”

Exactly. Bring on those additional rigs.

https://www.epmag.com/geopark-completes-llanos-basin-well-colombia-708911

Amerisur have quite rightly employed the neighbouring block Llanos 34, as a basis for educating investors on the potential that sits within the CP0-5 block. In their Feb presentation they also talk about its proximity to Corcel and Candelilla fields in the Guatiquia block.

With this in mind I decided to take a closer look at Llanos 34 oil fields and in particular the fields discovered in the first 2-3 years.

Having reviewed all the oil discoveries from May 2012 (Max field) through to the end of 2014, I have found the following ;

1. By Dec 2013 Llanos 34 was producing 10,945 bopd from 11 wells at an average of 995 bopd.

2. The largest single well at that time was Tigana-1 in Dec 2013, which came in at 1,469 bopd, later increased upto circa 2,000 bopd. All other wells ranged between 600-700 and 1,200 bopd.

3. By the end of 2014 Llanos 34 had 72m gross 2P reserves with the vast majority of production (19,300 bopd) coming from the "world class" Tigana (7 wells) and Tua fields (7 wells). That's 1,380 bopd per well.

4. Tigana field has the lowest water cut at levels close to Indico-1. The others came in at between 6-10%.

As it stands today Llanos 34 is producing 70,000 bopd per day from between 80-90 active wells and has over 200mmbbl of reserves as of Q1 2019. In Q4 2018 Geopark and its partner successfully drilled the Tigui Sur 1 well, which along with Tigur 1 produces around 1,900 bopd with 6% water cut.

In addition "seven new wells were tested and put on production, including Tigana 5, Tigana Norte 10, Tigana Norte
11, Tigana Norte 12, Tua 11, Jacana 14 and Jacana 19, which are currently producing approximately
6,800 bopd gross.

CP0-5 has drilled just 2 wells thus far but they average 4,150 bopd and Mariposa-1 has been on LTT for 21 months and is still producing at 3,200 bopd. That's some 2,650 bopd larger than the biggest single discovery on llanos 34 in its first 2.5 years of activity.

From what I can see Llanos 34 is so productive because of the sheer number of wells that can be drilledacross a large oil field and the success rate of those wells (+90%). Buoyed of course by the low OPEX ($4 per barrel) and the ease with which the oil can be exported.

NOTE - As of their August 2018 presentation Geopark were still reporting +95% success at Llanos 34.

Llanos 34 is 82,200 acres in size. CP0-5 is 492,350 acres. So almost 5 times as big, and CP0-5 is already demonstrating a field over half the length of Llanos 34 entire fields. There are other factors to consider and the oil game isn't always straight forward, but as starts go it is quite something compared to Llanos 34.

Llanos 34 is the largest oil discovery in Columbia in the last 30 years, so what I ask does that make CP0-5 then?

https://geopark-ir.prod-use1.investis.com/~/media/Files/G/Geopark-IR/press-release/2018/4q2018-operational-update.pdf