Member Info for big-blue

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[they'll be laughing at that one in Whitehall]

I'm half/half Easy J and IAG because, as another poster previously pointed out there is no correlation between the stocks or there respective market sectors. The EU being amber is hurting Easy J much more than US being amber is hurting IAG. Possibly because the unlocking of EU by the EU was anticipated so the UK amber list is sending the signal that there was no intention to open up travel in the first place and the joke of the green list, the Falklands?, kind of says it all. I need about 7% with Easy J to break even which will be more than surpassed when this idiot amber list is dealt with, just have to sit on hands.

For the US and IAG, UK is at level 3 for the US, 'avoid all but essential travel' and that is not expected to change soon so the IAG sp is at a good stable base given the virtual lockdown between the US and UK travel. That has been priced in by the look of it and seemed stable at the upper 190s, then the amber list fiasco for EU begins and the drop is to the lower 190s as BA and the other IAG airlines would expect to pick up well with the EU opening up. When the full details of the EU opening up air travel is known I expect that will put the IAG back in the high 190s, more likely into the low 200s assuming there isn't a heap of difficult obstructions we cannot foresee. There shouldn't be because this is commission led and therefore should be one happy clappy family event! For those expecting a lower drop for IAG I can not see a circumstance to push it lower as the travel situation is about as restricted as it gets across the board and can only improve from here*.

*Posters may not cut and paste that last statement in the coming days as things get worse and worse!

It is possible, on reflection, that Downing St expected that all the PCR costs and self-isolation would be a bigger deterrent to travel than has been the case. So ending the legal restriction and apparently allowing free travel with return leg caveats should have produced positive spin, in that sob story cases headlined on the BBC would be allowed travel but the desired border continued lockdown would be maintained but just without the legal bit. That has back-fired in a major way and ended up with opposite spin and the lockdown lobby now in the open saying nobody should be travelling except to the countries that have bunged the biggest brown paper bags in the officials sweaty palms, of course that is not true but a satirical statement.......

And I still hold that the opening up without restrictions is still under the EU timetable. Qualification? Well we knew that the EU was to agree on the opening up of free travel in the EU May 19th and the delay in UK including EU in it's green list looked like coinciding with that. As we now know, this opening up of EU is not quite what it seems. There is now delay waiting for the details and individual countries are going to be able to set their own entry requirements in terms of requiring tests, or not. So when Mr Chaps was been pressed on when the UK's green list would be expanded he was flapping saying we have to wait. For what? The correct data is already there in the EU countries and the US as the CEO of Easy Jet and others keep pointing out. So what are we waiting for? With all I know of the control mechanisms put in place post Brexit for the EU to remain in control of the UK, the only reason I can see for the UK delaying is that we are holding back for the full details of the EU regulations so that out travel rules can be aligned with the EU. Obviously this can not be stated openly and publicly and this is why we now have a horrible mess with the traffic light system, increased hostility in government [with Latin phrases being thrown left right and centre] and real concern in the sector as being reflected in share prices.

Boris must re-shuffle and remove these Europhiles from government - come on Boris, carpe diem!

The continuing awful mess over amber list hammers travel stocks more. Why was there an amber list if it is supposed to be a no go? This is a terrible mess Downing St has got itself into. I suspect many investors are expecting travel to be made illegal again as the lockdown lobby within Downing St continue to crush all other options. This is starting to look very serious where real damage is going to be done to travel related businesses.

The travel minister was simply saying this morning that people have to wait for a slow opening up. Holding out updating the green list until June will do immense damage to the sector, not least my share prices.

Note the price of the shares bought buy BA compared to the recent historic levels. Wow, how lucky to randomly do the purchasing when the price just coincidentally drops off the cliff. Gosh, wish I was that lucky with the timing of my share buys.

Huh!

of course, now we have become zombified to expecting the 'dips', the exact opposite will happen for 6 weeks. Those iis have to milk the pis to make up for lost divies somehow!

Wrong? Moi? Never! I have all the right predictions, just not necessarily in the right order. Nobody foresaw the redefinition of the amber list as it has occurred, there was not a hint. Why and where this has come from I suspect has taken a lot of people by surprise. All will be revealed, just have to sit on my hands and wait and not day trade this. Far to unpredictable now.

Seems the yanks have pulled things back a bit for the sp. Fingers crossed there is a full U turn and US and all EU put on green list whilst PCR tests are outlawed for travellers.

Never happen, look over the last 48hrs and then tell me, no way!

Oh I get it - -you think only exclusively related IAG should be commented, in that nothing else in the world is in anyway linked or connected. I see now. Of course, nobody holding IAG has the slightest interest or holds any stock in any other stock connected to the same sector or indeed has any interest in any information that happens to be in the same sector.

Mixed messages coming out of UK government in the last 24hrs and doubling of inflation hasn't helped. Just another day in the markets, you never know. IF, a big IF, but if there hadn't been the sudden statement that amber really means red over the evening, then it should have gone OK, although I don't see why the EU list is not being published straight away. US issue?

Why wasn't this amber definition made clear as the list was published. People booked up Portugal by the thousands - not a word. People turned up at the airports on the 17th May. Not a word. Now we are told there should be no travel and that it is dangerous.

No, I certainly didn't see that coming. The Easy J drop indicates something a bit more serious is in the air.

Frustrating, but just have to sit on the hands a little longer.

"(Sharecast News) - European Union countries agreed on Wednesday to ease Covid-19 travel restrictions on non-EU visitors ahead of the summer tourist season, two EU sources said according to Reuters.
The sources reportedly said that ambassadors from the 27 EU countries approved a European Commission proposal from 3 May to loosen the criteria to determine "safe" countries and to let in fully vaccinated tourists from elsewhere in the bloc.

Brussels will release a new list of countries this week or early the next."

Why the wait for the list? Looks like I'll be sitting on my ****ing hands for another 2 ****ing weeks before I can off load this ****ing piece of ****ing **** **** share.

What a precise explanation, many thanks, err I think?!?!

Easy J getting battered buy the stupid mixed messages on a day it should be flying in the other direction with the formal EU opening up to travel statement. Unless the mixed messages has screwed things up so much, the UK is not going to be on the EU's green list from the start. What numpties we have running the show!

Oh dear marab, apart form the fact the BBC is nothing more than a mouthpiece for EU propaganda if you think that leaving the EU is going ahead without a very significant fight back by the EU to take back what they believe they had full possession of then you are in for some big surprises in the next couple of years. I've been in the thick of it within the commission and seen and heard it myself.The commission owns the goods and chattels of all those who signed up for the club, that is the deal. There is no going back it is permanent. The pretence of democratic process has resulted in the UK trying to go it alone. That is not allowable in their eyes. We no more have choice over our destiny today than we did 5 years ago because every single step we try to take will be challenged one way or another. Due to covid there hasn't been much opportunity for it to be shown. There are many very well placed people for at least a generation prepared to institute the EU diktats within the UK and where they fail then the operation is to screw up as much as possible until the UK is crawling on hands and knees begging Europe to take us back. And when the won't happen, then the bullets and shells will begin, although the collectivism of the EU will just disintegrate when that happens as few nation states have the stomach for all out war and most want to be free of the EU in the first place.

Explain how the UK can put Australia and New Zealand on the green list when those countries are not accepting arrivals from the UK, yet the UK does not put equivalent EU countries or zones or islands on the green list with the same circumstances, or even where the countries are actually prepared to accept arrivals like Greek islands? Give me a rational explanation.

I only need to post a rebuff on one item on porsha's menu as an example of how much weight should be given to her other offerings. India travel ban.

This one is from 22nd April
https://qz.com/1998580/will-other-countries-copy-the-uks-india-travel-ban/

and this one from just a few days ago
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/eu-countries-urged-to-halt-non-essential-travel-from-india-in-view-of-covid19-101620864467966.html

Eventually EU is catching up, but it took the EU a long time, just like with everything else. Also, the UK infection and death rates continue to slide down the table as the pandemic reaches further and further. Remember, UK figures are for real and most likely overblown due to the blanket reporting method. As for EU numbers, the truth will come out in the not too distant future!!!!!!!!!!

"Quite simple really no confusion"

I've heard of some pretty ambitious attempts to spin a negative news story in the positive, but you marab may have taken the trophy with that post. You should get yourself a job at the commission, they pay good money to people for verbal diarrhoea like that.

For clarity, this is the pickle.
UK should have defined it's own green list on it's own terms. However, because the EU was to formally and in a unified way take control of the opening up of travel within the EU a few weeks latter, Europhiles thwarted the UK green list to delay opening up of travel to keep it in sync with the EU. If the UK had control over it's own list then the very odd anomaly of Australia & New Zealand being on a green list despite them not actually accepting UK arrivals. Most of the EU should therefore logically have also been on the UK green list even if the nation states like Germany and France were not allowing UK arrivals. To leave off EU states but allow on Australia & New Zealand is prima facia evidence that the UK's green list was constructed according to EU timetable, not the UK independent measures.

That is why the amber list has become very confusing now. The EU countries were not allowed to go on red lists, the commission forbid this, so the half-way house between red and green is used to 'park' EU countries whilst waiting for the formal go ahead from the EU commission to open up travel across Europe and treating the UK as if it was still owned by Europe. There was to be some grandiose statements from Brussels along the lines of look how good the EU is including the UK on the EU's green list, propaganda points blah, blah.

But it is all going a little pear shaped thanks to the Indian variant putting up some obstacles applying retrospective caution. Also individual countries within the the EU have been going ahead with their independent declarations accepting tourists ahead of the commissions centrally organised diktat.

And now the definition of what the temporary amber list actually means has got different arms of government in a confused mess. So instead of the EU saying travel is open again, UK included, and UK saying major revision to green list, based on the scientific evidence from EU, this Friday [estimate], we instead have a garbled message where even if the government did want to add EU to UK's green list, it would now require a significant U turn. Indeed, this last minuet ****-up in the narrative might even result in the EU saving face and NOT putting UK on green list citing the Indian variant. It would keep the propaganda nice and clean for internal EU politics.

And this is the problem with the UK going forward with one group of people applying one policy diktat from outside the UK and another group trying to apply independent UK policies.

On Saturday when the Portuguese minister gave out the 19th as the date for the announcement, I assumed it would be the day to cash in big time at least on Easy J. What a difference a few media hours and mixed signals makes.

Another bloody mess. Come on Boris, booting out Cummings didn't fix the problem, you need a deep reshuffle and need to kick out anybody that takes instructions from the EU rather than the UK.

The debate marab is getting more confusing, maybe deliberately so. being debated on R4 at this moment.

..... and with NY opening up today there will be other pressures to move the US to green. Although that is not in the headlines at the moment.

Consequences of mixed messages and the negatives impact on opening price. No idea what time the EU statement will be made but I expect that to help pick up the sp, but now set against the amber negative statements from the UK rather than announcing moving some EU destinations to green, not sure whether the 10%+ will happen in one go. Might require a couple of hard nudge days, but I cannot see how the UK could possibly hold out all the way to June before amending the list. There will be hundreds of thousands voting with their feet and booking holidays anyway knowing that the the countries will turn green before the return leg anyway (guilty)!

Dumping Cummings et al has not stopped the wars raging in Downing Street. But then again he wasn't the actual problem. It has and will be for many years the resident Europhiles across government, local authorities, business and quangos. And now the EU has decided that travel for tourism is to restart, the UK is expected to comply without question. Almost all you can hear with the argument over what does 'amber' mean, stop or go, is initiated by those following the diktat of the latest directive from the commission. Where was this confusion over the last week or so? Exactly, it has only appeared out of thin air in the last 24 hours in sync with the new EU directives being rubber stamped today.

I've warned before, expect a lot of this in the future in every single aspect of the UK and with covid being removed as a distraction the campaign for real to overturn British independence will get underway - it will get ugly and there will be live ammunition involved. This argument over amber lists pulls back one stone, and just look at the squirming cats in the political bag. Cash-in as best you can but volatility is going to be increasingly the order of the day going forward in UK markets.