Member Info for big-blue

If the sector was up 3%, the news would be saying the market has reacted positively to Hanco.ck resigning. As the media very much wanted a scalp, they haven't had one for a long, long time, they will not be interpreting the drop re Hanco.ck.

It is expected today that a review of the amber rules will be announced that allows double vacced people to not have to self-isolate on their return to the UK. Also, a review to bring forward the relaxation of lockdown measures is to be announced but there is no change expected. Meanwhile Merkel is doubling up efforts to isolate the UK and stop UK travel to the EU but she is becoming increasingly isolated as member states are vocal in saying they can make their own rules. Also the new H sec is more inclined to free up lockdown rules including with travel.

Surprised at the dip this morning, one of those events taking place today is spooking the market. Amber rules review is a major positive, lockdown rules remaining until mid July not a big issue so perhaps the big buys are hesitant over Merkels anti-British manoeuvrers. The market sector appears to be moving as a bloc again, shares are stubbornly linked rather than uncoupling allowing for day trade switching which is getting very annoying.

We will see what the day brings.

Slow take up - I presume the big buys are waiting for clarity over the amber rule changes.

Looks like the orders over weekend are sells, which I find a little odd. In about 10 mins we will find out what the iis think and if any large buys are placed. Although we may have to wait for the redefinition of the amber list rules for the proper adjustment up.

I don't like politicians and public figures hounded out by trial by media. It should be under the rule of law or at the discretion of those charged with the office of responsibilities. I've been hoping Boris would reshuffle for a while now - that is the correct way. The whole thing looks like a huge set up - and the video looks so staged and even fake.

The balance of power now changes wrt policy on travel. How quickly the change can be put in practice remains to be seen but I expect a very positive market reaction to the removal of one of the opponents of opening up travel.

The big name to be removed is Gove, minster of the stool! I think he is main obstacle and must go. Now Boris, now is the chance for a major reshuffle and remove these courtiers who are whispering bad advice in your ears. If Boris is the leader, now start leading.

I think Jtan, it is very important because it means the expansion of destinations is not necessarily going to be pegged to a three week review cycle. Therefore the US opening up could drop at any minuet. It is also important in that the sooner they begin opening the sooner they will have the data showing it is viable to allow vacced travellers. I suspect that the covid passport will inevitably be used as coercion to get reluctant people to vacc as is already happening across Europe. Whilst the hysterical libertarians will bounce off the walls screaming hell and the apocalypse, there are many more people wanting to travel with vaccinations than those blubbering on the sidelines about being left out. Many governments got the US empathy philosophy very wrong on this one [all is empathy for peace and love is another faddish Americanism bound to fail like all the other rose tinted theories. If you're not vacced, you names not on the list.]

sounds like amber list changes, details expected Monday

Yeah, like that video is real - it is blindingly obvious it is a fake. Interesting the extent and compliance the media will go to to set someone up for removal form office. It is so obvious this is a coordinated campaign. If a minister should be removed, it should be done through the formal channels. I don't hold with this soviet/chinese/ N korean style public hoax campaigns. It is a bit shameful to see our printed and broadcast media join in with such glee. So how much else do you see in the news that is real? Rather than expose some sort of ministerial wrong doing, all the media has succeeded in doing is remind is that they do engage in organised anti-democratic troll witch hunts.

Yes Teddy, I didn't even reference the Southern hemisphere during winter and of course Aus and N Zealand will be back on line at some point. I'm only a small term smash and grab investor but some people lament too much. When news stories quote industry reps talking about another lost summer, they are referring mostly to their northern hemisphere largely European based market. BA is a true global, and now free of the EU there might be significant opportunities within China. And that is a huge market for growth.

Small cloud on the horizon. You are all forgetting the Autumn market, including the one week school holiday which also includes the weekends. Then there will be the long weekend breaks. What's more, I expect that there will be rules allowing a considerable leeway for family holidays during term time as a one off. I expect the mental health issue to rise strong and the usual bad attitude to term time holidays to be suspended. So the Autumn break could be extended one or two weeks ahead of the normal week, and after. A lot of Southern destinations still have a bit of decent sun in the med. Canaries are reasonably consistent all year round. California, Florida, Vegas, Texas, Mexico.... all viable options and maybe more desirable latter in the year with more tolerable heat levels.

And then there is the Christmas shopping, the skiing and a lot of people with early retirement and redundancy cheques and many tourist markets will simply re-invent themselves for a delayed season. Certainly there is going to be some big names crashing and disappearing. The amount of traffic will not makes everybody rich, but there will be income if people are allowed unrestricted travel. So I would say all is not lost, it will just be reduced a little.

Businesses that rise and respond to a changing market survive and can even prosper. Businesses that just expect it be laid at their feet as ever - fail.

I dumped a large TERN holding to follow deeper in travel stock recoveries a couple of weeks ago. So guess what happened at TERN today?

So, fingers crossed for good amber list rule changes to get my Easy J up [with RR] so I can dump and be ready to buy in IAG ahead of US route news. I've been looking for a decoupling of Easy J and IAG for some time, but all the airlines have more or less been moving as a block. I think the decoupling is about to happen briefly allowing my long awaited switcharoo. However, need to scan the US information and releases. Whilst double vacced UK citizens may not have to quarantine on the return leg, it is all down to when the US will open the routes to UK visitors. EU will be putting a great deal of pressure on the US to stay closed to UK but open to EU. Oh yes they bloody well will be! This is turning back into a political gamesmanship again. Remember when trying to interpret the information, EU will do anything to score points and be ahead of UK. It is critical they do so to create the illusion that Brexit is a failure somehow. They are desperate, they will do absolutely anything!!!

Smithy, a great many promises have been ascribed to the leave campaign. None, like the ones you go on about, were ever made. There was a lot of hope that we could take back control of our self-determination and hence make our own deals in the world. It was always expressed in terms of what we could work to, never about ready off the shelf day one. That idea was quashed by the EU from the off as they sought to diminish Brexit as far as possible rather than grasping the great opportunity for both. The EU refuses to let go and behave toward us, the UK, on the same terms as it does with other countries. It demands to be in control, not to work as partners [with anybody]. Perhaps if the remain campaign had been a little bit more honest about what nasty vindictive back stabbing con artists the commission would turn out to be, maybe a few more would have been scared and bullied into remaining. In fact, all the issues that are arising post transition period, which is a mere 6 months rather than 5 years [we were not even able to discuss trade for 3 years with other potential partners by EU diktat], shows just why we were very correct to get out. Looking from the outside in, we are lucky to have got out, and just in time for the pandemic. The EU will continue to be nasty little bigots towards the UK until the EU itself falls apart. That is in progress as we speak. The political move against allowing UK citizens into the UK proves the point. Is the WHO recommending every country on Earth insists on travellers from Delta countries are put in quarantine? No. It is also as much a political stunt trying to rally the EU back together again for post-covid bullying of anybody who doesn't agree and capitulate to the EU monster. I really do hope that the situation results in BA being spun off and back into UK hands. It is one national airline that does work for a country, ours. We should find a way to get it back before the EU gaze turns to destroying it removing competition to EU carriers that will eventually be amalgamated into EU air [via a new code share to begin with]. I've worked inside the inner circle of these people for a while. They truly believe they rule the world, the other blocks like USA, Russia and China are enemies out to get them, and those signed up to the EU have handed over all political and judicial control and that the commission actually OWNS the good, chattels and people of those 'states' in perpetuity.

Even if the UK opened up all travel everywhere, there is still the problem of the EU's attitude on the political front. This is what Macron said about quarantining UK citizens (but not Irish of course);
"For me one of the issues of discussion is to be really taking coordinated decisions in terms of opening of borders to third countries and on recognising vaccines because at this stage we have to limit this to the vaccines that have been approved by the European medical authority.”
Note the use of the phrase 'third countries'. You are supposed to feel left out and rejected being under that description. You are supposed to feel like you don't want to be described as a third country. Then we have the curious reference to vaccines 'approved by the European medical authority'. This is actually a reference to the UK applying a first dose and then a longer time than tested for for the second dose, up to 12 weeks. This wasn't cleared by regulators or manufacturer. This looks like it is going to be used against us saying that it is unproven in some way whether UK nationals are indeed vaccinated to any extent or whether the vaccination is valid long term. The implication is that if only we had been part of the European vaccination program everything would be alright and fine and indeed we would all be on a lovely hot beach somewhere in the med right now, but we aren't and therefore again the 'being left out' nudge theory is at play.

Be warned, the EU as it emerges form lockdown and has the space will be extremely aggressive in its campaign to FORCE the UK back into the EU and on far worse terms as before with at least several decades of penalties for having left in the first place. Travel restrictions look like the opening salvo. Note how it is a politician phoning around to organise a collective block against the UK, not some independent regulator, WHO, or other epidemiological institute voicing the concern. Expect EU to be calling for reparations over the delta (Indian) variant too. UK will be blamed for bringing it over and then passing it on to EU. Mark it, you heard it hear first.

Shutting the door will have no effect. The variants spread, that is it. The world has got to stop trying to control covid. It can not be done and this experiment to show off how clever clever the scientists and medicine men are is back-firing in a big way. The damage done to the world economics at a person level is far in excess of covid is doing. Why oh why are there no comparisons with other health issues to put it in perspective? If it wasn't for the human race and their pig ignorant vanity, this planet would be quite a pleasant place to live. I am really starting to think I would be better off getting in my spaceship and going to live on a class M orbiting Sirus B, like the Dogan tribe told me about. [err less of the 'good riddance' comments from the back - thank you!!].

I was going to dump all travel stocks this morn during the small tick up but haven't because of the proximity of the amber list rule revision announcement due Monday. We may see green end fmo towards end of the day because if that. However, Monday maybe a full sell off for me for travel stocks as I don't see much potentially for short term gain opportunities. The opening up of travrl has been an awgul farce and not conducive for share trading. Court action needing to be taken to determine what the hell is going on demonstrates this. The one trafing opportunity left after Monday will be the opening up of the US routes for IAG, but there I suspect gains will be limited to the 10%region as speculation has dried up a lot for trading in the travel sector.

I would argue he is the exact opposite of an autocrat.

it is quite obvious bojo is a puppet of a clique. What appeared to be leadership strength opposing T May Brexit deal was as part of a group. It is wise to take counsel, but a leader should never beholden to their advsidors. The backbenches are revolting. Bojo needs to take charge again and do the reshuffle - Gove must go! He is very much a supporter of nudge theory and the government's nudge theory unit that will be behind much of this attempt to modify behavior. It is a fad used by a number of governments that doesn't work and is causing a great deal of damage.

Sector being walked down the hill, a little bit. The green list alterations are small, the big news will be the amber list changes. But everything is now resting on the definition of 'later in the summer' for amber list quarantine free travel. We should know by Monday what that means. I expect the revelation this morning by Chapps on R4 to be picked on over the weekend for closer scrutiny - recognising overseas vacc passports before changing amber list rules.

Government has to respond to the writs issued by Manchester group on Monday. It will be interesting to see whether they try to side step the courts. Answers are also on the same day amber list rules revisions are to be announced. But what Chapps said to day is concerning. Quarantine free travel for UK vacced people is to be dependant on whether other foreign systems can be recognised. Sounds like inventing an excuse ahead of time to me. There is no reason why UK vaccinated people with UK records can not be allowed to travel quarantine free NOW!