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@Ophidian Your theory has sparked my interest, so I decided to do a little more digging.

We have of course talked about this previously in our search for the Vametco buyout, but it perhaps takes on another form now.

Whilst there are several farms within the Brits Project, there are only really 2 that are of major interest at this time.

Uitvolgrond Portion 2 - Caber Trade and Investment - Mining Right application in dispute
Uitvolgrond Portion 3 - Great 1 Line - Prospecting Right Granted.

As a reminder, Portion 3 sits directly next to Vametco and is where the drilling campaign conducted in 2018, has taken place. There are no drill holes shown on Portion 2.

The dispute over Portion 2 is detailed in the Admission Document from November 2017. It is a legacy item purchased as part of the Brits Project from Sable Minerals, a move I remember highlighting as being rather strange at the time. There have been no further announcements from the company on this subject. Given the fact there is a dispute that is affecting a Mining Right application, i take it as read that the company must update the market if there is a material change in the circumstances of this dispute. No update means no change.

Several things stand out for me.

1. If the company intends mining Portion 3 then they need to apply for a Mining Right and given that they haven't even engaged a consultant to produce a Mine Plan, the whole process unnecessary at this time because we are talking minimum 4 years to achieve it. So why has the company conducted the drilling programme only on Portion 3?

2. The Mining Right at Portion 2 cannot be all that important because a financial settlement could easily be achieved given the advantages the near surface material would bring to the company. Yet we have had no movement on this whatsoever. So it can't be critical. Plus there is no delineation of the resource currently taking place, a process that is lengthy, having been carried out for most of 2018.

So knowing the above to be true, how can the company then say in its Q3 Update ;

"Phase 3 will also benefit from advancement of the Brits Vanadium Project, which has yielded encouraging drilling results."

The only way that can happen is if the company has found a way to bypass the need for a Mining Right. Furthermore there is little point talking about the advancement of Brits benefiting Phase 3 at Vametco, when the company hasn't even started the lengthy regulatory process to achieve it. So there has to be another plan in place.

That is my opinion only. It may be that you end up being right. I just don't feel that additional mining resource is what is needed at this time.

@Coffeecups I see what you are saying but the reality is that BMN don't need another mine, what they need is more processing. They have the highest grade largest resource in the world and are about to announce a maiden resource at Brits that should take their minerals reserve to nearly 90m tons.

Mining it is fairly straight forward but processing it is the key and achieving it quicker than they would if they had to wait for regulatory approvals.

So for me its a no but as long as Mapochs is in dispute, then Vanchem has to remain on the table as an option for brownfield. That said the evidence points to further expansion at Vametco backed by front end processing from somewhere else.

@Richken Without wishing to burst you rbubble in any way, the figure is "upto" $170m and was designed as a showpiece statement for the Ramaphosa investment drive. Therefore, the bigger the figure the better it looks for everyone, so it will in my view include all top end estimates.

I am sure it includes Phase 3 of Vametco (last communicated as $15m) at the very least and the full $10m for the electrolyte plant.

So that's circa $125m.

The other $45m or so for me will be associated with a potential investment in a VRFB plant, works associated with Brits, and the brownfield acquisition and refurbishment, even if said elements end up being adjusted, because it is upto $170m.

What is more noticeable is what is not currently included and that is the last known build cost for Mokopone, which was circa $300m. Unless FM is telling porkies, Mokopone isn't being developed in line with the PFS inside the next 3 years.

The other

@Ophidian What do you make of all that then? A feedback judging panel involving two panelists that are involved in corporate finance and debt raises for miners.

@CoffeeCups Not a great deal. The last known action that I saw was the Competition Commission Tribunal hearing date from October 2018, of which IRL were a party with Vanchem.

I took it to mean that Vanchem were fighting the plans that IRL had because they would lose their contracted right to ore from Mapochs, but considering they are as far as i can see, still in business rescue, i find that a little odd.

It is almost impossible to find anything recent on Vanchem, which I find bizzarre given they are now a member of Vanitec. That comes with a cost and makes little or no sense if the business isn't producing anything.

May I ask why you asked?

@Jamiejojo Ever since the days of the Vametco deal I have been repeatedly stating that BMN operate to a minimum 5 year plan. 5 year corporate plans are common place in businesses have been involved in. They tend to be more detailed front end and they evolve, but there is nevertheless a plan for the next 5 years.

BMN started demonstrating their forward planning when they forced Lemur to initiate the purchase of the Brits Vanadium Project from Sable Minerals back in June 2015.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150619/pdf/42z9br6hsgl6bm.pdf

They employed Lemur money to secure the project by paying $450k of the $600k purchase price ahead of BMN taking final control of Lemur. When we see what the company then went on to achieve by securing Vametco, then consider the expansion plans that have been communicated and where Brits fits in with all of that, it is clear that a long term plan is in play here and it is thus far very successful.

From the list you have created I would park the Mokopone license and the BE element for now and concentrate purely on that 10,000 mtv production.

From what I have just demonstrated above, having lived and breathed the whole process, it is absolutely clear to me that the path to 10,000 mtv is known and that it is secured. This company will reach its goal.

At the SA Investor Conference FM stated very clearly that the company planned to spend upto $170m over the next 3 years. Given the 10,000 mtv is a medium term goal that was communicated in the Annual Report from 29th June 2018, it is with great certainty that I say that the 10,000 mtv production was included, thus giving us our definitive outside cost and timeframe.

For a company currently making over £65m a year in profits with a scaled plan to reach 5,000 mtv, a milestone that takes them to their 10,000 mtv medium term goal, $170m holds little fear for me.

So the funds are there, the plan is there and the assets are clearly there because thus far, BMN only ever bring out into the public domain what they know they highly likely will achieve.

Anything too far beyond that is for me unnecessry at this time, particularly when we consider what a defining year this should be for BE. I take great heart knowing that the road to 10,000 mtv is fully paved, almost fully paid for, but that the rewards that come with it are yet to be dished out.

As far as i can see, with the staged expansions to come, BMN the miner should continue to deliver £60-80m profits right through the next 5 years, even if V prices retreat to the $45 per kg level that SP Angel suggest.

Please note SP Angel figures used merely as an example.

Whilst that value plays out, we have time to learn and appreciate where BE is heading and what exactly it is financially capable of achieving along the value chain.

BMN and its £60-80m profits on a mining ratio is a conversation over circa PE 10 to 20. BMN + a fully understood BE, will be something else entirely.

My opinion only of c

Here are some commenst from Mr Hamilton back in January 2018. I wonder what he would have to say in January 2019.

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/bank-montreal-bullish-research-note-vanadium-11-8-no-target/

@Loudspeaker the heat is definitely being turned up in the vanadium furnace.

The following key line from the SP Angel Morning market report (courtesy of pb940) only add more fuel to that fire.

"The market for vanadium feels likely to see further and potentially dramatic tightening over the next few months."

Things are going to start getting very busy aorund here soon.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/sp-angel/30540/morning-market-pulse---iron-ore-prices-rise-following-vale-dam-disaster-30540.html

Yes indeed, just spotted that. The plot thickens. Why is Colin Hamilton the MD of BMO Capital Markets moderating the Q&A?

@Ophidian That's a good spot. Can you direct me to the right time and day please.

It is interesting that FM is taking part in a one to one Vanadium Q&A on 5th Feb (12.15pm) with the Managing Director of BMO Research Colin Hamilton acting as his moderator.

That being the very same BMO that became BMN's joint broker on 13th December 2018.

What are you up to FM and Co?

Incidentally, Minister Mantashe is giving 3 speeches over the course of the 4 day event with one entitled "Opening a New Chapter in SA's Mining Industry" (6th Feb at 9.05am) Another one worth adding to the diary.

He is on at exactly the same time as Robert Friedland of Ivanhoe who is on the main stage. I wonder who will draw the largest audience. Perhaps FM will make it to that main stage one day too.

https://www.miningindaba.com/ehome/283869/agenda-2019/#

@Sharesahoy I am under no dobt whatsoever that an acquisition will take place and it will come sooner rather than later. If you push me on it I think the announcement will come inside Q1.

Despite the reported abundance of available brownfield assets, I am absolutely sure that there will be regulatory hoops to jump through, such as the Competition Commission and/or a Section 11. That will take time to complete. Then said brownfield assets need to be upgraded, refurbished, staffed etc etc. So when the company states that they are planning to expand to 10,000 mtv in the medium term there is potentially a lot to do post announcement to achieve that target.

It should also be noted that the company first starting saying "10,000 mtv in the medium term" as far back as 29th June 2018, when the 2017 Annual Report was released.

Medium term to me is 2-3 years and we have already had nearly 7 months of that.

I would also like to repeat what i said earlier, the access to the cashflows is key here. The company has as far back as June 2018 being stating that they have a plan to expand to 10,000 mtv in the medium term, and yet they were continuing to look at opportunities depsite liking what they see (FM Proactive interview Oct 2018). Now here we are in late Jan 2019 and i am supposed to believe that the exercise isn't already completed, given the indicated time line and production expectations communicated 7 months ago.

The plot thickens even further when one appreciates that the "brownfield acquisition" has been on the the company presentations since at least February 2018. So nearly a year.

The last time BMN starting talking about brownfield acquisitions was in November 2015. By May 2016 they were buying Vametco.

This time around they aren't strapped for cash, nor is it make or break, it is about timing and making the best use of the resources available the company, and there are no better resources than the Vametco cash flows and its SA vanadium production orientated management team.

@CoffeeCups To clarify, I am taking it that you are referring to the BEE/landowners element of Brits Uitvolgrond Portion 3 and not Sable Minerals. If so then that only goes to solidify my position that there will be a change of ownership along the way, which of course makes perfect sense because just like Vametco, it is the easiest way to make greater corporate in-roads into the ownership and control of SA vanadium producing assets.

Fantastic find pb940. Just 2 years ago we had to suffer the ramblings of the self interested driven Minister Zwane at Mining Indaba. Jump forward to 2019 and now the event will be welcoming Ramaphosa and his drive to increase investmet in SA.

I look forward with great interest to what he will say have to say about progress in the regulatory arm of the government and his understanding of such things as battery metals.

It did not go unnoticed that during the near hour long media briefing at Davos, Ramaphosa made it his business to thoroughly expand on each answer, depsite the fact that he had referred the main answering to other delegates on the panel, which included ministers Radebe, Gordhan and Patel. Everything about this new government and the investment drive in play, is being driven hard by Ramaphosa himself. So his speech at Mining Indaba will be well worth listening too.

I disagree. The 31st Oct update was specific to Indico and I expect something along the same lines with calao-1. Otherwise shareholders are left guessing if 'expected' became a reality or not, which given the significance of this drill, the fact it is the only drill on the horizon right now, and that is kicks off a 4 drill campaign, for me requires an update to the market.

It should also be noted that thus far there has been no communication from the company regarding the Section 11 change of ownership for Brits. That particular approval is what the company was supposedly waiting on before they "begin delineating the resource."

Of course there are ways around this because BMN is interwoven with our old friends Sable Minerals and technically they can allow any amount of delineating to take place whilst the Section 11 is awaited. So there is little risk there. However, given the regulatory process involved, it would be wise for the company to update their plans on this, so shareholders can better understand the project moving forward.

That said, a quick look at the plans enclosed on the Brits Project on the company website, one can see that there is around 1km of ground between the current Vametco mine outline and the boundary to Uitvolgrond Portion 3. So there is perhaps, as Ophidian say, ample room to expand that Mine Works Programme without awaiting further regulatory clearance.

Two final point on this. If there is already a mine in production and it is looking to extend its footprint onto the neighbouring property, to carry out exactly the same operatiosn it is already conducting, does that really require the same Mining Right application to take place. When it was Sable Minerals, it was a new company with a brand new mine. Now it is not. Doe sthat therefore make life a lot easier?

Lastly, Uitvolgrond Portion 3 is 'only' 65% owned by BMN. There is therefore scope to buy out the remaining 35% including the existing BEE partner, replace said partner with the existing like minded BEE partner at Vametco, and up the company's stake to 70% in the process (I assume BMN would honour the new Mining Charter from the off).

Vametco and Brits is clearly moving towards being 1 very large mine, so why introduce an unknown BEE partner, when you have worked so hard to replace the previous one and fine tune the strategic thinking in the asset that is key to your whole business. I therefore expect movement on this as Brits comes to the fore.

PS I can feel your excitement building from here

@Ophidian You make a very interesting point.

Here's something that may just blow your chemical enhanced mind. The Brits project data has been updated on the company website with diagrams of exactly where the compnay has been drilling.

If you look closely at the diagrams you can see that the exact locations of the drillholes.

Lets remind ourselves of the Q3 update ;

Vametco resource "13 drillholes have been sampled and submitted for assay."

Brits "26 drillholes, totalling 2,818.43 metres, have been completed over the two phases"

If you count the white dots on the diagram you will see that there are 13 drill hole locations along the existng upper seam strike of Vametco. That means the 2 drillholes shown within the marked orange boundary are infact part of the Brits campaign, which as you can see is heavily concentrated on the boundary to Vametco.

The most interesting part of this is the fact that the existing Mining Right application for Brits is for Uitvolgrond Portion 2, but the drilling has alll take place on Portion 3. So whatever the perceived need for a Mining Right may be, the company feels it is best served focusing on the farm right next to Vametco, which always made sense in my head even though i knew the Mining Right was next door.

I would remind everyone that the previous data showed an even spread of drill holes planned across Uitvolgrond Portions 2 and 3, but that was from soemtime ago.

So yes you make a very valid point and the data certainly supports your argument.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/brits-vanadium-project-2/

@Megan The compnay stated less than 1 week ago that Calao-1 is expected to spud before the end of January. It is highly unlikely that such a statement would have been reiterated if it weren't the case.

Therefore, we are entitled to expect an RNS over the course of this week saying just that. Then the clock starts ticking.